EU Market Situation for Poultry Civil Dialogue Group 25 October 216
Thousand Tons F O R E C A S T 16 14 Experts EU production forecast on Poultry and Rabbit (Missing data (BE-EL-AT-RO-LT-SE) - No expert (BG-EE-LV-MT-SK) 12 1 8 6 4 2 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Total Poultry Broiler Turkey Duck Rabbit 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 % 215/214 % 215/216 % 217/216 Total Poultry 12 945 13 35 13 22 13 367 13 797 14 293 14 645 14 841 + 3.6% + 2.5% + 1.3% Broiler 9 876 9 932 1 173 1 445 1 729 11 295 11 546 11 747 + 5.3% + 2.2% + 1.7% Turkey 1 976 1 878 1 967 1 935 1 964 1 966 2 87 2 118 +.1% + 6.2% + 1.5% Duck 481 5 5 485 512 53 488 522-1.8% - 3.% + 7.1% Rabbit 329 328 281 26 246 243 213 28-1.3% - 12.4% - 2.1% EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
F O R E C A S T Experts EU production forecast of Poultry Meat 3 25 2 15 215 216 217 Qty in 1 tonnes 1 5 PL FR DE UK ES IT NL HU RO PT BE EL CZ DK LT IE FI AT BG SK SE HR SI CY LV EE MT PL FR DE UK ES IT NL HU RO PT BE EL CZ DK LT IE FI AT BG SK SE HR SI CY LV EE MT EU 216 2348. 182. 1788. 1665.6 1461. 1365. 1115. 615.7 362. 339. 25. 192. 174.5 155.8 137. 134.3 117.3 118.7 12. 86. 86. 85.1 61. 24.2 21. 15. 6. 14 645.2 16/15 + 6.1% - 2.5% -.7% + 2.5% + 1.8% + 4.4% + 5.5% + 8.6% + 2.7% + 1.5% +.% + 1.1% + 3.1% + 6.1% + 5.8% + 1.4% +.2% +.% +.% +.% +.% + 1.7% + 1.5% - 17.3% +.% +.% +.% + 2.5% 217 2 583. 1 85. 1 788. 1 698.5 1 43. 1 368. 1. 642.1 362. 339. 25. 192. 174.5 16.8 137. 134.3 126.2 118.7 12. 86. 86. 85.1 61. 24.7 21. 15. 6. 14 84.9 17/16 + 1.% + 1.6% +.% + 2.% - 2.1% +.2% - 1.3% + 4.3% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% + 3.2% +.% +.% + 7.6% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% + 2.1% +.% +.% +.% + 1.3% EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
F O R E C A S T Experts EU production forecast of Broiler Meat 25 2 15 215 216 217 Qty in 1 tonnes 1 5 PL UK DE ES FR NL IT HU RO PT BE EL DK CZ IE SE FI AT SK BG HR LT SI CY LV EE MT PL UK DE ES FR NL IT HU RO PT BE EL DK CZ IE SE FI AT SK BG HR LT SI CY LV EE MT EU 216 18. 1471. 128. 118. 1144. 198. 96. 39.4 35. 274. 246. 185. 155. 16. 12. 118. 11. 12.1 8.1 75. 7.4 58.5 56.5 24. 17. 13.8 7.4 11 546.2 16/15 + 3.% + 3.8% - 1.9% +.2% - 2.2% + 8.8% + 4.9% + 11.8% + 2.% + 1.9% +.% - 2.6% + 6.1% + 2.8% +.% + 4.4% +.4% +.% +.% +.% + 7.3% +.% +.9% - 31.4% +.% +.% +.% + 2.2% 217 1 98. 1 5.4 1 285. 1 17. 1 15. 1 5. 965. 49.9 35. 274. 246. 185. 16. 16. 12. 118. 118. 12.1 8.1 75. 7.4 58.5 56.5 24.5 17. 13.8 7.4 11 746.6 17/15 + 1.% + 2.% +.4% -.8% +.5% - 4.4% +.5% + 5.% +.% +.% +.% +.% + 3.2% +.% +.% +.% + 7.3% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% + 2.1% +.% +.% +.% + 1.7% EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
F O R E C A S T Experts EU production forecast of Turkey Meat 45 4 35 3 25 215 216 217 Qty in 1 tonnes 2 15 1 5 PL DE FR IT ES UK HU PT NL AT HR RO FI CZ SI SE IE BE EL CY SK DK BG LT LV EE MT PL DE FR IT ES UK HU PT NL AT HR RO FI CZ SI SE IE BE EL CY SK DK BG LT LV EE MT EU 216 376. 45. 37. 325. 194. 165.9 97.5 39. 28. 24.5 14.1 12. 7.3 6. 4.5 4. 6.5 3.3 2.5.2 1..5.1.... 2 86.9 16/15 +2.5% +6.% +5.7% +3.8% +3.7% -7.% +1.2% +1.8% +.% +.% +33.% +26.3% -2.7% +25.% -2.2% +8.1% -7.1% +.% +.% -83.2% +.% +.% +.% +6.2% 217 414. 4. 364. 325. 194. 169.4 1.4 39. 28. 24.5 14.1 12. 8.2 6. 4.5 4. 3.5 3.3 2.5.2 1..5.1.... 2 118.2 17/16 +1.1% -1.2% -1.6% +.% +.% +2.1% +3.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +12.3% +.% +.% +.% -46.2% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +1.5% EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
