TBARTA USF to Wesley Chapel Express Bus Service Operating Plan Draft 3/25/2014 March 2014
Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction... 1 2.0 Study Area... 1 3.0 Existing Available Service... 3 4.0 Proposed Service... 3 5.0 Forecasted Ridership... 4 6.0 Operating Characteristics... 5 6.1 Span and Frequency of Service... 5 6.2 Vehicle Type and Capacity... 5 6.3 Vehicle Storage and Maintenance Facilities... 6 6.4 Vehicle Performance... 6 6.5 Station Dwell Times... 6 6.6 Average Intersection Delay... 7 6.7 Run Time Estimates... 7 6.8 Layovers / Deadheading... 7 6.9 Cycle Times... 7 6.10 Vehicle Requirements... 7 6.11 Operating Summary... 7 7.0 Operations and Maintenance Cost Estimates... 8 7.1 Cost Model Methodology and Inputs... 8 7.2 Estimated O&M Costs... 10 7.3 Capital Cost Estimates... 10 8.0 Findings... 13 9.0 Next Steps... 13 Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority Page i
List of Figures Figure 1: USF - Wesley Chapel Express Bus Study Area... 2 Figure 2: Typical 40' BRT Vehicle... 6 List of Tables Table 1: Projected Corridor Ridership Summary... 4 Table 2: Projected Daily Station Boardings and Alightings... 4 Table 3: Proposed Span of Service... 5 Table 4: Summary of Run Time Estimates... 7 Table 5: Summary of Proposed Operating Service Characteristics... 8 Table 6: HART Bus FY 2012 Expense Allocations and Unit Costs... 9 Table 7: Proposed USF-Wesley Chapel Express Bus O&M Cost Estimates... 10 Table 8: Proposed USF-Wesley Chapel Express Bus $2012 Unit Capital Costs... 11 Table 9: USF-Wesley Chapel Express Bus Estimated Capital Costs... 12 Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority Page ii
Initial Alternatives 1.0 INTRODUCTION The Bruce B. Downs Boulevard (BBD) corridor has been evaluated in the past to consider various multimodal transit improvements including bus rapid transit (BRT) and light rail transit (LRT) alternatives. The existing right-of-way (ROW) has provisions to allow for future construction of a BRT or LRT system within the corridor envelope. The Tampa Bay region and this corridor, in particular, are expected to experience tremendous growth in the coming years, with population and employment expected to almost double along the corridor by 2035. This Draft Operating Plan Report has been developed to identify and evaluate future express bus service operations along Bruce B. Downs Boulevard. Express bus service provides premium transit with significantly lower costs than BRT or LRT. The plan assumes an opening year of 2020 with the horizon year of 2035. 2.0 STUDY AREA The study area for proposed express bus service includes the Bruce B. Downs Boulevard corridor between the University of South Florida (USF) and the Wesley Chapel area. This corridor is located to the north of downtown Tampa and is focused around some of the fastest-growing residential and commercial areas within the Tampa Bay region. The southern end of the BBD corridor is located adjacent to major regional employers including USF, James A. Haley Veteran s Hospital, Florida Hospital and Moffitt Cancer Center. As the corridor runs north and northeast, it serves the residential and commercial areas of Tampa Palms and New Tampa. Further north, the corridor crosses I-75 and serves the Hunters Green, Pebble Creek and Wesley Chapel areas which contain large residential areas located off Bruce B. Downs Boulevard, with commercial uses directly adjacent to the boulevard. To the north is Wiregrass, an area which is slated for significant mixed-use commercial, institutional and residential development in the near future. North of Wiregrass, Bruce B. Downs Boulevard terminates at S.R. 54 adjacent to its interchange with I-75. The Study Area continues along I-75 to S.R. 52, the next interchange to the north. Significant future residential and commercial development is also anticipated in this area and the express bus is anticipated to serve this northern end of the corridor. A map of the USF-Wesley Chapel study area is shown in Figure 1. Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority Page 1
Figure 1: USF - Wesley Chapel Express Bus Study Area Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority Page 2
