FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE More Now Disapprove of Trudeau Than Approve Liberals and Conservatives tied, but Liberals still edge out a minority Toronto, April 26 th In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll amongst 1479 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, the Liberals (35%) and the Conservatives (35%) are tied. The NDP is third (17%), with the Green Party (7%) and the BQ (5%) following behind. (1%) say they support another party. Liberal support is down one point since March (36%: March 24 th ), Conservative support is down three points (38%: March 24 th ), NDP support is up two points (15%: March 24 th ), Green Party support has almost doubled (4%: March 24 th ), and BQ support is down one point (5%). Liberal minority if election held today If an election were held today, the Conservatives would win 137 seats, the Liberals 152, the NDP 36, the BQ 12, and 1 for the Green. The drop in Conservative support since March is matched by a commensurate drop in potential seats, which sees their total reduced by 33, with the BQ down 1. The Liberals see an increase of 22, the NDP an increase of 10, with Green unchanged at 1. Trudeau sees a negative net favourable score Trudeau s disapproval (47%) now exceeds his approval (42%), a net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) of -5, which a stark contrast from six months ago when his score was positively in double digits. (10%) say they don t know whether they approve or disapprove. Rona Ambrose sees an approval of (32%) and a disapproval (23%), showing a net favourable score of +9. Almost half of respondents say they do not (45%) whether to approve or disapprove. Tom Mulcair sees an approval of (32%) but his disapproval is higher than that of Ambrose (29%), but his net favourable is still positive at +3. Almost 4-in-10 (39%) say they do not know whether to approve or disapprove. Despite his negative favourable, Trudeau still seen as best PM Almost a third see Justin Trudeau (32%) as the best PM. Only (12%) see Rona Ambrose, and (10%) see Tom Mulcair as the best candidate for PM. None of these is the top second choice (22%), followed by do not know (15%). 1 Justin Trudeau s level of approval should be of concern to Liberals across the country, as the once irrepressibly popular Prime Minister now sees his disapproval exceed his approval. Perhaps it s the aftermath of an unpopular budget, or just a general lack of interest that comes with the middle of a mandate, but, whatever the cause, Trudeau doesn t seem to be connecting with Canadians right now, said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research.
Justin Trudeau s level of approval should be of concern to Liberals across the country, as the once irrepressibly popular Prime Minister now sees his disapproval exceed his approval. Perhaps it s the aftermath of an unpopular budget, or just a general lack of interest that comes with the middle of a mandate, but, whatever the cause, Trudeau doesn t seem to be connecting with Canadians right now, said Dr. of Forum Research. Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603. 2