F O R E C A S T Experts EU production forecast of Duck Meat 25 2 15 215 216 217 Qty in 1 tonnes 1 5 FR HU DE PL UK BG NL PT CZ IT IE ES SK HR DK EL AT BE SI SE RO FI LT CY LV EE MT FR HU DE PL UK BG NL PT CZ IT IE ES SK HR DK EL AT BE SI SE RO FI LT CY LV EE MT EU 216 2. 9.8 5. 43.5 28.7 22. 17. 1. 8. 8. 6. 1.8.6.6.3.1.1.......... 487.5 16/15-13.4% +13.5% +.2% +11.5% -1.7% +.% +6.3% +2.% -3.6% -11.1% +11.1% +2.% +.% -5.5% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% -3.% 217 23. 94.6 5. 43.5 28.7 22. 18. 1. 8. 7.5 6. 2..6.5.3.1.1.......... 522. 17/16 +15.% +4.2% +.% +.% +.% +.% +5.9% +.% +.% -6.3% +.% +11.1% +.% -3.6% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +7.1% EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
F O R E C A S T Experts EU production forecast of Rabbit Meat 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 215 216 217 Qty in 1 tonnes 3. 2. 1.. FR ES IT BE CZ PT NL EL PL SK AT BG UK DE HU SE RO DK FI LT HR IE CY LV EE SI MT FR ES IT BE CZ PT NL EL PL SK AT BG UK DE HU SE RO DK FI LT HR IE CY LV EE SI MT EU 216 79. 53. 55. 1.. 6.2. 5.. 3.6.2............6.... 212.6 16/15-2.5% - 15.9% +.% +.% +.% + 1.7% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% - 12.4% 217 77.5 5. 55. 1.. 6.2. 5.. 3.6.2............6.... 28.1 17/16-1.9% - 5.7% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% - 1.6% - 2.1% EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
-14.6% -3.% -3.5% -.7% 7.1% 7.% 6.7% 6.3% 6.% 5.6% 5.6% 4.6% 4.4% 4.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 1.5%.2%.%.% 4.9% 14.3% 12.8% 12.5% 11.3% 1.9% 9.6% 16.5% P R O D U C T I O N Change in Poultry slaughter - July 215/ July 216 + 2% + 15% + 1% + 5% + % - 5% - 1% - 15% - 2% IE DK PL GR LT SI FI PT IT RO BG ES HU HR CY NL BE SE UK AT CZ DE EE LU LV MT FR SK EU EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
399458 515851 484764 532458 55186 54412 533349 55168 58757 336156 5398 528657 499226 454414 532898 52344 5285 524832 47753 555627 559944 573464 57162 555621 56443 54323 555122 536272 537439 59576 571133 5559 P R O D U C T I O N Placings of broiler chicks (1 pieces) 214 215 216 6 5 4 3 2 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
48 574.138 677.439 692.793 65.88 79.372 736.663 723.611 713.123 736.23 682.613 38483 78.4 72.21 527413 621343 595791 66478 731527 71485 69749 67526 7541 737489 745514 761172 766673 731956 746595 723284 74455 78327 714336 789226 756255 P R O D U C T I O N Forecast and Production of broiler (In tonnes) 214 215 216 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
$ / tonne C e r e a l P r i c e s World cereal prices ($/t) 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 Wheat - US SRW Gulf $ 185 Maize - FR Bordeaux $ 181 Wheat - FR Cl. 1 Rouen $ 181 Wheat - Black Sea Milling $ 174 Maize - US 3YC Gulf $ 164 Barley-FR Dlvd Rouen feed $ 148 EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
$/tonne C e r e a l P r i c e s Soyameal world quotations US$/tonne 55 5 Source: IGC 45 441. 35. 351. 4 35 3 25 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Brazil Paranagua US Gulf Argentina Up River EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
