New Business Models for the gmentation of Public Transport Capa Amit Bhatt, Director - Integrated Transport, WRI India
INDIA Population: 1.2 Billion (2011 Census) 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 The second-most populated country in the world, population expected to surpass China in 2030. India occupies 2.4% of world s area and supports 16.9% of the world s population Source: Census 2011 Population Growth 1220.00 1200.00 1180.00 1160.00 1140.00 1120.00 1100.00 1080.00 1060.00 1040.00 1020.00 Population in million 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IN INDIA Road Rail Air Water Total Road Length: 48,65, 394 km NH: 76,818 km SH: 1,64,360 Rural Roads: 19,38,220 km Urban Roads: 4,64,294 km Road Length increased 12 times between 1951 to 2012 Road Length per 1000 sq. km: 1480 km Road Length per 1000 Population: 4.03 km 7500 Railway Stations 64, 600 km route 12000 and 7000 pass & freight trains a day 2.8 million tonnes of freight a day 25 million pass a day 3rd Largest Rail Network in the World 132 Airports in India 32 International and 154 Domestic Airport 27 Proposed Airports 20 operational airlines in India 407.96 million international passenger traffic handled 121.51 million domestic passenger traffic handled in 2011-12 1.4 and 0.8 million tonnes of cargo handled in 2011-12 12 Major Ports and 200 non-major Ports 917 million tones of Cargo traffic Handled 21.5 million passenger traffic handled 6 National Waterways of length 4503 km serving 15 states 40% of cargo and 98% of passenger traffic handled by non-major ports. Source: Infrastructure Statistics -2014, MoSPI
SNAPSHOT OF SHARE OF TRANSPORT BY MODE IN INDIA Share of passengers by mode Traffic by air 2% Traffic by Road 85% Traffic by Railway 13% 2/3 rd of which is Bus Transport Year 2012-13 Passenger KM in Billion Passenger By Public Transport 5756 Traffic by air 108 Traffic by Railway 740 Traffic by Road 4908 % share of Road Transport 85% Traffic by Buses 4173 % share of Bus 74% Traffic by State transport buses 485 % share of STU buses 8% Traffic by Private operated buses 3688 % share of Private buses 64% Source : CRISL Railway Aviation CIRT
Commute Pattern
HOW INDIA COMMUTES TO WORK: CENSUS 2011 Commute Pattern Commuting in Mega Cities On foot Bicycle Moped/Scooter/Motor Cycle Car/Jeep/Van Tempo/Auto/Taxi Bus Train Water Transport 1% 30% 3% 11% 3% 3% 13% 23% 13% Source: The Hindu, 2015, Census 2011 Source: The Hindu, 2015, Census 2011
Bus Transport Statistics
ESTIMATED OWNERSHIP PATTERN OF BUSES IN INDIA (2012) Private Sector 38% School & Employee Transport 53% Public Sector / STU's 9% Total Buses around 1.7 million
BUS TRANSPORT A state-wise comparison Of the population served by each SRTC bus: 2012-13 Over 250 million passengers uses the government-owned buses daily Southern states outclass northern states in availability of buses Bihar operates just one SRTU bus per 2.5 lakh people. Karnataka has one of the best network of SRTU buses available one bus every 2700 persons
BUSES PER 1000 POPULATION IN SELECT COUNTRIES Country Buses per 1000 population Australia 4 Bangladesh 1 Brazil 4 China 2 France 1 Germany 1 India 1 Japan 2 Malaysia 3 Mexico 3 Russian Federation 0.5 South Africa 6 Thailand 8 UK 3 USA 2 India has less than one bus for every 1000 citizens India typically has 0.5-1 buses per 1000 population Countries like Mexico, Brazil, China boast of more than 2 buses per 1000 population This has an effect on waiting time, number of citizens catered to and headway Less connectivity by buses gives rise to innovative and often unsafe IPT options Source: Review of the Performance of State Road Transport Undertakings (Passenger Services) for April, 2013 March, 2014
BUSES REQUIRED IN 2021 Office of the Registrar Population in 2021 1.35 BillionGeneral, India Urban Population in 2021 530 Million MoUD Buses per lakh population in urban Min of Fin and ADB areas 60 Toolkit 2010 Number of buses required in urban areas 318,000 Buses per lakh population for intercity travel 40 Lee Schipper, 2008 Number of buses for intercity travel 326,800 Total number of buses required in 2021 644,800
BUS TRANSPORT FROM HERE TO THERE
MANUFACTURING CAPACITY 120000 100000 Growth in production of buses 1,13,000 Production of buses in 2009-10 is 46,000 80000 60000 80,500 Projected production of buses in 2020 is 80,500 and that in 2030 is 1,13,000 40000 20000 But, India requires more than 3 lakh buses in cities alone 0 Source: https://data.gov.in/resources/, MoSPI
TAXATION Government bus operators are liable for as many as 13 different taxes on their assets and operations Taxes contribute close to 20% of an STU s operating cost. In 2015, of all reporting STUs, ten STUs declared a surplus before taxes, but only three remained self-sufficient after clearing their direct tax liabilities. In 2014-15, BMTC reported a loss of INR 649 million, with a total tax liability of INR 3.096 billion from Motor Vehicle and fuel tax alone. Benefits of Lowering Taxes for Public Agencies Source: Calculation by WRI India based on MoRTH Data
REGULATION Contract carriage vs Stage Carriage Service innovation Competition Regulation needs to change
LIMITED FINANCING OF BUS TRANSPORT Fare Box is main source of revenue Non fare box sources are less than 5% National financing for buses under JNNURM Viability gap, especially for operations is an issue Source: Bus Karo 2.0 Case Studies from India, WRI
TECHNOLOGY HAS FOUND LIMITED IMPACT Need for deploying a system with protocol sharing between the bus manufacturers and system vendors Setting up fully functional Traffic Management Centres for coordinating ITS activities ITS in City Bus Services Source: Bus Karo 2.0 Case Studies from India, WRI
TECHNICAL CAPACITY There is negligible technical expertise with SRTU s across the country DTC, BEST does not have a transport engineer or a planner in the team BEST employs non-transport planners as planners BMTC has DT Planning and DT Engineering as a post Source: Bus Karo 2.0 Case Studies from India, WRI
LIMITED COMPETITION About half of the buses sold in India are manufactured by TATA Motors Ashok Leyland and TATA Motors together constitute about 75% of the market share of buses Mahindra, SML Isuzu, Volvo- Eicher, etc constitute the non-public buses (School, Office, Tour buses) Share of Sale of Buses AB Volvo 1% SML Isuzu 9% Mahindra 6% Volvo-Eicher 12% Ashok Leyland 23% Tata Motors 49% Source: Sharpe, 2015
Thank you abhatt@wri.org