Black Book EditorialCAP Editorial New Car Sales As reported by the SMMT, 462,517 cars were registered in September 2015, an increase of 8.6 over the same month last year and the highest September on record. Year-to-date, total registrations passed the 2 million figure in September for the first time since 2004. Compared to the first 9 months of last year, the market was up 7.1 and there have now been 43 consecutive months of registration growth. Digging deeper into the detail, Private registrations increased by just 6,642 units or 3.0 in September, whereas Fleet and Business increased by a huge 30,014 units or 14.7. Daily Rental sits within these fleet figures and that area also increased by 14 during the month. Year-to-date Rental volumes were up 8.0, so broadly in line with the market, meaning manufacturers may have used this route as a tactical way of achieving targeted market share in September. Whilst there is currently no defined way of measuring pre-registrations (cars registered tactically, by manufacturers, or dealers, usually towards the end of the month, without an end customer), anecdotally CAP have been informed of large numbers of cars being registered via this route. Some dealer groups have taken on many hundreds of these cars. The issue with this is that the cars quickly become delivery mileage, used vehicles and have an impact on values, particularly of late-plates, but this can also wash down to older cars that need a reasonable price gap to keep them an attractive proposition for consumers. Indeed, during October a number of 65 plate used cars had already appeared on popular used car websites, some priced lower than older plate examples with higher miles. This is despite guidelines stating the cars cannot be re-sold for 90 days from registration. Diesel Emissions Crisis Towards the end of September, the Volkswagen Group defeat device software scandal, used in the USA to beat strict NOx particulate emissions testing, hit the consumer headlines. The immediate question was: How would this affect the UK and in particular, how would it affect current used car and future residual values? CAP has the advantage of Black Book Live, where wholesale prices are analysed on a daily basis. Whilst some industry commentators and media outlets stated Volkswagen diesel values were adversely affected almost immediately, this was simply not the case. Tracking the data since the issue first became apparent, prices did fall, but they also fell in the overall market, as they did at the same time over the last few years. Where particular VW diesels dropped in price, the prices had been dropping prior to the crisis, and where they have been affected by more than the market norm, it would appear to be due to high volumes, in particular the 1.6TDi 105ps engine, which takes up 75 of all Golf Diesel trade data received by CAP. That is not to say that consumers and the trade continued buying at the same levels there has been some reticence and this may have had a small impact on prices, but it is difficult to gauge how much of this is due to the emissions scandal and how much is due to a falling market and high volumes. Black Book Live will continue to report on this over the coming days, weeks and months, by not only examining daily transaction prices, but also the volumes of unsold cars. It will be interesting to see if these unsold cars hit the used car market in numbers over the rest of the year, thus adversely affecting values. Used Car - Retail The retail market dropped off slightly during October, particularly from around the middle of the month. November 2015 61 of dealers responding to CAPs monthly survey reported that physical footfall was down compared to September this is the highest percentage all year, some 10 more than the previous high of June, with only 17 stating footfall had increased. 52 of respondents stated that online activity had also declined, again this is the highest percentage all year, and only 19 cited increases. However, what has been gathered is that those consumers that were still enquiring were serious about buying, rather than just testing the water.
Auction Activity From around the middle of October, the auction halls finally started to see the expected increase in volumes from the September part-exchanges and fleet returns and at this point, the market weakening accelerated, coinciding with less buyers in the halls. With this trade demand dropping off slightly, there were wild variances in conversion rates between different auction venues and days. Over the course of a 5 week period, encompassing the end of September and two-thirds of October, conversion rates overall dropped by around 10, sitting in the mid-to-high 60 region. Whilst this appears to be fairly dramatic, it is not unusual for the time of year, and is in line with October 2014. When analysing October s wholesale sold volumes year-on-year, using an equivalent number of working days, the numbers were almost exactly the same, but it needs to