3.0 EXISTING AVAILABLE SERVICE Existing transit service along Bruce B. Downs Boulevard is very limited. The southern terminus of the corridor, near Fletcher Avenue, is served by several local Hillsborough Area Regional Transit (HART) routes in and around the USF area and the University Area Transfer Center (UATC) throughout the day. The USF-operated Bullrunner service also operates throughout the campus and adjacent areas for students and staff. Elsewhere along the corridor, the HART Commuter Express Route 51X uses Bruce B. Downs Boulevard for part of its p.m. route northbound from downtown Tampa to park and ride facilities at Lowe s in Hillsborough County and at two church lots in Pasco County. This express bus service has two trips northbound along Bruce B. Downs Boulevard in the p.m. peak period. During the a.m. peak period, the bus uses I-75. 4.0 PROPOSED SERVICE The proposed express route bus service is expected to operate along Bruce B. Downs Boulevard between the USF area and the I-75/S.R. 52 interchange. The route s southern terminus would be at the existing UATC located off Livingston Avenue, across from the Veteran s Hospital. The northern terminus would be at the I-75/S.R. 52 interchange in Pasco County. There are five proposed stops along the route. The proposed stops will feature park and ride type facilities with car parking and drop-off areas, passenger shelters, signage, lighting, bicycle facilities, pedestrian access (sidewalks and crosswalks), and ticket vending machines (TVMs). These stops are: UATC Lowe s Park and Ride (currently used by HART Route 51X) Bruce B. Downs Boulevard and Cross Creek Boulevard Bruce B. Downs Boulevard and Wiregrass I-75 at S.R. 52 The stops will be park and ride facilities where passengers can drive, walk or bike to wait for the express bus. There are also planned circulator bus services that will connect the stops with adjacent residential areas. To mitigate long bus travel times during the congested peak hours, it is anticipated that transit signal priority (TSP) will be installed at signalized intersections along the Bruce B. Downs Boulevard corridor. TSP provides additional green time at a signal when a bus is approaching to enable more efficient bus operations and time savings for bus riders. There are currently 27 signalized intersections along the corridor which may be considered for TSP. Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority Page 3
5.0 FORECASTED RIDERSHIP Ridership forecasts were developed to determine the potential market for future bus service along the Bruce B. Downs Boulevard corridor. The Tampa Bay Regional Transit Model (TBRTM) was used to estimate ridership along the corridor. The ridership numbers are based on a horizon year of 2035 and an opening year of 2020. Existing and future socioeconomic data input into the TBRTM was used to estimate growth along the Bruce B. Downs Boulevard corridor and project ridership along the proposed express bus route. The ridership numbers are presented below with and without TSP. The ridership model also assumes that circulator bus services are also in operation at each stop. Total ridership, including peak and off-peak travel, is shown below in Table 1. Table 1: Projected Corridor Ridership Summary Peak Period Off-peak Total Daily Year/Alternative Ridership Ridership Ridership 2020 with TSP 873 640 1,513 2020 without TSP 826 640 1,466 2035 with TSP 1,588 1,164 2,752 2035 without TSP 1,501 1,163 2,664 Source: RS&H The forecasted ridership by boardings and alightings at each station is shown below in Table 2. Station UATC Lowes Park and Ride Cross Creek Wiregrass I-75 at S.R. 52 Table 2: Projected Daily Station Boardings and Alightings 2020 without 2035 with 2020 with TSP TSP TSP 2035 without TSP Boardings 825 822 1,500 1,495 Alightings 293 257 533 468 Boardings 196 186 357 339 Alightings 354 345 643 628 Boardings 138 127 251 231 Alightings 232 233 421 423 Boardings 194 182 353 330 Alightings 492 490 894 891 Boardings 160 148 291 269 Alightings 141 140 257 255 (1) Total boardings and alightings may not be equal due to rounding. (2) Source: RS&H Ridership analysis, relative to the proposed operating plan, is discussed in more detail in the Findings section. Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority Page 4
