Clean and Low Carbon Mobility: Recent global developments and lessons for India Anup Bandivadekar New Delhi September 5, 2018
Transportation and Air Quality 2
Ultra-low sulfur diesel is increasingly the norm... Global progress toward soot-free diesel vehicles in 2018: https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-progress-toward-soot-free-diesel-vehicles-2018 3
enabling diesel particulate filter deployment on trucks and buses. Global progress toward soot-free diesel vehicles in 2018: https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-progress-toward-soot-free-diesel-vehicles-2018 4
Diesel car sales have started to implode in major EU member states http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/cities-driving-diesel-out-european-car-market 5
Light-vehicle emission standards tightening further US implementation of Tier III light-duty emission standards began from MY 2017 onwards EU has began implementation of real-driving emissions (RDE) test requirements EU, Japan, Korea have adopted World Harmonized Light-duty Vehicles Testing Procedure (WLTP) China 6/VI emission standards surpass Euro 6/VI emission standards Euro 7 standards discussions have begun 6
China 6 emission standards are an ambitious step forward Emission limits are fuel neutral and more stringent than those in Euro 6 N 2 O emission limits Stringent evap. limits, innovative 48-hr test procedure, OBD and ORVR requirement OBD provisions largely based on CA OBD II with a few modification Modified RDE boundary conditions 7
Comparison of China V, China VI and Euro VI 8 https://www.theicct.org/publications/china s-stage-vi-emissions-standard-heavy-duty-vehicles-final-rule
Global baseline assessment of compliance and enforcement programs https://www.theicct.org/publications/compliance-and-enforcement-global-baseline 9
PM (grams/kwh) Emission testing of a new BSIV 3.8L bus engine 0.035 0.03 0.025 0.02 ETC BS IV PM limit ESC BS IV PM limit 0.015 0.01 0.005 0 3.5 BS IV limits 0 2 4 6 8 10 NOx (grams/kwh) WHSC WHTC ESC ETC Hot test Cold test 10
A combination of regulatory tools and incentives is necessary to reduce transport emissions New Vehicle Policies Stringent tailpipe emission standards BS VI for on-road vehicles Stage V for non-road vehicles Stringent evaporative emission standards Strong compliance and enforcement program Promotion of electric drive Clean Fuel Policies Ultra-low sulfur fuels Stage I and II evaporative controls In-use vehicle emission control On-board diagnostics (OBD) based inspection and maintenance program Remote sensing or other in-use emissions testing program Scrappage of old (especially diesel) vehicles Diesel particulate filter (DPF) retrofits for BS III vehicles Demand management Restrictions on use of older/more polluting vehicles Additional fees for older/more polluting vehicles Low Emission zones (LEZ) 11
Transportation and Climate Change 12
The climate challenge for the global transportation sector has intensified in the past 10 15 years. In 2003: Constrain transport sector emissions growth from 5 Gt direct CO 2 to 6 Gt by 2050, a 20% increase. In 2017: Reduce fuel lifecycle GHG emissions from 9.5 Gt CO 2 e to 1.5 4.5 Gt in 2060, a 53 85% decrease. OECD/IEA. Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) 2006 and [draft] 2017 models.
The 4DS includes some new policies; achieving a 2DS requires a transformation of the energy system; a B2DS goes even further. Source: OECD/IEA. ETP 2017 model.
Under a 2DS, any growth in transport GHG emissions is limited to regions outside the top 20 economies. Source: OECD/IEA. ETP 2017 model.
B2DS: A lot more buses, most of them BEV and PHEV 16
Global passenger cars fuel consumption standards http://www.theicct.org/chart-library-passenger-vehicle-fuel-economy 17
Global light-commercial vehicles (LCVs) fuel consumption standards http://www.theicct.org/chart-library-passenger-vehicle-fuel-economy 18
HDV efficiency standards projected to achieve 40% reductions HDV Fuel Economy + GHG Standards - ONLY 4 Nations: Japan, US, Canada, China Europe scheduled to Propose first-ever HDV CO2 in the spring of this year. India, Brazil, Korea, Mexico and others are also examining future standards. A key challenge is developing a simulation compliance model ideally harmonized across nations and regions. California has policies to promote ZEV buses and other segments. 19
The costs of EV battery packs have fallen faster than expected. Plug-in vehicle cost parity with ICEs could be reached in a few years. Nykvist, B., & Nilsson, M. (2015). Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles. Nature Climate Change, 5(4), 329 332. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2564 20
A ~70 g/km (NEDC) target by 2025 can be achieved cheaper if transitioning to electric vehicles earlier 21 Source: http://www.theicct.org/2020-2030-co2-standards-cars-lcvs-eu-briefing-nov2016
If the new car diesel market share would decrease to 15% by 2025, a 70 g/km target could still be met 22 Source: http://www.theicct.org/effects-of-future-eu-diesel-mkt-share-decline
Passenger vehicle ZEV mandates spread around the world Government Target year Percentage of EV credits ICCT estimate of percent EV sales China 2020 12% 3 4% California 2025 22% 8% Quebec 2025 22% 10% Europe 2025 2030 15% 30% 5 10% 15 20% China s New Energy Vehicle mandate is integrated into its existing fuel economy standards, an excellent first step but in need to substantial improvement in the next iteration of the standards. California forecasts only 8% EV penetration in 2025 due to credit multipliers which needs substantial enhancements to achieve a ~ 30% target by 2030. Quebec s policy is nearly identical to California s but with fewer credits Europe s policy currently only a proposal includes incentives for achieving substantial EV penetration levels but no penalties. We forecast substantial penetration levels due to major OEM commitments: VW (20 25% by 2025), BMW and Daimler (15 25% by 2025), Renault / Nissan (20% by 2020 depending on market conditions).
