Weekly Report Weekly Report ENERGY STATISTICS 211, WEEK 41 OIL DISTILLATES NATURAL GAS COAL CO2 ELECTRICITY EXCHANGE RATES This document may not be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, for any purpose, without our prior written permission.
Notes Note on EMP structural prices This report contains a range of theoretical curves, called EMP structural prices. The EMP structural prices are developed by EnergyMarketPrice analysts on the basis of a range of criteria pertinent for the respective markets. Specifically, oil EMP structural price takes into consideration US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX. Electricity EMP structural prices are constructed on the basis of modeled oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, carbon emissions transposed to the national power parks (taking also into account nuclear outages, were relevant). These curves have as a sole aim to aid understanding the influence of different factors on real market prices. These curves should not be used for any commercial quotations. Note on market views This report contains a range of flashes indicating the expected market trend for the short term. Upward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to increase. Downward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to decrease. Straight flashes indicate that the market price is expected to remain in the range in the short term. The expectations are based on EnergyMarketPrice analysts assessment, and there should be no liability on their part related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.
Overview Oil Worldwide Brent crude oil futures reached a four-week high and extended gains for a second straight week on hopes that the euro zone debt crisis would be contained. Euro posted its best week in nine months. Speculators raised their net long positions by 8% in the week to October 11. Natural Gas Gas futures ended up, but the large increase in oil prices failed to be replicated at the same level. Cal212 contract rose by less than.7% in Belgium and the Netherlands. Spot price rose by double digit percentages in all markets. Traders expect that a drop in temperatures will spur demand next week. CO2 EU carbon prices fell.5% during the week 41. Carbon analysts said they were observing weakened technical signals and softer equity markets. However, traders seem optimistic that the euro zone will have an effective plan to deal with its debt crisis, but things can quickly change. Europe Distillates Gas oil rose 7%, while Heavy Fuel Oil 3.5% ARA gained 6.3%. Gasoil futures saw their strongest weekly gain since July, tracking strength in crude prices. While demand remained fade ahead of the winter season, traders said the increase of refinery activity was supporting prices. Coal Coal API2 prices weakened by almost 1% continuing their drift lower. Traders said that lower demand in Europe is starting to be more felt in prices. Not many trades were reported lately. Coal has been largely immune to volatility caused by economic news. Electricity Rising oil prices failed to bring a momentum to power prices. The Cal212 rose by less than 1% in France, the Netherlands, U.K. and Nordic Pool and almost repeated previous week s closure in Germany and Belgium. Spot prices rose in all markets amid colder weather
Brent oil Heavy fuel oil Gas oil UK gas 212 (NBP) Dutch gas 212 (TTF) German gas 212 (BUD) European coal CO2 (EUAs) German power 212 French power 212 Belgian power 212 Dutch power 212 UK power 212 Nordic power 212 Italian power 212 Iberian power 212 Overview of main energy products in last days 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% -12% -14% -16%
Oil Oil Price Brent Oil Week 41 112.82 Previous week 16.6 +6.37% 12 115 11 15 1 95 9 85 8 75 WTI Brent in USD/tonne Gasoil Week 41 959.25 Previous week 896.25 98 96 94 92 9 88 86 84 82 8 +7.2% in USD/tonne Brent crude price has risen by 19.1% since the beginning of 211, and increased by.5% during the last calendar days. Compared to the 211 average to date (111.3 USD/bbl) the current price is 1.4% higher. Brent crude EMP structural price is currently estimated at 94.2 USD/bbl, or 16.5% lower than the actual price, which suggests some downward potential for Brent. NYMEX crude price has fallen by 4.5% since the beginning of 211, and descended by.7% during the last days. Compared to the 211 average (94.8 USD/bbl) the current price is 7.9% lower. Heavy fuel oil price has risen by 32.9% since the beginning of 211, and increased by 3.2% during the last days. Compared to the 211 average (64.1 USD/bbl) the current price is 6.4% higher. Gas oil price has risen by 25.8% since the beginning of 211, and increased by.9% during the last days. Compared to the 211 average (928.5 USD/bbl) the current price is 3.3% higher. Heavy Fuel Oil 3.5% ARA Week 41 643 Previous week 64.75 6 64 6 62 61 6 59 58 5 56 +6.32% in USD/tonne Brent at four-week high Brent crude oil futures reached a four-week high and extended gains for a second straight week on hopes that the euro zone debt crisis would be contained and betterthan-expected retail sales in the United States (up 1.1% in September, better than forecast). Euro posted its best week in nine months against the dollar on perception that Europe's leaders were taking firmer steps to ease the region's debt troubles. Brent crude's premium against U.S. crude was 27.88 USD at the close, up from a previous peak of 27.23 USD set on September 6. Speculators raised their net long positions by 8% in the week to October 11, posting the first rise in four weeks. Gas oil rose 7%, while Heavy Fuel Oil 3.5% ARA gained 6.3%. Gasoil futures saw their strongest weekly gain since July, tracking strength in crude prices, and this has kept demand from end users tight. While demand remained fade ahead of the winter season, traders said the increase of refinery activity was supporting prices.
