ACCESS MODE CHOICE MODEL FOR INTERCITY PASSENGER TRAVEL Prof. CSRK Prasad Head, Transportation Division NIT Warangal
OUTLINE Urbanisation / Intercity Passenger Travel Significance of Intercity Terminal Access Intercity Access Mode Choice Modeling Framework Study Area / Data Collection Access Mode Choice Models Conclusions 8 December 2010 NIT Warangal 2
Urbanisation Trends in India Urban Population 1901 10% of the total population 2001 28% of the 100 crores population 2025 40% of the 140 crores population 70% of Urban Population in Class I cities 38% of Urban Population in 35 Metropolitan cities
Urbanisation Intercity Travel This steadily increasing urbanisation of towns has led to heavy movement of persons and materials not only within urban limits but also among the cities and towns at regional level. The expanding cities and the growing mobility of the population and goods have created greater demand for transportation between cities. 8 December 2010 NIT Warangal 4
Town Town Definition of Intercity Travel CITY A Village Town Town CITY B Town Village CITY C Town 8 December 2010 NIT Warangal 5 Village Village
Factors having Influence on Intercity Passenger Mode Choice INTERCITY MODE CHOICE INTERCITY TRANSPORTATION SERVICE CHARACTERISTICS TRIP MAKER CHARACTERISTICS TRIP CHARACTERISTICS ACCESS/EGRESS SERVICE CHARACTERISTIC S Travel Time Waiting Time Travel Cost Comfort Convenience Reliability Safety Dust Noise Frequency Service classes Age Gender Marital Status Family size Car ownership Income Education Social status Occupation Trip Purpose Trip Length Travelling Party size Terminal Location Access / Egress distance Access / Egress Travel Time Access / Egress Travel Cost Modes Available 8 December 2010 NIT Warangal 6
Importance of Terminal Access The characteristics of the intercity transportation system and access/egress service directly affect mode choice decisions. The persons residing nearer to an intercity transport terminal are more likely to choose those modes operating from the terminal and persons located far away from the terminal may use other modes. The nature of the local access characteristics may be such that, for short intercity trips, the most efficient area of improvement would be local access conditions rather than intercity mode characteristics. It is also observed that the traveller is concerned with the door to door service provided by the transportation system and not just with the service on one segment of his trip. 8 December 2010 NIT Warangal 7
Road Space in Metropolitan Cities Developed countries 25% of total area India 15% of total area 2 lakh km of road length in Urban areas
Study Group on Alternative Systems of Urban Transport City Size in millions Recommended Share of Mass Transit >0.5 & <1.0 30% 1.0 35%+ 1.5 40%+ 3.0 50%+ 6.0 70%+ 9.0 & above 75%+
NESTED TREE STRUCTURE TRIP INTERCITY TRIP LEVEL RAIL BUS ACCESS TRIP LEVEL OV AUTO BUS OV AUTO BUS 8 December 2010 NIT Warangal 10
MODEL SPECIFICATION NESTED LOGIT MODEL (DUAL RUN OF LOGIT) P in = e uin / e ujn PROPERTIES 0 P in 1 P in = 1. ULOGIT PACKAGE 8 December 2010 NIT Warangal 11
Study Area 8 December 2010 NIT Warangal 12
Data Collection Warangal City to other cities in AP Hyderabad Warangal Vijayawada corridor Warangal Ramagundam corridor Nellore Visakhapatnam corridor Surveys Conducted at both Rail and Bus Terminals Trip maker characteristics Trip characteristics Access service characteristics Sample Size 496 (Train-199 & Bus-297) 8 December 2010 NIT Warangal 13
