a d its i pact on the Real Estate Industry Rutt Bridges
How Real are Driverless Cars? Seven years of Google research and testing 1.7 million miles with 11 fender-benders and no injuries From open highways to congested suburbs and cities Many other companies, from Apple to Mercedes, are developing driverless cars Google s goal is o er ial a aila ility y 2020
The New Google Car Prototype
Google s Strategy: Sell Mo ility, Not Metal Mobility can be delivered for 39 /mile solo, 19 /mile per passenger with 2 people ridesharing A d that s at a 48.5% pre-tax profit (29 /14 at 25%) Dispatch software manages ridesharing arrangements All passengers must be registered (photo & voiceprint)
Mo ility s Value Propositio Safe, efficient transportation that saves you thousands/year Low-stress door-to-door service while you work, read, relax Less congestion, less pollution, faster commutes, with no parking or car ownership hassles Arrive at work or at home stress-free
How Driverless Cars Navigate in Traffic
Will Driverless Cars find a Market? History insists that when a technology has obvious utility and is economically compelling, it will be used.
Car Ownership versus Mobility Service
Are Driverless Cars Safe? We lost 426,129 to combat in all 20 th Century wars We lost 531,886 to auto crashes in the first 14 years of this century 93% of accidents are due to distraction, drowsiness, drunkenness, or driver error Dri erless ars do t suffer fro those pro le s
Mo ility s Market Seg e ts Early Adopters: Millennials, seniors, disabled, low income, alcohol-impaired Early Majority: Commuters, kids, businesses (fleets, employees, environmental sustainability) Late Majority: The skeptics Never: People who truly love their cars
Winners and Losers The Winners: The public (savings, free time and safety), government (road expansions), environment (cleaner air, greener downtowns), downtown developers, seniors, disa led, The Losers: The auto industry, oil industry, insurers, taxi drivers, car rental, auto repair, personal injury attorneys, parki g lot o ers, e erge y edi al ser i es,
The Impact on Mass Transit In Denver, RTD riders pay about 23% of the cost, taxes and grants pay 77% Can a $2.60 local bus fare compete with 19 /mile mobility? - door-to-door, 24/7 on demand service, zero emissions - pay by the mile, no big empty buses crowding the roads Could Light Rail become our $6 billion stranded asset?
How Would Free Rail Impact Economic Growth?
Supercharge Light Rail: Double Ridership Exit most bus service routes, saving $288M/year in subsidies Eliminate Light Rail fares on all 158 miles of track ($140M/year) Increase railcars by 50% to accommodate doubling of rush-hour riders - 303 Siemens S200 vehicles @ $3.7M, 20 years @ 5% interest = $89M/year) Added cost of servicing additional passengers and railcars ($44M/year) Total cost to provide free rides to 268,000 commuters: $273M
Public-Private Partnership to Feed Light Rail GM s Che y EN-V (electric, 25 mph) Two person urban mobility vehicle Not driverless, but could be in the future Currently being deployed for field trials in Shanghai
Public-Private Partnership to Feed Light Rail Feed riders within a 5 mile radius into stations Close coordination between RTD and mobility providers Average fare per person: 3 miles at 14 /mile = 42 Use Free MallRide in Denver, urban vehicles elsewhere Double ridership, maximize return on sunk cost of rails
How Would Free Rail Impact Economic Growth?
Real Estate Consequences of Free Light Rail FreeRail would attract more corporate headquarters Far larger development radius around rail stations Easy free access means residents range further away for evenings out Strip malls are OK, but a vibrant downtown is better Drinking and driving is less of an issue
Needed Infrastructure for Mobility Services One or two central maintenance and repair facilities Commercial and residential pickup / drop off lanes Redevelopment of Light Rail stations: efficient pickup / drop off lanes Approximately one Rapid Charging Facility for every 1,200 vehicles
Driverless Car Rapid Charging Facility
Mo ility s I pa t o Real Estate Reduction of commercial/residential parking ratios Redevelopment of commercial and residential for pickup and drop off lanes Downtown parking lots available for redevelopment Some urban parking lanes becoming sidewalk cafés Less highway expansion, but more money for repairs
Mo ility s I pa t o Real Estate Residential parking garages: storage units? Home garages: nursery, spare bedroom, home office Mall parking lots become retail and restaurant development opportunities Is there a solution for I-70 congestion? Use of feeder vehicles, driverless 10 passenger buses, and platooning
What is Platooning?