Advanced Bio-fuels Production in North America: When & How Much? Michael Warren Executive Director, Global Research & Strategic Services Hart Energy Consulting Presented at: IV Latin American & Caribbean Biofuel Seminar Cali, Colombia
Presentation Overview About Hart Energy Consulting Current Situation US Cellulosic l Ethanol 2 nd Generation Biodiesel Algal-based Biodiesel Conclusions
About Hart Energy Consulting
Global Biofuels Center Membership Diverse and Global Stakeholders
Current Situation
Current Situation: 1 st Gen Bio-fuels 1 st Generation US biofuels makers are under tremendous financial pressure given the inability to raise capital. Ethanol companies have been hard hit due to reduced crushing margins. Highly levered companies that expanded too quickly have filed for bankruptcy VersaSun (VSE) was bought by Valero (VLO) out of bankruptcy Aventine (AVR) also filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy Several US biodiesel companies have filed for, near to filing for bankruptcy, or have been delisted from major stock exchanges: Nova Biosource (NBFAQ) Earth Biofuels (EBOF) O2Diesel (OTOD)
Corn-based Ethanol Breakeven Rates 1.50 $ per Gal 1.00 0.50 1/1/2008 4/1/2008 7/1/2008 10/1/2008 1/1/2009 Hub crush Low Fixed Cost Breakeven High Fixed Cost Breakeven Mark Habib, S&P Credit Drivers for the Ethanol Industry, and Considerations in our Recovery Analysis, March 2009. Low-fixed cost ethanol producers will survive
Renewable Fuels Standard (2) RFS(2) (36 billion Gallons 2009-22) Advanced Bio-fuels (21 Billion Gallons 2009-22, 5.5 Billion Gallons by 2015) Biomass Diesel (2009-22, 1 Billion Gallons by 2012) Cellulosic Bio-fuels (16 Billion Gallons 2010-22, 3 Billion Gallons by 2015) Undefined (4 billion Gallons by 2022) Source: Hart Energy Consulting, 2008 Despite financial state of industry, government policy is still supportive
Source: EPACT 2007 Advanced Bio-fuels: not classified = Possible opportunities for sugarcanebased ethanol imports 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Renewable Fuels Standard (2) Source: US DOE 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Biomass Based Diesel 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Advanced not classified 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.0 Cellulosic Advanced 0.1 0.25 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.0 4.25 5.5 7.0 8.5 10.5 13.5 16.0 Conventional Biofuels 4.0 4.7 9.0 10.5 12.0 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 Previous RFS - PL 109-58 4.0 4.7 5.4 6.1 6.8 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 Total New RFS Requirement 4.0 4.7 9.0 11.1 13.0 14.0 15.2 16.6 18.2 20.5 22.3 24.0 26.0 28.0 30.0 33.0 36.0
US: Policy Uncertainty California Raises the Bar, Again CAFE
Some Perspective in Costs: Biofuels Program Financing Now Look Cheap Compared to IMF estimates 2.7 trillion for US, April 2009 Source: Hart Energy Consulting, April 2008 Once policy uncertainty wanes, investment will pick-up.
Current Situation on Advanced Biofuels The 50,000 Foot View In a conference call this month, speakers from Verenium, Novozymes, Coskata, Dupont Danisco, and Abengoa agreed that there won t be significant volumes of commercial scale cellulosic ethanol until 2011 2012. According to F.O. Licht, about US$1.5 billion has been invested so far in developing new generation biofuels in the US., a relatively small amount compared to technological investments in other sectors. A recent IEA report stated that a conversion technology must be successfully demonstrated before it can be commercially viable, h therefore given the complexity of the technical and economic challenges involved, it could be argued that in reality, the first commercial plants are unlikely to be widely deployed before 2015 2020. The IEA estimates that commercial scale production costs of 2 nd generation bio fuels have been estimated to range from US$3.02 3.79/gallon 79/gallonfor ethanol and US$3.79/gallon for synthetic diesel.
North American Cellulosic Ethanol Companies
Cellulosic Ethanol Plants: Locations CE: technology, feedstock, location is key
Cellulosic Ethanol: Timeline Source: Hart Energy Consulting, April 2009 Cellulosic Roll-out will not meet RFS(2) s proposed timeline
Cellulosic Ethanol: Technology IEA, From First to Second Generation Biofuuel Technologies,, 2008 Biochemical offers more upside, but Thermochemical is closer to commercialization
2 nd Generation Biodiesel Companies
2 nd Generation Biodiesel Dominated by Major Corporations
2 nd Generation Biodiesel 2 nd Gen Biodiesel has better attributes t than 1 st Gen.
2 nd Generation Biodiesel Fossil diesel Crude oil production, processing and transport Refining End use 3.8 t CO 2 equivalent for one tonne of fossil diesel NExBTL TM Vegetable oil production, processing and transportation t ti Refining End use 1.7-1.9 t CO 2 equivalent for one tonne of NExBTL TM The greenhouse gas emission over the entire life cycle of NExBTL TM is estimated to be 40 60% less compared to petroleum diesel (IFEU) Greenhouse gas emsissions can be further decreased at the raw material production: better agricultural practises improved handling of waste and effluents NExBTL =LCF
Algal Biodiesel Companies
Algal Biodiesel
Algal Biodiesel Two types of systems have their own unique problems
Algae: Four Revenue Streams Need all four to be profitable Fish Food Chicken Feed Algal Oil
Algal Biofeed The Shortage in Fishmeal Supply is Expected to Drive Up Prices Significantly Price Differential between Fishmeal and Soymeal is expected to be USD 1,000 / MT by 2030 Source: Normalized from Reuters, China Feed, Eurofish, FAO, various industrial sources and reports, 2008
Algal Biofeed 980,000 MT of Fishmeal Substitute Needed by 2013 China alone is expected to consume 400,000000 MT of Fishmeal Substitutes Source: Normalized from Reuters, China Feed, Eurofish, FAO, various industrial sources and reports, 2008
Summary First generation, corn-based ethanol companies have been caught in the credit crises and are struggling to survive. Valero just bought some of Verasun s assets out of bankruptcy. Aventine and a many smaller private companies have declared bankruptcy as well. The cellulosic ethanol industry is also caught up in the credit crisis, but there is more support for their industry. And a few companies were able to raise millions in capital so far this year. Commercial production will depend on oil market price trends and advances in biochemical and termochemical processes. Right now, cellulosic ethanol production is not feasible unless oil price range between $100-$130/barrel. $130/barrel In the future, efficiency improvements in conversion technologies should make cellulosic ethanol competitive when oil prices range from $70-$80/barrel. Depending on feedstock costs and oil prices, second generation biodiesel is competitive now with better characteristics as a blending agent. Algal-based biodiesel is years away, but better co-product production could make algal-based bio-feed production profitable in the near future.
Thank you! Questions? Michael Warren Executive Director, Global Research & Strategic Services Hart Energy Consulting mwarren@hartenergy.com +1.305.421.6345