6.0 OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS The express bus is proposed to operate in a similar capacity to HART s recently implemented MetroRapid service, which currently provides a limited stop bus operation along Nebraska and Fletcher Avenues. Specific assumptions have been made in developing this Operating Plan. These assumptions and the methodologies are detailed in this section. 6.1 SPAN AND FREQUENCY OF SERVICE The span and frequency of service for the Bruce B. Downs Boulevard corridor was developed in a similar comparison to the current HART MetroRapid schedule, with Monday-Friday operation from 5:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. This Operating Plan assumes 15-minute peak hour service and 30-minute off-peak service. As demand increases and the service matures, expanded hours, increased frequency and possible weekend service may be considered. The assumed span and frequency of service are shown in Table 3. Table 3: Proposed Span of Service Day of Week Time Period Service Frequency Hours Total Hours Weekdays Early A.M. Off-peak Period 30 minutes 5:00 a.m. 6:00 a.m. A.M. Peak Period 15 minutes 6:00 a.m. 9:00 a.m. Mid-day Off-peak Period 30 minutes 9:00 a.m. 3:00 p.m. P.M. Peak Period 15 minutes 3:00 p.m. 6:00 p.m. 15.0 Saturdays, Sundays & Holidays Evening Off-peak Period No Service 30 minutes 6:00 p.m. 8:00 p.m. It is assumed that the express bus service will not operate on Saturdays, Sundays and holidays, similar to the current Commuter Express operations. HART currently observes 10 holidays during the year, meaning that there are 251 weekdays in a typical year where the proposed service will operate. The proposed circulator buses, while not analyzed in this operating plan, should be designed in a way that minimizes wait time to transfer between local and express buses. 6.2 VEHICLE TYPE AND CAPACITY A 40 low floor vehicle similar to the Gillig BRT model used on the existing HART Commuter Express and MetroRapid services is anticipated for use on the Bruce B. Downs Boulevard corridor. This vehicle provides low floor boarding for more efficient access and egress, and incorporates modern interior and exterior design elements and enhanced passenger comfort. These elements help to brand the vehicle as part of a premium express bus service and distinguish it from a standard local fixed-route bus, thereby potentially attracting more riders to use the service. Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority Page 5
Figure 2: Typical 40' BRT Vehicle The 40 BRT model can typically accommodate 40 seated passengers, with room for up to 20 standing passengers if necessary. However, loading standards for express bus service typically do not exceed 100 percent for peak service, therefore no standees are anticipated. 6.3 VEHICLE STORAGE AND MAINTENANCE FACILITIES The requirement for additional storage and maintenance facilities is not currently anticipated. It is assumed the additional buses will be stored and maintained at existing HART facilities in Tampa. The new vehicles are anticipated to be similar to vehicles in HART s current fleet. Therefore, additional new maintenance facilities and technologies are not currently assumed. However, as existing HART service and other local and regional services are planned, the collective impacts may require a review of available storage and maintenance facilities. 6.4 VEHICLE PERFORMANCE Express bus vehicles are assumed to have a normal acceleration rate of about 2.0 miles per hour per second (mphps) from 0 and 30 miles per hour (mph), with an average acceleration rate of 0.75 mphps from 0-65 mph. Normal service braking is assumed to be a constant 2.0 mphps from 65 mph to 0 mph. Vehicles along this corridor are assumed to have a maximum speed of 55 mph. Many sections of the corridor will have lower speeds based on posted speed limits and traffic signals, which will affect the maximum speed achieved. 6.5 STATION DWELL TIMES Dwell times at stations will vary by station. The proposed stations are anticipated to be located off Bruce B. Downs Boulevard in park and ride areas, either in dedicated areas of existing parking lots or new park and ride facilities. Based on the location of the existing park and ride station at Lowe s, there will be considerable dwell time and time for the bus to exit and enter Bruce B. Downs Boulevard. It is assumed that station access, egress and dwell time will be approximately 4 minutes per station. Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority Page 6