Prices / 1 kg P R I C E S E V O L U T I O N S I N C E EU W E E K P R I C E S 41 last WEEK last MONTH last YEAR BROILER 175.13 +.2% -.2% - 5.5% /1 kg carcase weight EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
/ 1 kg uro/ 1kg P R I C E S E U E V O L U T I O N B R O I L E R BROILER EU WEEKLY AVERAGE PRICE EVOLUTION 195 19 185 25 195 185 175 Evolution of the weekly EU average price for Broiler Latest price (Week 18) : 18.39 EUR/1 kg Avg 211-15 215 216 Evolution compared same period last year (Week 18) : - 3.6% 18 165 Avg 211-15 214 215 216 175 Source: MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 546/23) 175.13 17 EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
/ 1 kg W O R L D M A R K E T B R O I L E R P R I C E S EU US & BR 225 E U, U S A & B R A Z I L B R O I L E R P R I C E S 2 175 15 2 175 15 125 21, 185, 16, 135, 11, Broiler prices in EU, USA and Brazil ( EUR / 1kg ) Broiler prices in EU, USA & Brazil in uro/ 1kg 177,83 18.39 157.76 161,24 79,28 175.13 EU 131.98 US 125 1 1 85, 88.98 6, 75 14 15 16 15 14 16 broiler EU US broiler BR Broiler EU broiler uro Sources : EU = weighted average of MS prices - Broiler 65% US broiler uro US = weekly USDA prices - Fresh chicken grade A,Chicago BR = average of prices in main producing states - (Aveworld.com.br) BR Broiler uro 118.4 BR 75 14 15 16 EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
T R A D E E U I M P O R T S B r o i l e r P r o d u c t s Imports of Poultry meat from selected origins 212 213 214 215 Jan-Aug 16 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Aug 15 Brazil 57 574 66.7% 56 374 62.7% 57 355 6.% 498 869 57.2% 343 388 55.7% + 4% Thailand 197 962 23.2% 228 238 28.3% 251 185 29.7% 274 57 31.5% 2 982 32.6% + 6% Ukraine 276.% 19 958 2.4% 42 412 4.9% 3 65 4.9% + 2% Chile 42 192 4.9% 3 515 3.8% 25 815 3.1% 22 232 2.5% 22 199 3.6% + 72% China 15 698 1.8% 18 145 2.2% 19 761 2.3% 18 396 2.1% 11 193 1.8% - 6% Argentina 13 766 1.6% 1 783 1.3% 1 996 1.3% 8 529 1.% 4 335.7% - 27% Switzerland 3 812.4% 3 817.5% 4 37.5% 2 428.3% 1 558.3% - 9% Israel 6 75.7% 6 36.8% 2 411.3% 1 285.1% 1 98.2% + 17% Others 4 969.6% 2 82.3% 3 956.5% 3 697.4% 1 212.2% #N/A Extra-EU 855 48 87 274 845 743 872 356 616 29 % change - 5.6% + 4.8% + 3.1% + 6.3% EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
TONNES cw 1 EUR T R A D E E U I M P O R T S B r o i l e r EU Poultry meat Imports EU IMPORTS of Poultry Meat (TONNES cwe) EU IMPORTS of Poultry Meat (1 EUR) 57 362 579 294 616 29 7 6 1 472 227 1 591 73 1 462 616 1 8 1 6 1 4 164 943 188 951 2 982 5 4 59 141 692 345 634 683 1 2 1 3 8 351 61 329 68 343 388 2 1 726 98 728 384 659 584 6 4 2 Jan-Aug 14 Jan-Aug 15 Jan-Aug 16 Jan-Aug 14 Jan-Aug 15 Jan-Aug 16 Brazil Thailand Ukraine Chile China Other origins Brazil Thailand Ukraine Chile China Other origins EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
T R A D E E U E X P O R T S B r o i l e r P r o d u c t s Exports of Poultry Meat to Selected Destinations 212 213 214 215 Jan-Aug 16 EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Aug 15 South Africa 131 832 9.2% 158 548 11.1% 23 412 13.5% 213 413 14.3% 176 791 17.% + 34% Philippines 3 764 2.1% 35 696 2.5% 57 641 3.8% 11 245 6.8% 85 132 8.2% + 38% Benin 139 817 9.8% 139 247 9.7% 163 844 1.9% 136 61 9.2% 83 112 8.% - 2% Saudi Arabia 149 31 1.4% 154 787 1.8% 123 574 8.2% 142 496 9.6% 79 796 7.7% - 12% Hong Kong 125 831 8.8% 116 963 8.2% 136 177 9.1% 11 9 6.8% 79 354 7.6% + 42% Ukraine 13 427 7.2% 75 965 5.3% 8 84 5.3% 9 886 6.1% 65 233 6.3% + 34% Ghana 69 156 4.8% 75 252 5.3% 56 9 3.8% 68 799 4.6% 5 15 4.8% + 7% Vietnam 19 78 1.3% 13 564.9% 19 884 1.3% 27 219 1.8% 23 681 2.3% + 27% Malaysia 24 386 1.7% 28 748 2.% 27 142 1.8% 25 727 1.7% 22 715 2.2% + 23% Congo (Dem. Rep.) 34 231 2.4% 28 625 2.% 33 697 2.2% 36 61 2.4% 21 987 2.1% - 5% Russia 113 134 7.9% 95 2 6.7% 68 363 4.5% 1 235.1% 764.1% + 4% Other Destinations 49 16 34.3% 55 861 35.4% 533 265 35.5% 546 234 36.6% 351 39 33.8% Extra-EU 1 431 125 1 428 457 1 53 984 1 491 7 1 39 71 % change -.2% + 5.3% -.9% + 9.3%
TONNES cw 1 EUR T R A D E E U E X P O R T S B r o i l e r EU Poultry meat Export EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (TONNES cwe) 1 2 967 428 1 39 71 951 388 1 EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (1 EUR) 1 6 1 314 489 1 381 712 1 258 634 1 4 1 2 529 253 57 348 535 525 8 6 816 493 836 35 8 292 1 8 79 354 87 684 56 79 79 796 84 611 9 22 83 112 16 998 14 57 85 132 34 264 61 78 124 617 131 525 176 791 Jan-Aug 14 Jan-Aug 15 Jan-Aug 16 4 2 8 924 98 44 18 92 128 348 161 21 113 914 135 48 139 678 61 54 17 431 29 782 32 945 118 297 133 768 141 61 Jan-Aug 14 Jan-Aug 15 Jan-Aug 16 6 4 2 South Africa Philippines Benin Saudi Arabia Hong Kong Other destinations * South Africa Philippines Benin Saudi Arabia Hong Kong Other destinations * * countries trading less than 1 259 (' EUR) EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
in 1 Tonnes cwe T R A D E B A L A N C E EU Poultry meat Trade Balance 1 54 1 491 IMPORTS EXPORTS 1 431 1 431 1 428 1 6 1 4 1 275 1 265 1 17 1 11 1 116 1 153 1 114 1 63 1 46 997 997 982 1 16 1 4 1 2 1 794 858867 891 876 821 857 855 87 846 872 8 676 614 616 616 6 48 32 277 292 31 371 4 2 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Jan- Aug 16 EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
T R A D E B A L A N C E EU Poultry meat trade balance (in 1 euros) 2 24 55 2 245 142 IMPORTS 2 13 636 2 69 658 2 88 787 EXPORTS 2 19 262 2 55 444 2 335 573 2 121 792 in 1 Euros 2 5 1 852 975 2 1 462 616 1 5 1 258 634 1 5 211 212 213 214 215 Jan-Aug 16 EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
EUROPA SITE MARKETS Where to find data: http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets/index_en. htm Click on link: Poultry Click on link: Presentations and prices (righthand side under: in this chapter) Choose the item (link) you want Poultry dashboard http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/dashboards/poultry -meat-dashboard_en.pdf EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
Trade 1 16 1 265 842 97 821 887 855 87 511 1 431 1 428 846 54 1 54 1 491 872 Production World Trade 681 64 In 1 tonnes PW 1 413 1 187 1 44 1 122 393 In 1 tonnes PW 478 1 Tonnes 11 354 11 33 11 655 11 586 12 121 11 767 12 351 11 892 12 683 12 217 12 789 12 287 13 261 12 732 791 9 881 839 88 13 757 13 258 13 993 13 59 948 3 397 1 321 3 942 4 75 4 181 1 567 Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A World Quotations / 1 kg Placings Broiler 248 785 521 842 489 841 48 65 346 728 538 588 554 271 549 222 538 348 554 633 515 843 534 13 529 137 57 192 532 898 516 91 52 85 521 876 555 626 556 982 573 464 568 315 555 62 557 367 54 323 492 23 47 613 566 716 527 413 621 289 536 272 537 438 595 75 57 881 554 334 67 716 664 78 73 42 685 571 714 85 692 74 643 849 67 525 696 198 72 325 737 488 741 21 733 278 761 172 762 83 717 219 731 954 713 435 77 212 723 284 686 228 732 92 789 226 673 443 78 327 72 593 714 217 71 349 756 88 Prices / 1 kg Overall Poultry Meat DG AGRI DASHBOARD : POULTRY MEAT Last update: 3.9.216 E V O L U T I O N S I N C E EU W E E K P R I C E S 38 last WEEK last MONTH last YEAR 195 19 185 BROILER EU WEEKLY AVERAGE PRICE EVOLUTION Avg 211-15 215 216 Forecast and Production of poultry meat Turkey 15% Duck 5% BROILER 176.85 /1 kg carcase weight +.7% -.2% - 6.4% E U, U S A & B R A Z I L B R O I L E R P R I C E S EUR / USD EUR / BRL Placings of broiler chicks Forecast and Production of broiler ( 1 pieces ) ( Tonnes ) Please include the full poultry dashboard so as to show what data people can get when clicking on the individual figures 225 2 175 15 125 1 75 14 15 16 EU Main Producers ( 1 Tonnes product weight) PL 2 11 15% FR 1 718 13% UK 1 689 12% 176.85 EU 143.45 US 115.9 BR 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1. 214 215 216 2 16 12 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 214 215 216 EU Poultry meat production ( Forecasts 215 and 216 based on estimations ) 1% 11% 13% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 125% 1% 75% 18 175 17 6 5 4 3 2 1 5 4 3 World Main EXPORTERS ( 89% of Total Exports ) 176.85 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 214 215 216 214 : 12 798 215 : 12 93 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 1 5 Broiler 8% 215 - Consumption per capita in retail => 22.5 (kg) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 214 215 216 World Main IMPORTERS ( 69% of Total Imports ) 214 : 6 895 215 : 6 378 6 MSs = 71% of total production Other 4 37 29% IT 1 295 9% ES 1 443 11% DE 1 511 11% Year 215 Total = 13 74 (+3.8% over 214) 8 4 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215e 216f EU Production EU Consumption Self-sufficiency (in %) 5% 25% % 2 1 214 215 Brazil United States EU Hong Kong & China Thailand 1 5 214 215 Japan Hong Kong + China Mexico EU South Africa 1 5 1 25 1 75 5 25 EU Exports evolution ( 1 Tonnes carcase weight) 29 21 212 213 214 215 Jan-Jul 15 Jan-Jul 16 EU-28 EXPORTS ( Top Destinations in 215 / 16 ) POULTRY MEAT (Tonnes carcase weight) Period: Jan-Jul 215 216 % Chg EU-28 841 911 97 73 + 7.7 % South Africa 113 998 156 639 + 37.4 % Benin 1 32 77 777-22.2 % Philippines 55 9 73 169 + 32.8 % Hong Kong 49 933 69 552 + 39.3 % Saudi Arabia 8 384 69 528-13.5 % Ukraine 41 275 55 563 + 34.6 % Ghana 39 845 41 71 + 4.7 % Other 361 354 363 143 +.5 % 1 8 6 4 2 EU Imports evolution ( 1 Tonnes carcase weight) #REF! #REF! 212 213 214 215 Jan-Jul 15 Jan-Jul 16 EU-28 IMPORTS ( Main Partners in 215 / 16 ) POULTRY Meat (Tonnes carcase weight) Period: Jan-Jul 215 216 % Chg EU-28 51 881 54 69 + 5.7% Brazil 286 879 299 38 + 4.2 % Thailand 17 843 18 475 + 5.6 % Ukraine 21 21 24 52 + 14.4 % Chile 11 572 19 522 + 68.7 % China 1 475 9 8-6.4 % Argentina 5 212 3 674-29.5 % Switzerland 1 523 1 44-7.8 % Other 3 356 2 13-37.3 % Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat Sources : European Commission (DG ESTAT, DG AGRI), MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 1249/28 and Regulation (EC) 617/28), GTA, EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216