Focus Russia s power sector structure and reform Russia launched the privatisation of its electricity market in 27 in a bid to introduce competition, liberalise prices and attract investment and expertise from the private or international sector. The project was led by Anatoly Chubais, the architect of the early 199s privatisation drive that followed the breakup of the Soviet Union. State-controlled power monopoly RAO UES was broken up into three main divisions: wholesale and regional generators, distribution grids and the Federal Grid FSK. Many of the generators were sold in auction, but the financial crisis of 28 held back further privatisation and the state still controls percent of the sector. The Federal Grid and the central holding company for the regional distribution grids remain state-controlled, while other assets are owned by state power holding group InterRAO and gas export monopoly Gazprom. Rushydro, the hydroelectric power giant, is also under state control but is on the list of companies to be privatised as part of a multi-billion dollar fund-raising plan. Russian households paid among the cheapest electricity bills in Europe in 21 at 9 USD/MWh, compared to a European Union median of 185 USD/MWh. Meanwhile the government has chopped and changed an electricity tariff programme that has yet to allow prices to rise to European standards. Wholesale generators: Privately owned: OGK-4 (E.ON Russia) is 76% owned by the German utility giant E.ON. The company is a favourite with investors and last month reported a 58% rise in first half profit, but has also been vocal about the political influences dictating tariff rises. OGK-5 (Enel Russia) is 56% owned by Italy's Enel. It expects to generate positive cashflow in 212 and subsequently pay dividends. State controlled: OGK-1, controlled by Inter RAO after it bought shares from the Federal Grid and hydroelectric group Rushydro. OGK-3 was sold by metals giant Norilsk Nickel to Inter Rao earlier this year in an all-share deal. The loss-making company is widely considered an example of a failed privatisation. OGK-2 and OGK-6 <OGK6.MM>, both controlled by Gazprom and will be a merged entity from November 1. Selected privately owned regional generators (which produce heat as well as electricity): TGK-4 (Quadra), owned by Onexim, the investment group of Russia's 3rd richest man Mikhail Prokhorov. TGK-5, TGK-6, TGK-7 and TGK-9, all controlled by KES-Holding, a unit of the billionaire Viktor Vekselberg's Renova Group. TGK-6 is part-owned by Prosperity Capital Management, the biggest fund in Russia and a believer in power sector reform. TGK-1, 9% owned by Finland's Fortum. TGK-11 and TGK-12 both have coal miner SUEK as biggest shareholder. The state controls regional generators TGK-1, TGK,3 (also known as Mosenergo as it supplies the Moscow region) both controlled by Gazprom, TGK-11 (36% owned by InterRAO) and TGK-14 (63% owned by state monopoly Russian Railways). Source: Reuters
1/1/8 2/1/8 3/1/8 4/1/8 5/1/8 6/1/8 7/1/8 8/1/8 9/1/8 1/1/8 11/1/8 12/1/8 1/1/9 2/1/9 3/1/9 4/1/9 5/1/9 6/1/9 7/1/9 8/1/9 9/1/9 1/1/9 11/1/9 12/1/9 1/1/1 2/1/1 3/1/1 4/1/1 5/1/1 6/1/1 7/1/1 8/1/1 9/1/1 1/1/1 11/1/1 12/1/1 1/1/11 2/1/11 3/1/11 4/1/11 5/1/11 6/1/11 7/1/11 8/1/11 9/1/11 Oil Structural Price 1 1 1 11 9 EMP Structural price EMP Structural price+speculation Oil in USD/bbl Oil high despite lower fundamentals, speculation is important The EMP price, based on US refinery capacity and crude runs shows a structural decrease of fundamentals. However, speculators and fears of supply disruptions in Arab world support prices above 1 USD/bbl. There is a high correlation with financial indicators (see previous page for the correlation with DOW JONES). Oil structural price is a theoretical EMP modeled price based on US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX.
1/1/1 2/1/1 3/1/1 4/1/1 5/1/1 6/1/1 7/1/1 8/1/1 9/1/1 1/1/1 11/1/1 12/1/1 1/1/1 2/1/1 3/1/1 4/1/1 5/1/1 6/1/1 7/1/1 8/1/1 9/1/1 1/1/1 11/1/1 12/1/1 1/1/11 2/1/11 3/1/11 4/1/11 5/1/11 6/1/11 7/1/11 8/1/11 9/1/11 11/1/11 12/1/11 1/1/1 2/1/1 3/1/1 4/1/1 5/1/1 6/1/1 7/1/1 8/1/1 9/1/1 1/1/1 11/1/1 12/1/1 Oil Stocks 4 4 3 2 Stock EIA 211 Week 41 337.63 Previous week 336.28 +.39% Stock EIA crude range (24-21) 2 2 Stock ARA HFO 211 Week 41 253 Previous week 2235-8.14% Stock ARA Heavy Fuel Oil range (24-21) 2 1 1 Stock EIA 211 1 1 Stock ARA HFO 211 in mln bbl in K tonnes 12 1 Stock ARA GOL 211 Week 41 882 Previous week 764 +15.44% 14 12 Stock ARA Gasoline 211 Week 41 65 Previous week 543 +11.41% 8 6 4 2 Stock ARA Gasoil range (24-21) Stock ARA GOL 211 1 8 6 4 2 Stock ARA Gasoline range (24-21) Stock ARA Gasoline 211 in K tonnes in K tonnes EIA crude stocks have fallen by 2.5% during the last days, and are now 12.9% above the 24-21 median (299.2 mln bbl). ARA heavy fuel oil stocks have fallen by 16.5% during the last days, and are now 8.6% above the 24-21 median (1891 mln bbl). ARA gas oil stocks have risen by 23.4% during the last days, and are now 34.7% above the 24-21 median (655 mln bbl). in K tonnes ARA gasoline stocks have risen by 17.7% during the last days, and are now 27.3% under the 24-21 median (1983 mln bbl).
