INNOVATIVE APPROACH IN ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE SAFETY MANAGEMENT AND ROAD SAFETY IMPACT ASSESSMENT www.ptvgroup.com Timo Hoffmann, PTV Group TSTS Road Safety Seminar, Bangkok, 2014-10-17
CRASH PREDICTION Tomorrow at 11:34 a crash will happen here. www.ptvgroup.com Page 2
CRASH PREDICTION In 2014 about 10 million cars will use this road. About three crashes will occur on this segment. www.ptvgroup.com Page 3
ROAD SAFETY IMPACT ASSESSMENT Current status Layouts Safest Layout A B C www.ptvgroup.com Page 4
ROAD SAFETY IMPACT ASSESSMENT Current status New Bus Route Safety Impact Per year e.g. Δ -25 crashes Δ -6 injuries Δ -1 fatality Δ -2 million $ crash costs www.ptvgroup.com Page 5
Road Infrastructure Data Land Use Information Historical Crash Data Crash Prediction Model (CPM) Road Safety Experts Transportation Planning Public Transport Operators Traffic Police City Logistics Traffic Management Multimodal Transportation Model Network-wide Speed Data Environment Office www.ptvgroup.com Page 6
RE SHAPE THINKING ON TRANSPORATION AND ROAD SAFATY Breaking out of the institutional silos of transportation! Michael Replogle (ITDP) www.ptvgroup.com Page 7
IMPROVING ROAD SAFETY WITH NEW APPROACHES A Transportation planning A D B C B Road network with traffic volumes and crash data C Safety analysis D Evaluation of Safety measures www.ptvgroup.com Page 8
ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE SAFETY MANAGEMENT EU Directive 2008/EC/96 Black Spot Management Road Safety Inspection (BSM) (RSI) www.ptvgroup.com Page 9
ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE SAFETY MANAGEMENT Crash Data Black Spot Management Road Safety Inspection (BSM) (RSI) Necessity for and benefits of using software www.ptvgroup.com Page 10
INTEGRATED ROAD SAFETY MANAGEMENT Road administrations need to take action on the operational level. Black Spot Management (BSM) Identify black spots (sites with high crash frequency) based on historical crash data Analyze similarities and contributing factors Find countermeasures www.ptvgroup.com Page 11
www.ptvgroup.com Page 12
www.ptvgroup.com Page 13
INTEGRATED ROAD SAFETY MANAGEMENT Transportation authorities identify need for action on strategic level Network Safety Management (NSM) Road traffic planning based on the macroscopic safety situation Safety assessment considers historical crash data, traffic volumes and road infrastructure data Ranking of road segments in terms of high risk sections and severity Describing safety potential = road segments with high crash saving potential www.ptvgroup.com Page 14
2010-2012 CRASH COUNT ON LINKS www.ptvgroup.com Page 15
2010-2012 CRASH DENSITY ON LINKS www.ptvgroup.com Page 16
2010-2012 CRASH RATES ON LINKS www.ptvgroup.com Page 17
2010-2012 CRASH RATES & DENSITY ON LINKS www.ptvgroup.com Page 18
COMBINATION OF TRANSPORTATION NETWORK/MODEL WITH CRASH DATA Network Crashes Traffic Volumes (from model) www.ptvgroup.com Page 19
ALLOCATION OF CRASHES TO ROAD NETWORK www.ptvgroup.com Page 20
GOAL OF NETWORK SAFETY MANAGEMENT Safety potential Real crash cost Theoreti cal crash cost for best practice design Network Safety Management www.ptvgroup.com Page 21
THE ROAD SAFETY LORENZ CURVE BASIC PRINCIPLE FOR NSM Percentage of avoidable crash costs 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1% 8% 11% 16% 20% 26% 31% 40% 45% 51% 53% 54% 57% 61% 64% 67% 70% 72% 73% 74% 75% 77% 80% 84% 91% Percentage of total network length No safety potential Little safety potential Medium safety potential High safety potential www.ptvgroup.com Page 22
SAFETY POTENTIAL AND AVOIDABLE CRASH COSTS Real Situation Safe Situation Links Links Length Crashes Crash costs ADT Base crash rate Length Crash cost density Base crash cost density Safety potential Aviodable crash costs www.ptvgroup.com Page 23
www.ptvgroup.com Page 24
www.ptvgroup.com Page 25
IMPROVING ROAD SAFETY WITH AN INTEGRATED APPROACH Road Safety Impact Assesment Network Safety Management Black Spot Management Road Safety Inspection New scheme and / or modified infrastructure Road Safety Audit www.ptvgroup.com Page 26
ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE LIFE CYCLE AND THE SAFETY TOOLS IN SWITZERLAND Planning (reconstruction and upgrading) Planning (new construction) Operation Specific single event Project design Implementation Single Crash Location Management Stadt Zürich Dienstabteilung Verkehr Reference: ASTRA (2013a) www.ptvgroup.com Page 27
THE CAUSAL DIAGRAM OF THE RIA METHOD Crash prediction models (CPM) Transportation model / Traffic data Expected cost of crashes per CPM type Expected number of crashes per CPM type Links and nodes per CPM type Average daily traffic per link and node Expected number of crashes Expected costs of crashes Stadt Zürich Dienstabteilung www.ptvgroup.com Verkehr Page 28
SWISS RIA METHOD: ROAD SEGMENTS Road type Other conditions Crash rate Major motorway 2 lanes 0.46 > 2 lanes 0.55 Minor motorway 1 lane 0.48 > 1 lanes 0.57 Tunnel 0.53 Major rural road 0.78 Crashes per million vehicles per kilometer Major urban road physical separation 1.85 no physical separation 3.49 Major urban road with high commercial use Minor urban road physical separation 2.69 no physical separation 5.10 with traffic calming 1.50 without traffic calming 3.00 www.ptvgroup.com Page 29
SWISS RIA METHOD: INTERSECTIONS Road type Control Type Legs Crash rate Rural Urban uncontrolled signalized roundabout uncontrolled signalized roundabout > 3 0.97 3 0.65 > 3 0.41 3 0.27 > 3 0.53 3 0.36 > 3 1.20 3 0.64 > 3 0.25 3 0.71 > 3 0.45 3 0.27 Crashes per million vehicles www.ptvgroup.com Page 30
SWISS RIA METHOD: COST RATES Crash rate Ratio of severe injury crashes 2% Ratio of light injury crashes 12% Cost per severe injury crash 1,012,000 CHF Cost per light injury crash 91,500 CHF Ratio of property damage only crashes 86% Cost per PDO crach 45,000 CHF Crash cost rate www.ptvgroup.com Page 31
SWISS RIA METHOD: CRASH PREDICTION MODEL Road types & volumes Crash rate Crash density & counts Use a traffic model to calculate expected traffic volume Use traffic volume and road types as input parameter for CPM Calculate crash rates based on network attributes Calculate crash densities and counts www.ptvgroup.com Page 32
IS THIS STATE-OF-THE-ART? No, there are more advanced CPM approaches US Highway Safety Manual proposes Safety Performance Functions and Crash Modification Factors www.ptvgroup.com Page 33
PILOT PROJECT FOR ZÜRICH NEW MOTORWAY SEGMENT (1) Length: 10.6 km Costs: 2.85 Mrd. CHF Length: 15.7 km Costs: 1.14 Mrd. CHF Reference: Office of Transport (2009), swissinfo.ch (2009) Stadt Zürich Dienstabteilung Verkehr www.ptvgroup.com Page 34
THE MEASURE NEW MOTORWAY SEGMENT (2) Reference: Canton of Zurich (2012), PTV Group (2014) Stadt Zürich Dienstabteilung Verkehr www.ptvgroup.com Page 35
THE MEASURE NEW MOTORWAY SEGMENT (3) Reference: Canton of Zurich (2012), PTV Group (2014) Stadt Zürich Dienstabteilung Verkehr www.ptvgroup.com Page 36
THE IMPACT OF THE MEASURE (1) Reference: Canton of Zurich (2012), PTV Group (2014) www.ptvgroup.com Page 37 Stadt Zürich Dienstabteilung Verkehr
THE IMPACT OF THE MEASURE (2) Traffic volume differences: +/- 1000 vehicles or +/- 5% Reference: Canton of Zurich (2012), PTV Group (2014) Stadt Zürich Dienstabteilung Verkehr www.ptvgroup.com Page 38
THE IMPACT OF THE MEASURE (3) Reference: Canton of Zurich (2012), PTV Group (2014) Stadt Zürich Dienstabteilung Verkehr www.ptvgroup.com Page 39
HISTORICAL CRASH DATA Reference: Canton of Zurich (2012), PTV Group (2014) Stadt Zürich Dienstabteilung Verkehr www.ptvgroup.com Page 40
MAIN RESULTS RIA crash counts historical crash counts Before 3 129 4 862 After 2 617 4 356-512 -506 in [%] -16,4% -10,4% Reference: Canton of Zurich (2012), PTV Group (2014) Stadt Zürich Dienstabteilung Verkehr www.ptvgroup.com Page 41
CLOSING REMARKS PTV Visum Safety offers functionalities for different road infrastructure safety management methods Need for an integrative approach Data availability is an issue Easy to use, pragmatic solutions are beneficial Complexity can be added at a later stage Don t wait act now! www.ptvgroup.com Page 42
www.ptvgroup.com Timo Hoffmann Business Development Safety PTV Group timo.hoffmann@ptvgroup.com 2014-10-17