Rogue Valley Clean Cities Coalition Is There an Electric Car in Your Future? Rick Wallace Oregon Department of Energy Columbia Willamette Clean Cities Coalition April 20 th, 2011
Chronology of Federal Legislation Clean Air Act of 1970, created initiatives to reduce mobile sources of pollutants, amended in 1990. Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) enacted in 1975. Alternative Motor Fuels Act of 1988, established incentives to auto manufacturers for alt fuel vehicles. Energy Policy Act of 1992 established regulations requiring federal, state, and alternative fuel provider fleets to build an inventory of alternative fuel vehicles. Energy Policy Act of 2005 emphasized the use of alternative fuels and the development of supporting infrastructure. Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 introduced provisions to increase the supply of renewable fuel sources and raise CAFE standards to reach 35 miles per gallon by 2020.
Gas is Going Up Again Former Shell Oil President John Hofmeister predicted that gasoline prices will reach as high as $5 per gallon by 2012 Goldman Sachs sees oil prices hitting the $100 mark later this year Analysts at JPMorgan Chase forecast that oil prices would surge to more than $120 barrel before the end of 2012.
Petroleum Price & Supply is in for a Volatile Future
Growth in US and Europe Will Slow But Asia, India and Middle East Continues Rapid Growth
Growth Does Not Come Without Consequences Beijing Tibet highway experiences a 62 mile traffic jam that lasts nine days
Unconventional Sources are More Expensive
Other Factors to Consider High demand causes strains on supply Tight supply causes prices to increase Price increases causes our economy to stall In Oregon nearly all of the money spent on oil products leaves the state, over $7 billion in 2008 High reliance on imported oil has national security ramifications Petroleum is a high emitter of GHG
What Can We Do? Don t use fuel; Alternative modes of transport, Telework, Transit etc. Use fuel more efficiently; Hybrids, Idle reduction, CAFÉ standards etc. Use alternatives; Biofuels, CNG, Electricity, Propane etc.
EV s Are One of the Answers What Would Wide Adoption Mean If 5% of vehicles were EV by 2022, how much electricity would be needed to supply them. (About 170,000 vehicles) 12,000 miles / 4.25 miles/kwh = 2,824 kwh 480,080 MWh, Oregon use was 49,178,280 MWh in 2008 Less than 1 percent of our current use at.98%
We will Typically Charge the Cars During Off Peak, 80% Charging Takes Place at the Home
I 5 Electric Highway From Canada to California and Beyond Network of public access EV DC fast charging locations located every 40 to 60 miles Oregon Funding $700,000 8 Locations ODOE, USDOE SEP $2 million 22 Locations TIGER II Grant US DOT 26 Locations EV Project Ecotality Washington Funding $1.32 million WA. Dept. of Com., USDOE SEP $1 million Fed. Trans. Funding EV Project Ecotality
EV Update SEP award from Energy to ODOT for 8 DC fast charge stations, Eugene to Ashland. The U.S. Department of Transportation awarded Oregon with a $2 million grant from the Department's TIGER II program for 22 DC fast chargers installed on Oregon corridors. ODOT approves 4 contractors for installation of above projects.
FHWA gives approval for EV sign Two and half year effort started by ODOT and later joined by WDOT convinces FHWA to change lightning bolt gas pump to the sign at right
EV Update Ecotality 80 residential chargers installed Commercial, pedestal and wall UL approved First commercial install, late April early May 50 contracts signed, 150 under review About 485 locations identified, almost halfway there DC fast charge on backburner, earliest Sept. 2011
Nissan EV Update 471 units sold through March, US About 36 in Oregon 620 reservations 524 signed up for EV Project 360 Orders in Oregon About 70% order with DC fast charge option
PGE parking garage at WTC Portland AC Level 1 A123 Toyota PHEV Prius conversion 1.5 kw AC Level 2 Mitsubishi imiev at a 6.6 kw Blink Station AC Level 2 high power Tesla charging at a Clipper Creek station at 16.8 kw DC Quick Charging Nissan Leaf charging at an NEC/Takasago at 50 kw
The EPA tested the Leaf for an MPGe, or equivalency rating. Formula = 33.7 kw hrs being equivalent to 1 gallon of gas. Tested with the EPA Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule. Ratings are: City = 106 MPGe of fuel it doesn t burn and 92 MPGe on the hwy for fuel it can t use.