India Policy Landscape Policy Vehicle fuel efficiency standards Electric vehicles The first PV fuel efficiency standards: 130 gco 2 /km in 2017 and 113 gco 2 /km in 2022 The first HDV (>= 12 tons) fuel efficiency standards adopted on August 2017 Lower GST 1 rates for EVs FAME 2 scheme for hybrid and electric vehicles Central government s leading actions Progress 2017-18 new vehicle average fuel efficiency: 121 gco 2 /km 2015/current new vehicle average fuel efficiency: 650+ gco 2 /km A 12% tax rate for EVs (compared with 28% plus cess (1% to 15%) for petrol and diesel cars and hybrid vehicles) More than 176,473 vehicles participated (by the end of 2017) Extended through 2018, with the exact allocation for future years yet to be determined 10,000 EVs to be purchased for government cars Energy diversity 10% bioethanol blending targets 5% biodiesel blending targets ~3.3% on average across the country in 2016 The market for biodiesel (B100) is nascent CNG fleet More than 2.5 million CNG vehicles reported as of 2015 1. GST: good and service tax 2. FAME: Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles 24
Two scenarios for India on-road CO 2 emissions BAU Moderate Ambitious Fuel efficiency (FE) Zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) PV FE standard adopted HDV FE standard adopted 1-2% annual improvement between 2020-2050 <1% in 2017 Up to 50% ZEV share in 2050 1-5% annual improvement between 2020-2050 Up to 100% ZEV share in 2050 Biofuel blending 1 2.5% bioethanol 0.5% biodiesel 10% bioethanol in 2030-50 1.5% biodiesel in 2030-50 20% bioethanol in 2050 5% biodiesel in 2050 Electrical grid upgrade 820 gco 2 /kwh Target: 500 CO 2 g/kwh in 2030 1. The biofuel blending targets are set based on the sustainable feedstock capacity Target: 266 CO 2 g/kwh in 2050 25
Under the ambitious scenario, India s on-road oil consumption can peak by 2030 300 250 200 Oil Consumption (Mtoe) Oil needs (million liters) BAU Gasoline 350,000 300,000 250,000 150 200,000 100 50 2028, peak Gasoline Diesel Diesel Domestic crude oil production 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 150,000 100,000 Ambitious 50,000 26
India Transport GHG stabilization scenario needs aggressive fuel efficiency (FE) policies AND full scale electrification by mid-century 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 CO2 emissions (megatons) Moderate FE Moderate ZEV Moderate bio-fuel Ambitious FE Ambitious ZEV Moderate BAU 400 Ambitious bio-fuel 300 Ambitious 200 100 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 27
Impact of mode shift, trip length and improved freight logistics Policy Assumptions 2020 2025 2030+ Mode shift (the change in transportation activity 1 ) Reduction of urban trip length Logistic improvement Passenger vehicle to bus Passenger vehicle to rail ~6% ~13% ~22% ~4% ~5% ~6% Freight to rail 10% 20% 40% Passenger VKT 2 reduction Freight VKT 2 reduction 2% 3% 5% 3% 3% 5% Clean grid Low-carbon grid Reaching 50 gco 2 /kwh in 2050 1. Transportation activity in passenger kilometers or ton kilometers. 2. VKT: vehicle kilometers traveled. Source: https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/icct%20roadmap%20energy%20report.pdf 28
Urban planning and mode shifting required to bend the curve 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 CO2 emissions (megatons) Fuel efficiency standards Vehicle electrification Bio-fuel blending Cleaner grid Mode shift Urban planning BAU 300 200 100 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 29
Clean & low carbon mobility is an ambitious agenda Air Quality remains a major challenge around the world, but technology and policy progress is impressive. Transportation climate challenge is daunting, and time is running out. Huge potential in India to make progress on both fronts Increase policy ambition for emission and efficiency standards, along with vehicle electrification key Policy ambition needs to be matched by effective compliance and enforcement actions Technology can get us there most of the way, but needs complementary efforts on urban planning and mode shifting 30
http://www.theicct.org/ @theicct anup@theicct.org 31
ICCT mission and activities The mission of ICCT is to dramatically improve the environmental performance and efficiency of cars, trucks, buses and transportation systems in order to protect and improve public health, the environment, and quality of life. Non-profit research organization Air Pollution and Climate Impacts Focus on regulatory policies and fiscal incentives Activity across modes including aviation and marine Global outreach, with special focus on largest markets Slide 32
While emission standards were tightened, real-world NO x from diesel cars in EU remained high http://www.theicct.org/environmental-risks-diesel-passenger-vehicles-brazil-2016, based on Chen and Borken-Kleefeld (2014) - 33 -
