Slower Sales Is the New Norm Industry analysts were certainly accurate in their characterization of a slower sales environment during the second half of 2018 the latest data for September light-vehicle sales continues the trend, with a total decrease of 5.5%. The good news is the 5.5% decrease is better than the predicted -7.0%, and September was the fourth-best September ever, as measured by volume. In addition, September s SAAR (seasonally adjusted, annualized rate) of 17.54 million, followed a July and August with less than a 17-million SAAR each month. For the first 9 months of 2018, US lightvehicle sales are still just on the plus side, at +0.5%, and analysts are still predicting total sales for the year to exceed 17 million for the fourth consecutive year. The disparity between passenger cars and light-trucks continued, with car sales decreasing 20%, but light-truck sales increasing 2.2%. Despite aggressive incentives, only Fiat Chrysler (FCA), among the major automakers, enjoyed increased sales during September, or +14.7%, compared to September 2017. Ford s sales were 11.3% less than September 2017; General Motors, -15.8%; Honda, -7.0%; Nissan, -12.2%; Toyota, -10.4%; and Volkswagen, -2.6%. Hyundai-Kia had the best red number, with just a 0.6% decrease. Good and Bad Trade News for the Auto Industry As this month s Automotive Update Report was being written, the Trump administration announced a successor agreement to the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada. To be signed during late November, the new trade pact will be called the US- Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, which involves more than $1 trillion in annual trading between the three countries. For the auto industry, all vehicles manufactured in the US and Mexico must have 75% of their content originating in those countries and auto workers with an average hourly pay of $16 must manufacturer 40% of vehicles content. In addition, auto tariffs won t be applied to exports from Canada and Mexico unless they are more than 2.6 million units annually. The bad trade news? Ford reported during late September that steel and aluminum tariffs could reduce the company s profits by $1 billion by the end of 2019. Based on Ford s contract with the United Auto Workers (UAW) union, such a loss of profit could result in each union worker at Ford receiving $1,000 less in bonus money. Striking even closer to home for the advertising industry is the potential for less ad dollars from auto manufacturers and dealers if the Trump administration s goal of a tariff on imported cars and trucks takes effect. 1
MARKETING FORWARD Is Nielsen Auto Cloud a Game Changer? It s clear both auto manufacturers and local dealerships are in the midst of a marketing and advertising evolution. Old methods and messages do not resonate with consumers as they once did. Helping to push that evolution forward is the Nielsen Auto Cloud and J.D. Power. Together, they are providing marketers with more intelligent data about consumers vehicle interests and the detailed information they are seeking on which to base their purchase decision. According to a September 2018 article on the MediaVillage Website, Nielsen Auto Cloud provides the industry with three new tools. 1. It exponentially expands the amount of targeting data auto makers have at their fingertips with more than 250 car attributes they can use to ensure pinpoint targeting in real-time. 2. For the first time, marketers are able to leverage intelligence that is updated daily. 