be remembered that there are more cars in the used market than a year ago, so more unsold vehicles will continue to do the rounds until they sell. At this point it is important to point out that used car values are unlikely to increase in the short-term and vendors that price cars commensurate with their condition, using CAP Average and Below, as well as Clean, as a benchmark are likely to yield a stronger return and sell sooner. In particular, prices of late-plate cars suffered at auction, with conversion rates particularly low for these vehicles. Used Cars - Trade Values Black Book Live came into its own in October as prices dropped, as predicted, and in a very similar fashion to the same point last year. With supply levels steadily increasing and demand dropping off, simple economics decreed that prices would be affected. Most volume ranges slipped in value through the month, with many of the drops being little and often, illustrating weakness as it appeared in the market. Examples of some mainstream models that dropped in value, by around 1-2 each time, on around 3 or 4 occasions through the month were the Vauxhall Corsa, Ford Focus and Volkswagen Golf. There was certainly no shortage of vehicles available from these and other high-volume manufacturers. All of the main sectors were affected by the downturn, with city cars and convertibles the hardest hit in percentage terms. The former mainly affected by increased volumes and pressure from keen new car finance offers, the latter due to seasonal factors. Larger SUVs fared slightly better than the rest of the market and their smaller counterparts. One point of note is that, despite the adverse publicity surrounding diesel vehicles, values of diesel models overall actually dropped by less than petrol ones, in percentage terms. This illustrates that buyers and consumers have not fallen out of love with the diesel engine just yet, still recognising its fuel economy and performance benefits plus low CO2 credentials, particularly on newer models. What Next? The drop in values into November, based off Black Book Live movements in October, was very similar to the same month in 2014. What followed during the final 2 months of the year, last time around, were cumulative decreases of over 5, leading to drops of 3.1 for December s monthly Black Book and of 2.2 for January s (at 3-years, 60,000 miles). With volumes ahead of where they were a year ago, and only likely to increase, and demand similar, there is little to suggest an improvement on last year s figures. With many franchised dealers stocked up with late-plate, pre-registered vehicles, they are likely to be more reluctant than they were previously to purchase short-cycle, ex-company cars, demonstrators and rental buy-back returns from their respective manufacturers. This could well drive down both wholesale and retail prices on these particular cars at this age, as franchised dealers negotiate hard, or manufacturers decide to sell outside the network, to car supermarkets or similar. The emissions scandal is likely to remain a hot topic, and with plenty of stock around, there is still the potential for some values to be affected, at least in the short to medium term. Longer term, there is no reason to reflect any changes in CAP s Gold Book values, although much depends on how the affected manufacturers react to the issues.
Whether weakness is in the overall market over the final quarter, or within specific brands, fuel types, engines or trims, it will be fully reflected real-time in Black Book Live over the potentially more volatile upcoming weeks. Black Book November 15 - Average Value Movements 1 yr/10k 3 yr/60k 5 yr/80k City Car (2.7) (3.3) (3.2) Supermini (2.5) (2.8) (2.8) Lower Medium (2.4) (2.7) (3.1) Upper Medium (1.8) (1.6) (1.8) Executive (2.0) (2.0) (1.9) Large Executive (2.1) (1.5) (1.4) MPV (2.1) (2.0) (2.1) SUV (1.1) (1.2) (1.5) Electric (1.7) (2.8) (3.2) Convertible (3.4) (4.3) (4.7) Coupe Cabriolet (4.1) (4.0) (4.5) Sports (0.6) (0.7) (0.7) Luxury Executive (1.0) (0.9) (0.9) Supercar (1.1) 0.5 1.4 Average Movement (2.1) (2.2) (2.4) ( ) Denotes negative percentages
Market Sentiment by Sector FIAT 500 (08- ) FORD KA (09- ) TOYOTA AYGO (09-14) CITROEN C1 (09-14) PEUGEOT 107 (08-14) 19.3 8.2 7.6 7.6 6.4 City Car: This sector saw values continue to decline during October. Extra stock in the wholesale market, mainly due to part exchanges from the September plate and slightly lower buyer demand, caused pressure on prices. This pressure increased from the second week of October and values declined consistently from that point. The table saw the Fiat 500 (08- ) remain in the top position but its share decreased by 4.4. The Ford Ka (09- ) moved from 3rd to 2nd place with a share increase of 1.1. The Citroen C1 (09-14) moved from 2nd place last time to 4th place this, with a drop in share of 2.1. The Toyota Aygo jumped from 5th to 3rd with an increase in share of 2.2. The Peugeot 107 (08-14) dropped to 5th, even though it