Oil Global Oil Production in mbpd The first number shows the production estimated for the month of September 211. The second number shows the difference with the same month of the previous year. The color of the second number s background indicates if there has been an increase or a decrease in production compared to the same period of last year: Norway 2.6 +.23 Other North Sea.27 +.1 Russia 1.7 (.1) Canada 3.72 +.28 UK (offshore) 1.7 (.2) Other FSU/ East. Europe.39. Azerbaijan 1.2 +.16 Turkmenistan.21. Kazakhstan 1.71 +.12 Mexico 2.81 (.6) U.S. ( States) 9.57 (.18) Colombia.92 +.11 Ecuador.49. Other Central and S. America.45 (.1) Venezuela 2.2 +.1 Brazil 2.82 +.12 Argentina.76 (.1) Nigeria 2.17 +.3 Algeria 1.27. Libya.2 (1.45) Eq. Guinea.29 (.2) Gabon.21 (.1) Angola 1.8 +.1 Egypt.66. Sudan.48 (.4) Iraq 2.55 +.2 Saudi Arabia 8.9 (.4) UAE 2.6 +.3 Iran 3, -,1 Kuwait 2.45 +.15 Qatar.85. Yemen.25. Oman.86 (.2) India.98. Vietnam.41 +.2 China 4.42 +.4 Indonesia - - Malaysia.67 (.1) Australia.57 +.4 Syria.38 (.2) Total OPEC as % of world production Total North America Total FSU and East. Europe Total Asia and Oceania Total Europe Total Central and South America Total Africa Total Middle East 35.47 4.64 16.1 13.36 9.6 4.23 4.96 2.56 1.53 (.7) (.23) +.4 +.17 +.2 (.1) +.22. (.5)
end of period inventories, in million barrels in mbpd Oil Global Demand and Supply, Inventories 9 89 88 87 86 85 84 83 82 81 31 26 21 16 11 6 o-8 n-8 d-8 j-9 f-9 m-9 a-9 m-9 j-9 j-9 a-9 s-9 o-9 n-9 Demand Supply Supply/Demand o-8 n-8 d-8 j-9 f-9 m-9 a-9 m-9 j-9 j-9 a-9 s-9 o-9 n-9 d-9 j-1 f-1 m-1 a-1 m-1 j-1 j-1 a-1 s-1 o-1 n-1 d-9 j-1 f-1 m-1 a-1 m-1 j-1 j-1 a-1 s-1 o-1 n-1 d-1 j-11 f-11 m-11 a-11 m-11 j-11 j-11 a-11 s-11 o-11 d-1 j-11 f-11 m-11 a-11 m-11 j-11 j-11 a-11 s-11 o-11 U.S. Commercial Inventory OECD Commercial Inventory U.S. Forward Days Cover OECD Forward Days Cover 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.99.98.97 65 63 61 59 57 55 53 51 49 47 45 ratio in days
Oil Correlations 12 115 11 15 1 95 9 1.39 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.34 1.33 1.32 1.31 1.3 1.29 1.28 Brent oil in USD/bbl EUR/USD 12 115 11 15 1 95 9 118 116 114 112 11 18 16 14 12 1 Brent oil in USD/bbl DOW JONES EUR/USD Week 41 1.387 Previous week 1.3434 +2.77% DOW JONES Week 41 11644.49 Previous week 1113.12 +4.87% 12 115 11 15 1 95 9 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 oil in USD/bbl Brent Speculative net long position on crude oil NYMEX 12 115 11 15 1 95 9 3 332 334 336 338 34 342 344 346 348 Brent EIA crude stock level (values in reverse order) oil in USD/bbl, stock in mln bbl SPECULATIVE NET POSITION Week 41 12161 Previous week 18164 +11.92% EIA CRUDE STOCK Week 41 337.628 Previous week 34.963 -.97% EUR/USD exchange rate has risen by 3.3% since the beginning of 211, and increased by.3% during the last days. Compared to the 211 average (1.439) the current rate is 1.7% lower. Dow Jones index has risen by.6% since the beginning of 211, and increased by 1.2% during the last days. Compared to the 211 average (11968.7) the current index is 2.7% lower. Speculative net long position on crude oil at NYMEX has fallen by 25.5% since the beginning of 211, and descended by 26.8% during the last days. Compared to the 211 average (1826) the current level is 33.7% lower. EIA crude stock level has fallen by.5% since the beginning of 211, and descended by 2.5% during the last days. Compared to the 211 average (352.8946 mln bbl) the current level is 4.3% lower.
