The Car manufacturer s challenge in a fast paced world of More Electric, Connected and Automated Vehicles Tony Harper Industrial Strategy Challenge Director Faraday Battery Challenge UK Research & Innovation. AESIN Conference 2018
OEM Challenges What does this really mean? Autonomous drive capability (SAE-defined levels 1-5) Connectivity (V2X) Electrification Shared mobility services (MaaS). The world is talking about the disruptive effect of the shift to ACES but what does it really mean to an OEM? The following are some observations from that perspective and a briefing on how the Industrial Strategy, Automotive Council & AESIN initiatives fit.
OEM Challenges The rate of market and technological change. Electric Vehicles, High EV range PHEVS are highly physically (and electronically) disruptive to existing global high-volume vehicle architectures and platforms. These architectures are subject to a renewal cadence anyway but electrification is forcing many OEMs to go earlier than previously planned. The costs of renewal (design, development, tooling, global facility investment, supplier costs) are in the region of 1.5Bn +. A new architecture will need to last at least 10 years in market to ensure a return on that investment. Probably more in reality as margins are squeezed by cost of components.
OEM Challenges The rate of market and technological change. So, if you are in a big OEM chewing the end of your pencil looking at a blank sheet of paper starting to lay out a new architecture, it will take 3.5 years to develop and validate plus last for at least 10 years so will need to be competitive in 2033 and handle the technical transitions up to that point. Or is this old thinking leading to an impossible conclusion?
OEM Challenges The rate of market and technological change. Can a rise of nearly 40m EVs in 10 years happen Without existing OEMs Migrating their global Vehicle architectures And industrial Footprint? Of course there will be disruptors and the Chinese will drive a lot of the volume but this WON T happen without the big global OEMs.
OEM Challenges The rate of market and technological change. Can a OEM start renewing a Global vehicle architecture Today and invest 1.5Bn + Without EV/PHEV? A huge shift to Electrification will occur within the lifecycle of any new vehicle architecture designed now.
OEM Challenges The rate of market and technological change. Significant Battery cost reductions occurring within Product Development timescales! Let alone product life.
OEM Challenges The rate of market and technological change. Mechanical Electronics & Software Physical Prototypes still required for a large number of verification tests. Software & Electronics not fit for purpose. Poor uptime & unreliable verification. We need to drastically reduce the dependency on physical prototypes or decouple electronics & software development from product development timelines or both.
OEM Challenges The rate of market and technological change. Sensing/Actuation, Processing, Networks and Software: Functions becoming decoupled from hardware, processors more centralised, sensors used for multiple functions, software hardware agnostic (inc. Offboard!).
OEM Challenges The rate of market and technological change. Specify functional performance Manage supplier Pass power requirements to EDS Pass comms requirements to Network team. Liaise with diagnostics Order prototypes. Oh Dear! The skills and role profile required in OEMs in Electrical and Electronics Engineering are COMPLETELY DIFFERENT as we move into an ACES world.
OEM Challenges The rate of market and technological change. Autonomy not separable from the other nervous system functions of the Vehicle. Strategic Partnerships based on mutual competency strengths may well be formed. Autonomous Module??? Real opportunity for Non-Auto software developers with great Automotive Grade IP in object detection/localisation/path planning/decision making. Electrified Powertrains unlikely to be outsourced to a Provider. Key components will be brought in house over time. Hardware & Software cannot be brushed over in the same breath. Hardware will be specified & sourced by OEM according to it s task in the architecture & may need to be upgradable. Real Opportunity for non Auto software developers & partners. Real opportunity for supply chain disruption with new entrants supplying advanced sensors, processors and actuators The future: It s not quite what They would have you believe. But the opportunities for disruption, new supply chains, new entrants, rapid innovation are definitely there.
OEM Challenges What does this really mean? Autonomous drive capability (SAE-defined levels 1-5) Connectivity (V2X) Electrification Shared mobility services (MaaS). So there is : - A rapidly growing market for batteries & rapid technological change. - A rapidly growing market Electric Machines and Power Electronics & rapid technological change. - Huge disruption & innovation opportunities in Electronics, networks and software. - Significant process and skills challenge associated with the above. - An urgent need to transform the reliance on prototypes.
A rapidly growing market for batteries & rapid technological change.
Faraday Battery Challenge
Huge disruption & innovation opportunities in Electronics, networks and software. - X - Y Backend Vehicle Software Vehicle Electronics & Networks Architecture Sensing/Processing/Actuation Hardware VESA V 1.0 VESA V 2.0 VESA V 3.0 Collaborative National Innovation & Skills Platform R & D In Life Hardware Upgrades Decouple Electronics, Networks and Software development from Product Development cycles and boost with a collaborative Research programme to de-risk new technology and develop capability.