Methodology The Forum Poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1479 randomly selected Canadian Voters. The poll was conducted April 21-24, 2017. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available at www./samplestim.asp Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data. This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather, captures opinion at one point in time. Forum Research conducted this poll as a public service and to demonstrate our survey research capabilities. Forum houses its poll results in the Data Library of the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian-owned Forum Research is one of the country s leading survey research firms. This Forum Poll and other polls may be found at Forum's poll archive at www./polls.asp 3
Federal Party Preference Trending [Decided/Leaning] % Sample Cons Lib NDP Green Bloc Other April 21 st -24 th, 2017 1479 35 35 17 7 5 1 Mar 22 nd - 23 rd, 2017 1029 38 36 15 4 6 0 Feb. 24 th - 26 th, 2017 1340 35 39 15 4 7 1 Jan. 19 th -21 st, 2017 1332 36 42 12 5 4 1 Dec. 6 th -8 th, 2016 1304 34 42 12 6 5 1 November 9 th -10 th, 2016 1474 28 51 11 5 4 1 October 11 th -12 th 1384 30 49 12 4 5 1 September 20-21 st, 2016 1326 34 47 9 3 6 0 September 7 th, 2016 1370 30 48 11 4 5 0 August 6 th, 2016 1345 31 50 10 4 4 1 July 6 th, 2016 1429 28 52 11 3 5 1 June 7 th, 2016 2271 32 49 10 4 4 1 April 4 th -5 th, 2016 1455 28 51 12 3 6 1 March 15 th, 2016 1567 34 46 12 3 4 1 Feb. 16 th -17 th, 2016 1406 32 49 10 5 3 1 Dec. 6 th -8 th, 2015 1369 32 46 13 4 4 1 November 17 th, 2015 909 37 45 10 3 4 1 Nov. 4 th -7 th, 2015 1256 25 55 12 3 4 1 Election: Oct. 19 th, 2015 32 40 20 3 5 0 October 18 th, 2015 1373 30 40 20 3 6 1 Oct. 13 th -14 th, 2015 1438 31 37 24 2 6 1 Oct. 9 th, 2015 1427 31 37 23 3 5 1 Oct 5 th -6 th, 2015 1447 31 35 26 3 4 1 Sept. 28-29 th, 2015 1449 34 27 28 5 5 1 Sept. 21-23 rd, 2015 1557 31 31 28 4 4 1 Sept. 18 th, 2015 922 33 29 29 4 4 1 Sept. 14-15 th, 2015 1402 32 28 30 6 4 1 Sept. 9-10 th, 2015 1308 28 29 36 3 3 1 August 30-Sept. 1 st, 2015 1384 24 32 36 4 4 1 August 23-24 th, 2015 1440 23 30 40 3 3 1 August 17-19 th, 2015 1473 29 28 34 4 4 1 August 10-11 th, 2015 1392 28 27 34 4 6 1 August 2 nd, 2015 1399 28 25 39 3 5 1 July 29 th, 2015 1397 33 25 33 4 4 1 July 21 st, 2015 1208 28 29 34 4 5 1 July 14 th, 2015 1251 27 27 34 5 7 1 July 8 th, 2015 1200 32 26 32 3 5 1 4
5 Seat Distribution Projection Trending % Cons Lib NDP Green Bloc Other April 21 st -24 th, 2017 137 152 36 1 12 0 Mar 22 nd 23 rd, 2017 170 128 26 1 13 0 February 24 th 26 th, 2017 120 174 20 1 23 0 January 19 th 21 st, 2017 131 187 15 1 4 0 Dec. 6 th -8 th, 2016 135 180 18 1 4 0 November 9 th -10 th, 2016 72 257 8 1 0 0 October 11 th -12 th 83 240 14 1 0 0 September 20-21 st, 2016 111 219 7 1 0 0 September 7 th, 2016 87 238 8 1 4 0 August 6 th, 2016 81 246 10 1 0 0 July 6 th, 2016 55 278 5 0 0 0 June 7 th, 2016 98 230 9 1 0 0 April 4 th -5 th, 2016 74 256 5 1 2 0 March 15 th, 2016 111 215 11 1 0 0 February 16 th -17 th, 2016 91 240 6 1 0 0 December 6 th -8 th, 2015 99 224 14 1 0 0 November 17 th, 2015 108 222 6 0 2 0 November 4 th -7 th, 2015 57 276 5 0 0 0 Election: October 19 th, 2015 99 184 44 1 10 0 October 18 th, 2015 109 171 46 1 11 0 Oct. 13 th -14 th, 2015 114 127 77 1 19 0 October 9 th, 2015 116 145 69 1 7 0 October 5 th -6 th, 2015 122 120 94 1 1 0 September 28-29 th, 2015 151 76 104 1 6 0 September 21-23 rd, 2015 125 107 104 1 1 0 September 18 th, 2015 145 97 95 1 0 0 September 14-15 th, 2015 138 86 113 1 0 0 September 9-10 th, 2015 113 85 139 1 0 0 August 30-September 1 st, 2015 73 123 141 1 0 0 August 23-24 th, 2015 87 76 174 1 0 0 August 17-19 th, 2015 123 79 133 1 2 0 August 10-11 th, 2015 120 89 125 1 3 0 August 2 nd, 2015 118 58 160 1 1 0 July 29 th, 2015 156 58 122 1 1 0 July 21 st, 2015 121 78 134 1 4 0 July 14 th, 2015 107 79 132 1 19 0 July 8 th, 2015 155 59 120 1 2 1 June 29 th, 2015 104 106 119 1 8 0 June 23 rd, 2015 116 65 149 1 3 0 June 16 th, 2015 112 86 120 1 18 1 June 5 th, 2015 151 101 83 1 1 1 May 14 th, 2015 131 95 111 1 0 0
