19. Chemie-Wirtschaftsseminar Frankfurt, 14 June 27 PD Dr. Christian Dreger, Dr. Stefan Kooths DIW Berlin - Macro Analysis and Forecasting
Key assumptions 27 28 Oil price 6 USD 6 USD Exchange rate 1,32 USD/Euro World trade +7, % +7, % ECB reference rate 4, % (by mid 27) Effective wage rate +1,8 % +3, % Shift effects (prod.) 3 Bill. Euro 2
World economy 9 8 % Growth (developed countries) Growth (World) Unemployment (developed countries) Growth (NIC) Inflation (developed countries) 7 6 4 3 2 1 24 2 26 27 28 3
US growth dynamics GDP, seasonal and working-day adjusted Volume (Bill. US-$) % 33 2, 3,9 3,2 3,3 2,3 3, 31 29 27 2 23 21 19 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 17 1 I Annualized rate Bill. US-$ II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 23 24 2 26 27 28 IV 1 4
Key figures for the US % 3 1-1 24 2 26 27-3 - -7-9 GDP Net public lending (% of GDP) Unemployment Current account (% of GDP) Consumer prices
Japanese growth dynamics GDP, seasonal and working-day adjusted 1 14 14 13 13 12 Volume (Trill. Euro) % -,2,8 1,1 2,9 2,6 2, 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 12 Annualized rate Trill. Yen -1 11 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 23 24 2 26 27 28 IV -2 6
Key figures for Japan % 3 1-1 24 2 26 27-3 - -7 GDP Net public lending (% of GDP) Unemployment Current account (% of GDP) Consumer prices 7
Eurozone growth dynamics GDP, seasonal and working-day adjusted 2 19 19 18 18 17 Volume (Bill. Euro) %,8 1,8 1, 2,8 2, 2,4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 17 1 16 Annualized rate Bill. Euro -1 16 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 23 24 2 26 27 28 IV -1 8
Key figures for the Eurozone Percent 1 4 3 2 1 8 6 4-1 -2 24 2 26 27 28 2-3 -4 GDP Net public lending (% of GDP) Unemployment (rhs) Current account (% of GDP) Consumer prices -2-4 9
German growth perspectives GDP growth rate in % 3, Procent 3, 2, 2, 1, 1,,, -, 23 24 2 26 27 28-1, 1
German growth perspectives: West and East GDP growth rate in % 3, 3, 2, Procent Germany Germany (West) Germany (East) 2, 1, 1,,, -, 23 24 2 26 27 28-1, 11
Technical growth components 3, 2, Percentage points Net Growth Overhang 3, 2, 2, 1, Calendar effect Growth (working day adjusted) 2, 1, 1, 1,,,, -, 2 26 27 28, -, 12
German growth dynamics GDP, seasonal and working-day adjusted 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 Volume (Bill. Euro) % -,2,8 1,1 2,9 2,6 2, 6 4 3 2 1-1 Annualized rate Bill. Euro -2 49 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 23 24 2 26 27 28 IV -3 13
3, Domestic demand robust in 27 Export surplus less important GDP growth rate and components growth shares in % Procentage points Gross domestic product 2, Domestic demand Net exports 2, 1, 1,,, 2 26 27 28 14
Domestic demand more balanced Component growth contributions in % 2, 2, Percentage points Domestic demand Public Consumption Construction Inventory changes Private Consumption Machinery & Equipment Other equipment 1, 1,,, 2 26 27 28 -, 1
Private consumption: Recovery interrupted by VAT increase Consumption of private households (seasonal and working-day adjusted) 32 32 31 Volume (Bill. Euro) % -,1 -,3,3,9,9 1,9 4 3 2 1 31 3-1 -2 3 Annualized rate Bill. Euro -3 29 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 23 24 2 26 27 28 IV -4 16
M&E: Moderate but robust growth Investment in machinery and equipment (seasonal and working-day adjusted) 6 Volume (Bill. Euro) % -,2 2,8 6, 8, 6,4, 2 2 4 3 2 1 1 1 - Annualized rate Bill. Euro I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 23 24 2 26 27 28 IV -1 17
Construction: No longer a growth cruncher Construction investment (seasonal and working-day adjusted) 6 4 2 48 Volume (Bill. Euro) % -1,4-4,6-3,,3 2,9 1,3 3 2 2 1 1-46 -1 Annualized rate Bill. Euro -1 44 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 23 24 2 26 27 28 IV -2 18
Export dynamics of a world champion Exports of goods and services (seasonal and working-day adjusted) 3 3 2 2 Volume (Bill. Euro) % 2,3 8,8 7,1 12,9 8,6 7,6 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 - Annualized rate Bill. Euro -1 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 23 24 2 26 27 28 IV -1 19
Import growth reflects domestic recovery Imports of goods and services (seasonal and working-day adjusted) 3 2 Volume (Bill. Euro) %,3 6,2 6,7 11, 7,7 8, 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 - Annualized rate Bill. Euro I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 23 24 2 26 27 28 IV -1 2
2, Competitiveness still raising Inflation driven by exogenous factors Consumer prices: HVPI Procent 2, Consumer prices Unit labour cost 1, 1,,, 23 24 2 26 27 28 -, -1, -1, 21
Labor market improving, but still calls for action 4 Mio. Persons Procent 14, 4 Employed persons Unemployed Unemployment rate 12, 3 3 1, 2 8, 2 6, 1 4, 1 2, 23 24 2 26 27 28, 22
Productivity whip at work 12 Index (2 = 1) Bill. hours 14 Productivity Unit labor cost Hours worked by employees (rhs) 11 13 1 13 9 12 8 7 12 6 1991 1992 1993 1994 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 11 23
Erosion of the Eastern cost disadvantage finally, but at a productivity distance West Germany = 1 % 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 Hourly Labor Cost GDP per hours worked by employees Compensation of Employees GDP per total employment 1991 1992 1993 1994 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 2 24