The Dynamics of Plug-in Electric Vehicles in the Secondary Market Dr. Gil Tal gtal@ucdavis.edu Dr. Tom Turrentine Dr. Mike Nicholas Sponsored by the California Air Resources Board
Population and Sampling Used PEVs in DMV records ~14000 Invitations letters 4700 Address problem 183 Started 913 Response rate 20% Purchased used 732 Used owners response rate 17% Purchased from lease 52 Finished usable 602 Completion rate 82% of all invitations 13% 2% 1% 1% 1% 7% 4% 4% 4% 33% Nissan Leaf Chevrolet Volt Toyota Prius Plug-in Tesla Model S Ford C-Max Energi Ford Fusion Energi 250 200 150 Model Year 15% Toyota RAV4 EV Ford Focus Electric BMW i3 100 50 28% Mitsubishi i-miev Tesla Roadster 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
We only use households with some experience, our data is old 60 PEV OWNERSHIP TIME 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 June 2015 June 2014
Completion Time and Drop Rates
Who Sells Used PEVs?
New and Used Vehicles in California 7% of HH purchased 2+ cars which is 35% of the new cars 27% purchased 1 car or 65% of the new car purchases 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% % New % Used 66% of the households did not purchase new car in the last 5 years 20% 0% 6Y OLD 5Y OLD 4Y OLD 3Y OLD 2Y OLD 1Y OLD NEW New Vehicle (ICE) Buyers in California Ownership Status by Model Year
120% Share of Leased New PEVs 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% BMW I3 CHEVROLET VOLT FIAT 500E FORD C MAX ENERGI FORD FUSION ENERGI NISSAN LEAF TESLA MODEL S TOYOTA PRIUS PLUG IN TOYOTA RAV4 EV 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Used PEV Pricing
$40,000 Price by Model Year and Purchase Year $36,882 $35,852 $34,990 $33,572 $33,488 $32,226 $31,517 $32,030 $31,453 $31,263 $30,000 $26,815 $26,564 $24,380 $20,000 $19,296 $15,497 $11,463 $20,500 $12,508 $18,375 $13,912 $22,312 $22,779 Priced paid New MSRP Paid Price Minus Incentives Purchased Used on 2013 Purchased Used on 2014 Purchased Used on 2015 $10,000 $- Nissan Leaf, 2011 Nissan Leaf, 2012 Nissan Leaf, 2013 Nissan Leaf, 2014 Nissan Leaf, 2015
$40,000 2012 LEAF Sold in 2015: The OEM Perspective $34,990 $33,572 $36,882 $35,852 $33,488 $31,517 $32,226 $31,453 $32,030 $31,263 Residual Value 33.9% $30,000 $26,815 $26,564 $24,380 $22,312 $22,779 Priced paid New $20,000 $19,296 $15,497 $11,463 $20,500 $12,508 $18,375 $13,912 MSRP Paid Price Minus Incentives Purchased Used on 2013 Purchased Used on 2014 Purchased Used on 2015 $10,000 $- Nissan Leaf, 2011 Nissan Leaf, 2012 Nissan Leaf, 2013 Nissan Leaf, 2014 Nissan Leaf, 2015
$40,000 $30,000 2012 LEAF Sold in 2015: The Seller Perspective $36,882 $35,852 $34,990 $33,572 $33,488 $32,226 $31,517 $32,030 $31,453 $31,263 $26,815 $26,564 Residual Value 47.1% $24,380 $22,312 $22,779 Priced paid New $20,000 $19,296 $15,497 $11,463 $20,500 $12,508 $18,375 $13,912 MSRP Paid Price Minus Incentives Purchased Used on 2013 Purchased Used on 2014 Purchased Used on 2015 $10,000 $- Nissan Leaf, 2011 Nissan Leaf, 2012 Nissan Leaf, 2013 Nissan Leaf, 2014 Nissan Leaf, 2015
$40,000 2012 LEAF Sold in 2015: The Buyer Perspective $36,882 $35,852 $34,990 $33,572 $33,488 $32,226 $31,517 $32,030 $31,453 $31,263 Residual Value 55.0% $30,000 $20,000 $26,815 $26,564 $20,500 $19,296 $15,497 $11,463 $12,508 $24,380 $18,375 $13,912 $22,312 $22,779 Priced paid New MSRP Paid Price Minus Incentives Purchased Used on 2013 Purchased Used on 2014 Purchased Used on 2015 $10,000 $- Nissan Leaf, 2011 Nissan Leaf, 2012 Nissan Leaf, 2013 Nissan Leaf, 2014 Nissan Leaf, 2015
$50,000 2012 Volt Sold in 2015: The OEM Perspective $40,000 $41,900 $41,140 $41,000 $40,280 $39,145 $39,147 $36,328 $33,798 $32,855 Residual Value 48.3% $37,227 $36,171 $34,185 $34,170 $32,789 $32,000 $30,000 $20,000 $25,429 $22,750 $21,576 $26,643 $18,894 $19,738 $28,000 $24,672 $20,871 $28,650 $23,250 $27,488 Priced paid New MSRP Paid Price Minus Incentives Purchased Used on 2013 Purchased Used on 2014 Purchased Used on 2015 $10,000 $- Chevrolet Volt, 2011 Chevrolet Volt, 2012 Chevrolet Volt, 2013 Chevrolet Volt, 2014 Chevrolet Volt, 2015