Natural Gas Natural Gas Price 28.5 27 28. 25 27.5 27. 26.5 Gas TTF 212 23 21 Gas ZEE DA Gas TTF DA Gas NBP DA 26. Gas NBP 212 19 Gas BUD DA Gas PEG DA 25.5 17 25. 15 in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Futures supported by oil, spot up on cold Gas futures ended the week 41 up, but the large increase in oil prices failed to be replicated at the same level. Cal212 contract rose by less than.7% in Belgium (Zeebrugge) and the Netherlands (TTF) and by 1.9% in Germany (Bunde). The contract was stable in U.K., where it fell marginally. Traders expect that a drop in temperatures will spur demand for central heating next week. Spot price rose by double digit percentages in all markets. In U.K., demand could reach 28 mcm/day, compared with 24 mcm/day currently. However, for the time being, supplies more than cover demand. Gas ZEEBRUGGE 212 Week 41 26.79 Previous week 26.61 Gas TTF 212 Week 41 26.44 Previous week 26.26 Gas NBP 212 Week 41 26.4 Previous week 26.42 Gas BUNDE 212 Week 41 26.95 Previous week 26.45 Gas SPAIN 212 Week 41 26.63 Previous week 26.43 +.65% +.68% -.1% +1.89% +.75% Gas ZEEBRUGGE DA Week 41 avg 22.62 Prev.week avg 2.27 Gas TTF DA Week 41 avg 22.41 Prev.week avg 2.34 Gas NBP DA Week 41 avg 21.57 Prev.week avg 19.16 Gas BUNDE DA Week 41 avg 23.46 Prev.week avg 19.41 Gas PEG (FRANCE) DA Week 41 avg 23.8 Prev.week avg 2.36 +11.6% +1.17% +12.61% +2.82% +13.32%
Natural Gas 82 8 78 76 74 72 Natural Gas Oil Linked Price Components Brent11 212 Brent3 212 Brent3 212 Brent63 212 Brent313 212 69 68 6 66 6 64 6 62 GOL3 212 GOL313 212 GOL63 212 GOL3 212 GOL11 212 Brent3 211 Week 41 74.19 Previous week 76.25 Brent313 211 Week 41 74.78 Previous week 76.86 Brent63 211 Week 41 74.69 Previous week 76.76 Brent3 211 Week 41 74.89 Previous week 76.97 Brent11 211 Week 41 72.95 Previous week 74.97-2.7% -2.7% -2.7% -2.7% -2.7% 68 46 4 44 4 42 41 4 39 in EUR/bbl LFO3 212 LFO313 212 LFO63 212 LFO3 212 LFO11 212 in EUR/tonne 61 6 59 in EUR/tonne 3 average daily prices of the period Q-1 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 313 average daily prices of the months M-2 to M-4 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 63 average daily prices of the months Q-1 and Q-2, applied to calculate the price for the period Q 3 average daily prices of the months M-1 to M-7, applied to calculate the price for the period Q 11 - average daily prices of the month M-1 applied to calculate the price for the period M Q quarter, M month. GOL3 212 Week 41 664.58 Previous week 645.87 GOL313 212 Week 41 666.99 Previous week 653.27 GOL63 212 Week 41 664.74 Previous week 6.82 GOL3 212 Week 41 665.8 Previous week 654.6 GOL11 212 Week 41 659.48 Previous week 64.99 LFO3 212 Week 41 444.33 Previous week 424.65 LFO313 212 Week 41 446.25 Previous week 429.9 LFO63 212 Week 41 446.75 Previous week 4.9 LFO3 212 Week 41 448.4 Previous week 434.43 LFO11 212 Week 41 439.13 Previous week 419.64 +2.89% +2.1% +2.13% +1.6% +2.88% +4.63% +3.99% +3.67% +3.21% +4.64%
in EUR/MWh 1/16/1 1/26/1 11/5/1 11/15/1 11/25/1 12/5/1 12/15/1 12/25/1 1/4/11 1/14/11 1/24/11 2/3/11 2/13/11 2/23/11 3/5/11 3/15/11 3/25/11 4/4/11 4/14/11 4/24/11 5/4/11 5/14/11 5/24/11 6/3/11 6/13/11 6/23/11 7/3/11 7/13/11 7/23/11 8/2/11 8/12/11 8/22/11 9/1/11 9/11/11 Natural Gas Oil Linked Natural Gas Price 4 12 35 1 8 25 6 2 4 15 2 1 TTF gas Cal Y+1 Oil linked gas price Cal212 Premium [Oil linked gas] - [ZEE TTF average] Oil linked natural gas more expensive than futures Oil linked gas price Cal212 Week 41 33.8 Previous week 32.77 +3.14% The current natural gas oil linked price for calendar 212 is 33.8 EUR/MWh, which is 12.1% higher that at the beginning of 211. During the last days the price has decreased by 1.3%. Compared to the year to date average of 33.23 EUR/MWh, the current price is 1.7% higher. The premium of natural gas oil linked price to Zeebrugge and TTF forwards average is currently at 7.36 EUR/MWh, which is.7 EUR/MWh lower compared to the beginning of the year, and.41 EUR/MWh more than the year to date average of 6.95 EUR/MWh. The premium has increased by 15.26 EUR/MWh during the last days.
