A New Era for Solar Sarah Kurtz IEEE SCV-PV Series Oct 10, 2018 Palo Alto, CA SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
Overview Solar has grown Growth has been faster than expected Positive feedback encourages future growth Moving into the big time a new era Progress and remaining challenges/opportunities Broader research agenda Cost reduction The Value of the Duck Curve?!? 1-2-3 Approach 1. Renewable electricity 2. Electrify everything 3. Use storage or shift demand to make use of solar energy after the sun sets Using the 1-2-3 Approach could halve the world s primary energy use Big picture: solar should be foundational for our future plans!
Recent and projected growth of solar PV PV has grown much faster than most predictions
Global PV shipments have grown impressively (often doubling every two years) Annual Global PV shipments (GW) 100 80 60 40 20 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Year Data source: Paula Mints, Solar PV Market Research, April 2018
Prices have dropped faster than expected 100 Historic ASP Module ASP (2016$/W) 10 1 Shortage market Surplus market Latest number? 0.1 0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Cumulative Global Shipments (MW) Source: 1976-2017: Paula Mints. "Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity, Shipments, Price & Revenues 2017/2018." SPV Market Research. SPV-Supply6. April 2018.
US PV prices for installed systems Decreased prices Increased deployment Around the world, decreasing prices have increased interest in solar electricity
Solar is a small player, but growing quickly! 10 4 Total Fossils World electricity generation (TWh) 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 Hydro Nuclear Geothermal Biomass Wind Solar Tidal 10-1 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/
Entering new era for solar 10 4 Total Fossils World electricity generation (TWh) 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 Hydro Nuclear Geothermal Biomass Wind Solar Tidal Simple extrapolations enable evaluation of trends (extrapolate 2005-2015 to 2025, which is not so far away!) 10-1 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year Solar has demonstrated the capability to grow quickly, but can the world use this much electricity? In the new era, growth of solar will need to slow, or the world will need to begin electrification in a big way
California s all-renewable electricity hit 83% for 13:00 hour (54% for day) on April 8, 2018 Megawatts 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Hourly Average Breakdown of Renewable Resources Solar Thermal Solar PV Wind 2,000 Small Hydro Biomass Biogas Geothermal 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 In California: April 8, 2018 at 13:00 9 GW (47%) solar electricity 13 GW (68%) non-hydro renewable electricity 15.8 GW (83%) total renewable electricity 19 GW total load 6 GWh (1% of total) were curtailed 2 GWh were exported Time of Day This graph shows the production of various types of renewable generation across the day. 30,000 Hourly Average Breakdown of Total Production By Resource Type System Peak Demand (MW) *one minute average 25,801 Time: 20:15 25,000 20,000 Similar to Germany, much of the balancing is done using imports Megawatts 15,000 10,000 5,000 Hydro Imports Thermal Nuclear Renewables 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Time of Day http://www.caiso.com/market/pages/reportsbulletins/dailyrenewableswatch.aspx
California with an eclipse! 14,000 12,000 10,000 Hourly Average Breakdown of Renewable Resources Solar Thermal In California: On August 21, 2017 Eclipse takes a notch Megawatts 8,000 6,000 Solar PV 4,000 Wind 2,000 Small Hydro Biomass Biogas Geothermal 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Time of Day 40,000 This graph shows the production of various types of renewable 35,000 Hourly Average Breakdown of Total Production By Resource Type 30,000 25,000 Hydro Imports Slide 10 http://www.caiso.com/market/pages/ ReportsBulletins/DailyRenewablesWat ch.aspx Thanks to Tim Dierauf for graph Megawatts 20,000 Thermal 15,000 Nuclear 10,000 Renewables 5,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Time of Day This graph depicts the production of various generating resources across the day.
For California, summer demand > solar July 27, 2017 45,000 Hourly Average Breakdown of Total Production By Resource Type 40,000 Megawatts 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Hydro Imports Thermal Nuclear Renewables 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Time of Day This graph depicts the production of various generating resources across the day. http://www.caiso.com/market/pages/reports Bulletins/DailyRenewablesWatch.aspx In the summer, more solar would be great!