3. The introduction of artificial intelligence allows marketers to act instantly and automatically based on real-time consumer behavior. A game changer? Maybe. Only broad usage and ROI results will determine its efficacy and value. Is the Love Affair with Cars Ending? Although many surveys still find American consumers remain wary of the autonomous-car concept (but, of course, they were also initially wary of trains, cars and airplanes), a new survey from Cox Automotive suggests more Americans don t view private vehicle ownership as an absolute necessity. According to the survey, half of the 1,250 consumers who participated were concerned with the increasing cost of owning or leasing a vehicle. Plus, 57% of those who live in urban areas said other local transportation options were reducing their need to own a vehicle. Ride-hailing services, such as Uber and Lyft, have been responsible for many people viewing transportation as a service. Although these services have been quite popular in urban areas, where their use has increased 18% since 2015, they increased 21% in suburban communities. This change of mindset among consumers, especially younger adults, hasn t been lost on the major auto manufacturers, as many are now introducing vehicle subscription programs. According to early research, 10% of the young men and newvehicle buyers in the survey said they are attracted to the subscription model. An alarming conclusion of Cox Automotive s analysis of the survey data is that consumer vehicle sales could contract by 40%. 2
ROAD SIGNS Looking for Future Car Sales The number one billion is less difficult to comprehend today as some companies (Amazon, Apple, etc.) are approaching a valuation of $1 trillion. A billion is still a huge number, however; and the latest prediction about future global auto sales is that many will be added to the world s roadways by 2030, which is twice as many as today. Obviously, the major (and minor) automakers and their vast chains of suppliers are salivating at the opportunity of selling 1 billion more vehicles. When the cost of a drive train in an electric vehicle (EV) becomes less than the traditional internal-combustion (IC) drive train during the second half of the next decade, the EV market is expected to explode. Many consumers and maybe, more importantly, fleet owners will be choosing EV over IC vehicles, resulting in a large replacement market. Experts are estimating 30 million EVs by 2030, compared to 4 million during 2018; however, the International Energy Agency s forecast is 125 million EVs by 2030. By 2040, the total could be 560 million EVs, which would be one-third of all global vehicles. Autonomous vehicles are the great unknown in this equation, as there are no credible estimates/forecasts of how many may join the global fleet, and when. Plus, autonomous technology could result in alternate transportation systems that could actually reduce the number of private, passenger vehicles on the roads by 2030, and beyond. North American automakers have two challenges to grab their fair share of those 1 billion vehicles. First, 85% of them are expected to be purchased in China and India. Second, Chinese consumers will probably be more attracted to micro-evs, which have a price tag as low as $1,000, and are already popular in China. Hurricanes and the Used-Car Market Hurricanes cause destruction to many businesses and industries, large and small, and Hurricane Florence is repeating the same negative effect as Hurricane Harvey when it hit Houston during 2017. Cox Automotive is estimating 20,000 to 40,000 affected vehicles from Florence, with many of them likely to enter the used car market, either legitimately or surreptitiously. Of course, local new and used car dealers must be very aware and alert. Consumers will want additional scrutiny of any used vehicle they are considering purchasing and dealers don t want unhappy customers who discovered after a purchase they have a hurricanedamaged vehicle. The other outcome is many people, especially in North Carolina, must replace their vehicles, and quickly, which will increase used car prices an estimated 1 percent throughout the eastern US. Experts suggest people who are unexpectedly entering the used car market because theirs were destroyed, should wait at least a month before making a purchase, if possible. 3