Ballot intention If a federal election were held today, which party are you most likely to vote for? + Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party are you leaning towards at this time? Decided and leaning Age/Gender % Total 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Male Female Sample 1372 258 187 218 296 413 747 601 Conservative 35 32 42 34 35 33 40 29 Liberal 35 31 28 37 35 42 31 40 New Democratic 17 22 17 16 16 14 16 18 Green 7 11 7 7 5 5 6 7 Bloc Quebecois 5 4 5 5 8 6 5 5 Other 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 Income % Total <$20K $20-$40K $40-$60K $60-$80K $80-$100K $100-$250K Sample 1372 157 223 229 171 125 226 Conservative 35 17 33 37 31 39 40 Liberal 35 33 33 33 35 35 41 New Democratic 17 25 19 18 19 17 14 Green 7 11 6 7 8 8 4 Bloc Quebecois 5 11 9 5 6 2 1 Other 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 Region % Total Atl Que ON Man/Sask AB BC Sample 1372 91 330 497 120 147 187 Conservative 35 31 17 39 42 69 23 Liberal 35 48 36 36 40 16 38 New Democratic 17 8 19 18 11 10 25 Green 7 11 6 6 6 4 13 Bloc Quebecois 5 0 22 0 0 0 0 Other 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 6
Education % Total Secondary school or less Some college or university Completed college or university Post graduate studies Sample 1372 233 345 531 263 Conservative 35 38 39 33 30 Liberal 35 31 28 35 47 New Democratic 17 19 18 19 10 Green 7 4 7 8 8 Bloc Quebecois 5 7 7 4 4 Other 1 1 1 1 1 7
Trudeau approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Justin Trudeau is doing as Prime Minister? Age/Gender % Total 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Male Female Sample 1479 277 209 235 324 434 788 662 Approve 42 42 43 39 41 47 38 48 Disapprove 47 47 48 49 50 42 54 40 Don t know 10 10 9 12 10 11 8 12 Income % Total <$20K $20-$40K $40-$60K $60-$80K $80-$100K $100-$250K Sample 1479 173 243 243 182 131 234 Approve 42 44 46 39 42 40 46 Disapprove 47 43 45 48 46 52 49 Don t know 10 13 9 12 12 8 6 Region % Total Atl Que ON Man/Sask AB BC Sample 1479 99 356 536 129 158 201 Approve 42 43 49 43 37 22 46 Disapprove 47 42 38 46 57 70 44 Don t know 10 15 13 10 7 8 9 Education % Total Secondary Some college or Completed college Post graduate school or less university or university studies Sample 1479 262 379 559 279 Approve 42 33 37 45 52 Disapprove 47 52 51 46 40 Don t know 10 15 12 9 8 Voter Intention % Total Cons Lib NDP Green Bloc Other Parties Sample 1479 456 456 230 118 71 41 Approve 42 8 86 41 39 33 21 Disapprove 47 87 5 47 46 60 74 Don t know 10 5 9 12 15 7 5 8
Ambrose approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Rona Ambrose (RON-na) is doing as interim leader of the opposition? Age/Gender % Total 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Male Female Sample 1479 277 209 235 324 434 788 662 Approve 32 25 29 34 34 44 39 26 Disapprove 23 23 24 26 23 18 25 21 Don t know 45 52 47 41 43 38 36 54 Income % Total <$20K $20-$40K $40-$60K $60-$80K $80-$100K $100-$250K Sample 1479 173 243 243 182 131 234 Approve 32 29 32 24 30 37 40 Disapprove 23 20 16 27 23 29 27 Don t know 45 52 52 49 47 33 33 Region % Total Atl Que ON Man/Sask AB BC Sample 1479 99 356 536 129 158 201 Approve 32 30 27 31 37 50 32 Disapprove 23 21 20 25 19 21 26 Don t know 45 49 54 44 43 29 43 Education % Total Secondary Some college or Completed college Post graduate school or less university or university studies Sample 1479 262 379 559 279 Approve 32 30 27 32 40 Disapprove 23 18 25 23 24 Don t know 45 52 48 45 36 Voter Intention % Total Cons Lib NDP Green Bloc Other Parties Sample 1479 456 456 230 118 71 41 Approve 32 48 27 26 23 28 28 Disapprove 23 17 24 31 21 31 41 Don t know 45 34 49 43 56 41 31 9