increased share by 1.0. Notable performers were the Hyundai i10 (11-14) which moved down a little less than the sector average, but saw a bigger decline on the Active models as these saw a poor open market performance. The Kia Picanto (07-11) remained level; a strong performance considering the majority of the sector reduced in value. Renault Twingo (07-12) also went down, to reflect a weak market performance, but the Freeway fared better and reduced less. FORD FIESTA (08- ) VAUXHALL CORSA (11-15) VAUXHALL CORSA (06-11) FORD FIESTA (08- ) DIESEL VOLKSWAGEN POLO (09- ) 12.5 9.4 6.2 5.1 4.5 Supermini: October was a very active month for this sector, with part exchanges from the September plate change arriving into the market in numbers. Late-plated vehicles were readily available to buy in the wholesale market from a host of manufacturers. Retailers saw a slowdown in customer activity, which is not out of the ordinary for the time of year, and this conspired to weaken values. The Highest Trade Sales Volume table shows the same vehicle ranges as last month, and, what has been noticeable, is that all five model ranges moved down in value by more than the sector average. These key models for the sector saw the balance between supply and demand favour those looking for stock over those disposing of vehicles. In the coming weeks retailers will continue to push promotional activity to ensure that the highest levels of sales can be met in the current climate. VOLKSWAGEN GOLF (09-14) DIESEL FORD FOCUS (11- ) VAUXHALL ASTRA (09- ) DIESEL FORD FOCUS (11- ) DIESEL AUDI A3 (08-13) DIESEL 7.5 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.0 Lower Medium: Auction volumes throughout October steadily increased and demand slowly dropped away, resulting in values reducing in Black Book Live through the month. The table saw the Volkswagen Golf (09-14) Diesel returning to the top spot and the Audi A3 (08-13) Diesel return to the top 5. All of the vehicles in the top 5 saw values drop significantly due to the high volumes in the marketplace. Late-plated cars came under further pressure as many retailers, including car supermarkets, advertised nearly new vehicles, including 65 plates, at particularly competitive prices. As dealer forecourts remained heavily stocked with late plated cars, it will be interesting to see how manufacturers and rental companies manage disposals over the coming months. October also saw a heavy focus on Volkswagen products. Although Golf (09-14) and (13- ) Diesel saw values fall, it was roughly in line with the market and other volume ranges within this sector, with the exception of the 1.6TDi 105ps which dropped further, due mainly to high volumes.
VAUXHALL INSIGNIA (09-13) DIESEL BMW 3 SERIES (08-12) DIESEL BMW 3 SERIES (12- ) DIESEL VOLKSWAGEN PASSAT (11-15) DIESEL MERC C CLASS (11-14) DIESEL 10.8 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 Upper Medium: After a steady start to October, which only saw a slight price drop, it was the second half of the month when this sector saw a more significant fall in values. All models in the table saw values reduce, the largest being Vauxhall Insignia (09-13) Diesel and Volkswagen Passat (11-15) Diesel, both dropping around 3. Other notable performers were Ford Mondeo (14- ) Diesel, Skoda Octavia (09-13) Diesel and Merc C Class (14- ) Diesel, which all saw around a 3 drop. The reduction for the Volkswagen CC (12- ) Diesel was slightly more severe at around 4. Many other models in this sector saw reductions in values, mostly down to high numbers in the open market, dealers having plenty of stock or a weakening in appetite. This sector will continue to see values under pressure and as we move closer towards the year end, and with some people already talking about Christmas, vendors and wholesale suppliers will be keen to move stock on, and possibly accept the highest bid or risk a build-up of unsold stock. VAUXHALL ZAFIRA (05-15) PEUGEOT 3008 (09- ) DIESEL FIAT 500L (13- ) DIESEL VAUXHALL ZAFIRA (05-15) DIESEL NISSAN NOTE (09-13) 7.8 5.0 5.0 4.8 3.6 MPV: Although this sector doesn t always see the same fluctuations in volume as other sectors, it is not immune from a change in market dynamics. Volumes remained fairly consistent throughout October, whilst at the same time demand for stock waned a little, causing the balance of supply and demand to tilt in favour of the buyer. As a result, this sector saw values move down overall, with the drops being gradual through October. Scrutinising the performance of petrol and diesel models, showed that demand for both fuel types eased, as expected for the time of year, and overall diesel has performed the slightly better of the two. The Highest Trade Sales Volume table shows once more that the Vauxhall Zafira (05-15) has seen the highest proportion of sales, closely followed by the Peugeot 3008 (09- ) Diesel. However, it is worth noting the growing popularity of the Fiat 500L (13- ) Diesel which was 3rd compared to 5th last time