RETURN ON INVESTMENT LIQUIFIED NATURAL GAS PIVOTAL LNG TRUCK MARKET LNG TO DIESEL COMPARISON
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 RETAIL BREAK EVEN AND IRR EXAMPLE FOR A TYPICAL TRUCK FLEET Cells in yellow are for your input, other values are calculated Input Variables Acquisition Cost - Diesel Tractor $ 120,000 Current Diesel Cost ($ per gallon) $ 3.00 Estimated Annual Diesel Cost Increase % 3% Average Fuel Mileage (MPG) Diesel 6.5 Current Diesel Exhaust Fluid Cost ($ per gallon) $ 2.00 Estimated Diesel Exhaust Fluid Consumption % 2% Estimated Annual Diesel Exhaust Fluid Cost Increase % 2% Acquisition Cost - LNG Tractor $ 170,000 LNG Tractor Premium (calculated or insert a value) $ 50,000 Current LNG Cost ($ per DGE) $ 2.00 Estimated Annual LNG Cost Increase % 0% Average Fuel Mileage (MPG) LNG 5.9 Annual Average Tractor Mileage 100,000 Number of Tractors 25 Weeks of operation per year 50 Days of operation per week 5 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $- Annual Diesel Cost Annual LNG Cost Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Annual Costs and Savings Per Truck 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Annual Diesel Cost $ 46,154 $ 47,538 $ 48,965 $ 50,434 $ 51,947 $ 53,505 $ 55,110 $ 56,763 $ 58,466 $ 60,220 Annual Diesel Exhaust Fluid Cost $ 615 $ 628 $ 640 $ 653 $ 666 $ 679 $ 693 $ 707 $ 721 $ 735 Total Cost for Diesel plus Diesel Exhaust Fluid $ 46,769 $ 48,166 $ 49,605 $ 51,087 $ 52,613 $ 54,184 $ 55,803 $ 57,470 $ 59,187 $ 60,956 Annual LNG Cost $ 33,898 $ 33,898 $ 33,898 $ 33,898 $ 33,898 $ 33,898 $ 33,898 $ 33,898 $ 33,898 $ 33,898 Annual Fuel Savings $ 12,871 $ 14,268 $ 15,707 $ 17,188 $ 18,714 $ 20,286 $ 21,905 $ 23,572 $ 25,289 $ 27,057 Accumulated Fuel Savings $ 12,871 $ 27,139 $ 42,845 $ 60,034 $ 78,748 $ 99,034 $ 120,939 $ 144,511 $ 169,800 $ 196,857 Net Accumulated Fuel Savings (- Tractor Premium) $ (50,000) $ (37,129) $ (22,861) $ (7,155) $ 10,034 $ 28,748 $ 49,034 $ 70,939 $ 94,511 $ 119,800 $ 146,857 Break Even - Years 3.4 IRR (5 year ) 16% IRR (10 year ) 31% Annual Monthly Weekly Consumption Calculations Per Truck For Fleet Per Truck For Fleet Per Truck For Fleet Per Truck For Fleet Diesel Consumption in Gallons 15,385 384,615 1,282 32,051 308 7,692 62 1,538 Diesel Exhaust Fluid Consumption in Gallons 308 7,692 26 641 6 154 1 31 LNG Consumption in DGE 16,949 423,729 1,412 35,311 339 8,475 68 1,695 LNG Consumption in LNG Gallons 29,153 728,814 2,429 60,734 583 14,576 117 2,915 Daily
DIESEL TO LNG FUEL PRICE SPREAD AND COMPONENTS
CLEAN CITIES RETAIL LNG PRICE SURVEY INFORMATION PRIOR TO 2014 REFLECTS PRIVATE FLEET, NOT RETAIL
CLEAN CITIES SURVEY - RETAIL ON-HIGHWAY CNG PRICES
RETAIL DIESEL PRICE COMPONENTS ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION (EIA)
Example Comparison of Retail Diesel and LNG EIA Diesel Price Breakdown per gallon Typical LNG Price Breakdown per DGE Diesel Retail Price/Gallon $3.00 LNG Retail per DGE $2.00 Crude Oil 50% $1.50 Gas to the plant 23% $ 0.45 Refining 17% $0.51 Liquefaction 34% $ 0.67 Distribution and Marketing 16% $0.48 Distribution and Station Cost 19% $ 0.37 Taxes 17% $0.51 Taxes 26% $ 0.51 Total $3.00 Total $ 2.00 Diesel Retail LNG Retail Gas to the plant Liquefaction Crude Oil Refining Distribution and Marketing Taxes Distribution and Station Cost Taxes
