Transportation Electrification: The Plug-in Electric Vehicle Market, Environmental Impact, and Technology Dan Bowermaster Program Manager, Electric Transportation dbowermaster@epri.com Office: +1 650 855 8524 Mobile: +1 650 701 5099 Foro de Transporte Limpio en Latinoamérica Bogotá, Colombia 22 September 2016
EPRI s Mission Advancing safe, reliable, affordable, and environmentally responsible electricity for society through global collaboration, thought leadership, and science & technology innovation 2
Three Key Aspects of EPRI Independent Objective, scientifically based results address reliability, efficiency, affordability, health, safety, and the environment Nonprofit Chartered to serve the public benefit Collaborative Bring together scientists, engineers, academic researchers, and industry experts 3
What is Electric Transportation? A Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV)? Car Truck Bus Marine Airport Forklift Marine Motorcycle Scooter 4
Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Cumulative US Plug-in Car Sales to Date > 497,000 2016 YTD up 29% over 2015 500,000 475,000 450,000 425,000 400,000 375,000 350,000 325,000 300,000 275,000 250,000 225,000 200,000 175,000 150,000 125,000 100,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 0 Nissan GM Toyota Ford BMW Tesla OTHER PHEV TOTAL BEV TOTAL 5
Customer choice is increasing ~38 new PEVs coming in 2016-2020 6
Customer choice increasing with 38 PEVs announced to hit market from 2016 2020 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 PEV Market Launch by Category (2010-2020) 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Hatchback City Car Sedan Luxury Sedan Coupe/Sports Car SUV/Crossover Minivan/Wagon 7
The electric grid is clean and getting cleaner 15, 70, 50-15% -70% -50% 8
Electricity is also a clean transportation fuel Reduction in GHG due to electrifying transportation through 2050 Improvements to air quality (human health) due to electrifying transportation through 2030 9
But what about those headlines that claim electric vehicles are bad for the environment? 10
Charging infrastructure is not like getting gas, but more like charging your phone or laptop 11
PEV charging infrastructure is increasing 12
But most public charging networks remain fragmented 13
To help the PEV market scale, need to make the complex both simple and easy for the customer 3 rd Party Aggregator OVGIP OEM Servers ISO/IEC 15118 OVGIP Intends to Resolve Business and Operational Rules with Multiple Stakeholders 14
What s next? Now and in the future Autonomous driving Tesla, Apple, Google High power charging Current 50 kw; future 150 kw; goal 350 kw Long-distance (~200 mile) mass-market battery electric vehicles Chevy Bolt Tesla Model 3 Gen 2 Nissan LEAF Ownership Models / Transportation On-Demand Car share / Lyft / Uber 15
Together Shaping the Future of Electricity 16