Bi-Weekly Report 2 June 21 Bi-Weekly Report ENERGY STATISTICS 21, WEEK 24 OIL DISTILLATES NATURAL GAS COAL CO2 ELECTRICITY EXCHANGE RATES This document may not be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, for any purpose, without our prior written permission.
Weekly Intelligence Notes 2 June 21 Note on EMP structural prices This report contains a range of theoretical curves, called EMP structural prices. The EMP structural prices are developed by EnergyMarketPrice analysts on the basis of a range of criteria pertinent for the respective markets. Specifically, oil EMP structural price takes into consideration US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX. Electricity EMP structural prices are constructed on the basis of modeled oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, carbon emissions transposed to the national power parks (taking also into account nuclear outages, were relevant). EMP structural prices should be considered in rather relative than absolute terms. In other word, the shape of the EMP structural prices curves is more relevant than the value of its quotes. These curves have as a sole aim to aid understanding the influence of different factors on real market prices. These curves should not be used for any commercial quotations. Note on market views This report contains a range of flashes indicating the expected market trend for the short term. Upward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to increase. Downward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to decrease. Straight flashes indicate that the market price is expected to remain in the range in the short term. The expectations are based on EnergyMarketPrice analysts assessment, and there should be no liability on their part related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.
Weekly Intelligence Overview 2 June 21 Oil Worldwide Crude oil price rose by 1% over the last two weeks, in strong correlation with equities (see Correlations ). Speculators exit oil market, but leave behind an oil price that is still much above our EMP structural price, based on fundamentals (which currently stands at around USD/bbl). Natural Gas Forward European wholesale gas prices rose due to an increased demand among power producers. Despite an increased number of LNG tankers coming to Britain, UK was in the situation to retrieve natural gas from reservoirs during a period in which it usually builds stock. Europe Distillates Oil products followed the trend indicated by crude, but at a different pace. Heavy Fuel Oil price increased only 2.7%, while Gasoil price rose by 1%. Extended refinery cuts across Europe, combined with strong US demand, pushed differentials higher. Coal Prices of coal delivered to Europe were relatively stable during the last two weeks. A Colombian strike did not affect coal prices in Europe. Some EU traders have built large positions, anticipating strong demand from Indian and Chinese buyers in the second half of the summer. CO2 Emissions traders have been lately paying more attention to CERs than to EUAs, as UN s carbon credit delivery for 212 is expected to create a shortfall of certificates in the market. EUA prices, benchmark among emission trading schemes, showed on a modest but steady increase. Electricity Along the curve, the 211 European contracts rose, with two exceptions Nord Pool and Italy. German Cal11 contract rose to 54. EUR/MWh and French Cal11 contract rose to 57.25 EUR/MWh. In most of the countries the Calendar contract is under the EMP modeled price.
Weekly Intelligence Oil 2 June 21 Oil Price 82 8 78 76 74 72 7 68 66 Brent Oil Heavy Fuel Oil Week 24 78,22 Week 22 71,9 +1,2% Brent 44 43 42 41 4 39 38 37 Week 24 423,5 Week 22 412,5 +2,66% Heavy Fuel Oil in USD/bbl in USD/tonne Week 24 681 7 Week 22 615 68 66 64 62 6 58 Gasoil +1,73% Gasoil in USD/tonne Oil gained 1% in two weeks Crude prices finished the Week 24 in upward trend, after having wavered along with US equity markets for the last two weeks. Speculators were leaving the market during Week 23, but have now returned, as the price of the commodity was heading upwards.oil traders are still concerned about the danger of slowing Chinese demand, that could pull prices down. Strong US demand, combined with extended refinery cuts across Europe, have pushed European distillates prices higher. Gasoil has followed oil s rally with a solid pace, registering a 1% increase during the last two weeks. However, Heavy Fuel Oil price increased only 2.66% during the same period.
