Providing Choices for Sustainable Mobility Takehito Yokoo Toyota Motor Engineering & Manufacturing North America, Inc.
Supply & Demand Potential of Alternative Fuels Oil demand & supply 120 100 80 60 40 20 Potential oil demand Amount for alternatives to oil Toyota estimate Oil supply Alternative energy supply potential 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Improve efficiency Electricity/Hydrogen Bio-fuel CNG Synthetic-fuel Super heavy oil (Million 0 b/d) 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 (Million b/d) 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Each alternative fuel has advantages and disadvantages - Oil will remain the main fuel for sometime - Future automotive fuels will diversify
Diversification of Automotive Fuels and Powertrains Primary Energy Powertrain Oil Natural gas Coal Plant Uranium Hydro, solar, geothermal power Gasoline Diesel Gas fuels Synthetic liquid fuels Bio-fuel Electricity Hydrogen Automotive fuel Internal combustion engine Conventional vehicle & HV PHV EV FCV Core technology Next-generation technology Save oil Alternatives to oil
Multiple Pathways Improve Efficiency Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCHV-adv) Electric Vehicle Gasoline Hybrid (Prius) Gasoline ICE (Toyota Calculation) Energy pathway Natural gas Hydrogen*3 Natural gas Membrane separation Gas-fired power gen. Electricity Crude oil Refine Gasoline Crude oil Gasoline Well-to-Tank 0% 50% 39% 67% *2 84% 84% Tank-to-Wheel 0% 50% 40% 59% 85% Refine 23% Well-to-Wheel *1 0% 20% 40% 40% 33% 34% 19% *1 Tank-to-Wheel efficiency: measured in the Japanese 10-15 test cycle *2 Efficiency difference between 35MPa and 70MPa: approx. 2% *3 Hydrogen at 70MPa
Vision of the Future Vehicle Market Vehicle size HV & PHV with internal combustion engine FCHV Heavy-duty trucks Passenger cars Route buses EVs Small delivery vehicles Short-distance vehicles HV FCHV(BUS) FCHV Delivery trucks Winglet i-real EV Motorcycles PHV EV: short-distance vehicles; HV and PHV: wide-use vehicles; FCHV: wide-use (incl. HD). Energy sources Electricity Hydrocarbon Hydrogen Driving distance
System Cost Comparison Between EV and FCV System cost EV EV is advantageous FCV FCV is advantageous Cruising range EV has the advantage for short-to-mid range applications FCV has the advantage for mid-to-long range applications
Electric Vehicle (EV) L: 2,985 mm, H:1,500 mm, W: 1,680 mm Range (JC08 test cycle): 105 km Maximum speed: 125km/h Lithium-ion battery Charging time: Capacity: Approx. 11 kwh Approx. 4 hrs (200 V), 10 hrs (100V) Approx. 15min (DC quick, 80%)
EV Joint Venture 2012: Launch in U.S. market Range (estimated real-world): 100 mile Maximum speed: TBD Lithium-ion battery Capacity: TBD (demo vehicles 30+ kwh) Charging time: Approx: 8 to 16 hours SAE J1772 Level 2 and Level 1
Consumer Acceptance for EVs Only in Niches Customers have HIGH ANXIETY on, Driving Range Time for Charging Electricity Cost Top reasons for not considering PHV (expect EV to be similar after consumer education) Source: 2010 Alt Fuels Study
EV Refueling(Charging)study Data from AB1811 Study Activity 1 PHEV Prius @ Sacramento area: 4/7/09 to 1/21/10 1 PHEV Prius @ Orange County are: 7/23/09 to 2/3/10 The total distance drive is: 18064 miles The total energy used (engine + battery) is: 4270 kwh The average energy economy is: 236 Wh/mile 4.2 miles/kwh
EV Refueling (Charging)study Frequency (%) 25 20 15 10 5 AB1811 Study Activity Ave. 10hrs 20 % 0-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Time Sitting (hr) Parking event distribution (total of 1724 times parking) 80% 60% 40% 20% (a) The total distance (b) The total time sitting (c) The total energy used (engine + battery) 18064 miles 9892 hours 4270 kwh Can overnight and daytime long charge cover necessary energy for entire drive? 1724x0.2 = 345 parking events (Ave.10hrs/park) The parking time (345x10hrs) = 3,450hrs To cover 4270kWh in 3,450hrs 11.2 Amp/100V or 6 Amp/208V Very roughly, the total energy needed could be charged by overnight + day time (7.5-12.5hrs) parked opportunity.
EV Refueling (Charging)study Frequency (%) 25 20 15 10 5 AB1811 Study Activity Distance Driven (miles) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Time Sitting (hr) Park time distribution 0 0 5 10 15 20 Time Sitting (hr) One time driving distance vs Park time So many parking (possible refuel) opportunities. Full tank(100%soc) refuel may not be the only choice for EV. Frequent / partial refuel style should be explore. Possible small battery EV concept.
EV Refueling (Charging)study AB1811 Study Activity Distance Driven (miles) 300 250 200 150 100 50 Fast Chgr Level 2 data 12A@110V 30A@240V Level 1 0 0 5 10 15 20 Time Sitting (hr) One time driving distance vs Park time Customers can get benefit from all kinds of chargers. Yet, EV customers may have to give up certain driving style such as short stop followed by 50-100 miles drive.
Market needs experts support for success Do customers understand, Why they want EV?, How to choose correct EV product? Agree on a balance between the merits and demerits. How to adopt and be comfortable with new driving behaviors (especially spontaneity and route planning)? Has to plan charging time as a part of trip planning. The driving range will vary day by day, and will go down over time. Remaining driving range varies based on up hill and more on down hill regeneration energy. Do customers know, What does home charger mean to them? A charger cable may transfers more energy than normal residential home utility line. What does that mean? Maintain EVSE in good condition is critically important
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