The Future of Vehicle Safety Presented at the University of Minnesota CTS Winter Luncheon 2008 Ron Medford Senior Associate Administrator, Vehicle Safety 1
Top 10 Leading Causes of Death in U.S. 2002 data, by Age Group 2
Motor Vehicle Traffic Crashes 2006 42,642 fatalities 1.42 fatalities per 100million VMT 2,575,000 injures 3
Economic Cost of Crashes $230 billion total $32 billion medical cost $51 billion for impaired driving $17.5 billion for failure to use belts ('03) Source: The Economic Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes, 2000 4
Vehicle Miles Traveled 1966 2006 (in Billions) 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 Source: FHWA 5
Persons Killed and Rate 60,000 6.00 Persons Killed 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 Fatalities / 100M VMT 0 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 0.00 Persons Killed Fatalities / 100M VMT Source: FARS and FHWA 6
Motor Vehicle Crash & Injury Rates Police Reported 400 350 Crashes/Injuries/100M VMT 300 250 200 150 100 50 Crashes / 100M VMT Injuries / 100M VMT 0 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Crash Year Source: 2004 Annual Assessment 7
Crashes of all Severities 2005 GES Backing 2% Opposite Direction 2% Crossing Paths 25% Animal 4% Other 4% Off-Roadway 23% Pedestrian 1% Pedalcyclist 1% Lane Change 9% Rear-End 28% 8
Passenger Car / Light Truck Fatalities 2006 FARS Passenger Car Light Truck 13% Impact with Nonfixed Object 13% Noncollision 32% Frontal Impact with Another MV 13% 23% Noncollision Impact with Nonfixed Objec 37% Frontal Impact with Another MV 18% Impact with Fixed Object 1% Other/Unknown Impact with Another MV Rear Impact with Another MV 5% 18% Side Impact with Another MV 12% Impact with Fixed Object 1% Other/Unknown Impact with Another MV Side Impact with Another MV Rear Impact with Another MV 5% 9% 9
Haddon Matrix Human Vehicle Environment 10 Pre-Event Event Post-Event Event Event
The Crash Timeline - Prevention PREVENTION SEVERITY REDUCTION INJURY MITIGATION MEDICAL ATTENTION HUMAN / PRE - EVENT Volvo forward collision warning 11
The Crash Timeline Severity Reduction PREVENTION SEVERITY REDUCTION INJURY MITIGATION MEDICAL ATTENTION -1000-500 VEHICLE / EVENT 12
The Crash Timeline Injury Mitigation PREVENTION SEVERITY REDUCTION INJURY MITIGATION MEDICAL ATTENTION 0 200msec. VEHICLE / EVENT 13
The Crash Timeline Medical Attention PREVENTION SEVERITY REDUCTION INJURY MITIGATION MEDICAL ATTENTION ENVIROMENT / POST EVENT 14
Lives Saved by Belts and Combined Safety Technologies - 1960-2002 350,000 300,000 250,000 Lives Saved By All Other Safety Features Lives Saved By Safety Belts Alone Lives Saved 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Total Lives Saved 328,551 0 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 Year Source: NHTSA 15
Safety Belt Use Rates in US Percentage Use 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 14 14 21 37 42 45 46 49 59 62 66 67 68 68 69 69 67 71 73 75 79 80 82 81 Click It Or Ticket 10 0 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Year 1% Increase in Belt Use Saves 268 Lives in US 16
Effectiveness of Safety Belts 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Frontal Impact Near Side Far Side Rollover (Primary) Rear Impacts & Others Car 3 Pt. Belts Light Trucks 3 Pt. Belts Source: Fatality Reduction by Safety Belts For Front-Seat Occupants of Cars And Light Trucks, Charles J. Kahane, Ph.D, December 2000, DOT HS 809 199 17
NCAP Revisions Improved crashworthiness ratings Introduction of crash avoidance and advanced technologies 18
Side Impact Updated FMVSS No. 214 Provide greater head and chest protection We estimate that this final rule will prevent at least 266 fatalities and 352 serious injuries a year when fully implemented throughout the light vehicle fleet Pole test New dummies 19
Crash Types 2005 GES and FARS These 4 crash types = 85% of all crashes Run-Off-Road (23%) Rear-End (28%) Lane Change (9%) Crossing Path (25%) And ~75% of all fatalities Run-Off-Road (41%) Rear-End (5%) Lane Change (4%) Crossing Path (14%) 20
Crash Causal Factors Driver Related Factors 90% Vehicle Related 2% Road Surface 8% Source: Syntheses Report: Examination of Target Vehicular Crashes and Potential ITS Countermeasures, Wassim Najm, et al, DOT HS 808 263, 1995, Section 3 21
Evolution of Vehicle Electronics Crash Avoidance and Injury Mitigation The Future Information 22
Crash Prevention What can Advanced Technologies do to Help Prevent Crashes? Augment driver performance Adaptive cruise control Brake assist Drowsy-driver monitoring Night Vision Warnings of specific types of impending crash; such as rear-end, lane/road departure, intersection, etc. Take control of the vehicle Intervene when driver action would be insufficient to prevent a crash (ESC and Rollover prevention) Alcohol detection Augment other vehicle systems DSRP - vehicle to vehicle communications 23
Rollover 2006 Data R/Os account for (pass vehicles): ~3% of the crashes ~35% of occupant fatalities 10,698 killed 8,826 in single vehicle crashes Percent occupant fatalities result from R/O crashes 59% SUV occupants deaths from R/O 47% pickup occupant deaths from R/O 24
Rollover Activities Safety Belts Electronic Stability Control NCAP Rollover Prevention Ejection Mitigation Roof Strength 25
Our Preliminary Analysis on ESC Benefits State Data (5 states) Passenger Cars SUV s Passenger Cars SUV s Effectiveness of ESC Vehicle Type 1997 2002 Single Vehicle Crashes 1997 2003 Fatal Single Vehicle Crashes Percent Reduction for Single Vehicle Crashes 35% 67% 30% 63% 26
Longer Term New ITS Safety Initiatives Integrated Vehicle-Based Safety Systems (IVBSS) Intersection Crash Prevention Systems (CICAS) Vehicle-Infrastructure Integration (VII) Next generation 911 27
