Achieving Complete Vehicle Autonomy - Getting to Level 5? MassDOT 2017 Innovation & Technology Transfer Exchange Conference March 8 2017 The National Transportation Systems Center U.S. Department of Transportation Office of the Secretary of Transportation
Disclaimer Statements made during this presentation are opinions of the speaker and do not represent official positions of the U.S. Department of Transportation. 2
Gartner's Technology Hype Cycle 3
AVs Hit Peak Hype in 2015 and Now Seem Further From Reality 2015 2016 Source: Gartner August 2015 and August 2016 4
The Future Has Not Changed in 60 Years 1957 2015 5
Automation Project Announcements and Launches Shuttles, buses, pod- cars, first/last mile service, circulators, automated taxis CityMobil GM EN- V 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (YTD) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CityMobil2 ARIBO Sentosa GATEway Project SMOOTH (OSU) A- Taxi MN AV Task Force Sion Bus Delphi Lyft nutonomy WEpods GoMentum Station Bishop Ranch Robot Taxi Auto Rider (Singapore) Uber Novus Drive Optimus Ride Future Bus (Daimler) Local Motors (Multiple) Zoox Navya (Multiple) EasyMile (Multiple) Beverly Hills 2getthere Asia Volgabus MatrЁshka Deutsche Bahn Babcock Ranch SNUber Cumulative Announced/Launched Projects 1/2005-8/2016 (N=40) 6
What s Ahead? q Newspaper headlines are intentionally fantastic q Industry announcements are purposefully competitive q Technical research is hard to interpret q Where do mobility trends intersect with automated vehicles? q Will automated vehicles Improve safety? Improve personal mobility? Increase congestion? Create sprawl? Resist cyberattack? Become a taxi service? Eliminate the need for traffic signals and signs? Deliver packages? Reduce demand for driver licenses? Cause ruts in the road surface? Make ethical choices? Put people out of jobs? Pick up the trash? 7
Vehicle Longevity/Fleet Turnover Expected Survival Rate of Model Year 2017 Vehicles 100% 90% Passenger Cars Light Trucks PERCENT OF VEHICLES REMAINING IN FLEET 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 YEAR Data Source: Final Regulatory Impact Analysis: Corporate Average Fuel Economy for MY 2017- MY 2025 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks; Office of Regulatory Analysis and Evaluation, National Center for Statistics and Analysis, NHTSA, August 2012 8
Different Approaches to Automation SAE Automation Level 5 Level of Automation Technology Disruptors Traditional Automotive Industry Geographic Extent All Roads 9
Automated Vehicle Industry Announcements Source: MojoMotors, 2014 10
Automated Vehicle Projections The Self Driving Vehicle Revolution An illustration of potential growth Source: McKinsey& Company (left) and MarketWatch Research, SAE International (Right) 11
Automated Vehicle Projections Source: Philip Ross 2014 12
An Evolving Market OEMS (AUTO MANUFACTURERS Automobiles Cars Trucks Buses TECHNOLOGY PROVIDERS Suppliers (Data, Sensors, and Systems) Software (e.g., OC, user interface) Data (e.g., maps) HW (e.g., components, sensors, batteries) Infrastructure OPERATORS / SERVICE PROVIDERS Applications and Services Mobility services / ridesharing Navigation Other (e.g., rentals, parking, maintenance, Entertainment) Financing (insurance and leasing) Source: Somasegar and Li (Madrona Venture Group) February 2017 13
What Are the Traditional Vehicle Manufacturers Doing? q Daimler (Mercedes- Benz) Concepts Future Truck 2025 and Future Bus with CityPilot q FCA (Chrysler) Partnership with Waymo to test automated Pacifica minivans q Ford Investing $1 billion over five years in Argo AI q General Motors Partnership with Lyft to test automated Chevrolet Bolt q Volvo Partnership with Uber to use 100 Volvo XC90s to provide service in Pittsburgh q Tesla All new Tesla vehicles will have hardware installed to enable SAE Level 5 Automation Discussed small automated buses in its Master Plan: Part Deux q Overall Companies are adopting ADAS and SAE Level 1-2 automation features on their vehicles All or nearly all automakers are developing and testing automated vehicles Many are partnering with suppliers or acquiring the technology through investments 14
A Focus on Partnerships Source: Somasegar and Li (Madrona Venture Group) February 2017 15
Taxis, TNCs, and Personal Vehicles Automation for Different Modes Transit Buses Small, Low-speed Shuttles Commercial Vehicles 16