1/1/21 1/2/21 1/3/21 1/4/21 1/5/21 1/7/21 1/8/21 1/9/21 1/1/21 1/11/21 1/12/21 1/1/21 1/2/21 1/3/21 1/4/21 1/5/21 1/7/21 1/8/21 1/9/21 1/1/21 1/11/21 1/12/21 1/1/21 1/2/21 1/3/21 1/4/21 1/5/21 1/7/21 1/8/21 1/9/21 1/1/21 1/11/21 1/12/21 1/1/21 1/2/21 1/3/21 1/4/21 1/5/21 1/7/21 1/8/21 1/9/21 1/1/21 1/11/21 1/12/21 Weekly Intelligence Oil 2 June 21 Stocks 4 3 Stock EIA 21 Week 24 363,15 Week 22 361,415 +,46% 3 3 Stock ARA HFO 21 Week 24 2327 Week 22 2389-2,59% 3 2 2 1 1 Stock EIA crude range (24-29) Stock EIA 21 2 2 1 1 Stock ARA Heavy Fuel Oil range (24-29) Stock ARA HFO 21 in mln bbl in K tonnes 12 Stock ARA GOL 21 Week 24 81 Week 22 731 +1,8% 14 Stock ARA Gasoline 21 Week 24 997 Week 22 971 +2,67% 1 12 8 6 4 2 Stock ARA Gasoil range (24-29) Stock ARA GOL 21 1 8 6 4 2 Stock ARA Gasoline range (24-29) Stock ARA Gasoline 21 in K tonnes in K tonnes
Weekly Intelligence Oil 2 June 21 Global Oil Production in mbpd The first number shows the production estimated for the month of March 21. The second number shows the difference with the same month of the previous year. The color of the second number s background indicates if there has been an increase or a decrease in production compared to the same period of last year: increase no change decrease Canada 3,27 +,16 UK (offshore) 1,2 -,3 Norway 2,3 +,14 Other North Sea,31 +,1 Other FSU/ East. Europe,41, Azerbaijan 1,7, Russia 1,8 +,21 Turkmenistan,21 +,1 Kazakhstan 1,63 +,17 Mexico 2,78 -,24 U.S. ( States) 9,47 +,44 Colombia,78 +,12 Ecuador,47 -,2 Other Central and S. America,47 +,1 Venezuela 2,1 -,1 Brazil 2,74 +,17 Argentina,79 +,2 Nigeria 1,85 +,7 Algeria 1,35 +,5 Libya 1,65, Eq. Guinea,33 -,2 Gabon,23 -,1 Angola 2, +,25 Egypt,67 +,9 Sudan,53 +,5 Iraq 2,35 -,5 Saudi Arabia 8,25 +,2 UAE 2,3, Iran 3,8, Kuwait 2,3, Qatar,85 +,2 Yemen,27 -,1 Oman,86 +,5 India,93 +,7 Vietnam,44 +,1 China 4,9 +,13 Indonesia - - Malaysia,72 +,2 Australia,61 +,8 Syria,4 -,3 Total OPEC as % of world production Total North America Total FSU and East. Europe Total Asia and Oceania Total Europe Total Central and South America Total Africa Total Middle East 34,57 4,35 15,53 13,18 8,8 4,62 4,78 2,62 1,58 +,98 +,3 +,37 +,38 +,41 -,2 +,32 +,11,
end of period inventories, in million barrels in mbpd Weekly Intelligence Oil 2 June 21 Global Demand and Supply, Inventories 87 1,3 86 1,2 85 1,1 84 83 1,99 ratio 82,98 81,97 Demand Supply Supply/Demand 31 26 21 16 11 6 65 63 61 59 57 53 51 49 47 45 in days U.S. Commercial Inventory OECD Commercial Inventory U.S. Forward Days Cover OECD Forward Days Cover
Weekly Intelligence Oil 2 June 21 Correlations 81 78 75 72 69 1,28 1,26 1,24 1,22 1,2 Brent oil in USD/bbl EUR/USD 8 78 76 74 72 7 68 1 14 13 12 11 1 99 98 oil in USD/bbl Brent DOW JONES 66 1,18 66 97 EUR/USD DOW JONES Week 24 1,2372 Week 22 1,26 +2,58% Week 24 14,64 Week 22 9931,97 +5,22% 8 78 76 8 7 6 oil in USD/bbl Brent 8 78 76 359 36 361 oil in USD/bbl, stock in mln bbl 74 74 362 Brent 72 7 68 4 3 2 Speculative net long position on crude oil NYMEX 72 7 68 363 364 365 EIA crude stock level (values in reverse order) 66 1 66 366 SPECULATIVE NET POSITION Week 24 3293 Week 22 24875 +32,38% EIA CRUDE STOCK Week 24 363,15 Week 22 361,415 +,46%
1/1/28 1/2/28 1/3/28 1/4/28 1/5/28 1/6/28 1/7/28 1/8/28 1/9/28 1/1/28 1/11/28 1/12/28 1/1/29 1/2/29 1/3/29 1/4/29 1/5/29 1/6/29 1/7/29 1/8/29 1/9/29 1/1/29 1/11/29 1/12/29 1/1/21 1/2/21 1/3/21 1/4/21 1/5/21 Weekly Intelligence Oil 2 June 21 Structural Price 17 1 13 11 EMP Structural price 9 7 EMP Struct price+speculation Oil 3 in USD/bbl Oil higher on speculations Good refinery capacity availability in US and high crude stocks tend to pull the price down, as our structural price model shows. The speculation component of our modeled price decreased during the Weeks 23 and 24, as traders were leaving the market after an important price drop during the first half of May. There is a high correlation with financial indicators (see previous page for the correlation between crude and DOW JONES). Oil structural price is a theoretical EMP modeled price based on US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX.
Weekly Intelligence Natural Gas 2 June 21 Natural Gas Price 24 24 23 23 22 21 2 19 Gas TTF 211 Gas NBP 211 Gas BUD 211 Gas ZEE 211 22 21 2 19 Gas TTF 211 Gas NBP 211 Gas BUD 211 Gas ZEE 211 18 18 Prices increased by 5% - 1% Natural gas forwards got more expensive supported both by an increased oil price and a sustained demand that has lifted spot prices by 18% to 2% across Europe. Some technical incidents affected European natural gas production and imposed UK to retrieve gas from inventories in a period when it usually builds stock. Relative increase in natural gas prices over the last two weeks was stronger in UK than in Continental Europe. UK Cal211 natural gas prices rose by around 1%, while Continental gas prices by less than 6%. Gas ZEEBRUGGE 211 Week 24 22,37 Week 22 2,16 Gas TTF 211 Week 24 22,48 Week 22 21,25 Gas NBP 211 Week 24 22,18 Week 22 2,24 Gas BUNDE 211 Week 24 22,65 Week 22 2, Gas SPAIN 211 Week 24 24, Week 22 24, +1,95% +5,78% +9,59% +1,48% % Gas ZEEBRUGGE DA Week 24 avg 19, Week 22 avg 15,75 Gas TTF DA Week 24 avg 2,23 Week 22 avg 17,15 Gas NBP DA Week 24 avg 18,58 Week 22 avg 15,42 Gas BUNDE DA Week 24 avg 2,73 Week 22 avg 17,52 Gas PEG (FRANCE) DA Week 24 avg 19,61 Week 22 avg 16,49 +2,62% +17,98% +2,46% +18,3% +18,88%
Weekly Intelligence Natural Gas 2 June 21 Natural gas oil linked price components 68 58 67 57 66 56 65 Brent11 211 5 GOL11 211 64 Brent73 211 54 GOL33 211 63 62 Brent33 211 Brent63 211 Brent313 211 53 52 GOL313 211 GOL73 211 GOL63 211 61 51 6 in EUR/bbl in EUR/tonne 33 average daily prices of the period Q-1 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 313 average daily prices of the months M-2 to M-4 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 63 average daily prices of the months Q-1 and Q-2, applied to calculate the price for the period Q 73 average daily prices of the months M-1 to M-7, applied to calculate the price for the period Q 11 - average daily prices of the month M-1 applied to calculate the price for the period M Q quarter, M month. Brent33 211 Week 24 65,8 Week 22 64,3 Brent313 211 Week 24 65,43 Week 22 63,78 Brent63 211 Week 24 65,24 Week 22 63,51 Brent73 211 Week 24 65,17 Week 22 63, Brent11 211 Week 24 66,36 Week 22 65,7 +2,32% +2,58% +2,71% +2,63% +1,98% GOL33 211 Week 24 564,97 Week 22 5,82 GOL313 211 Week 24 562,37 Week 22 546,56 GOL63 211 Week 24 561,7 Week 22 544,42 GOL73 211 Week 24 9,15 Week 22 542,89 GOL11 211 Week 24 57,49 Week 22 7,8 +2,56% +2,89% +3,5% +2,99% +2,27%
22/6/29 2/7/29 12/7/29 22/7/29 1/8/29 11/8/29 21/8/29 31/8/29 1/9/29 2/9/29 3/9/29 1/1/29 2/1/29 3/1/29 9/11/29 19/11/29 29/11/29 9/12/29 19/12/29 29/12/29 8/1/21 18/1/21 28/1/21 7/2/21 17/2/21 27/2/21 9/3/21 19/3/21 29/3/21 8/4/21 18/4/21 28/4/21 8/5/21 18/5/21 Weekly Intelligence Natural Gas 2 June 21 Oil linked price natural gas price 35 3 25 2 15 1 Cal21 Cal211 ZEE gas Cal21 TTF gas Cal21 Oil linked gas price Cal21 ZEE gas Cal211 TTF gas Cal211 Oil linked gas price Cal211 Oil linked natural gas more expensive than futures Oil linked gas price Cal211 Week 24 29,33 Week 22 29,19 +,48% Despite a decreasing premium, the oil linked gas price for Cal211 delivery is still over 7 EUR/MWh more expensive than futures traded on exchange markets.
Weekly Intelligence Natural Gas 2 June 21 Natural gas storage LEGEND in K millions cubic meters empty capacity full capacity 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 BAUMGARTEN, in % IBERIAN, in % 4 3 2 1 2 15 1 5 GERMANY, in % NBP, in % BAUMGARTEN PEG Week 24 45,1% Week 24 17,75% % Week 22 45,1% Week 22 17,75% GERMANY PSV Week 24 46,2% Week 24 46,83% % Week 22 46,2% Week 22 46,83% IBERIAN TTF Week 24 44,88% Week 24 3,39% % Week 22 44,88% Week 22 3,39% NBP ZEEBRUGGE Week 24 16,95% Week 24 9,8% % Week 22 16,95% Week 22 9,8% Stocks are depleted by an increased demand from electricity producers. % % % % 2 15 1 5 4 3 2 1 PEG, in % TTF, in % 4 3 2 1 12 1 8 6 4 2 PSV, in % ZEE, in %
Weekly Intelligence Coal CO2 2 June 21 Coal Index Coal, API N2 Week 24 11 Week 22 1 +1% EUAs CO2 Week 24 15,77 Week 22 15,34 +2,8% 14 13 12 11 1 99 98 97 96 Coal, API N2, 6 kcal NAR CIF, USD/tonne in USD/tonne 16,2 16, 15,8 15,6 15,4 15,2 15, 14,8 CO2 in EUR/tonne 95 14,6 Quiet trading European coal market was quiet, as many traders took a break to travel or to watch Football World Cup. Despite some anxiety about the slowdown in Chinese and Indian buying interest, coal index stood above 1 USD/tonne. Some traders have built large positions anticipating strong buying interest from Indian and Chinese consumers, which did not yet materialize. A strike at La Jagua Colombian coal mine had no impact on European coal prices and is unlikely unless the strike lasts several weeks from now on. Low demand Prices of European carbon emissions were steady, as the market focused on UN carbon credits for delivery in 212. Some traders said that they were buying CERs instead of EUAs because they are worried about CER supply after 212. The EUA-CER spread narrowed to its lowest level this year (around 3 EUR/tonne). Traders are still awaiting further news on an EC report of a possible move to a 3% emissions reduction target by 22, which could push EUA prices as high as 3- EUR/tonne.