MONTHLY AUTOMOBILE SALES CHART NOTE: General Motors has decided to announce light-vehicle sales quarterly instead of monthly. With release of its data October 2nd, Chevrolet, GMC, Buick, Cadillac and GM are included in this month s table. RANK AUTOMAKER SEPTEMBER 2018 % CHANGE FROM SEPTEMBER 2017 2018 YEAR TO DATE % CHANGE FROM 2017 YEAR TO DATE #1 Ford 188,328-17.0% 1,808,326-2.8% #2 Toyota 178,501-10.9% 1,706,410 +5.9% #3 Chevrolet 159,171-20.3% 1,485,027-2.1% #4 Honda 119,157-8.2% 1,092,247-2.1% #5 Nissan 110,283-13.3% 1,019,433-5.8% #6 Jeep 83,764 +14.1% 746,194 +19.9% #7 Subaru 57,044-1.0% 525,375 +5.0% #8 Hyundai 56,940 +3.0% 492,791-0.8% #9 Ram 56,447 +9.2% 416,661-0.5% #10 Kia 51,503-1.8% 452,042-1.3% #11 Dodge 42,101 +40.6% 359,728-1.7% #12 GMC 41,584-12.1% 395,926-2.4% #13 Mercedes-Benz* 30,617-15.6% 254,698-15.1% #14 Volkswagen 30,555-4.9% 266,217 +5.5% #15 Tesla 29,975 +563.6% 119,992 +239.8% #16 BMW 25,908 +1.3% 225,065 +2.2% #17 Lexus 24,597-6.1% 213,616-2.4% #18 Mazda 21,257-17.4% 235,122 +6.7% #19 Audi 19,350 +1.8% 164,834 +3.9% #20 Buick 15,101-9.8% 155,481-2.7% #21 Chrysler 14,683-6.8% 127,156-11.6% #22 Acura 13,511 +4.4% 114,483 +0.3% #23 Infiniti 12,536-1.6% 105,249-7.4% #24 Cadillac 12,409-11.4% 112,398 +8.9% #25 Volvo 8,715 +10.3% 69,981 +23.0% #26 Lincoln 8,168-7.2% 75,280-9.0% #27 Mitsubishi 7,705-8.6% 93,398 +17.9% #28 Land Rover 6,966 +8.7% 65,133 +20.5% #29 Porsche 5,102-7.1% 44,540-1.3% #30 Mini 3,461-7.4% 34,193-1.7% 4
RANK AUTOMAKER SEPTEMBER 2018 % CHANGE FROM SEPTEMBER 2017 2018 YEAR TO DATE % CHANGE FROM 2017 YEAR TO DATE #31 Jaguar 2,040-38.1% 20,947-31.4% #32 Alfa Romeo 1,639 +29.3% 18,160 +147.0% #33 Fiat 1,185-46.3% 12,084-43.1% #34 Maserati 950-15.1% 8,413-15.8% #35 Genesis 419-75.9% 8,909-41.0% #36 Bentley 165 +5.8% 1,477-11.7% #37 Smart 98-59.3% 959-63.6% General Motors 228,265-17.9% 2,148,832-1.7% Toyota Motor Corporation 203,098-10.4% 1,920,026 +4.9% FCA/Chrysler Group 199,819 +13.9% 1,683,086 +5.9% Ford Motor Company 196,496-16.7% 1,883,606-3.0% American Honda Motor Company Nissan Motor Company/ Infiniti /Mitsubishi Hyundai-Kia Automotive Group 132,668-7.0% 1,206,730-1.9% 130,524-12.0% 1,218,080-4.5% 108,862-0.6% 953,742-1.6% Volkswagen Group 55,007-3.1% 475,746 +3.9% Daimler AG 30,715-15.9% 255,657-15.5% BMW Group 29,369 +0.2% 259,258 +1.7% Jaguar/Land Rover 9,006-7.2% 86,080 +1.8% TOTAL 1,440,820-5.5% 13,041,313 +0.5% Source: Automakers and ANDC * Includes Mercedes-Benz vans Includes Audi, Bentley, Porsche and Volkswagen brands, but not Lamborghini Industry total includes Automotive News figures/ estimates for brands, such as Tesla and other low-volume, high-priced manufacturers. Based on Automotive News calculations 2018 Media Group Online, Inc. All rights reserved. Sources: Bloomberg Website: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-01/u-s-canada-agree-to-nafta-replacement-that-will-include-mexico?utm_campaign=pol&utm_ medium=bd&utm_source=applenews, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-01/cars-cows-and-a-crisis-averted-highlights-of-a-new-nafta-deal Automotive News Website: http://www.autonews.com/article/20180927/blog06/180929770/-1-billion-tariff-hit-would-mean-1000-hit-to-ford-workers, http://www.autonews.com/ article/20180825/retail01/180829844/1546, http://www.autonews.com/article/20181002/retail01/181009920/car-light-truck-monthly-sales-data TVNewsCheck Website: https://tvnewscheck.com/article/222951/tariffs-hurt-auto-sales-advertising/ MediaVillage Website: https://www.mediavillage.com/article/nielsen-auto-cloud-a-win-for-automakers-agencies-and-consumers/?utm_campaign=nl-daily&utm_medium=email&utm_ source=nielsen+auto+cloud%3a+a+win+for+automakers%2c+agencies+and+consumers Axios Website: https://www.axios.com/race-electric-driverless-cars-autonomous-vehicles-2a3b217f-eab3-47be-aa53-16f45cbf0e94.html Forbes Website: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimhenry/2018/09/23/cars-trucks-flooded-by-hurricane-florence-may-be-headed-to-a-used-car-lot-near-you/#3dff41a49dd8 CBS News https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-florence-impact-to-push-up-used-car-prices/ Good Car Bad Car Website: http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/10/u-s-auto-sales-brand-rankings-september-2018-ytd/ 5