in USD/tonne Coal CO2 Coal Index 133 Coal, API N2 Week 41 119. Previous week 12.1 -.91% EUAs 13. CO2 Week 41 1.41 Previous week 1.46 -.47% 128 12.5 12. 123 11.5 118 Coal, API N2, 6 kcal NAR CIF, USD/tonne 11. 1.5 CO2 113 1. 18 9.5 9. in EUR/tonne Coal fell below 12 USD/tonne Coal API2 prices weakened by almost 1% continuing their drift lower. Traders said that lower demand in Europe is starting to be more felt in prices. Not many trades were reported lately. Coal has been largely immune to volatility caused by economic news, instead tracking oil some of the time and to a lesser extent. In addition, coal swaps have retained a strong premium over physical prices for months. As the market moves down, banks have to sell more to hedge and this has been one of the most important market factors, traders said. EUAs fell marginally EU carbon prices fell.5% during the week 41. Carbon analysts said they were observing weakened technical signals and softer equity markets, following trade data from China that pointed to slower demand from the world's second biggest oil consumer. However, traders seem optimistic that the euro zone will have an effective plan to deal with its debt crisis, but things can quickly change. Meanwhile, benchmark U.N. offsets fell to their lowest level as poor economic sentiment weighed across major financial markets.
Coal Coal - Global Physical Trades and Futures, in USD/tone US Eastern Month Ahead 78.87 Rotterdam Month Ahead 117.85 Russia Baltic 11. EEX Month Ahead Russia Eastern LEGEND Phisical trade Futures 117.8 119.1 China 151.62 Colombia 15.75 Richard Bay South Africa 111.61 Maputo South Africa 19.61 Richards Bay Month Ahead 112.25 Kalimantan Indonesia 68.5 Newcastle Australia 12.55 Newcastle Australia - Japan 129.85 16 1 China 126 124 14 Kalimantan Indonesia 122 1 Richard Bay South Africa 12 12 11 Maputo South Africa Newcastle Australia - Japan 118 116 Richards Bay Month Ahead 1 9 8 Newcastle Australia Russia Baltic Russia Eastern 114 112 11 18 EEX Month Ahead 6 Russia Eastern 16 Physical Trades Futures
12.53 15.25 14.24 13.28 11.79 1.67 1.23 23.86 26.15 27.4 26.66 24.85 21.79 1.34 1.44 1.45 1.42 1.39 1.36 1.34 1.31 1.28 1.26 1.23 18.5 19.1 11.5 11. 23.2 23.4 22.7 122.3 127.9 26.1 23.9 132.8 136. 27.2 27.4 139.3 27.7 27.9 28.1 142.6 28.4 28.6 28.9 26.7 27.9 28.4 28.9 145.9 29.4 149.1 29.9 152.4.4 155.6.9 31.3 77.9 72.3 445. 391. 94.8 635.5 616.8 111.8 484. 116.7 119.3 762.5 122. 124.5 127.2 129.7 132.4 134.9 617.8 651.1 663.8 676.6 689.2 99.8 2.1 714.7 727.5 957.3 74.1 978.6 1.1 121.2 142.7 163.9 185.4 116.5 Energy Forecast Long Term Trend Energy and Fundamentals Forecast 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 35 25 2 15 1 5 25 2 15 1 5 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Oil Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Natural Gas U. K. Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 CO2 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-215 Jul-215 8 6 4 2 1 35 25 2 15 1 5 1. 1.45 1.4 1.35 1. 1.25 1.2 1.15 1.1 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Heavy Fuel Oil Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Natural Gas Germany Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 EUR/USD Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 1 1 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Gasoil Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Coal Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Long term forecast is based on s trend of a relevant data series, selected for each market separately and reflects our expectation on the evolution of the given indicators until 215. The trend is the result of a statistical model. Figures are indicative only and there should be no liability on EMP related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.
Power Power Europe last 3 months 8 Belgium 75 Netherlands Germany 65 France Great Britain 6 Nordic Pool 55 Spain Italy 45 4 7/18/11 7/22/11 7/26/11 7//11 8/3/11 8/7/11 8/11/11 8/15/11 8/19/11 8/23/11 8/27/11 8/31/11 9/4/11 9/8/11 9/12/11 9/16/11 Austria Hungary Czech Rep. Power futures stable despite bullish oil Rising oil prices failed to bring a momentum to power prices. The Cal212 rose by less than 1% in France, the Netherlands, U.K. and Nordic Pool and almost repeated previous week s closure in Germany and Belgium. Spot prices rose in all markets amid colder weather. However, some healthy solar power helped contain the increase of day-ahead quotations. Demand for power in France is expected to jump next week to a peak of 63,2 MW. German power plant availability will likely rise by 7.5%, next week due to additional coal and gas fired capacity. Further ahead, western Europe is expected to experience below-average temperatures this winter.
