Shifting Modes and Reducing Travel for Energy Conservation: Evidence from North America Asia Pacific Energy Research Center Annual Conference 26 February 2013 Dr. Craig Townsend, Concordia University Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Transport Accounts for a Lot of Energy Demand/GHG
Greene, D.L. (2004). "Transportation and Energy," in The Geography of Urban Transportation, S. Hanson and G. Giuliano, eds., The Guilford Press, New York. Passenger Transport Energy Use in Canada and the USA is high because: 1. High quantity of travel activity (trip length, frequency) 2. High share of travel by car (modal share) 3. Car fleet is proportionately heavy (pickups, SUVs, large cars) and uses internal combustion engines (intensity) 4. Carbon-based fuel (mainly gasoline) cheap and ubiquitous
Energy Consumption Per Vehicle Kilometer Travelled in the US Source: Chester & Horvath, 2009
Transport Energy Reduction Requires addressing at least one of 1. activity, 2. modes, 3. intensity, 4. fuels while holding the others constant Reducing intensity through vehicle improvements without restraints on demand will lead to increased activity and car share (Jevons paradox)
Vehicle Kilometers Travelled Per Capita (2006) Quantity of Driving Varies by City (reflecting differences in urban form. transport infrastructure, income, prices) 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Metropolitan Areas (CMAs and SMAs)
Annual Energy Use Associated with Low and High Density Development in Toronto Source: Norman, Maclean and Kennedy, 2006
Car Travel May Have Peaked in High Income Cities Source: Millard-Ball & Schipper, 2010 Source: US-DOT, 2012
Decline in licensed drivers among younger population Source: Sivak and Schoettle, 2012
Why is Driving Declining? "They've grown up quite differently than me and you," Mark Reuss, president of GM North America said of millennials in January. "I cut lawns when I was young, and then I saved my money and bought a car. I don't know if that happens anymore. "From 2001-09, the average annual number of vehicle miles traveled by people ages 16-34 decreased from 10,300 miles [16,576 km] to 7,900 miles [12,714 km] per capita -- a drop of 23%, according to a study by Frontier Group released in April. http://www.freep.com/article/20120721/business01/207210417/fewer-american-teens-getting-their-driver-s-licenses-u-m-study-finds
Total public transit seat km of service per capita Public Transit Boardings Per Capita 2. New York 3. Toronto 2. New York 4500 North America: Public Transit Supply and Demand, 2006 250 4000 3500 1. Montreal 200 3000 2500 4. Vancouver 5. Ottawa 150 2000 1500 100 1000 50 500 0 0
North America: Metropolitan Population and Per Capita Urban Rail Ridership, 2011/12 3. Mexico City 25,000,000 0.45 1. New York 20,000,000 Population Per capita urban rail ridership/day 0.4 0.35 2. Montreal 0.3 15,000,000 10,000,000 4. Toronto 5. Washington DC 6. Vancouver 0.25 0.2 0.15 5,000,000 0.1 0.05 0 0 Note: Data from American Public Transit Association (2012) and Wikipedia
Vancouver: Background
Proposed Metropolitan Freeways (1959) Source: Technical Committee for Metropolitan Highway Planning, 1959
Kilometers of Freeway / 10,000 people, 2011 2. Montreal 1. Toronto 3. Ottawa 5. New Orleans 5. New Orleans 4. Vancouver Annual Car Kilometers Traveled, 2006 High Income North America: Freeways and Driving 14.00 20000 12.00 18000 16000 10.00 14000 8.00 12000 10000 6.00 8000 4.00 6000 2.00 4000 2000 0.00 0 Note: Freeway lane/capita data from 2011/12, calculated by Townsend and Durning; Annual Car Vehicle Kilometres travelled for 2006, calculated by Kenworthy.
Proposed Transit System (1975) Source: Greater Vancouver Regional District, 1975
Steps Toward Reduced Travel and Modal Shift in Vancouver, 1970s Anti-freeway citizen protests followed by political change (late 1960s, early 1970s) Creation of agricultural land reserve by interventionist provincial government (1972) Livable Region Strategic Plan (first draft 1975) Protect green zone Build complete communities Achieve compact metropolitan region Increase transport choice
Residential Intensification, 1991-2001 Source: Taylor & Burchfield (2010) Growing Cities, Neptis Foundation: Toronto
Public Transport Intensification in Vancouver
Steps Toward Reduced Travel and Modal Shift in Vancouver, 1980s-present Three lines of elevated/underground light metro (1986-2009), another under construction (2012-), small number of semi-rapid bus lines, commuter rail line (1996), community shuttle buses (late 2000s) Creation of TransLink (regional transport authority, late 1990s) and marginal gas tax increases Encouragement of Transit-Oriented high and midrise development around stations, prohibition and discouragement of parking Rapid population growth, rises in congestion and gasoline prices (1980s and 2000s)
Rail Rapid Transit and Social Equity Challenges Source: Grube-Cavers & Patterson, 2012
Bangkok s mass rapid transit and road network, 2011 MRT (Mass Rapid Transit) Underground BTS (Bangkok Transit System) Elevated ARL (Airport Rail Link) Elevated 600 m radius from station platform ARL (Ban Tap Chang) to MRT (Phahonyothin) Cost 2.12 USD
Frequency Income of subway riders by income, Bangkok, 2011 140 120 116 100 99 80 60 59 40 20 0 9 11 9 2 300 USD: Monthly Income USD 150 USD: 32%-79% 16%-39% 600 USD: 8%-20% 900 USD: 5%-13%
Public Transit Boardings/capita Urban Density (person/hectare) 2. New York 250 High Income North America: Public Transit and Density (top 5 ranked), 2006 50.0 1. Montreal 45.0 200 2. Toronto 40.0 3. Vancouver 35.0 150 4. Ottawa 5. Los Angeles 30.0 25.0 100 20.0 15.0 50 10.0 5.0 0 0.0 Note: Canadian densities = median census tract density for 2011 calculated by Townsend using Statistics Canada 2011 Census d; US densities are 2005/6 metropolitan averages calculated by Kenworthy (2012)
Transport, Energy Use, and Urban Form are Linked Megajoules per capita Figure 3.7: Passenger vehicle energy use per capita versus the urban city 100 000 density in people per hectare (data year = 1995) 90 000 80 000 Houston 70 000 60 000 Denver San Francisco 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 Phoenix Los Angeles Washington Chicago New York Sydney Copenhagen Toronto Perth Melbourne Brisbane Hamburg Frankfurt Zurich Munich Brussels London Vienna Mexico City North America Australia Europe Asia 10 000 Paris Berlin Amsterdam Kuala Lumpur Singapore Tokyo Beijing Guangzhou Bangkok Jakarta Manila Shanghai Taipei Seoul Hong Kong Ho Chi Minh City 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Urban Density ppl/ha Note: The urban city statistical indicators shown here were collected on a common base year of 1995. Source: Adapted from IUPT/ISTP (1995)