Weekly Intelligence Coal 2 June 21 Coal - Global Physical Trades and Futures, in USD/tone US Eastern Month Ahead 64,96 7 4 6 5 Colombia 78, Rotterdam Month Ahead Richard Bay South Africa 93,29 96, Russia Baltic 91, EEX Month Ahead 96, Maputo South Africa 9,82 1 2 Russia Eastern 116, Richards Bay Month Ahead 93, China 117,27 Kalimantan Indonesia 7,1 Newcastle Australia 98, LEGEND Phisical trade Futures Newcastle Australia - Japan 7,25 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 FREIGHT Week 24 Week 22 RICHARD BAY - ROTTERDAM 14, 17, -3, RICHARD BAY - MEDITERRANEAN 17,6 19,7-2,1 QUEENSLAND - ROTTERDAM 22,75 22,95 -,2 PUERTO BOLIVAR - ROTTERDAM 18, 2,75-2,75 MARACAIBO - ROTTERDAM 28,99 37,77-8,78 HR - ROTTERDAM 15,9 21,1-5,2 US GULF OF MEXICO - ARA 22,7 29,8-7,1 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 China Kalimantan Indonesia Colombia Richard Bay South Africa Maputo South Africa Newcastle Australia - Japan Newcastle Australia 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 US Eastern Month Ahead Rotterdam Month Ahead Richards Bay Month Ahead EEX Month Ahead 6 Russia Baltic 6 Russia Eastern Physical Trades Futures
Weekly Intelligence Power 2 June 21 Power Germany Power France 59 59 58 57 58 56 54 53 52 51 EMP Structural Price 211 DE Cal211 bsld DE Cal212 bsld 57 56 54 EMP Structural Price 211 FR Cal211 bsld FR Cal212 bsld 53 Curve prices remain lower than the EMP modeled price, mainly due to decreased demand. However, the increased oil price, some nuclear tightness and lower wind capacity (see a +12.8% increase in the spot price) all have contributed to a partial increase of the German Cal211 bsld contract, that gained 1.67% in two weeks. 6 4 3 2 1 DE Cal211 bsld Week 24 54, Week 22 53,65 DE Cal212 bsld Week 24 56,4 Week 22 56, EMP Structural Price 211 Week 24 57,29 Week 22 56,7 DE Spot Week 24 avg 42,1 Prev. week avg 37,25 +1,67% +,71% +2,17% +12,77% BE Spot in EUR/ MWh French power grid said consumption levels would rise to 57, MW next week, 1, MW up from now. However, the increase of Cal211 price is expected to be tempered by ample hydropower reserves that help covering existing demand. French Cal211 bsld is 4.7% more expensive than the German respective contract. 6 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 FR Cal211 bsld Week 24 57,25 Week 22 56,85 FR Cal212 bsld Week 24 57,25 Week 22 57,6 EMP Structural Price 211 Week 24 57,24 Week 22 57,39 FR Spot Week 24 avg 4,51 Prev. week avg 39,62 +,7% -,6% -,25% +2,24% FR Spot in EUR/ MWh
Weekly Intelligence Power 2 June 21 Power Belgium Power Netherlands 58 61 57 59 56 54 53 52 BE Cal211 bsld BE Cal212 bsld EMP Structural Price 211 57 53 51 EMP Structural Price 211 NL Cal211 bsld NL Cal212 bsld 51 49 47 Belgian Cal211 bsld was sold for 54,86 EUR/MWh. The premium of Cal212 bsld to Cal211 bsld fell to 1.4 EUR/MWh from 1.9 EUR/MWh three weeks ago. The Belgian contract is slightly more expensive than the Dutch contract. 