Overview Solar has grown Growth has been faster than expected Positive feedback encourages future growth Moving into the big time a new era Progress and remaining challenges/opportunities Broader research agenda Cost reduction The Value of the Duck Curve?!? 1-2-3 Approach Renewable electricity Electrify everything Use storage or shift demand to make use of solar energy after the sun sets Using the 1-2-3 Approach could halve the world s primary energy use Big picture: solar should be foundational for our future plans
California is developing tools to manage grid Grid integration needs motivate a broader research agenda ~1% of solar electricity is being curtailed, but relative amount of curtailment has decreased California is encouraging installation of storage and purchase of electric vehicles. These efforts are already paying off, showing that high penetration of solar is manageable
The value of solar decreases as solar grows Value = ability to offset electric sector costs, considering Energy Value, Capacity Value, DA Forecast Error, Ancillary Services; Source: Mills and Wiser (2012); California focus Slide courtesy of Ryan Wiser and Andrew Mills PV presents higher value at lower penetration Need to lower cost to reach high penetration!
Technology has evolved steadily PERC cells were developed in 90s, and are now entering the market, decades later
Silicon is currently > 95% of market Fraction of market (%) 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 others CIS CdTe a-si multi Si mono Si ribbon Si 2005 2010 2015 For decades, thin-film PV has been predicted to displace silicon, but not yet. Similarly, monocrystalline silicon has been predicted to gain market share. Will the Top Runner program succeed in changing the balance? Thank you to Paula Mints for this data Year
Perovskites have attracted huge attention
Publications on perovskites rival those for silicon Comparison of Google scholar search for: Silicon solar Perovskite solar
Perovskite status big picture Perovskite small-cell efficiencies have caught up with other thin-film cell efficiencies, but larger areas are difficult for perovskites Perovskite advantages: easy to develop fabrication capability (solution processing is easy for R&D) able to apply easily; maybe like paint Perovskite challenges: scale up to large area and stability
The Duck Curve shows potential imbalance 25 Net load (GW) 20 15 10 Curtailed March 24, 2018 Hour
The Value of the Duck Curve!?! https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/09/17/arizona-utility-pusing-smarter-energy-usageto-maximize-daytime-solar-power/ 25 Net load (GW) 20 15 10 Curtailed March 24, 2018 https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/09/04/how-solarpower-saved-6-7-million-on-a-tuesday/ Hour
Solar and wind have been growing rapidly! World electricity generation (TWh) 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 Total Hydro Nuclear Fossils Geothermal Biomass Wind Solar Tidal World electricity generation from renewables has been growing rapidly (relatively) What happens if this growth continues? 10-1 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/
How much more can renewable electricity grow? California Megawatts electricity 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 April 8, 2018 Hourly Average Breakdown of Total Production By Resource Type Hydro Imports Thermal Nuclear Renewable Renewables electricity 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Time of Day Hourly Average Breakdown of Total Production By Resource Type 35,000 30,000 June 29, 2018 Hydro 25,000 Imports 20,000 Thermal 15,000 Nuclear 10,000 Renewable Renewables 5,000 electricity 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Time of Day http://www.caiso.com/market/pages/reportsbulletins/renewablesreporting.aspx Megawatts California electricity
Entering new era for solar next 10 years will differ from last 10 years!!!! 10 4 Total Fossils World electricity generation (TWh) 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 Hydro Nuclear Geothermal Biomass Wind Solar Tidal Simple extrapolations enable evaluation of trends (extrapolate 2005-2015 to 2025, which is not so far away!) 10-1 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year 2000 Solar has demonstrated the capability to grow quickly, but can the world use this much electricity? In the new era, growth of solar will need to slow, or the world will need to begin electrification in a big way 2005 2010 2015
Overview Solar has grown Growth has been faster than expected Positive feedback encourages future growth Moving into the big time a new era Progress and remaining challenges/opportunities Broader research agenda Cost reduction The Value of the Duck Curve?!? 1-2-3 Approach 1. Renewable electricity 2. Electrify everything 3. Use storage or shift demand to make use of solar energy after the sun sets Using the 1-2-3 Approach could halve the world s primary energy use Big picture: solar should be foundational for our future plans!