Integrated Vehicle-Based Safety Systems Integrates into the same platform Rear-end collision avoidance Road departure crash prevention Lane change and merge systems 28
Cooperative Intersection Collision Avoidance Systems (CICAS) Every year at intersections: 9,100 Fatalities 1,500,000 Injuries 3,000,000 Crashes To develop and demonstrate cooperative intersection collision avoidance systems To assess the value and acceptance of collision avoidance systems that utilize cooperative communication 29
Vehicle Infrastructure Integration (VII) Facilitates implementation of FCC allocation of frequency at 5.9 GHz for safety communication Creating an enabling communication infrastructure Emphasis on safety applications Potential to reduce congestion 30
Crash Mitigation What can Advanced Technologies do to Help Reduce Injuries? Take control of the vehicle to mitigate the severity of a crash Automatic braking Automatic steering Belt pre-tensioners Close windows Prepare restraint systems for a pending crash Improves the performance of restraint systems in preventing or mitigating the severity of injuries 31
Post Crash What can Advanced Technologies do to Help Improve Outcomes? Automatic Collision Notification Calls for help Advanced ACN Assesses crash severity Transmits urgency information (Severity of crash which is related to possible injuries) Improves crash occupant triage Event Data Recorders (EDR) Cover removed 32
Advanced Technology What level of reliability is needed to: Convince consumers that they ll work and be worth the money Convince manufacturers to put them in their vehicles How much of the safety technical function can be taken away from consumers without causing false reliance? 33
NHTSA s Role Continue to encourage the refinement and integration of advanced technologies through ITS Evaluate technology effectiveness Help ensure minimum performance Educate consumers Encourage the market (e.g. NCAP) where appropriate Regulate (e.g. ESC) where appropriate 34
Alcohol-Related Fatalities & Rate (per 100M VMT) 1982 2006 30000 1.8 25000 1.6 1.4 20000 1.2 15000 1 0.8 10000 0.6 5000 0.4 0.2 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 0 35
Drivers (Veh & MC) Involved In Fatal Crashes with Positive BACs, 2006 Number of Drivers 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Legal Limit In 50 States Median, 2003.16 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 BAC (g/dl) 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45+ Source: 2006 Annual Assessment 36
Development of Advanced Alcohol Sensing Technology Cooperative research and development effort NHTSA and Automotive Coalition for Traffic Safety (ACTS) 5-Year effort NHTSA contributing up to $1M per year with ACTS matching or exceeding NHTSA s contribution Concept In-vehicle capability to detect impairment before vehicle can be operated Significant technical and public acceptance challenge 37
Potential Technical Areas of Promise Volpe conducted a technology review Potential technologies include: Breath Alcohol Ignition Interlock Device (BAIID) Tissue Spectroscopy Transdermal Detectors Ethanol Vapor Detectors Occular Measures 38
SAAB Alchokey & P.A.S. III Alcohol Screening System Is an adaptation of an antitheft system Includes a mouthpiece at the end of the key fob, in which a driver blows If alcohol is detected, it will not allow the engine to start (i.e., interlock) Passive system that sniffs ambient air Applications include testing for alcohol in exhaled breath or vehicles/other enclosed spaces, or over open containers SAAB Alchokey P.A.S. III Alcohol Screening System 39
Intermediate Steps with Advanced Technology Vehicle technologies that can detect distraction/impairment are being developed What is the appropriate action if the vehicle detects an impaired driver during operation? August 2007 Nissan announced a concept car featuring multiple preventative features Alcohol Odor Sensors Facial Recognition System 40
Heavy Truck Fatalities 2006 FARS Impact with Nonfixed Object 4% 10% Impact w ith Fixed Object 1% Other/Unknown Impact with Another MV 15% Rear Impact w ith Another MV 11% Noncollision Side Impact w ith Another MV 12% 46% Frontal Impact with Another MV, Fatalities: 805 - Truck Occupants 3,766 - Other Vehicle Occupants 424 - Non-occupants 41
Heavy Truck ESC/RSC Rulemaking expected in late 08 NHTSA is currently researching benefits of Yaw stability systems Roll stability systems Yaw + roll stability systems 42
Heavy Truck Tires Upgrade to FMVSS 119 in 08 Upgrade endurance test Add new high speed test Agency initiated truck tire testing in 2003 in support of this upgrade 43
Heavy Truck Tractor Stopping Distance Upgrade to FMVSS 121 in 08 Substantial reductions in stopping distance are achievable with current technology Estimate 20 to 30 percent reduction in stopping distance 44
Motorcycle Riders Killed and Rate In 2006, per registered vehicle, the fatality rate for motorcycle riders was 5.5 times higher than the fatality rate for passenger vehicle occupants Persons Killed 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Persons Killed Fatalities/100K Registered 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Fatalities/100K Registered 0 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 0 Source: NCSA 45
Motorcycle Rider Fatalities by Age Group and Year 100% 80% 60% 40% 50+ 40-49 30-39 20-29 <20 20% 0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: 2004 Annual Assessment 46
DOT Motorcycle Action Plan New national standards for entry-level rider training Curb counterfeit helmet labeling Motorcycle-specific road improvements Provide training to law enforcement officers on their role in reducing motorcycle crashes PSA featuring Secretary Peters discussing safe riding techniques 47
Thank you! 48