Mulcair approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tom Mulcair is doing as interim leader of the NDP? Age/Gender % Total 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Male Female Sample 1479 277 209 235 324 434 788 662 Approve 32 28 30 32 35 35 33 31 Disapprove 29 27 32 31 26 30 36 23 Don t know 39 44 38 37 38 35 32 47 Income % Total <$20K $20-$40K $40-$60K $60-$80K $80-$100K $100-$250K Sample 1479 173 243 243 182 131 234 Approve 32 28 34 39 33 33 31 Disapprove 29 27 20 28 30 35 36 Don t know 39 44 46 33 37 33 33 Region % Total Atl Que ON Man/Sask AB BC Sample 1479 99 356 536 129 158 201 Approve 32 28 46 29 25 21 27 Disapprove 29 24 21 29 32 47 34 Don t know 39 48 33 42 43 32 39 Education % Total Secondary Some college or Completed college Post graduate school or less university or university studies Sample 1479 262 379 559 279 Approve 32 26 32 33 34 Disapprove 29 24 31 29 34 Don t know 39 50 38 38 32 Voter Intention % Total Cons Lib NDP Green Bloc Other Parties Sample 1479 456 456 230 118 71 41 Approve 32 23 31 60 27 45 13 Disapprove 29 40 29 13 29 38 56 Don t know 39 38 41 26 44 17 31 10
Best PM Regardless of which party you plan to vote for, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? Age/Gender % Total 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Male Female Sample 1479 277 209 235 324 434 788 662 Justin Trudeau 32 31 30 32 31 37 30 35 Rona (RON-nah) Ambrose 12 10 10 14 14 15 16 9 Tom Mulcair 10 10 11 8 9 10 10 9 Elizabeth May 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 Rheal Fortin 2 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 None of these 22 22 26 22 22 15 24 19 Don t know 15 16 14 15 16 12 11 19 Income % Total <$20K $20- $40- $60- $80- $100- $40K $60K $80K $100K $250K Sample 1479 173 243 243 182 131 234 Justin Trudeau 32 31 32 32 30 39 36 Rona (RON-nah) Ambrose 12 5 10 10 15 17 15 Tom Mulcair 10 9 10 9 12 12 8 Elizabeth May 8 8 6 8 12 7 7 Rheal Fortin 2 3 3 2 2 1 0 None of these 22 21 21 23 21 16 25 Don t know 15 24 17 15 8 8 8 Region % Total Atl Que ON Man/Sask AB BC Sample 1479 99 356 536 129 158 201 Justin Trudeau 32 35 36 33 23 18 37 Rona (RON-nah) Ambrose 12 11 4 12 15 31 11 Tom Mulcair 10 12 16 6 7 5 12 Elizabeth May 8 13 5 8 8 1 11 Rheal Fortin 2 0 5 2 1 1 1 None of these 22 16 22 23 19 31 14 Don t know 15 13 13 15 27 12 14 11
Education % Total Secondary school or less Some college or university Completed college or university Post graduate studies Sample 1479 262 379 559 279 Justin Trudeau 32 29 30 32 38 Rona (RONnah) Ambrose 12 11 10 14 12 Tom Mulcair 10 6 10 10 10 Elizabeth May 8 4 7 8 10 Rheal Fortin 2 3 3 2 1 None of these 22 24 24 21 18 Don t know 15 23 15 13 11 Voter Intention % Total Cons Lib NDP Green Bloc Other Parties Sample 1479 456 456 230 118 71 41 Justin Trudeau 32 5 77 22 21 18 11 Rona (RON-nah) Ambrose 12 35 2 4 3 1 1 Tom Mulcair 10 4 2 34 7 22 3 Elizabeth May 8 3 4 8 39 5 8 Rheal Fortin 2 2 2 1 2 18 2 None of these 22 37 4 15 18 21 65 Don t know 15 16 9 15 11 15 9 For more information: Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. President Forum Research Inc. Tel: (416) 960-9603 Fax: (416) 960-9602 E-mail: 12