6.6 AVERAGE INTERSECTION DELAY There are 27 signalized intersections along Bruce B. Downs Boulevard which are assumed to have TSP installed. The implementation of TSP along this corridor has the potential to reduce overall bus travel times by up to 15-20 percent; however, a more conservative 10 percent savings was assumed since the TSP system has not yet been designed. Queue jump lanes are not currently anticipated for construction. 6.7 RUN TIME ESTIMATES Estimated run times were calculated based on recent travel times collected along the Bruce B. Downs Boulevard corridor. The run times were conducted during the late A.M. and mid-day peak periods to determine the bus travel time and average speeds along the corridor. The existing, observed run times were factored by 10 percent to account for travel conditions in future years. A summary of estimated run times, including station dwell times, is shown below. Stops Non-stop Table 4: Summary of Run Time Estimates Distance (miles) Run Time (minutes) Average Speed (mph) 40.5 29.9 All Stops without TSP 20.2 52.5 23.1 All Stops with TSP 47.2 25.7 6.8 LAYOVERS / DEADHEADING The operations plan should typically provide a layover time for the end of each route. This layover time provides time for drivers to take required breaks and allow for schedule recovery if a bus is running late. Layover times are typically 10-15 percent of the one-way run time at each end station. 6.9 CYCLE TIMES Cycle times are used to determine the vehicle requirements. They are the sum of running time, dwell times, intersection delays and layover times. The cycle times are then divided by the proposed headways to determine the number of vehicles required for the route. 6.10 VEHICLE REQUIREMENTS This express bus operating plan would require 8 vehicles during peak periods and 4 vehicles during offpeak periods. The total fleet requirement is 10 vehicles, with 2 spares, assuming a minimum 20 percent maintenance spare ratio. 6.11 OPERATING SUMMARY Operating requirements were determined from proposed service frequencies, vehicle specifications, and estimated travel times. Additional operating assumptions are shown below. These assumptions are utilized to determine operating requirements which drive the estimated annual operating and maintenance costs. Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority Page 7
Run Time (min) Distance (miles) Table 5: Summary of Proposed Operating Service Characteristics Day ---Headway--- ----Annual Revenue---- Lay Cycle ---Buses--- Peak Off-Peak Veh-Miles Veh-Hours Over Time Peak Off-Pk 47.2 20.20 Weekdays 15.0 243,400 12,050 9.7 113.9 8 30.0 182,500 9,040 9.7 113.9 4 Saturdays n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Sundays n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a ESTIMATED TOTALS: 21,090 annual revenue vehicle-hours 425,900 annual revenue vehicle-miles PEAK VEHICLE REQUIREMENT: 8 vehicles FLEET VEHICLE REQUIREMENT: 10 vehicles Notes: (1) Annual revenue bus-miles and bus-hours include layover time, but do not include report and deadhead time. (2) Annual operating requirements based on 251 weekdays per year, with no weekend or holiday service. (3) Operating hours are about 05:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. Monday - Friday. (4) Fleet vehicle estimate based on 20% peak-to-fleet ratio. 7.0 OPERATIONS AND MAINTENANCE COST ESTIMATES Operations and maintenance (O&M) estimates were developed based on HART s reported financial and operating data for fiscal year 2012 using the following cost model structure and required inputs. 7.1 COST MODEL METHODOLOGY AND INPUTS Operating costs were derived from Fiscal Year (FY) 2012 National Database (NTD) reports and were allocated to four variables: garages, annual revenue bus-hours, annual revenue bus-miles, and peak buses. The following equation summarizes the fully-allocated cost model used to estimate annual O&M costs for the study alternatives: Estimated Annual O&M Cost = Garages Unit Cost x Projected Garages + Bus-Hours Unit Cost x Projected Bus-Hours + Bus-Miles Unit Cost x Projected Bus-Miles + Peak Bus Unit Cost x Projected Peak Buses Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority Page 8
Where: Garages: number of bus storage and maintenance garages. Annual Revenue Bus-Hours: Total hours of revenue service operated by all buses in one year. Annual Revenue Bus-Miles: Total miles of revenue service operated by all buses in one year. Peak Buses: The maximum number of passenger vehicles scheduled in service at the same time. FY 2012 expenses and units of service for each variable are presented in Table 6. Operating expenses assigned to each variable were summed and divided by FY 2012 units of service to derive unit costs. The unit costs derived from the fully allocated model were applied to the projected operating statistics generated for the proposed express