Huge disruption & innovation opportunities in Electronics, networks and software. AESIN 12 Challenges 1/ Sensing -The configuration of appropriate sensors (e.g. camera, radar, lidar, ultrasound) that can effectively create a picture of the environment of the vehicle 2/ Machine Control (AI) -The use of AI in order to decide and implement the movement of the car 3/ Connectivity -The transmission and reception of data (technical/commercial) between vehicle and roadside transceivers or cloud source 4/ Validation and Verification -The testing, including virtual testing and simulation, of vehicle or vehicle systems to adequately account for all potential use cases 5/ Safety and Standards -The definition of standards and safety methodologies in order to ensure integrity of vehicle design 6/ Security -The provision of digital resilience with respect to the integrity of all data within a vehicle system 7/ Legislation -The provision of regulation that allows safe deployment of autonomous vehicles
Huge disruption & innovation opportunities in Electronics, networks and software. AESIN 12 Challenges 8/ Infrastructure -Ex-vehicle electronics (roadside or central-based) which communicates with the vehicle. 9/ New Business Models -New services will result by taking advantage of CAV data 10/ System Architecture -A CAV system represents a system-of-systems with various sub-systems interacting at various levels. When considering the mass of vehicles moving around traffic systems a CAV is also a part of a system-of-systems. Therefore the use of System Architecture can be useful to create better understanding between partners co-operating within such new complex scenarios. 11/ Human-Machine-Interface As the focus on the needs of a CAV occupant increases in importance, then ergonomic HMI technology will become more relevant and sophisticated, together with health/well-being monitoring technologies. 12/ Complex Synchronous Multi-Partner Software partnerships For any given system, the software implementation is the result of software elements from many sources (i.e. many different supplier companies). A new Design and Test methodology needs to encompass this on a synchronised basis, including meeting appropriate safety specifications, and including software updates that could take place post-product release.
A rapidly growing market Electric Machines and Power Electronics & rapid technological change Stephenson Challenge: Driving the electrification revolution Power Electronics, Machines and Drives Day 1 12 th September 15:45 17:00 Main Plenary Hall Power Electronics, Motors & Drives (PEMD) are essential to next generation technologies: All UK cars to have electric drive capability in line with 2040 legislation. New aircraft to include electric / hybridised to meet next phase emissions and noise legislation by 2040 Renewables (Wind, Wave, Tidal) to form and increasing percentage of energy generation (80% CO 2 reduction by 2050) High speed, reduced emissions rail network growth to reduce pressure on roads and decrease journey times The Stephenson Challenge will ensure that our technology, industry and skills are in place to lead the world and create high value jobs, export and sustainability Delivering the transformation in Power Electronics Motors and Drives (PEMD) to deliver a full scale supply chain for the transport, industrial and energy sectors by 2025.
Significant process and skills challenge Transformational Skills Data source: Engineering UK (https://www.engineeringuk.com/media/1576/7444_enguk18_synopsis_standalone_aw.pdf) Our Cross sector strategic priorities need transformational skills. New Engineering & workplace re-skilling is essential.
An urgent need to transform the reliance on prototypes. The Brunel Challenge : World leading complex product Engineering The challenge of developing future products is rising exponentially, pushing costs to unviable levels. Digital Engineering Day 1 12 th September 10:45 12:00 Seminar Dome Delivering validated transformational designs while meeting regulatory requirements Integrating more technology to deliver ground-breaking products against a backdrop of radically altering commercial models Delivering disruptive products right first time at an affordable cost while taking technology beyond today s experience Overcoming these challenges will centre on engineering Integration of enterprises and co-creation to rapidly optimise Full simulated lifecycle analysis to eliminate expensive testing Transforming productivity through digital tools & techniques Tomorrow s products cannot be delivered with today s engineering capabilities. Engineering must transform to reduce time and cost, enable creativity and handle increased complexity. Right 1 st time Every time
Connected & Autonomous Vehicles - Capability Expansion Areas of focus: 1. Further investment in advanced CAV Testing & Development: Virtual testing environment correlated to controlled / public environments Upgrade of facilities in the controlled and public testing environment 2. Connected Environments: Developing an investible business model for large scale deployment of connected infrastructure as an enabler for CAV 3. Data & Cyber Security: Data platform for CAV data which is accessible, reliable and consolidated CAV cyber security capabilities and solutions 4. New services In-Market Experimentation for CAV use case and breakthrough service testing - CAV Policy Development - CAV Technology and Market Development Day 2 13 th September - 09:15 10:30-10:45 11:50 Main Plenary Hall 3-5yrs program of expansion, 255m largely matched by industry. Space for investment in a CAV Incubator with a comprehensive Cross functional business case
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