OCCUPATION OF PASSENGERS OCCUPATION TRAIN CHOSEN PASSENGERS BUS CHOSEN PASSENGERS COMBINED PASSENEGRS NO. % NO. % NO. % UNEMPLOYED 27 9.09 49 24.62 76 15.32 GOVT. EMOPLOYEE 50 16.84 16 8.04 66 13.31 PVT. EMPLOYEE 77 25.93 62 31.16 139 28.02 BUSINESS 46 15.49 43 21.61 89 17.94 HOUSE WIVES 7 2.36 15 7.54 22 4.44 OTHERS 90 30.30 14 7.04 104 20.97 TOTAL 297 100 199 100 496 100 8 December 2010 NIT Warangal 14
MONTHLY FAMILY INCOME DISTRIBUTION FAMILY INCOME TRAIN CHOSEN PASSENGERS BUS CHOSEN PASSENGERS COMBINED PASSENEGRS NO. % NO. % NO. % <=5000 35 11.78 9 4.52 44 8.87 5000-10000 98 33.00 46 23.12 144 29.03 10000-20000 74 24.92 92 46.23 166 33.47 20000-30000 43 14.48 29 14.57 72 14.52 >=30000 47 15.82 23 11.56 70 14.11 TOTAL 297 100 199 100 496 100 8 December 2010 NIT Warangal 15
PURPOSE OF JOURNEY TRIP PURPOSE TRAIN CHOSEN PASSENGERS BUS CHOSEN PASSENGERS COMBINED PASSENEGRS NO. % NO. % NO. % WORK 101 34.01 26 13.07 127 25.60 BUSSINESS 13 4.38 30 15.08 43 8.67 SOCIAL 68 22.90 50 25.13 118 23.79 RECREATION 53 17.85 29 14.57 82 16.53 OTHERS 62 20.88 64 32.16 126 25.40 TOTAL 297 100 199 100 496 100 8 December 2010 NIT Warangal 16
TRAVEL GROUP SIZE VS MODE CHOICE PARTY SIZE TRAIN CHOSEN PASSENGERS BUS CHOSEN PASSENGERS COMBINED PASSENEGRS NO. % NO. % NO. % 1 213 71.72 148 74.37 361 72.78 2 46 15.49 43 21.61 89 17.94 3 16 5.39 5 2.51 21 4.23 4 12 4.04 3 1.51 15 3.02 5+ 10 3.37 0 0.00 10 2.02 TOTAL 297 100 199 100 496 100 8 December 2010 NIT Warangal 17
MODEL CALIBRATION Segmentation Vehicle Ownership VO=0; VO 1. Explanatory Variables Fare, Time, Waiting Time, Party Size, Vown. 8 December 2010 NIT Warangal 18
UTILITY EXPRESSIONS VEHICLE OWNERSHIP 1 V(City Bus) = fare coeff * city bus fare + time coeff * city bus time + waiting time coeff * city bus waiting time + party size coeff * party size + vehicle ownership coeff * vehicle ownership. V(Auto) = fare coeff * auto fare + time coeff * auto time + auto constant. V(Own Vehicle) = fare coeff * own vehicle fare + time coeff * own vehicle time + own vehicle constant. VEHICLE OWNERSHIP 0 V(City Bus) = fare coeff * city bus fare + time coeff * city bus time + waiting time coeff * city bus waiting time + party size coeff * party size V(Auto) = fare coeff * auto fare + time coeff * auto time + auto constant. 8 December 2010 NIT Warangal 19
Bus Access Mode Choice Model COEFF NAME BUS PASSENGERS VO = 0 VO 1 COEFF T-RATIO COEFF T-RATIO FARE -0.3749-2.77-0.8478-3.94 TIME -0.0181-3.14-0.8080-4.97 WAITING TIME -0.1050-2.80-1.0385-4.65 PARTY SIZE 0.0281 4.03 1.7282 3.32 VEHICLE OWNERSHIP - - -1.2771-2.43 AR CONST. 1.6541 5.78-4.3590-2.30 OV CONST. - - -7.9135-2.26 PSEUDO R-SQUARE VALUE 0.4351 0.7284 8 December 2010 NIT Warangal 20
Train Access Mode Choice Model COEFF NAME TRAIN PASSENGERS VO = 0 VO 1 COEFF T-RATIO COEFF T-RATIO FARE -0.0019-2.36-0.0174-2.42 TIME -0.1730-2.94-0.4261-5.16 WAITING TIME -0.1161-2.62-0.1621-2.97 PARTY SIZE 0.3943 2.26 0.6152 2.99 VEHICLE OWNERSHIP - - -1.3355-2.49 AR CONST. 1.0136 3.98-0.7049-2.71 OV CONST. - - -2.6512-2.62 PSEUDO R-SQUARE VALUE 0.6025 0.2682 8 December 2010 NIT Warangal 21
CONCLUSIONS Passengers - Sensitive to Access Time, Fare, Party size and Waiting Time. Vehicle Owners - Sensitive to Time and Waiting time of the Access Service in Relation to No Vehicle Group. 8 December 2010 NIT Warangal 22
Thank you 8 December 2010 NIT Warangal 23