BASIC LNG STATION COST PER DGE EXAMPLE Assumes one fueling station for 25 trucks located on an existing customer site Assumes constant monthly throughput over the term Very basic station with minimal construction and site improvements Ignores land cost, Opex, taxes, insurance and residual value of equipment DGE = Diesel Gallon Equivalent (1.7 LNG gallons) Basic LNG station cost per DGE example Station Cost Assumptions Station Flow Assumptions & Calculations Station Capex Assumptions Annual miles traveled per truck 90,000 Station Mechanical Equipment (tank, dispensers, etc.) $ 700,000 Average fuel mileage (MPG) 6.00 Station mechanical equipment useful life (years) 10 Annual DGE fuel consumption per Truck 15,000 Station mechanical equipment residual value $ $ - Number of Trucks 25 Land Acquisition Cost $ - Annual DGE fuel consumption for the fleet 375,000 Land Value after year 10 $ - LNG fuel cost contribution per DGE $ 0.25 Site Improvement and construction cost $ 100,000 Annual contribution to station cost for the fleet $ 93,750 Total Capex Assumption $ 800,000 Monthly contribution to station cost for the fleet $ 7,813 Station Opex Assumptions Total station flow in DGE over 10 years 3,750,000 Station Opex (utilities, maintenance and repairs) $ - Sum of contribution to station cost over 10 years $ 937,500 Taxes $ - Insurance $ - Fuel station DGE per month 31,250 Total Opex Assumption $ - Fuel station LNG gallons per month 53,125 Fuel station LNG gallons per year 637,500 Fuel Cost Contribution Assumption Fuel cost contribution per DGE assumption $ 0.25 Present Value (PV) calculation based on monthly contribution to station cost Annual Rate 3% Number of payments 120 Payment Amount $ 7,812.50 10 year Fuel Cost Contributions Present Value (PV) $809,076.20
LNG STATION CONSIDERATIONS Factors that can decrease fuel cost contribution per DGE Lower Capex Potential infrastructure grants and tax incentives Higher throughput through growth of primary fleet Higher throughput through shared access with other fleets Possible scalability savings if station is expanded Treatment of residual value of equipment (actual useful life is far greater than 10 years) Some critical cost variables to be considered for any LNG station Acquisition cost of land (if any) Value of land after 10 years Truck fueling patterns (i.e. all 25 in the morning or dispersed over the 24 hour period) Engineering costs Construction costs Operating expenses Project cost allocation (to fleet or facility) Depreciation Station equipment residual value Steady flow from day 1 or ramp up over X time period Potential for additional trucks/increased station flow Station scalability/ same site and tank for additional trucks/just add dispenser Other income streams (shared or public access) Taxes
TAXES
TAX PENALTIES ON LNG NEW TRUCKS PAY A 12% FEDERAL EXCISE TAX DIESEL TRACTOR - $100,000 X 12% = $12,000 LNG TRACTOR - $150,000 X 12% = $18,000 THAT S A $6,000 PER TRACTOR FEDERAL TAX PENALTY FOR DOING THE RIGHT THING! X100 TRUCKS IN A TYPICAL DEPLOYMENT $600,000 BROWN WATER LNG IS STILL TAXED ON AN LNG GALLON BASIS NOT DGE!
FEDERAL FUEL EXCISE TAX (FET) IRS FORM 720
State Fuel Tax From IFTA tables July 2018 Does not include state surcharges State / Province Gasoline Special Diesel Gasohol Propane LNG CNG Ethanol Methanol E-85 M-85 A55 Biodiesel Electricity Hydrogen 1 ALABAMA (AL) U.S. 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 2 ARIZONA (AZ) #8 U.S. 0.18 0.26 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.26 3 ARKANSAS (AR) U.S. 0.215 0.225 0.215 0.165 0.05 0.05 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.225 4 CALIFORNIA (CA) #1 U.S. 0.57 0.06 0.1017 0.0887 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.57 0.57 5 COLORADO (CO) U.S. 0.22 0.205 0.22 0.11 0.1 0.15 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.205 6 CONNECTICUT (CT) #16 U.S. 0.25 0.417 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.417 7 DELAWARE (DE) U.S. 0.23 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 8 FLORIDA (FL) #19 U.S. 0.345 0.3437 0.345 0.3437 9 GEORGIA (GA) U.S. 0.268 0.3 0.268 0.268 0.268 0.268 0.268 0.268 0.268 0.268 0.268 0.3 10 IDAHO (ID) #7 U.S. 0.32 0.232 0.349 0.32 0.32 0.32 11 ILLINOIS (IL) #27 U.S. 0.324 0.349 0.324 0.358 0.35 0.294 0.324 0.324 0.324 0.324 0.324 0.349 12 INDIANA (IN) U.S. 0.26 0.47 0.26 0.47 0.47 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.47 13 IOWA (IA) #26 U.S. 0.305 0.325 0.29 0.3 0.325 0.31 0.29 0.305 0.29 0.305 0.305 0.295 14 KANSAS (KS) U.S. 0.24 0.26 0.24 0.23 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.17 0.24 0.26 0.26 15 KENTUCKY (KY) U.S. 0.246 0.216 0.246 0.246 0.216 0.216 0.246 0.246 0.246 0.246 0.216 0.216 16 LOUISIANA (LA) #22 U.S. 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.146 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 17 MAINE (ME) #6 U.S. 0.312 0.219 0.178 0.3073 0.198 0.147 0.312 18 MARYLAND (MD) #24 U.S. 0.338 0.3455 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.3455 0.3455 19 MASSACHUSETTS (MA) U.S. 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.186 0.186 0.186 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 20 MICHIGAN (MI) U.S. 0.404 0.423 0.404 0.423 0.423 0.404 0.404 0.404 0.404 0.404 0.423 0.423 0.423 21 MINNESOTA (MN) #17 U.S. 0.285 0.285 0.285 0.2135 0.171 0.285 0.285 0.285 0.2025 0.285 0.285 22 MISSISSIPPI (MS) #2 U.S. 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.228 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 23 MISSOURI (MO) #3 U.S. 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.05 0.05 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 24 MONTANA (MT) #10 U.S. 0.2925 0.0518 0.07 25 NEBRASKA (NE) U.S. 0.284 0.284 0.284 0.284 0.284 0.284 0.284 0.284 0.284 0.284 0.284 0.284 26 NEVADA (NV) U.S. 0.23 0.27 0.23 0.22 0.27 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.19 0.27 27 NEW HAMPSHIRE (NH) U.S. 0.222 0.222 0.222 0.222 0.222 28 NEW JERSEY (NJ) U.S. 0.371 0.442 0.371 0.3225 0.371 0.371 0.371 0.371 0.371 0.442 29 NEW MEXICO (NM) U.S. 0.21 30 NEW YORK (NY) #12 U.S. 0.399 0.3915 0.399 0.23 0.399 0.399 0.399 0.399 31 NORTH CAROLINA (NC) #25 U.S. 0.351 0.351 0.351 0.351 0.351 0.351 0.351 0.351 0.351 0.351 0.351 0.351 32 NORTH DAKOTA (ND) U.S. 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 33 OHIO (OH) U.S. 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 34 OKLAHOMA (OK) U.S. 0.16 0.13 0.16 0.16 0.05 0.05 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.13 35 OREGON (OR) U.S. 36 PENNSYLVANIA (PA) #4 U.S. 0.576 0.741 0.576 0.425 0.648 0.576 0.384 0.289 0.413 0.332 0.741 0.741 0.0172 0.576 37 RHODE ISLAND (RI) U.S. 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 38 SOUTH CAROLINA (SC) #23 U.S. 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 39 SOUTH DAKOTA (SD) U.S. 0.28 0.28 40 TENNESSEE (TN) #9 U.S. 0.24 0.21 0.24 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.21 41 TEXAS (TX) #13 U.S. 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 42 UTAH (UT) #21 U.S. 0.294 0.294 0.294 0.145 0.145 0.294 0.294 0.294 0.294 0.294 0.294 0.145 43 VERMONT (VT) U.S. 0.31 44 VIRGINIA (VA) #20 U.S. 0.162 0.202 0.162 0.162 0.183 0.162 0.162 0.162 0.162 0.162 0.162 0.202 45 WASHINGTON (WA) #11 U.S. 0.494 0.494 0.494 0.494 0.494 0.494 0.494 0.494 0.494 46 WEST VIRGINIA (WV) U.S. 0.357 0.357 0.357 0.2 0.152 0.237 0.357 0.357 0.357 0.357 0.357 0.357 47 WISCONSIN (WI) U.S. 0.329 0.329 0.329 0.226 0.197 0.247 0.329 0.329 0.329 0.329 0.329 0.329 48 WYOMING (WY) U.S. 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 Average $ 0.29 $ 0.18 0.175
