Hydrogen & Fuel cells From current reality to 2025 and beyond Future Powertrain Conference Adam Chase, Director 1 st March 2017 Strategy Energy Sustainability
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Today Drivers of change Energy system transition A plan for hydrogen
Not just an esoteric debate Moody's is increasing its focus on the risks related to climate change for auto manufacturers globally. While we do not anticipate any immediate rating changes, we are monitoring rising risks in this sector for possible future implications
Transport is now the largest GHG emitting sector in the UK, so is in the spotlight Source: Committee on Climate Change Oct.2016 UK Climate action following the Paris Agreement https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/uk-climate-action-following-the-paris-agreement-committee-on- Climate-Change-October-2016.pdf 5
Road transport, especially LDV will have to make strong CO2 reductions ZEV capable LDV uptake according to CCC 95gCO 2 /km Source: SMMT 2-3 cycle plans Adoption 6
So we know where we are and where we would like to get to. The question is HOW? Strategy Energy Sustainability
Automotive changes must be seen in the context of the energy system 1983 2017 2050 Energy system perspective Automotive perspective 34 years 33 years 8
Transport energy transition is unlikely to be simple UK Automotive Council Energy & Fuels Consensus Roadmap 9
Conventional, sector specific approach to energy transition could miss implications of system wide change Conventional thinking Work through GHG reduction challenges in order of increasing difficulty: 1. Electricity 2. Heat 3. Industry 4. Transport System thinking Least cost optimised pathways that recognise key features of low carbon energy: Inflexible demand for energy services Long life assets Technology uncertainty Lock-in and path dependency marksremarksdotorg.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/systems-thinking.jpg 10
From a system wide perspective, hydrogen can play a strong role Strategy Energy Sustainability
APPLICATIONS PRODUCTION, DISTRIBUTION AND SERVICES The 2016 UK Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Roadmap shows how hydrogen could fit across the energy system Roadmap Large stationary power & CHP Stationary FC systems with portable fuels Bulk centralised H 2 production Small stationary power & CHP Portable FCs H 2 use in industry and for liquid fuel production Hydrogen pipeline networks and use in domestic and commercial heat Non-road transport Road transport H 2 production and distribution for transport Services to energy networks Hydrogen end-use Hydrogen supply UK Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Roadmap: http://bit.ly/2dvjbu9 12
Roadmap and which steps are necessary to 2025 and beyond Benefits to assess Potential for low carbon heating Avoiding grid upgrading especially the costs of electricity to meet peak heating Synergies with renewable electricity Customer acceptance compared with heat pumps, district heating etc Synergies with hydrogen use in transport & industry 13
Hydrogen could be a key component of the future transport fuel mix Roadmap Air quality - no pollution when used in fuel cells and very low emissions in an ICE Low carbon today and zero carbon in the future wide range of options to produce hydrogen with very low emissions No fundamental changes in vehicle operation once a nationwide network is established, no operational compromise compared with current ranges and refuelling times An option for larger vehicles very few options for zero or ultra-low emission driving for trucks, buses, marine and rail Affordable (at scale) - vehicles can be offered with the same ownership cost or with a slight ownership cost premium once vehicles can be produced at scale (100,000s of vehicle per year for passenger cars). 14
The roadmap includes specific UK actions for enabling fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen refuelling UK market development UK actions Roadmap 2016-2020 2020-2025 2025 onwards ~30-65 HRS deployed by 2020 UK Fleet of 50-100 buses UK Fleet of ~500s FC REEV and microcars > 150 HRS deployed by 2025 UK Fleet of several 100s buses UK Fleet of several 1,000s FC REEV and microcars Several 10s to 100s stations per annum > 100 FC buses per annum > 1,000 FC REEV and microcar per annum UK Fleet of ~100 OEM FCEVs UK Fleet of several 10,000s OEM FCEVs > 10,000 FCEVs per annum Programme to develop UK <20kW FC systems & vehicles Programme to support the development of heavy vehicles using hydrogen Dedicated rollout programme for UK-produced vehicles FC RE-EVs, minicars, hydrogen buses and trucks Beginning of commercialisation of UK FC system and vehicle solutions for <20kW and heavy duty applications Coordinated procurement activities for fleet vehicles Targeted support for early fleet roll-out (<1,000 vehicles via EU, regional and national fleet funds) Secure policy continuity for FC in transport applications (across national and local governments); coordination with EU efforts on clean mobility Resolve any outstanding HRS permitting, vehicle certification and other regulatory constraints to reduce barriers to larger-scale deployments Inclusion of hydrogen vehicles in plug-in grant type scheme FC market reaches a critical size allowing unsubsidised deployments 15
Two main aims: Ensuring UK-produced hydrogen vehicles and preparing the UK market Roadmap Ensuring UK-produced hydrogen vehicles Target vehicles with an attractive customer offer, relatively small production volume (100s-1,000s units/year) which play to the UK s manufacturing strength Encourage UK-based OEMs in the truck, large van and bus sector to work with partners to develop hydrogen-fuelled options Support UK companies developing vehicles using small fuel cell stacks (as rangeextenders or in lightweight small cars) Preparing the market for the introduction of hydrogen-fuelled vehicles Expansion of the hydrogen refuelling network regional clusters and work with fleets Support for vehicle deployment Plug in grant scheme, procurement, EU and regional funding 16
Current UK activities are consistent with the Roadmap Shell hydrogen refuelling station at Cobham services on the M25, opened February 2017. Source: ITM Power Rasa fuel cell car. Source: Riversimple Science & Technology Committee hydrogen inquiry, announced Feb 2017 17
In summary An energy system transition is coming Vehicle fuels and powertrains should be seen as part of the energy system This transition may be faster, deeper and directionally different to currently envisaged pathways The best solution for the energy system might not be best for individual sectors Some energy system pathways feature widespread hydrogen uptake, which would affect transport The UK Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Roadmap sets a path for UK to 2025 Near term will see several options explored at small scale. These could scale up if successful 18
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