around, with a percentage share increase of 1.3. As volumes increase, it will be interesting to see how prices are affected for this model. BMW 5 SERIES (10-13) DIESEL AUDI A6 (11- ) DIESEL MERC E CLASS (09-13) DIESEL MERC E CLASS (13- ) DIESEL JAGUAR XF (08-11) DIESEL 18.0 11.8 11.2 7.1 4.5 Executive: This sector like most others, saw values decline, no real surprise for the time of year. The table saw the top position still being occupied by the BMW 5 Series (10-13) Diesel with an increase in share of 3.2. The Merc E Class (09-13) Diesel remained in 3rd place with an increase in share of 1.8. The Audi A6 (11- ) Diesel kept the same position as previous but with a small decline in share, of 0.2. The Merc E Class (13- ) saw a share increase of 1.7 and the Jaguar XF (11- ) Diesel saw a decline in share of 2.4. As a result, these two swapped places in the table. Of note in October were the BMW 5 Series (13- ) Diesel, which saw values decline due to a weak market performance, however, the late plates performed slightly better in the market and were not hit as hard. The Merc S Class (13- ) Diesel saw particularly weak market performance and values declined more than the sector average. NISSAN QASHQAI (10-14) DIESEL NISSAN JUKE (10- ) KIA SPORTAGE (10- ) DIESEL NISSAN QASHQAI (10-14) NISSAN JUKE (10- ) DIESEL 7.3 5.0 4.7 4.6 3.5 SUV: Overall movements for this sector declined slightly more than expected for the time of year, compared to the last couple of years, but that is no great surprise taking into account just how much the medium size segment has grown over that period. Many movements on vehicle ranges where volume has increased now closely emulate their lower medium counterpart, which it more often than not competes with. Where volume is much lower, and where franchises are predominantly driven by these types of cars, values tend not to have fallen as much, particularly for various Land Rover products. As always over the next few months the weather will play a big part in some of this sectors fortune, but more often now style and lifestyle drives many purchases. Nissan Qashqai (10-14) Diesel and Nissan Juke (10- ) still dominate the table with Kia Sportage (10- ) Diesel slowly creeping upwards as more cars continue to return to market.
MERC E CLASS CABRIOLET (10-13) DIESEL BMW 1 SERIES CONVERTIBLE (08-13) DIESEL AUDI A3 CABRIOLET (08-13) DIESEL BMW MINI CONVERTIBLE (10-15) MAZDA MX-5 (09-15) 7.2 6.1 5.6 5.1 4.5 Convertible: This sector continued to decline in value throughout October with reductions in value being applied week-on-week, as predicted and demonstrated in Black Book Live. These reductions were relatively typical seasonal adjustments for the time of year, with very few ranges escaping the decline in values. The highest volume cars in this sector, as listed here, have all suffered reductions of around 5 or more, as they came under pressure from typical supply and demand metrics. It is expected that this trend will continue until at least the end of the year, as most dealers will be nervous of stocking higher risk cars until demand returns. There will be exceptions to this, as some dealers will take advantage of the seasonally low values, particularly if they have less stringent stocking policies to adhere to. AUDI TT (06-14) AUDI TT (08-14) DIESEL PEUGEOT RCZ (10- ) AUDI S3 (13- ) AUDI TT (14- ) 18.9 11.6 6.0 5.4 4.2 Sports: This sector declined in value but the reductions continue to be lower than for the majority of other sectors. As predicted in last month s editorial, dealers were willing to pay strong prices for most cars within this sector on the basis that demand remained relatively strong and supply for cars in the right colour, condition and specification was relatively thin, helping to keep values fairly stable. Generally this sector is also less affected by the pressures of late-plate, tactical registrations and short-cycle cars, which also helps their cause. We expect further reductions going forward as general volumes in the market increase and apply pressure but these should continue to be lower than most other sectors, as dealers choose these cars on the basis that there is less competition on the forecourts.
Notable Movers 3yr 60k Generation Name Min Max Avg NISSAN QASHQAI (10-14) DIESEL -600-225 -427 VOLKSWAGEN GOLF (09-14) DIESEL -550-250 -422 AUDI A3 (08-13) DIESEL -600-300 -413 MERC E CLASS (09-13) DIESEL -500-300 -407 FORD FOCUS (11- ) -400-175 -336 BMW 5 SERIES (10-13) DIESEL -450-250 -334 AUDI A4 (12-15) DIESEL -400-200 -274 VOLKSWAGEN PASSAT (11-15) DIESEL -350-225 -271 MERC C CLASS (11-14) DIESEL -350-200 -246 VAUXHALL ASTRA (09- ) -300-150 -230 VAUXHALL INSIGNIA (09-13) DIESEL -275-175 -229 NISSAN JUKE (10- ) -300-175 -228 HONDA JAZZ (08-15) -275-175 -227 VOLKSWAGEN POLO (09- ) -250-125 -200 TOYOTA YARIS (11- ) -250-150 -196 FIAT 500 (08- ) -225-150 -189 FORD FIESTA (08- ) -250-125 -183 VAUXHALL CORSA (11-15) -225-75 -117 BMW 3 SERIES (12- ) DIESEL -150-75 -112 HYUNDAI I10 (11-14) -150-50 -90