Power Power Germany Power France 59 57.5 57. 58 56.5 57 56 EMP Structural Price 212 DE Cal212 bsld 56. 55.5 55. 54.5 EMP Structural Price 212 FR Cal212 bsld 55 DE Cal213 bsld 54. 53.5 FR Cal213 bsld 54 53 53. 52.5 52. in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal212 price closed the week at 55.85 EUR/MWh, or 5.18% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 211 average to date of 56.67 EUR/MWh, the current price is 1.45 EUR/MWh lower. DE Cal212 bsld The contract is.1 EUR/MWh Week 41 55.85 higher than the estimated EMP Previous week 55.9 Cal212 structural price, which DE Cal213 bsld suggests some downward Week 41 55.1 Previous week 55. pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price 212 The Cal213 bsld is currently.75 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal212 bsld. 6 4 2 1 Week 41 55.84 Previous week 55.68 DE Spot Week 41 avg 53.74 Prev. week avg 49.46 -.8% -.36% +.29% +8.63% DE Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal212 price closed the week at 55.1 EUR/MWh, or.92% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 211 average to date of 56.85 EUR/MWh, the current price is 3.7 EUR/MWh lower. The contract is.23 EUR/MWh FR Cal212 bsld Week 41 55.1 higher than the estimated EMP Previous week 54.65 Cal212 structural price, which FR Cal213 bsld suggests some downward Week 41 53.85 Previous week 54. pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price 212 The Cal213 bsld is currently 1.25 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal212 bsld. 6 4 2 1 Week 41 54.87 Previous week 55.45 FR Spot Week 41 avg 51.8 Prev. week avg 49.98 +.82% -.82% -1.4% +3.63% FR Spot in EUR/ MWh
Power Power Correlations 59 12 59 128 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 115 11 15 1 95 DE Cal212 bsld FR Cal212 bsld Brent oil 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 126 124 122 12 118 116 DE Cal212 bsld FR Cal212 bsld Coal Index 51 9 51 114 59 28.5 59 14 58 28 58 12 57 56 55 54 53 27.5 27 26.5 26 DE Cal212 bsld FR Cal212 bsld Zeebrugge gas Cal211 57 56 55 54 53 1 8 6 4 DE Cal212 bsld FR Cal212 bsld EUA 52 25.5 52 2 51 25 51
Power Power Belgium Power Netherlands 57 59 56 55 54 53 52 BE Cal212 bsld BE Cal213 bsld EMP Structural Price 212 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 EMP Structural Price 212 NL Cal212 bsld NL Cal213 bsld 51 51 in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal212 price closed the week at 54.43 EUR/MWh, or.46% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 211 average to date of 55.99 EUR/MWh, the current price is 2.79 EUR/MWh lower. The contract is.24 EUR/MWh BE Cal212 bsld Week 41 54.43 higher than the estimated EMP Previous week 54.44 Cal212 structural price, which BE Cal213 bsld suggests some downward Week 41 52.61 Previous week 52.78 pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price 212 The Cal213 bsld is currently 1.82 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal212 bsld. 6 4 2 1 Week 41 54.19 Previous week 54.22 BE Spot Week 41 avg 51.25 Prev. week avg 49.98 -.1% -.32% -.4% +2.53% BE Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal212 price closed the week at 55.55 EUR/MWh, or 3.83% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 211 average to date of 56.64 EUR/MWh, the current price is 1.92 EUR/MWh lower. The contract is.27 EUR/MWh NL Cal212 bsld Week 41 55.55 higher than the estimated EMP Previous week 55.25 Cal212 structural price, which NL Cal213 bsld suggests some downward Week 41 53.35 Previous week 53.2 pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price 212 The Cal213 bsld is currently 2.2 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal212 bsld. 52 48 46 44 42 4 38 Week 41 55.28 Previous week 55.19 NL Spot Week 41 avg 46.91 Prev. week avg 43.84 +.54% +.28% +.14% +6.99% NL Spot in EUR/ MWh
Power Power UK Power Nordic Pool 66. 48 65. 47 64. UK Cal212 bsld 46 63. 45 NP Cal213 bsld 62. 61. EMP Structural Price 212 44 43 42 EMP Structural Price 212 NP Cal212 bsld 6. 41 59. 4 in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal212 price closed the week at 62.19 EUR/MWh, or 4.22% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 211 average to date of 63.2 EUR/MWh, the current price is 1.61 EUR/MWh lower. The contract is.34 EUR/MWh UK Cal212 bsld Week 41 62.19 higher than the estimated EMP Previous week 61.72 Cal212 structural price, which EMP Structural Price 212 suggests some downward Week 41 61.84 Previous week 62.32 pressure on the forward curve. UK Spot 58 56 54 52 48 46 44 Week 41 avg 53.78 Prev. week avg.91 +.74% -.76% +5.62% UK Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal212 price closed the week at 43.9 EUR/MWh, or 1.68% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 211 average to date of 48.8 EUR/MWh, the current price is 8.69 EUR/MWh lower. The contract is.38 EUR/MWh NP Cal212 bsld Week 41 43.9 higher than the estimated EMP Previous week 43.75 Cal212 structural price, which NP Cal213 bsld suggests some downward Week 41 44.45 Previous week 44.8 pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price 212 The Cal213 bsld is currently.55 EUR/MWh more expensive than Cal212 bsld. 4 35 25 2 15 1 5 Week 41 43.52 Previous week 43.77 NP Spot Week 41 avg 28.34 Prev. week avg 8.21 +.34% -.78% -.56% +245.2% NP Spot in EUR/ MWh
