Small Cars: Reality or Myth? Michael Robinet Director, Global Production Forecasts IHS Automotive February 24, 2011
Agenda Going Global US Sales Prospects NA Sourcing Summary
Global Scale High Volume, Global Platforms Top 10 by 2016 Segment (Top Nameplate) Honda - GSP Ford - B2e 1.6 1.7 B (Fit) B (Fiesta) Every top 10 global platform has/will have exposure to North America Honda - C5 Hyundai - PB Ford - C1 MCA GM - Global Delta/D2XX Renault/Nissan - B VW - MQB A/B Hyundai - HD Toyota - MC-M 1.8 2.0 2.0 536 2.1 2.9 2.9 C (Civic) B (Accent) C (Focus) C (Astra/Cruze) B (Versa/Clio) C/D (Golf) C (Elantra) 3.7 C/D (Camry) March of global platforms into developing markets accounts for overall growth Volume expansion also driven by major OEM platform consolidation in B- through D-segments and enhances design flexibility Platform consolidation alters competitive dynamic toward larger, more diversified players 0 1 2 3 4 Millions 3
Global Segment Analysis 2010-2013 2010 Global Segments in Millions 25 20 15 10 5 0 A B C D E F-F 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Segment Changes in % 2010-2013 100% North America shifted output from full-frame offerings to B-, C- and D-segment offerings, due to higher commodity costs and regulatory constraints. 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% A-Segment D-Segment B-Segment Full-Frame C-Segment The average age of core B-, C- and D-segment vehicles in the market will decline, due to consumer demand and requirements for integrating new fuel economy technologies. The B- and C-segments are the key growth markets in Brazil and China. Contribution to Growth 2010-2013
Global Light Vehicle Sales A Through C Segments Dominate 100 90 80 70 CAGR (2010-17) 2.8% 5.8% Millions 60 50 40 3.2% 30 67% 20 10 0 52% 2002 2006 2010 2014 2017 7.2% D-FFSegment Developed Mkts A-C Segment Developed Mkts D-FF Segment Emerging Mkts A-C Segment Emerging Mkts 5
Agenda Going Global US Sales Prospects NA Sourcing Summary
Dimension Creep Honda Civic 1978 OAL* 150, WB** 87 1988 OAL 163, WB 97 1998 OAL 175, WB 103 2008 OAL 177, WB 106 Honda Accord 1978 OAL 163, WB 94 1988 OAL 180, WB 102 1998 OAL 189, WB 107 2008 OAL 194, WB 110 Smaller segment car sizes have inched up steadily over the past 30 years - and especially in the last 10 years. Today s Toyota Yaris 4-door B-Car is approximately the size of a 10-year-old Civic C-Car. OAL 169, WB 100 * OAL Overall Length; ** WB Wheel Base 7
Limits Of Consumer Pull Current Market Conditions Fuel prices: moderately stable; relatively low Constrained consumers However Price Per Barrel In US Dollars $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Oil - WTI (US$ per barrel) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2000-2015 Profile Of American Drivers 2000 2005 Gen X 20% Gen Y 11% Baby Boomer s 36% Depress 19% Quiets 14% Gen X 20% Gen Y 20% Depress 12% Baby Boomer s 34% Quiets 14% 2010 2015-57% will be under 50 years old Gen Y 29% Gen X 19% Depress 5% Quiets 13% Baby Boomer s 34% Gen Y 27% Gen Z 12% Gen X 18% Quiets 12% Baby Boomer s 31%
A-Segment Sales - US Thousands 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Despite the struggles of the only entry in this segment, the Smart ForTwo, more OEMs are bringing vehicles into this segment. Electrification will be prevalent 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Smart ForTwo Fiat 500 Chevy Spark Mitsubishi imiev Scion iq % Share of TIV 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Share of Market 10
B-Segment Sales - US 0.9 6% OEMs are introducing many new models but volume has never been particularly strong. 5% 0.8 Millions 0.7 4% 0.6 0.5 3% 0.4 2% 0.3 0.2 Share of Market 1.0 1% 0.1 0.0 0% 2005 2006 2007 VW Nissan Honda Chrysler/Dodge 2008 2009 Toyota Mitsibishi Chevrolet MINI 2010 2011 2012 2013 Scion Mazda Ford BMW 2014 2015 Suzuki Kia Smart % Share of TIV 11
C-Segment Sales - US 5.0 30% Model proliferation is high, content is emphasized 4.5 Millions 3.5 20% 3.0 2.5 15% 2.0 10% 1.5 1.0 Share of Market 25% 4.0 5% 0.5 0.0 0% 2005 Other Audi Subaru Chevrolet 2006 2007 Jeep Chrysler Mazda Honda 2008 2009 Cadillac Scion Hyundai Ford 2010 2011 2012 Buick Mitsubishi Volkswagen Share of TIV 2013 Lexus Dodge Toyota 2014 2015 Lincoln Kia Nissan 12
Agenda Going Global US Sales Prospects NA Sourcing Summary
A Through C-Segment Production - NAFTA 6 Growth in Mexico, import substitution, bodystyle proliferation, export opportunities and market dynamics drive a rising share in NAFTA 30% 5 25% Share of Production Millions 35% 4 20% 3 15% 2 10% 1 5% 0 0% 2007 2008 2009 Other OEMs Toyota Honda Share of NAFTA Output 2010 2011 2012 Fiat/Chrysler Volkswagen General Motors 2013 2014 2015 Hyundai Renault/Nissan Ford 14
Agenda Going Global US Sales Prospects NA Sourcing Summary
Summary Global platforms add a new dynamic export sourcing, greater economies of scale, increase content/value CAFE is a driver though ownership costs and demographics are also critical Demand from Mexico is a key anchor for B-segment volume in NAFTA Increased production flexibility reduces downstream risk versus last generation efforts
Thank You! Michael Robinet Michael. Robinet@ihs.com Mike.Jackson@ihs.com