$50,000 2012 Volt Sold in 2015: The Seller Perspective Residual Value 55.9% $40,000 $41,900 $40,280 $36,328 $41,140 $41,000 $39,145 $39,147 $33,798 $32,855 $37,227 $36,171 $34,185 $34,170 $32,789 $32,000 $30,000 $20,000 $25,429 $22,750 $21,576 $26,643 $18,894 $19,738 $28,000 $24,672 $20,871 $28,650 $23,250 $27,488 Priced paid New MSRP Paid Price Minus Incentives Purchased Used on 2013 Purchased Used on 2014 Purchased Used on 2015 $10,000 $- Chevrolet Volt, 2011 Chevrolet Volt, 2012 Chevrolet Volt, 2013 Chevrolet Volt, 2014 Chevrolet Volt, 2015
$50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 2012 Volt Sold in 2015: The Buyer Perspective $41,900 $40,280 $36,328 $25,429 $22,750 $21,576 $41,140 $41,000 $39,145 $39,147 $37,227 $36,171 Residual Value 68.7% $33,798 $34,185 $34,170 $32,855 $32,789 $32,000 $28,000 $28,650 $27,488 Priced paid New $26,643 MSRP $24,672 Paid Price Minus Incentives $23,250 Purchased Used on 2013 $20,871 $18,894 $19,738 Purchased Used on 2014 Purchased Used on 2015 $10,000 $- Chevrolet Volt, 2011 Chevrolet Volt, 2012 Chevrolet Volt, 2013 Chevrolet Volt, 2014 Chevrolet Volt, 2015
The Price of New Volt Dropped When the first Used Car came out of Lease $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $41,900 $40,280 $36,328 $22,750 $41,140 $41,000 $39,145 $39,147 $33,798 $32,855 $20,871 $18,894 $37,227 $36,171 $34,185 $34,170 $28,650 $27,488 $23,250 Priced paid New MSRP Paid Price Minus Incentives Purchased Used on 2015 $10,000 $- Chevrolet Volt, 2011 Chevrolet Volt, 2012 Chevrolet Volt, 2013 Chevrolet Volt, 2014 Chevrolet Volt, 2015
Residual Value is Between 34% and 99% MSRP Full Price Price Minus Incentives Used Price in 2014 Used Price in 2015 price minus incentives of a 2015 model 2015 price over MSRP 2015 price over Paid as New 2015 price over new car price Nissan Leaf, 2011 $33,572 $ 34,990 $ 26,815 $ 15,497 $11,463 $ 22,779 34% 43% 50% Nissan Leaf, 2012 $36,882 $ 35,852 $ 26,564 $12,508 $ 22,779 34% 47% 55% Nissan Leaf, 2013 $31,517 $ 33,488 $ 24,380 $13,912 $ 22,779 44% 57% 61% Tesla Model S, 2013 $87,217 $ 96,732 $ 87,974 $67,338 $ 105,998 77% 77% 64% Ford Fusion Energy, 2013 $39,235 $ 41,243 $ 35,936 $25,288 $ 36,214 64% 70% 70% Chevrolet Volt, 2012 $39,145 $ 41,140 $ 33,798 $ 24,672 $20,871 $ 27,488 53% 62% 76% Chevrolet Volt, 2013 $39,174 $ 41,000 $ 32,855 $ 24,672 $20,871 $ 27,488 53% 64% 76% Ford C-Max Energy, 2013 $31,665 $ 35,014 $ 29,664 $22,875 $ 29,900 72% 77% 77% Toyota Prius Plug-in, 2012 $38,195 $ 36,211 $ 32,273 $ 24,823 $22,973 $ 27,951 60% 71% 82% Toyota Prius Plug-in, 2013 $38,704 $ 34,259 $ 30,394 $24,412 $ 27,951 63% 80% 87% Toyota Prius Plug-in, 2014 $34,307 $ 31,726 $ 27,759 $27,525 $ 27,951 80% 99% 98%
Odometer Reading at Purchase
Used PEV price is, as in any car, correlated positively with the MSRP and negatively with time on the road and mileage PHEV remains on average a 10.3% higher value compared to the MSRP than BEVs PEVs with HOV access sticker receive $1,430 more than PEVs without an HOV sticker. Table 3: Parameter Estimates for price paid when purchasing used PEV Term Estimate Std Error t Ratio Prob> t Intercept 6091.0037 2070.067 2.94 0.0034* PEV Type [electric] -1958.399 241.1654-8.12 <.0001* PEV age when purchased (years) -2950.497 249.7977-11.81 <.0001* HOV Sticker [No] -715.6517 252.7792-2.83 0.0048* Miles when purchased -0.101106 0.016713-6.05 <.0001* Price paid when new 0.6887149 0.049827 13.82 <.0001* Summary of Fit RSquare 0.602079 RSquare Adj 0.598208 Root Mean Square Error 4642.141 Mean of Response 20814.7 Observations (or Sum Wgts) 520 Analysis of Variance Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Ratio Model 5 1.6759e+10 3.3519e+9 155.5426 Error 514 1.1076e+10 21549476 Prob > F C. Total 519 2.7836e+10 <.0001* Lack of Fit Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Ratio Lack Of Fit 472 1.0422e+10 22080574 1.4172 Pure Error 42 654400057 15580954 Prob > F Total Error 514 1.1076e+10 0.0819 Max RSq 0.9765
Who Purchases Used PEVs?
Household Income of New and Used Buyers $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $- BMW i3 Chevrolet Volt Ford C-Max Energi Ford Focus Electric Ford Fusion Energi Mitsubishi i- MiEV Nissan Leaf Tesla Model S Toyota Prius Plug-in Toyota RAV4 EV Used New
Household Income of New and Used Buyers: By Model Year $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $- 2011 2012 2013 2014 Used New
Household Income of New and Used Buyers: By Purchase Year $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $- Used New
Knowledge and Motivations
Household Fleet HOUSEHOLD FLEET One PEV 2 PEVs with no ICE 2 PEVs With ICEs One PEV and one ICE One PEV and 2+ ICEs 12% 41% 4% 4% NEW AND USED CARS IN THE HH FLEET Used only Mix 39% 12% of the HH 49% 63% 1 2 3+ NUMBER OF VEH IN THE HH
Which of the following statements best describes your interest in acquiring a Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) when you started your search for your {mainpev}? I was very interested in a PEV 24% I did not know PEVs existed 1% I had no interest in a PEV 3% I had some interest in a PEV 11% I was only interested in the specific PEV make/model I purchased 28% I was only interested in a PEV, but considered multiple PEV make/models 33%
What did they look for? When comparing new cars to used cars, throughout your shopping experience for your {mainpev}, were you more likely to buy a new or used vehicle? "Likely to buy used" "Likely to buy new"
What did they look for? When comparing conventional vehicles to plug-in vehicles, throughout your shopping experience for your {mainpev}, were you more likely to buy a conventional or plug-in vehicle? "Likely to a conventional vehicle" "Likely to buy plug-in vehicle"
No Potential Buyers Of New ICEs Who Bought Used PEVs
What about technical knowledge? When buying your {mainpev} did you ask about the condition of its battery? Yes, I received a battery report from an independent tester] 1.4% Yes, I received a battery report from the dealer Yes, I looked at the dashboard display when the battery was fully Yes, I searched online or consulted other sources regarding the 13.3% 15.8% 17.9% Yes, I asked the seller 27.6% None of the above 1.5% No, I did not ask 11.2% No, the car is under warranty 41.8%
When buying or leasing a new {carmain}, or a similar new plug-in car you may (or may not) be eligible for different incentives that may reduce the price of the new vehicle in your area. When buying your vehicle were you aware of any of the "Federal Tax Credit"? Federal Tax by Vehicle Federal Tax by Purchase Year Total Tesla Model S Toyota RAV4 EV Ford C-Max Energi Ford Fusion Energi 2015 2014 2013 Toyota Prius Plug-in Chevrolet Volt 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% No Yes Nissan Leaf 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% No Yes
Dealers are Not Helping An online service (Like ebay or similar. I did not see the car before purchasing it.) Share of "not aware of the federal tax credit" A private owner Other A car dealership of the brand I purchased A used car dealership (including online) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Used PEV Usage
Used PEVs are driven more than New PEVs except LEAFs and RAV4 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Ford Fusion Energi Toyota Prius Plug-in Ford C-Max Energi Tesla Model S Chevrolet Volt Toyota RAV4 EV Nissan Leaf Used Median New Median
But they plug in less Ford C-Max Energi Ford Fusion Energi Chevrolet Volt Toyota Prius Plug-in 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% In the last 30 days we drove the car as a hybrid car, we did not plug it in In the last 30 days we drove the car mostly as a hybrid car, we plugged in 1-4 times In the last 30 days we plugged in our car more than 4 times
What do we know about the secondary market so far Residual value is in the eye of the beholder as Price of new PEVs dropped over time Some buyers had the right knowledge to calculate actual cost BEVs price dropped more than PHEVs HOV access may be part of the story Second owners have lower income than first owners, but not by much. Most of the buyers were looking for a used PEV, very few start with a different car in mind. Knowledge (awareness and education) is most likely the key for a strong secondary market Used PEV buyers are more utilitarian than new PEV buyers as reflected by their high driving need but they may be less committed to electric driving not always plugging in their vehicle
What do we know that we don t know Overall buyers of used PEVs purchased a vehicle that They plan to buy They learn about it in advance Is relatively new with low mileage and in most cases under warranty Is at a relatively low price This may not be the case when the PEV market will contain more older vehicles with high mileage and over the battery and powertrain warranty limit.
Thank you Questions? Gil Tal gtal@ucdavis.edu