6 4 3 2 1 BE Cal211 bsld Week 24 54,86 Week 22 53, BE Cal212 bsld Week 24 56,21 Week 22,66 EMP Structural Price 211 Week 24,83 Week 22 54,54 BE Spot Week 24 avg 41,21 Prev. week avg 38,71 +2,54% +,98% +2,36% +6,45% BE Spot in EUR/ MWh Dutch Cal21 bsld increased to 54.6 EUR/MWh, but is still under the EMP structural price. Therefore, we see some room for further built. The premium of Cal212 bsld to Cal211 bsld is 1.9 EUR/MWh. For comparison, the premium is similar in Belgium and Germany, and is lower in France. 47 45 43 41 39 37 35 33 31 29 NL Cal211 bsld Week 24 54,6 Week 22 53, NL Cal212 bsld Week 24 56, Week 22,65 EMP Structural Price 211 Week 24 58,12 Week 22 56,71 NL Spot Week 24 avg 42,81 Prev. week avg 39,13 +1,96% +1,52% +2,49% +9,42% NL Spot in EUR/ MWh
Weekly Intelligence Power 2 June 21 Power UK Power Nordic Pool 62 49 6 48 58 47 56 54 52 48 UK Cal211 bsld EMP Structural Price 211 46 45 44 43 42 NP Cal212 bsld EMP Structural Price 211 NP Cal211 bsld 46 41 British power was supported by a strong increase of natural gas prices. UK Cal211 bsld reached almost 6 EUR/MWh, much higher than the calculated EMP structural price (.5 EUR/MWh), that suggests that there is a downward potential for the upcoming weeks. 58 53 48 43 38 33 UK Cal211 bsld Week 24 59,77 Week 22 56,19 EMP Structural Price 211 Week 24,49 Week 22 49,13 UK Spot Week 24 avg 51,4 Prev. week avg 46,79 +6,38% +2,75% +9,85% UK Spot in EUR/ MWh Forward prices for Nordic power fell at the end of Week 24 despite forecasts for less rain. Cal211 bsld fell by half a percent due to a modest demand within the region. Traded volumes on the exchange market are very low, at about one third of the usual level. The Cal212 is sold at a discount. 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 NP Cal211 bsld Week 24 46,7 Week 22 46,95 NP Cal212 bsld Week 24 43,35 Week 22 43,93 EMP Structural Price 211 Week 24 46,49 Week 22 44,57 NP Spot Week 24 avg 47,6 Prev. week avg 42,77 -,53% -1,32% +4,3% +11,28% NP Spot in EUR/ MWh
Weekly Intelligence Power 2 June 21 Power Italy Power Spain 8, 49 77,5 48 75, 72,5 7, EMP Structural Price 211 IT Cal211 bsld 47 46 45 44 EMP Structural Price 211 SP Cal211 bsld 67,5 43 65, 42 Italian power curve moved sidewise, finishing the Week 24 one percent lower than at the end of Week 22. As Italian power prices did not respond to the increase in natural gas prices, Cal211 bsld is now under the EMP modeled price. This proves some upward potential for the Italian curve. 8 75 7 65 6 45 4 IT Cal211 bsld Week 24 72,1 Week 22 72,83 EMP Structural Price 211 Week 24 77,21 Week 22 73,87 IT Spot Week 24 avg 58,99 Prev. week avg 6,78-1% +4,51% -2,95% IT Spot in EUR/ MWh Iberian prompt power rose to 46 EUR/MWh, despite low trading volumes and week price fluctuations. The Cal211 responded to an increase of natural gas and coal prices. Seven of Spain s eight nuclear power stations are running normally. Generation is also supplemented by some 6 MW of wind power capacity. 45 4 35 3 25 2 SP Cal211 bsld Week 24 46, Week 22 43,8 EMP Structural Price 211 Week 24 47,97 Week 22 47,96 SP Spot Week 24 avg 35,16 Prev. week avg 45, +5,2% % -21,85% SP Spot in EUR/ MWh
