TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
Road Area & Traffic Index Traffic inefficiency Index 6 5 4 3 2 1 One-way traffic Time (minutes)-lhs Traffic Inefficiency Index-RHS 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 HCMC traffic index is still the best among its peers. One-way traffic time is relatively low in HCMC (3 mins) while much higher in Ha Noi (45 mins). HCMC and Hanoi have similar land portions for transport to emerging regional cities but much lower than developed cities. Source: Numbeo.com, 216 Land portion dedicated to transport 2% Road area (% build-up area)-lhs Population density (pp/km2)-rhs 2, 15% 15, 1% 1, 5% 5, % Source: Huynh & Jose, 216; Demographia, 216 2
Parking requirement in commercial buildings (slots/1m 2 ) Private Car Ownership Car ownership and parking supply, 28 3 2 1 Dhaka Source: ADB, 211 Passenger car sales 2, 15, 1, 5, HCMC Hanoi Manila Guangzhou Singapore Hongkong Beijing Jakarta Seoul Teipei KL Bangkok Tokyo 1 2 3 4 Car ownership (per 1, pp) Income threshold US$3,-1,: car ownership increases twice as fast as per-capita income Passenger car sales grew 35% pa in last 5 years The number of passenger cars forecast to triple by 225 in HCMC and Ha Noi. Car vs. Motorcycle Road space : 4 times Parking space: 6 times Threat of a traffic gridlock? Moderate but quickly increasing population density Limited capacity for road expansion Car ownership booming 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Source: VAMA, 216 3
Parking & Private Transport Disadvantage HCMC Ha Noi Monthly parking fee in CBD, US$ 8 Parking fee amongst highest in emerging cities HCMC and Ha Noi are among the upper-left cities with relatively expensive office space and cheap parking Parking has lower return than other components, incentive challenge Only 14% of CBD buildings in HCMC meet minimum requirement (DOT) Disadvantageous private transportation More difficult and expensive CBD parking Deteriorating traffic efficiency Public transportation is the choice in future? 6 4 2 Jarkarta Manila BangKok HCMC Hanoi Singpaore Seoul Shanghai Tokyo Hongkong Source: Savills Research & Consultancy 4
Public Transport Investment Public transport mode 8% Puclic transportation share (%)-LHS Rail (km/mill pp)-rhs 4 Low share of public transport, motorcycles remain dominant mode 6% 3 Bangkok case study: 4% 2% 2 1 Worst situation in 199s: average speed 1km/h in downtown & severe air pollution % Note: * expected by 22 Source: Ely, 212; and adapted from various sources First metro line by PPP in 1999: ridership is 25% of forecast at the beginning and up to 6% in 21; and 1% in 215 => financial struggle but better air Investment in transportation 1, 8 Car ownership continued to increase: travel to transit stations Viet Nam: Beginning stage of railway transport 6 4 2 BOT BT PPP Public Limited government budget A more important role of private sector but BOT projects are less likely - 211-215 216-22 BT form is the key pillar? Source: Ministry of Transportation, 216 5
HCMC Transportation System Massive transportation investment: Metro lines and elevated roads 8 projects (US$1.72bn) to ease traffic congestion in 217 TOD (Transit-Oriented Development): First metro line by 22: Ben Thanh-Suoi Tien, 2 km, 14 transits; 3 mins travel Housing, office, retail, parking within neighborhood from transits Appreciation of property value: China (1%), Hong Kong (32%), Thailand (1%) for residential Further stations, higher appreciation? 6
Ha Noi Transportation System Massive transportation investment: Line 1 total investment: US$93 million Line 2 total investment: US$1 billion, planning to start in 218 Line 2A total investment: US$55 million, basic infrastructure completed Line 3 total investment: US$1.7 billion, under construction Renovation and expansion of Ring road 1, 2, 3.5, 4, 5; Construction of flyovers Housing, office, retail, parking within neighborhood from transits Appreciation of property value: Further stations, higher appreciation? 7