THE BALTIC SEA POWER RING CONNECTED: A GLANCE AT NORDBALT AND LITPOL LINK TODAY AND OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW Daivis Virbickas Litgrid CEO 24 November 2015
90 Electricity consumption reflects the level of economy and GDP 80 LU GDP per capita at CMP, keur/cap 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 DK SE NL AT IE FI BE UK DE FR EU-28 IT CY ES LT MT LV EL EE SI PT HU CZ HR SK RO PL BG 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 Electricity consumed per capita, kwh/cap Source: European Commission 2013
Power consumption in Europe is growing in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia The forecasts indicate the Baltic economies will grow Are we ready? Electricity consumption dynamics in Europe 2014. Source: ENTSO-E 4,2 3,2 3,0 2,4 2,3 2,4 2,8 2,7 1,6 2,1 1,5 1,8 1,8 2,2 2,7 3,8 3,2 3,4 2013 2014 2015 HI 2015 (forecast) 2016 (forecast) 2017 (forecast) Lithuania Latvia Estonia GDP growth. Source: SEB
BALTIC AND NEIGHBOURING POWER MARKETS STRUCTURE
Nordic electricity market From 2016 the new 700 MW HVDC connection will increase the availability of Nordic market to the Baltic by 70% - this will become a common Nordic-Baltic market
Polish electricity market Carbon price is the key driver of the Polish energy sector development From 2016 the Polish market will be available to the Baltic via new up to 500 MW power interconnector
Belarussian electricity market State-controlled vertically integrated monopoly run by Belenergo Transit only from Russia to the Baltic market, no electricity export from Belenergo Total import from Russia to Baltic via Belarus 1,7 TWh in 2014
Russian electricity wholesale market UES United Energy System Nordic and Baltic countries are directly influenced by North- West and Centre regions, dominated by fossil (58%) and nuclear (38%) power generation and counting for 1/3 of total Russian UES capacity, production and consumption
Russian electricity wholesale market EUR/MWh 60 40 20 0 Avrg. electricity price 2014 Avrg. estimated Capacity fee 2014 Peak hours Off-peak The Baltic-Russian cross-border capacities allocation is managed by Nord Pool Spot using the capacity optimization method Inter RAO UES is the only market license holder. No changes foreseen
Impact of new interconnections Lithuania will become a hub for energy flows among the Nordic, Baltic, West European and Russian electricity markets - 7 market products available to traders from Vilnius
The Baltic becomes integral part of the Nordic and CEE electricity market Large markets of Sweden and Poland will dominate Lower wholesale market prices in Sweden may carry for 4-5 years Electricity strategies of Sweden and Poland will influence the future Lithuanian energy sector
OPPORTUNITIES FOR LOCAL BUSINESS AND HOUSEHOLDS
Grid projects ensure decrease in tariff Public service obligations, 15 % Commodity price and supply, 50 % Transmission, 4 % Distribution, 30% System services, 1% Major part of the cost commodity and distribution 7 percent drop in commodity retail price 66 million savings over a year Transmission comprises under 5% of the tariff Electricity price for industrial consumers, 2015
Impact of new interconnections 36.7 36.3 PTRlimited 19.8 23.1 28.7 29.6 31.8 24.5 36.7 36.3 36.7 36.3 28.6 38.3 Nasdaq OMX and Platts Forward Assessments indicate positive impact on consumer prices already today Nasdaq OMX Commodities 2015 11 13
Services and other 31% Households consumption 2,7 TWh, 27% Wholesale and regulated power prices 9,8 TWh Transport 1% Agriculture 2% 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 ct/kwh Industry 38% Industry, services and other business in Lithuania consumed 7,2 TWh of electricity in 2014, total cost 790 million Electricity cost for households - 340 million 0.8 ct/kwh 0.7 ct/kwh 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Regulated purchase price Wholesale price Financial market 2015 *11 month average
Opportunities for smart users on the market Regulated price of commodity leaves open opportunity not to use it 24 million savings over a year could be shared by households in Lithuania if purchased from independent suppliers Household consumers market in Europe Electricity prices for households Commodity price % in the tariff # of retailers # of major retailers Switching rate Norway market 40% 30 3 15% Sweden market 34% 100 3 10% Finland market 44% 28 3 8% Estonia market 38% 42 1 0% Latvia market 37% 6 2 0/15% Lithuania regulated 39% 19 5 0% Poland regulated 42% 82 5 1% Denmark market 16% 25 6% Germany market 28% ~1000 4 12% Unregulated retail market Regulated retail market Source: ACER_Market_Monitoring_Report_2014
Both industrial and domestic users are in the position to benefit from the new market opportunities ~ 90 million can be saved in the first year with minimum risk Market education to the domestic consumers is the opportunity for independent retailers
LITPOL LINK AND NORDBALT ARE IN PLACE. WHAT TO EXPECT NOW?
Deeper electricity market integration 4,39 million saved in balancing by the TSOs over 9 months of 2015 2015 2015 2017 Baltic balancing netting 2018 Common Baltic balancing market million 5 LT 4,5 LV 4 EE 3,5 3 Common 2,5 Baltic and Nordic balancing market 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ancing market plementation
Full-fledged European integration Grids interconnected Day-ahead markets Intra-day markets Balancing market Financial markets Capacity allocation and management EU Network Codes Synchronous operations with Continental European network
Today: most intense moment of links projects implementation Energizing of the LitPol Link 19 November System tests of NordBalt this week Exceptional feature of NordBalt energizing the power system after black-start Trial operations as announced on Nord Pool Spot Planned and emergency disconnections happen: an average of 9,8 disconnections of a cable in a year* Source: ENTSO-E statistics of 14 HVDC cables functioning in Nordic region in 2013
Tomorrow: new era in electricity sector Better integration will lead to more synergies in the energy strategies of the region s countries The Swedish spot prices will remain lower for a few years and will dominate Discussions regarding NordBalt 2 will start soon The project of synchronizing the power systems with continental Europe may help solve 3 rd countries market integration issues for all Europe
Empowering the growth of Lithuania