The Price is Right How affordable PV changes everything Dr Muriel Watt Chair, APVA IT Power (Australia) & UNSW A2SE Conference Sydney 27 th Feb - 1 st Mar 2013
The Technology International & Australian Trends New Challenges
PV Why not? From milliwatt to Megawatt scale Stand-alone or built into products, buildings Low visual impact, no noise, low emissions, no movement Grid or off-grid Cost effective But a disruptive technology Needs different deployment & institutional arrangements Technology ready for market but market not always ready for technology Lockwood Eco Home Reid Technology IPENZ 2009 Pickering Lecture Series
Module price trends (Bloomberg, 2012)
Green, 2012 Wider spectral range, tandem cells, more electrons per photon, lower losses
Global PV Market Development 8 GW installed in 2009 18 GW in 2010 26 GW in 2011 29 GW in 2012 Installed capacity now > 100 GW C-Si module production costs ~$0.7/Wp and as low as $0.5/Wp
EPIA - Global projections
EPIA, 2012
PV penetration in Germany (Burger, 2011, Gifford, 2012) 40% of demand on summer weekends
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 AUD/Wp Australian module price trends 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Current A$ Typical module price Best price Derived from APVA, PV in Australia 1995 to 2012
Aud/Wp Australian system price trends 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Typical module price Typical small grid system price BOS price
Cumulative MW Australian PV Uptake with 2012 estimates (APVA, 2013) 3000 2500 off-grid domestic grid-connected distributed off-grid non-domestic grid-connected power stations 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MW Possible annual installations 1200.0 1000.0-15% growth in off-grid and distributed markets post 2014 - Flagship + 3 X 50 MW systems by 2020 - No C price post 2013 800.0? 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cummulative MW Possible cumulative installations of ~8GW by 2020 10000 9000 8000 @15% growth = 34 GW by 2030 AEMO: 12-18GW from residential rooftops by 2031 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
EPIA Projections
2011 c / kwh Residential LCOE trends and Grid Parity Projections (APVA, 2011) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Typical current price 0 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Medium LCOE range Annual Grid Electricity - High Base case NPV Grid Electricity - Low Maximum LCOE range Annual Grid Electricity - Low NPV Grid Electricity - High
Commercial Building Market 10% of Australia s GHG emissions 22% of Australia s electricity, increasing to 32% by 2029-30 (ABARE) Source: Lam, 2008
Commercial Sector grid parity projections
Utility-Scale grid parity (APVA, 2012)
Price isn t everything Technology Social Acceptance Successful Deployment Economic Viability Market Access
New Challenges Technical Inflexible coal generation base Networks not designed for distributed generation Electrical / mechanical systems need to be upgraded to electronic age, not just for PV Economic With no specific policy support - no guarantee of connection or buy-back rates Threat of moving c/kwh DUOS & TUOS charges to $/day connection fees Threat of forced gross metering with voluntary NEM price buy-back rate Non-transparent connect costs, procedures & timelines for commercial systems NEM & network savings not passed on Price gap remains for larger-scale systems
New Challenges cont. Social Customers now have DE options Implications for retail market structures Equity and electricity access issues NIMBY for larger systems? Fights over solar access Have and have nots strata titles, renters Regulatory NEM designed for central generation Little incentive to value distributed energy No inherent right or incentive to export to grid Favours own use & smaller systems Own use now being challenged Storage now of great interest Link to electric vehicle rollout?
Need for Distributed Energy Market Separate EE, DSM, PV & other distributed energy options (DE) from NEM Rights and technical standards for connection of DE technologies to the grid Formalisation of the portability of DE services Trading rules and requirements Ancillary service requirements and rewards Appropriate DUOS charges The role and regulation of new energy service providers Pass through of energy and network cost reductions due to DE to the owners or customers generally
Key Questions Is PV unstoppable or will the market crash when subsidies stop? Will customers drop off the grid if utilities make it too hard for PV? How do we design a new regulatory framework?
References APVA, 2011, Residential sector modelling of PV and electricity prices, report for the ASI APVA, 2012, Modelling of Large-Scale PV systems and electricity prices, report for the CEC APVA, 1995-2012, PV Power Applications in Australia. National Survey Reports. Bloomberg New Energy Finance. (2012, April 5). BNEF University - Breakthroughs in Solar Power Burger, B., 2011, Fraunhofer ISE, EEX Transparency Platform, www.transparency.eex.com European PV Industries Association (EPIA), 2012, Global Market Outlook for PV until 2016, May 2012. Gifford, J, 2012, Germany: Record 40% solar weekend, PV Magazine, 29 May Green, M., 2012, The 2012 Semi Roadmap for PV Bigger, Thinner, Faster, Cheaper, SPREE Seminar, UNSW, May 2012. Lam, T., 2008, PV Power System Uptake in the Commercial Building Sector, Final Year Thesis, School of PV & RE Engineering, UNSW. SEMI PV Group, 2012, International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics.