The European pigmeat sector "Single CMO" Management Committee 17 September 2009
Price in Euro/100 kg 175 165 155 145 135 125 Development of the Community average market price for pig carcases 115 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2006 2007 2008 2009 5 yr Avg (03-07) DG AGRI C4 17 September 2009 2
Percentual change in Pig prices August 2009 Difference in uro in % 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -1 year - 1 month -20% BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT LU HUMT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SV UK EU DG AGRI C4 17 September 2009 3
Development of the Community average market price for piglets 45 uro/ piece 40 35 30 25 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 3 37 4 4 4 4 52 2006 2007 2008 2009 5 yr avg (03-07) DG AGRI C4 17 September 2009 4
6.0% Slaughter: Quarterly change compared to the same period in the previous year (EU 25/27) 3.5% 1.0% -1.5% -4.0% 2005 2006 2007/25 2008/27 2009 Q1-3.7% 2.6% 5.4% 1.3% -3.3% Q2 2.0% 1.1% 2.9% -0.3% -1.5% Q3 0.5% 0.5% 4.2% -1.7% -1.5% Q4-0.4% 1.4% 4.7% -3.8% -1.3% Ann -0.5% 1.0% 4.3% -1.2% -1.9% DG AGRI C4 17 September 2009 5
Slaughter communications January - May 2009 as a result of regulation 1165/2008 compared to forecast of this slaughter, based on GIP forecast be bg cz dk de ee ie gr es fr it cy lv lt lu hu mt nl at pl pt ro si sk fi se uk EU 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% Slaughter without "home slaughter" Slaughter forecast based on GIP forecast. DG AGRI C4 17 September 2009 6
350.0 Comparisson betw e en Compoundfeed for Pigs and a Cereal-Feedmix Euro/ T (compound feed) Euro/ 100kg (pig carcase) 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 margin pig/ comp. Feed (4.4) Cereal-mix Compound feed Pig carcase Avg Margin 95-07 forecast price forecast forecast 50.0 0.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 DG AGRI C4 17 September 2009 7
800 TOEPFER weekly Cereal and Substitute prices 2008-2009 700 600 500 US$/T 400 300 200 week 36 of 2009-70% compared to week 1 of 2008 100 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 FREIGHT Panamax soja beans USA soja pellets ARG Citrus p. Palm pitkernels EU maïs in US$ C.G.F. DG AGRI C4 17 September 2009 8
Weekly average Pigprices 2006-2009 EU, Brazil and the US in Euro/ 100kg carcase 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meat US = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lb BR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br) weeks DG AGRI C4 17 September 2009 9 EU US Braz. avg
195 Pigprices in US and EU and forecasts EU forecast: Working group priceforecast pigmeat US Forecast: Feedstuffs 170 uro/ 100kg 145 120 95 EU US 70 05 06 07 08 09 DG AGRI C4 17 September 2009 10
Weekly exchange rate US dollar 2005-2009 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1 uro =...US$ 1.2 1.1 05 06 07 08 09 DG AGRI C4 17 September 2009 11 1
Trade in Pigmeat DG AGRI C4 17 September 2009 12
EU imports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes product weight) Origins 2005 2006 2007 2008 Jan-Jul 09 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Jul 08 Chile 4 994 23.0% 7 568 23.4% 12 347 28.6% 17 132 28.7% 10 988 35.4% + 23% Sw itzerland 4 933 22.7% 8 934 27.6% 10 476 24.2% 12 368 20.7% 9 377 30.2% + 42% USA 3 532 16.3% 5 380 16.6% 9 065 21.0% 21 547 36.1% 3 253 10.5% - 77% Croatia 2 189 10.1% 3 930 12.1% 2 863 6.6% 3 964 6.6% 1 982 6.4% - 8% Russia 280 1.3% 313 1.0% 280 0.6% 583 1.0% 1 256 4.1% +++ Serbia 716 3.3% 523 1.6% 1 217 2.8% 1 181 2.0% 262 0.8% - 73% Canada 79 0.4% 252 0.8% 2 660 6.2% 53 0.1% 78 0.3% + 95% Other 5 007 23.0% 5 467 16.9% 4 309 10.0% 2 895 4.8% 3 815 12.3% EXTRA EU15-25-27 21 730 32 368 43 217 59 724 31 010 % change + 49% + 34% + 38% - 11.3% DG AGRI C4 17 September 2009 13
EU imports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes product weight) 23 834 5 307 5 723 6 424 4 316 IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (Tonnes prod. weight) 34 950 2 319 6 606 8 936 13 939 31 010 9 377 10 988 3 253 Jan-Jul 07 Jan-Jul 08 Jan-Jul 09 40 000 35 000 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 Tonnes (product w eight) USA Chile Switzerland Croatia Serbia Other destinations IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (1000 EUR) 43 283 11 349 16 273 11 894 67 617 9 072 20 520 31 697 52 042 13 601 23 799 7 892 Jan-Jul 07 Jan-Jul 08 Jan-Jul 09 80 000 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 USA Chile Switzerland Croatia Serbia Other destinations 0 1,000 EUR DG AGRI C4 17 September 2009 14
Imports of selected PIG products 6 000 4 500 3 000 1 500 in Tonnes (product weight) Jan 06 2006 Jan 07 2007 Jan 08 2008 Jan 09 2009 Jan 10 0 FRESH FROZEN FAT OTHERS DG AGRI C4 17 September 2009 15
Destinations EU exports of selected PIG products: Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes product weight) 2005 2006 2007 2008 Jan-Jul 09 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Jul 08 Russia 485 437 25.0% 687 402 32.9% 647 057 33.9% 764 117 30.0% 394 603 29.8% - 15% Hong Kong 139 578 7.2% 138 554 6.6% 243 203 12.7% 454 242 17.8% 215 487 16.3% - 27% Japan 305 731 15.8% 249 380 11.9% 232 951 12.2% 236 120 9.3% 115 116 8.7% - 24% Ukraine 47 814 2.5% 9 789 0.5% 2 757 0.1% 188 006 7.4% 96 720 7.3% + 14% China 70 788 3.7% 53 785 2.6% 86 291 4.5% 146 138 5.7% 94 740 7.2% + 6% South Korea 117 671 6.1% 142 599 6.8% 137 443 7.2% 115 693 4.5% 59 555 4.5% - 21% Croatia 59 964 3.1% 56 785 2.7% 56 171 2.9% 63 706 2.5% 37 808 2.9% + 16% USA 72 843 3.8% 67 048 3.2% 66 527 3.5% 61 288 2.4% 32 598 2.5% - 15% Angola 34 356 1.8% 40 757 2.0% 48 637 2.5% 48 922 1.9% 27 955 2.1% + 13% Australia 28 126 1.5% 29 579 1.4% 34 583 1.8% 45 604 1.8% 26 861 2.0% - 0% Philippines 20 896 1.1% 23 321 1.1% 34 217 1.8% 40 911 1.6% 15 477 1.2% - 50% Belarus 48 506 2.5% 59 586 2.9% 10 529 0.6% 55 090 2.2% 10 413 0.8% - 64% Other 506 746 26.1% 530 778 25.4% 310 328 16.2% 331 069 13.0% 194 880 14.7% EXTRA EU15-25-27 1 938 455 2 089 363 1 910 695 2 550 904 1 322 212 % change + 8% - 9% + 34% - 14.1% DG AGRI C4 17 September 2009 16
EU exports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes product weight) 1 027 054 400 603 137 293 133 893 310 861 EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes prod. weight) 1 539 577 454 192 151 000 89 525 296 519 1 322 212 405 547 96 720 115 116 94 740 215 487 463 431 394 603 Jan-Jul 07 Jan-Jul 08 Jan-Jul 09 1 800 000 1 600 000 1 400 000 1 200 000 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 Russia Hong Kong China Japan Ukraine Other destinations 0 Tonnes (product w eight) 1 732 960 804 246 434 693 EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR) 2 409 996 872 763 462 185 253 826 2 136 667 832 837 402 848 204 270 372 698 646 050 513 749 3 000 000 2 500 000 2 000 000 1 500 000 1 000 000 500 000 Jan-Jul 07 Jan-Jul 08 Jan-Jul 09 Russia Hong Kong China Japan Ukraine Other destinations 0 1,000 EUR DG AGRI C4 17 September 2009 17
Exports of selected PIG products 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 in Tonnes (product weight) 50 000 Jan 06 2006 Jan 07 2007 Jan 08 2008 Jan 09 2009 Jan 10 0 FRESH FROZEN FAT LIVE ANIMALS OTHERS DG AGRI C4 17 September 2009 18
EU trade of PIG products IMPORTS EXPORTS 2 550 904 3 000 000 2 750 000 881 011 943 405 1 083 230 1 238 138 1 556 961 1 545 907 1 331 808 1 526 563 1 509 302 1 780 568 1 938 455 2 089 363 1 910 695 1 322 212 2 500 000 2 250 000 2 000 000 1 750 000 1 500 000 1 250 000 1 000 000 750 000 Tonnes product weight 500 000 46 135 59 720 71 937 51 641 63 800 55 918 56 077 54 499 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Jan- Jul 09 72 276 DG AGRI C4 17 September 2009 19 22 612 21 730 32 368 43 217 59 724 31 010 250 000 0
600 000 500 000 Cumulated quantity of weekly requests for Export licenses in the Pigmeat se ctor for Gatt year 2009-2010 400 000 Tonn 300 000 200 000 100 000 0 Cumulative quantity available cumulative attributio ns 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 DG AGRI C4 17 September 2009 20