STATE FUEL TAX SOUTHEASTERN STATES State / Province Gasoline Special Diesel Gasohol Propane LNG CNG Ethanol Methanol E-85 M-85 A55 Biodiesel Electricity Hydrogen 1 ALABAMA (AL) U.S. 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 2 FLORIDA (FL) #19 U.S. 0.345 0.3437 0.345 0.3437 3 GEORGIA (GA) U.S. 0.268 0.3 0.268 0.268 0.268 0.268 0.268 0.268 0.268 0.268 0.268 0.3 4 LOUISIANA (LA) #22 U.S. 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.146 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 5 MISSISSIPPI (MS) #2 U.S. 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.228 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 6 NORTH CAROLINA (NC) #25 U.S. 0.351 0.351 0.351 0.351 0.351 0.351 0.351 0.351 0.351 0.351 0.351 0.351 7 SOUTH CAROLINA (SC) #23 U.S. 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 8 TENNESSEE (TN) #9 U.S. 0.24 0.21 0.24 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.21 Average $ 0.24 $ 0.17 0.1734
SUMMARY
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 RETAIL BREAK EVEN AND IRR EXAMPLE FOR A TYPICAL TRUCK FLEET Cells in yellow are for your input, other values are calculated Input Variables Acquisition Cost - Diesel Tractor $ 120,000 Current Diesel Cost ($ per gallon) $ 3.00 Estimated Annual Diesel Cost Increase % 3% Average Fuel Mileage (MPG) Diesel 6.5 Current Diesel Exhaust Fluid Cost ($ per gallon) $ 2.00 Estimated Diesel Exhaust Fluid Consumption % 2% Estimated Annual Diesel Exhaust Fluid Cost Increase % 2% Acquisition Cost - LNG Tractor $ 170,000 LNG Tractor Premium (calculated or insert a value) $ 50,000 Current LNG Cost ($ per DGE) $ 2.00 Estimated Annual LNG Cost Increase % 0% Average Fuel Mileage (MPG) LNG 5.9 Annual Average Tractor Mileage 100,000 Number of Tractors 25 Weeks of operation per year 50 Days of operation per week 5 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $- Annual Diesel Cost Annual LNG Cost Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Annual Costs and Savings Per Truck 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Annual Diesel Cost $ 46,154 $ 47,538 $ 48,965 $ 50,434 $ 51,947 $ 53,505 $ 55,110 $ 56,763 $ 58,466 $ 60,220 Annual Diesel Exhaust Fluid Cost $ 615 $ 628 $ 640 $ 653 $ 666 $ 679 $ 693 $ 707 $ 721 $ 735 Total Cost for Diesel plus Diesel Exhaust Fluid $ 46,769 $ 48,166 $ 49,605 $ 51,087 $ 52,613 $ 54,184 $ 55,803 $ 57,470 $ 59,187 $ 60,956 Annual LNG Cost $ 33,898 $ 33,898 $ 33,898 $ 33,898 $ 33,898 $ 33,898 $ 33,898 $ 33,898 $ 33,898 $ 33,898 Annual Fuel Savings $ 12,871 $ 14,268 $ 15,707 $ 17,188 $ 18,714 $ 20,286 $ 21,905 $ 23,572 $ 25,289 $ 27,057 Accumulated Fuel Savings $ 12,871 $ 27,139 $ 42,845 $ 60,034 $ 78,748 $ 99,034 $ 120,939 $ 144,511 $ 169,800 $ 196,857 Net Accumulated Fuel Savings (- Tractor Premium) $ (50,000) $ (37,129) $ (22,861) $ (7,155) $ 10,034 $ 28,748 $ 49,034 $ 70,939 $ 94,511 $ 119,800 $ 146,857 Break Even - Years 3.4 IRR (5 year ) 16% IRR (10 year ) 31% Annual Monthly Weekly Consumption Calculations Per Truck For Fleet Per Truck For Fleet Per Truck For Fleet Per Truck For Fleet Diesel Consumption in Gallons 15,385 384,615 1,282 32,051 308 7,692 62 1,538 Diesel Exhaust Fluid Consumption in Gallons 308 7,692 26 641 6 154 1 31 LNG Consumption in DGE 16,949 423,729 1,412 35,311 339 8,475 68 1,695 LNG Consumption in LNG Gallons 29,153 728,814 2,429 60,734 583 14,576 117 2,915 Daily
KEY QUESTIONS FOR THE FUTURE WHAT WILL THE PRICE SPREAD BETWEEN DIESEL AND LNG BE OVER THE NEXT TEN YEARS? WILL MARINE USE OF ULTRA LOW SULPHUR DIESEL CHANGE THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE? WILL THE PRICE SPREAD BETWEEN DIESEL AND LNG TRUCKS AND FUELING STATIONS CONTINUE TO DECLINE? WILL TAX PENALTIES ON LNG TRUCKS AND EQUIPMENT BE REMOVED? WILL SOME FORM OF THE NAT GAS ACT BE REINSTATED TO INCENTIVIZE THE USE OF LNG?
PIVOTAL LNG DAVID JASKOLSKI MANAGER, FUELS 404-783-3550 DJASKOLS@PIVOTALLNG.COM