1-2-3 Approach to 100% Renewable Energy 2. Electrification 1. Renewable electricity 3. Flexible grid Positive feedback will make it easier! Next slides will describe why these three will each help the other two
Electrification à Renewable electricity Electrification requires more electricity, allowing solar to continue to grow rapidly! 10 4 Total Fossils World electricity generation (TWh) 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 Hydro Nuclear Geothermal Biomass Wind Solar Tidal 1. Renewable electricity 2. Electrification 3. Flexible grid 10-1 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year
Electrification à Flexible Grid Electrification enables new ways to make the grid flexible 1. Renewable electricity 2. Electrification 3. Flexible grid Electricity for Transportation Heating/cooling Chemicals can be fabricated when electricity is abundant
Flexible Gridà Electrification A heat pump with coeff. of performance = 3 becomes attractive during off peak Natural gas price Heating cost/kwh Electricity price Heating cost if COP = 3 $10/1000 cu ft $0.03 $0.12/kWh $0.04/kWh $0.06/kWh Data source for average U.S. data (top line): EIA $0.02/kWh A flexible grid provides variable electricity prices, making electrification more attractive using off-peak rates 2. Electrification Gasoline price Cost for gas* Electricity price Cost for EV electricity* $2.50/gallon $0.10/mile $0.12/kWh $0.03/mile $0.06/kWh $0.015/kWh *Assumptions: Internal combustion engine gets 25 miles/gallon Tesla Model 3 travels 310 miles on a 75 kwh battery 1. Renewable electricity 3. Flexible grid
Renewable electricity à Electrification Growth of solar reduces prices, enabling electrification 100 Historic ASP 2. Electrification Module ASP (2016$/W) 10 1 1. Renewable electricity 3. Flexible grid 0.1 0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Cumulative Global Shipments (MW) Source: 1976-2017: Paula Mints. "Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity, Shipments, Price & Revenues 2017/2018." SPV Market Research. SPV-Supply6. April 2018.
Renewable Electricityà Flexible Grid More renewable electricity enables electricity at all hours California Megawatts electricity 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 April 8, 2018 Hourly Average Breakdown of Total Production By Resource Type Hydro Thermal Imports Nuclear Renewable Renewables electricity 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Time of Day As more RE is on the grid, the lights can stay on even at midnight with a small wind 1. Renewable electricity 2. Electrification 3. Flexible grid
Flexible Grid à Renewable Electricity Flexible grid enables renewable electricity 2. Electrification Net load (GW) 25 20 15 10 Curtailed March 24, 2018 1. Renewable electricity 3. Flexible grid Hour A flexible grid enables more renewable electricity without curtailment
How are we doing? EV adoption Heat pump adoption Electrolysis 2. Electrification H 2 Solar and wind 1. Renewable electricity 3. Flexible grid Li-ion Batteries Time-of-use rates Balanced 1-2-3 Approach will make fastest progress!
Overview Solar has grown Growth has been faster than expected Positive feedback encourages future growth Moving into the big time a new era Progress and remaining challenges/opportunities Broader research agenda Cost reduction The Value of the Duck Curve?!? 1-2-3 Approach 1. Renewable electricity 2. Electrify everything 3. Use storage or shift demand to make use of solar energy after the sun sets Using the 1-2-3 Approach could halve the world s energy use Big picture: solar should be foundational for our future plans
How do we count the energy we use? For coal-generated electricity, we count the energy of the coal taken from the ground
How do we count the energy we use? For solar electricity, shall we count the sunshine striking the array, or just the electricity? Solar plants typically report the MWh of electricity, but not MWh of insolation
Electricity is only a small fraction of our energy use Energy use Some of the total energy use (40% in the U.S.) is for generating electricity
Electricity is only a small fraction of our energy use Energy use Renewable Elec. Some of the total energy use (40% in the U.S.) is for generating electricity
The value of electrification of transportation Compare: Average U.S. vehicle: 25 mpg Fuel-efficient car: Honda Civic: 58.9 mpg EV charged from coal EV charged from solar Thank you to Ashling Leilaeioun for help with this graph Similar value of electrification of other sectors
Electrification and renewable electricity can help Electrification? Energy use Together, may be able to reduce energy use by factor of two Renewable Elec.
Summary and conclusions Solar has grown faster than expected Moving into the big time a new era Progress and remaining challenges/opportunities Broader research agenda Cost reduction Big picture: Solar can bring a foundational solution using the 1-2-3 approach to lead to reduction in overall energy use 1. Renewable electricity 2. Electrification 3. Match the supply and the demand