Power Power Italy Power Spain 76. 55. 54.5 75. 54. 74. EMP Structural Price Y+1 53.5 EMP Structural Price Y+1 73. 72. IT CalY+1 bsld 53. 52.5 52. SP Cal Y+1 bsld 71. 51.5. 51. in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal212 price closed the week at 74.13 EUR/MWh, or 4.78% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 211 average to date of 73.66 EUR/MWh, the current price is.64 EUR/MWh higher. The contract is.81 EUR/MWh IT CalY+1 bsld Week 41 74.13 higher than the estimated EMP Previous week 73.6 Cal212 structural price, which EMP Structural Price Y+1 suggests some downward Week 41 73.32 Previous week 72.33 pressure on the forward curve. IT Spot 9 8 6 4 Week 41 avg 75.1 Prev. week avg 73.69 +.72% +1.37% +1.91% IT Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal212 price closed the week at 54 EUR/MWh, or 13.33% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 211 average to date of 52.2 EUR/MWh, the current price is 3.45 EUR/MWh higher. The contract is.94 EUR/MWh SP Cal Y+1 bsld Week 41 54. higher than the estimated EMP Previous week 53. Cal212 structural price, which EMP Structural Price Y+1 suggests some downward Week 41 53.6 Previous week 52.88 pressure on the forward curve. SP Spot 65 6 55 45 4 Week 41 avg 59.8 Prev. week avg 54.96 +1.88% +.34% +8.8% SP Spot in EUR/ MWh
9/17/211 9/21/211 9/25/211 9/29/211 1/3/211 1/7/211 1/11/211 1/15/211 Power Power Austria Power Hungary Power Czech Rep. 59 59 58 58 57 57 56 56 55 55 54 EMP Structural Price 212 AT Cal212 bsld 6 6 59 59 58 58 57 57 56 56 55 EMP Structural Price 212 HU Cal212 bsld 6 58 56 54 52 48 46 EMP Structural Price 212 CZ Cal212 bsld in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh 65 6 55 45 4 35 AT Spot in EUR/ MWh 9 8 6 4 2 1 HU Spot in EUR/ MWh 6 4 2 1 CZ Spot in EUR/ MWh AT Cal212 bsld Week 41 55.85 Previous week 55.9 EMP Structural Price 212 Week 41 55.8 Previous week 55.65 AT Spot Week 41 avg 54.35 Prev. week avg 48.96 -.8% +.28% +11.1% HU Cal212 bsld Week 41 57.1 Previous week 57.13 EMP Structural Price 212 Week 41 57.29 Previous week 56.99 HU Spot Week 41 avg 6.39 Prev. week avg 56.3 -.5% +.53% +7.78% CZ Cal212 bsld Week 41 53.9 Previous week 54. EMP Structural Price 212 Week 41 54.6 Previous week 54.27 CZ Spot Week 41 avg 53.16 Prev. week avg 46.45 -.18% -.37% +14.43%
Power Current prices UK 62.19 62.55 -.37 LEGEND Last quotation for Cal212 bsld Last 2 days average Last quot. - Last 2 days average <-1 +1 to -1 >+1 Spain 54. 53.41.59 Belgium 54.43 54.58 -.15 France 55.1 55.9.1 Holland 55.55 55.78 -.22 Italy 74.13 73.65.48 Germany 55.85 56.14 -.29 Austria 55.85 56.14 -.29 Nordic 43.9 43.9. Czech Rep. 53.9 54.19 -.29 Hungary 57.1 57.4 -. Historical range 12 11 1 9 8 6 4 Belgium Netherlands Germany France Spain UK 1/1/6 1/1/7 1/1/8 1/1/9 1/1/1 1/1/11
17/9/211 18/9/211 19/9/211 2/9/211 21/9/211 22/9/211 23/9/211 24/9/211 25/9/211 26/9/211 27/9/211 28/9/211 29/9/211 /9/211 1/1/211 2/1/211 3/1/211 4/1/211 5/1/211 6/1/211 7/1/211 8/1/211 9/1/211 1/1/211 11/1/211 12/1/211 13/1/211 14/1/211 15/1/211 16/1/211 17/9/211 18/9/211 19/9/211 2/9/211 21/9/211 22/9/211 23/9/211 24/9/211 25/9/211 26/9/211 27/9/211 28/9/211 29/9/211 /9/211 1/1/211 2/1/211 3/1/211 4/1/211 5/1/211 6/1/211 7/1/211 8/1/211 9/1/211 1/1/211 11/1/211 12/1/211 13/1/211 14/1/211 15/1/211 16/1/211 Power Statistics Spark Spreads Clean Spark Spreads 25 2 15 Spark Spread Spot DE Week 41 avg 7.59 Prev. week avg 8.64 Spark Spread Spot FR Week 41 avg 6.73 Prev. week avg 9.48 Spark Spread Spot NL Week 41 avg 7.1 Prev. week avg 9.59 18 16 14 12 1 8 Clean Spark Spread Spot DE Week 41 avg 3.64 Prev. week avg 4.77 Clean Spark Spread Spot FR Week 41 avg 2.78 Prev. week avg 5.61 Clean Spark Spread Spot NL Week 41 avg 3.6 Prev. week avg 5.72 1 5 Spark Spread Spot DE Spark Spread Spot FR 6 4 2 Clean Spark Spread Spot DE Clean Spark Spread Spot FR Spark Spread Spot NL -2 Clean Spark Spread Spot NL -4 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. Spark Spread Cal 212 DE Week 41 2.85 Previous week 2.9 Spark Spread 212 FR Week 41 2.22 Previous week 2.13 Spark Spread 212 NL Week 41 2.67 Previous week 2.73 Spark Spread 211 DE Spark Spread 211 FR Spark Spread 211 NL. -.5-1. -1.5-2. -2.5-3. -3.5-4. Clean Spark Spread 212 DE Week 41-1.29 Previous week -1.27 Clean Spark Spread 212 FR Week 41-1.92 Previous week -2.4 Clean Spark Spread 212 NL Week 41-1.47 Previous week -1.44 Clean Spark Spread 212 DE Clean Spark Spread 212 FR Clean Spark Spread 212 NL -4.5