EPA LA4 test cycle: Nissan Leaf 100 miles Ideal drive: 138 MPGe 38 mph, 68 deg., no/ac Suburban drive: 105 MPGe Avg. 34 mph, 72 deg. No/AC Hwy dr. Summer:70 MPGe Avg. 55 mph, 95 deg, AC Cross town, Hot: 68 MPGe Avg. 49 mph, 110 deg, AC Winter stop/go: 62 MPGe Avg. 15 mph, 14 deg, Heat
Cost Payback 2007 Impala VS Prius 2007 Chevy Impala 24MPG Maint. Cost/mile = $0.04 Cost Difference $5,290 2007 Toyota Prius 44MPG Maint. Cost/mile = $0.03 How Many Miles Must We Drive to Break Even? At $3 gal gas = 54,639 miles At $4 gal gas = 45,699 miles At $5 gal gas = 39,274 miles Purchase price, mpg & maintenance cost/mile based on data from Oregon DAS Fleet
Leaf Incentives: $7,500 Federal Tax Credit $1,500 State Tax Credit Cost Payback 2011 Sentra VS Leaf 2011 Nissan Sentra 30MPG Maint. Cost/mile = $0.04 Cost Difference w/incentives $5,290 wo/incentives $14,580 2011 Nissan Leaf 99MPGge Maint. Cost/mile = $0.01 How Many Miles Must We Drive to Break Even? At $3 gal gas = 50,867 miles At $4 gal gas = 41,977 miles At $5 gal gas = 35,732 miles At $3 gal gas = 132,912 miles At $4 gal gas = 109,682 miles At $5 gal gas = 93,365 miles With Incentives Without Incentives Purchase price, Nissan MSRP, EPA Est.mpg & maintenance cost/mile is estimated
Battery Costs are Expected to Decline in the Next 5 to 10 Years
Conclusion We have a need for alternatives to oil Ev s are coming Our present electricity grid can support EV s To become mainstream costs will need to come down and range to go up Consumers need to compare total costs of ownership Mass production is coming online New technologies are being developed Consumers will be given choice
MY 2012 2016 CAFÉ & GHG Emissions Standards Cars and Trucks combine to meet an estimated average of 34.1 mpg Standards enable mfg s to achieve compliance by improving AC, overall improvement expected to levels of 35.5 mpg This 35.5 mpg number is equivalent to 250 grams of CO2 per mile, (gco2/mi). Manufacturers can bank and sell credits
Costs & Sliding Scale The standards are expected to increase costs, however fuel savings will more than make up for added costs. The standards are expressed from mathematical functions depending on vehicle footprint. Footprint is the wheelbase multiplied by the vehicles track width. The footprint is capped at the size of a Focus (low) for cars and a Silverado for trucks
MY 2016 CO2 & Fuel Economy Targets Vehicle Type for various MY 2008 Veh s Example models Example model footprint (sq ft) EPA CO2 Emissions Target Compact car Honda Fit 40 214 41.4 Midsize car Ford Fusion 46 237 37.3 Full size car Chrysler 300 53 270 32.8 Small SUV Midsize crossover 4WD Ford Escape 44 269 32.8 Nissan Murano 49 289 30.6 Minivan Toyota Sienna 55 313 28.2 Large Pickup Truck Chevy Silverado 67 358 24.7 NHTSA Fuel Economy target (mpg)
Incentives to auto manufacturers To encourage auto manufacturers to build advanced vehicles (BEV, PHEV & FCV) EPA will consider these vehicles zero CO2 until 2016. Only the first 200,000 fuel cell (FCV), battery electric (BEV) or plug in hybrid (PHEV) vehicles sold by an automaker between 2012 and 2016 will count toward this incentive. If an automaker sells at least 25,000 such vehicles in the 2012 model year the total cap jumps to 300,000. So expect to see lots of carmakers pushing deals on BEVs and PHEVs and maybe even some FCVs during what is likely to be an extended 2012 model run in order to hit that 25,000 number.
New EPA Alt Fuel Vehicle Conversion Rules Clean Air Act prohibits altering vehicle from its certified configuration. New program enables exemption when emission requirements are met. The specific requirements differ based on the age of the vehicle or engine being converted. Manufacturers may apply a single set of test data to a broader set of vehicles and engines. Annual re certification is no longer required.
Overview of Program Elements Vehicle / Engine Age Conversion Manufacturer Requirement Category Applicability Ex. For 2011 Demonstration Notification Cert Issued New MY >= current calendar year 1 Intermediate Age Outside Useful Life MY <= current calendar year 2 and < useful life Exceeds useful Life MY 2010,2011, 2012 and < useful life mileage MY 2002 2009 and < useful life mileage My 2001 and older or > full useful life in mileage Exhaust, Evap, and On Board Diagnostics (OBD) testing Exhaust, Evap testing + OBD scan tool test and attestation Technical justification and OBD scan tool test and attestation Certification application Compliance submission Compliance submission Yes No No
Change is Coming This Decade will See Higher fuel prices Supply will be tighter Higher CAFE requirements More efficient vehicles New technologies & fuels EV s, CNG, biofuels to become more prevalent Questions