Weekly Intelligence Power 2 June 21 Power Austria Power Hungary Power Czech Rep. 59 58 57 56 54 53 52 51 EMP Structural Price 211 AT Cal211 bsld 54 53 52 51 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 EMP Structural Price 211 HU Cal211 bsld 58 56 54 52 48 46 44 42 EMP Structural Price 211 CZ Cal211 bsld 45 4 35 3 25 AT Spot in EUR/ MWh 6 45 4 35 3 25 2 HU Spot in EUR/ MWh 6 4 3 2 CZ Spot in EUR/ MWh AT Cal211 bsld Week 24 54, Week 22 53,65 EMP Structural Price 211 Week 24 57,61 Week 22 56,8 AT Spot Week 24 avg 46,66 Prev. week avg 41,58 +1,67% +2,74% +12,21% HU Cal211 bsld Week 24 54,5 Week 22 52,85 EMP Structural Price 211 Week 24 46,95 Week 22 45,46 HU Spot Week 24 avg 41,73 Prev. week avg 38,44 +2,27% +3,28% +8,56% CZ Cal211 bsld Week 24 52,25 Week 22 51, EMP Structural Price 211 Week 24 45,6 Week 22 44,89 CZ Spot Week 24 avg 41,14 Prev. week avg 38,57 +2,45% +1,56% +6,66%
Weekly Intelligence Power 2 June 21 Power Europe last 3 months 8 75 7 65 6 45 4 Belgium Netherlands Germany France Great Britain Nordic Pool Spain Italy Austria Hungary Czech Rep. 35
Weekly Intelligence Power 2 June 21 Current prices Spain 46, 44,36 1,64 UK 59,77 57,95 1,83 LEGEND Last quotation for Cal211 bsld Last 2 days average Last quot. - Last 2 days average <-1 +1 to -1 >+1 Belgium 54,86 53,9,96 France 57,25 56,67,58 Holland 54,6 53,8,81 Italy 72,1 72,52 -,42 Germany 54, 53,82,73 Austria 54, 53,82,73 Nordic 46,7 46,81 -,11 Czech Rep. 52,25 52,26 -,1 Hungary 54,5 53,13,92 Historical range 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 Belgium Netherlands Germany France Spain UK
Weekly Intelligence Power Statistics 2 June 21 Spark Spreads Premiums 2 15 1 5-5 -1 Spark Spread Spot DE Week 24 avg 1,32 Prev. week avg 5,32 Spark Spread Spot FR Week 24 avg 2,62 Prev. week avg 6,91 Spark Spread Spot NL Week 24 avg 1,31 Prev. week avg 5,21 Spark Spread Spot NL Spark Spread Spot DE Spark Spread Spot FR -75,22% -62,2% -74,76% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% -9% -1% DE/BE DE/NL BE/NL BE/FR DE/FR 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 Spark Spread Cal 211 DE Week 24 9,35 Week 22 11,45 Spark Spread 211 FR Week 24 12,29 Week 22 14,35 Spark Spread 211 NL Week 24 9,64 Week 22 11,5 Spark Spread 211 FR Spark Spread 211 NL Spark Spread 211 DE -18,34% -14,35% -12,76% Spark Spreads represent the essence of the relation between natural gas price and electricity price. It is the theoretical net income of a gas-fired power plant from selling a unit of electricity, after buying the fuel required to produce this unit of electricity. Spark spread = Price of electricity Price of gas / Efficiency of Electric Plant. Negative spark spreads indicate that the price of electricity delivered that day did not cover the price of gas bought the same day. DE/FR Week 24-4,72% Week 22-5,63% BE/FR Week 24-4,17% Week 22-5,89% BE/NL Week 24,48% Week 22 -,9% DE/NL Week 24 -,9% Week 22,19% DE/BE Week 24 -,57% Week 22,28% +,91% +1,71% +,56% -,27% -,84%
Weekly Intelligence Oil 2 June 21 Currency Rates 1,26 1,25 1,24 1,23 EUR/USD Week 24 1,2372 Week 22 1,26 +2,58% 1,49 1,48 1,47 GBP/USD Week 24 1,4826 Week 22 1,448 +2,9% 1,22 1,21 1,2 EUR/USD 1,46 1,45 GBP/USD 1,19 1,44 1,18 1,43 1,23 1,22 GBP/EUR Week 24 1,1983511 Week 22 1,1946932 +,3% 8,2 8,15 EUR/NOK Week 24 7,8615 Week 22 7,851 +,13% 1,21 1,2 1,19 1,18 GBP/EUR 8,1 8,5 8, 7,95 7,9 EUR/NOK 1,17 7,85 1,16 7,8 1,15 7,75