17/9/211 18/9/211 19/9/211 2/9/211 21/9/211 22/9/211 23/9/211 24/9/211 25/9/211 26/9/211 27/9/211 28/9/211 29/9/211 /9/211 1/1/211 2/1/211 3/1/211 4/1/211 5/1/211 6/1/211 7/1/211 8/1/211 9/1/211 1/1/211 11/1/211 12/1/211 13/1/211 14/1/211 15/1/211 16/1/211 17/9/211 18/9/211 19/9/211 2/9/211 21/9/211 22/9/211 23/9/211 24/9/211 25/9/211 26/9/211 27/9/211 28/9/211 29/9/211 /9/211 1/1/211 2/1/211 3/1/211 4/1/211 5/1/211 6/1/211 7/1/211 8/1/211 9/1/211 1/1/211 11/1/211 12/1/211 13/1/211 14/1/211 15/1/211 16/1/211 Power Statistics Dark and Clean Dark Spreads 21 21 2 2 19 19 18 18 17 Dark Spread 212 DE Week 41 2.72 Previous week 19.19 Dark Spread 212 FR Week 41 19.97 Previous week 17.94 Dark Spread 212 NL Week 41 2.44 Previous week 18.57 Dark Spread 212 DE Dark Spread 212 FR Dark Spread 212 NL Spark spreads represent the essence of the relation between natural gas price and electricity price. It is the theoretical net income of a gas-fired power plant from selling a unit of electricity, after buying the fuel required to produce this unit. Spark spread = Price of electricity Price of gas / Efficiency of Electric Plant. Negative spark spreads indicate that the price of electricity delivered that day did not cover the price of gas bought the same day. The term dark spread refers to the similarly defined difference between cash streams for coal-fired power plants. Clean spark spread represents the net revenue a generator makes from selling power, having bought gas and the required number of carbon allowances. Clean dark spread refers to an analogous indicator for coal fired generation of electricity. 12. 11. 1. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. Clean Dark Spread 212 DE Week 41 7.88 Previous week 7.88 Clean Dark Spread 212 FR Week 41 6.92 Previous week 9.31 Clean Dark Spread 212 NL Week 41 6.13 Previous week 6.13 Clean Dark Spread 212 DE Clean Dark Spread 212 FR Clean Dark Spread 212 NL Premiums 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% Week 41 1.36% Previous week 2.29% BE/FR Week 41-1.22% Previous week -.38% BE/NL Week 41-2.2% Previous week -1.47% DE/NL Week 41.54% Previous week 1.18% DE/BE Week 41 2.61% Previous week 2.68% DE/BE DE/NL BE/NL BE/FR DE/FR -.92% -.83% -.55% -.63% -.7% -4% DE/FR
44. 46. 48.75 52.75 54.3 54.85 55.69 56.51 57.34 58.16 59. 59.82 69.25.93 68. 73. 74.6 74.73 74.85 74.98 75.11 75.23 75.36 75.48 45.79 6.62 6.9 52. 62.61 53. 53.8 65.28 66.9 56.45 68.54.15 58.62 71.78 43.2 42.85 59.67 73.39 6.74 61.79 75.3 62.85 76.64.95 46.6 63.9 64.97 66.2 49.59.27.97 51.65 52.34 53.2 53.71 54.39 52.78 53.15 52. 56.9 58.77 59.73 6.71 61.66 62.64 54. 56.1 54.9 55.65 57.1 57.94 58.88 59.81 52.56 6.76 53.34 63.59 64.57 61.69 62.63 54.82 65.53 63.56 55.77 57.47 58. 59.55 6.58 61.62 62.65 63.69 64.72 Power Forecast Long Term Trend Electricity Forecast 6 4 2 1 6 4 2 1 6 4 2 1 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Power Germany Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Power Netherlands Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Power Spain Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 6 4 2 1 1 8 6 4 2 8 6 4 2 1 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Power France Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Power U. K. Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Power Italy Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 6 4 2 1 Jan-21 Jul-21 6 4 2 1 Jan-21 Jul-21 Power Belgium Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Power Nord Pool Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Long term forecast is based on s trend of a relevant data series, selected for each market separately and reflects our expectation on the evolution of the given indicators until 215. The trend is the result of a statistical model. Figures are indicative only and there should be no liability on EMP related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.
Currency Currency Rates 1.39 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.35 EUR/USD Week 41 1.387 Previous week 1.3434 +2.77% 1.59 1.58 1.57 1.56 GBP/USD Week 41 1.5812 Previous week 1.5557 +1.63% 1.34 1.33 1.32 1.31 1. 1.29 EUR/USD 1.55 1.54 1.53 1.52 1.51 GBP/USD 1.28 1. 1.2 1.19 GBP/EUR Week 41 1.1452 Previous week 1.158-1.1% 8.5 8. EUR/NOK Week 41 7.7455 Previous week 7.8 -.69% 1.18 7.95 1.17 7.9 1.16 7.85 1.15 1.14 1.13 1.12 1.11 1.1 GBP/EUR 7.8 7.75 7. 7.65 7.6 7.55 EUR/NOK