A comparison of laboratory vs. on-road test results for 3 diesel cars in the US triggered Dieselgate On-road test Laboratory test Source for photos: AVL / ERMES Vehicles shown on photos are not related to test results shown - 34 - http://www.theicct.org/use-emissions-testing-light-duty-diesel-vehicles-us
ICCT kept analyzing global data trying to get a better picture of diesel vehicles NOx emissions 15 Euro 6/Tier 2-B5 LDDVs measured by PEMS http://www.theicct.org/real-world-exhaust-emissions-modern-diesel-cars 35
Government testing has confirmed earlier findings and points to numerous other defeat devices - 36 - http://theicct.org/blogs/staff/first-look-results-german-transport-ministrys-post-vw-vehicle-testing
Introduction of new RDE test procedure is an improvement but still masks part of the emissions NO x emission level (mg/km) 2,000 VW Jetta with defeat device (on-road) 1,000 VW Passat with defeat device (on-road) Euro 6 diesel average car (on-road) Euro VI average truck (on-road) 180 80 2017: Conformity Factor 2.1 (RDE, on-road) 2020: Conformity Factor 1.5 (RDE, on-road) Euro 6 limit (NEDC, lab) Euro 6 gasoline average car (on-road) - 37 -
Major reform of China Clean Air Law strengthens authority for compliance and enforcement Clear authority to enforce standards Recall authority is established for motor vehicles and off-road engines Clear authority of central and provincial environmental agencies (MEP and provincial EPBs) to impose large fines (1-3 times product value) for producing, selling and importing non-compliant vehicles Clear authority of the industry ministry (MIIT) to suspend or discontinue the production of violating vehicles/engines Clear authority of environmental agencies to perform compliance testing Authority of MEP and provincial EPBs to investigate and test newly produced and sold vehicles and engines Authority of local EPBs to perform random onsite and roadside emission inspection and testing, including remote sensing tests. Highlighted shared burden among government, industry, and consumers Manufacturers of vehicles and engines shall test their products to ensure emission compliance before introducing the products into commerce Manufacturers shall publish their emission compliance test result information to the public Manufacturers shall recall their vehicle/engine products if they are found not in compliance with standards due to design, manufacturing defects Consumers are prohibited from tampering/modifying emission control devises (incl. OBDs) 41
Fundamentals of controlling air pollutant emissions from motor vehicles New vehicle standards Fuel quality standards In-use vehicle emission control Technology neutral (but technology-forcing ) emissions standards for new vehicles. Must consider emissions from all mobile sources: on-road, offroad, marine, locomotives, aviation Limit values only as good as: - Compliance and enforcement - Real-world performance Systems Approach High fuel quality (especially low sulfur levels) enables advanced emission control technologies to be deployed in the fleet. Fuel quality compliance programs critical to prevent damage to engines and prevent misfueling Clean up legacy vehicles on the roads Comprehensive program includes: - Catching gross-emitters (I/M, remote sensing, maintenance, etc.) - Cleaner fuels - Scrappage/replacement programs - Retrofit programs - Complementary strategies (low emission zones, driver training, etc.) Not shown but also important: transportation demand management, modal shift, traffic optimization, and more http://www.theicct.org/global-health-roadmap http://www.theicct.org/best-practicesemission-control-in-use-hdvs 42
Gram per kilometer Comparison between China 6 (a and b), Euro 6, Tier 2 and LEV 3 standards Gram per kilometer Diesel Cars Gasoline Cars 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 NMOG+NOX PM x 10 Euro 6 China 6a Tier 2 Bin 5 China 6b ULEV Bin 70 Tier 3 Bin 30 0.18 NMOG+NOx 0.16 PM x 10 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 Euro 6 China 6a Tier 2 Bin 5 China 6b ULEV Bin 70 Tier 3 Bin 30 [1] Emissions limits are those for Type I test (regular temperature, cold start emission test) [2] For diesel light-duty vehicles, Europe and China regulate HC and NOx, instead of NMOG+NOx [3] For gasoline light-duty vehicles, Europe and China regulate NMHC and NOx, instead of NMOG+NOx [4] This analysis simply compares direct emission limits, and does not take into consideration the differences in test cycle and procedures among various regulatory programs Slide 44
e-hdvs could be cheaper than diesels by 2030 Key assumptions: battery pack costs below $150 per kilowatt-hour & hydrogen fuel cells below the per-energy-unit cost of diesel Overhead catenary HDVs 15% less, and H2 cells 5% less, than diesels Missing from this analysis is the battery electric long-haul tractor trailer... Transitioning to zero-emission heavy-duty freight vehicles https://www.theicct.org/publications/transitioning-zero-emission-heavy-duty-freight-vehicles 45