bus service to estimate total O&M costs. FY 2012 dollars were adjusted to opening year 2020 dollars at a 3.0 percent annual inflation rate. Table 6: HART Bus FY 2012 Expense Allocations and Unit Costs FULL ALLOCATION EXPENSE OBJECT Bus-Hrs Bus-Miles Garages Peak Buses 501.01 Operators Salaries/Wages $12,338,991 $0 $0 $0 501.02 Other Salaries/Wages $1,788,688 $3,284,292 $1,662,978 $5,199,992 502.00 Fringe Benefits $6,310,866 $1,523,590 $786,477 $2,668,239 503.00 Services $277,865 $451,178 $895,189 $4,009,187 504.01 Fuel & Lubricants $0 $6,898,852 $0 $0 504.02 Tires & Tubes $0 $498,234 $0 $0 504.03 Other Materials & Supplies $0 $1,892,519 $422,067 $15,137 505.00 Utilities $0 $0 $563,083 $0 506.00 Casualty/Liability $0 $1,437,971 $0 $0 507.00 Taxes $0 $0 $0 $626,675 508.00 Purchased Transportation $0 $0 $0 $0 509.00 Miscellaneous Expenses $263,351 $21,639 $12,701 $1,077,966 510.00 Expense Transfers $0 $0 $0 $0 Total Operating Expenses: $20,979,761 $16,008,275 $4,342,495 $13,597,196 FY 2012 Units of Service 586,224 7,477,638 2 153 Unit Cost (operating expenses only) $35.79 $2.14 $2,171,248 $88,871 Variables: 1. Garages = number of bus storage and maintenance garages (2012 NTD) 2. Hours = actual annual revenue bus-hours (NTD 2012) 3. Miles = actual annual revenue bus-miles (NTD 2012) 4. Buses = maximum buses operated in peak service (NTD 2012) Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority Page 9
7.2 ESTIMATED O&M COSTS The estimated annual O&M costs for each of the alternatives are summarized below. The annual O&M cost estimates are based on opening year of 2020 operating plans and ridership projections. For bus storage and maintenance garages, it was assumed the new vehicles would use the existing HART facilities but would increase overall garage O&M costs by approximately 5 percent (pro-rated based on the number of additional express bus vehicles divided by the total vehicles currently stored and maintained at each garage). Table 7 provides the O&M costs for the proposed express bus service along the Bruce B. Downs Boulevard corridor. Table 7: Proposed USF-Wesley Chapel Express Bus O&M Cost Estimates Bus-Hrs Bus-Miles Garages Peak Buses Total Annual Total Annual O&M Cost O&M Cost FY 2012 Unit Costs $35.79 $2.14 $2,171,248 $88,871 (2012 dollars) (2020 dollars)* USF - Wesley Chapel Express Bus 21,090 425,900 0.05 8 FY 2012 Cost per Variable $ 754,800 $ 911,800 $ 108,600 $ 711,000 $ 2,486,200 $ 3,149,400 Cost per hour $ 117.89 $ 149.33 *Assumes 3% annual inflation Source: 2012 NTD The O&M costs assume only the operation of express bus service and not the proposed circulator routes which are anticipated to serve residential and commercial areas around each express bus stop. 7.3 CAPITAL COST ESTIMATES The capital cost estimates were developed using the Federal Transit Administration s (FTA) Standard Cost Categories (SCC). Any project pursuing (or potentially pursuing) federal funding through FTA must organize project costs according to the SCC structure, which contains the following categories: SCC Category 10 Guideway: includes all transit improvements associated with the roadway including queue jumpers and pedestrian crossings. SCC Category 20 Stations/Stops: includes all costs associated with at-grade stations, such as grading, structures, finishes, equipment, mechanical and electrical components, and safety systems. SCC Category 30 Support Facilities: Yards, Shops, Administration Buildings includes construction costs associated with all support facilities, such as bus garages, maintenance facilities, and administration buildings. Cost elements include grading, structures, finishes, equipment, mechanical and electrical components, and safety systems. SCC Category 40 Sitework and Special Conditions: includes site civil elements associated with the project, including clearing and demolition, utility relocation, environmental mitigation, sidewalks, landscaping, fencing, public art, paving, and temporary construction facilities. SCC Category 50 Systems: includes all systems-related elements, such as traffic signal control and communications systems. SCC Category 60 Right-of-Way, Land, Existing Improvements: includes the purchase or lease of real estate, relocation of existing households and businesses, and professional services associated with the real estate component of the project. Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority Page 10
SCC Category 70 Vehicles: includes the costs for limited stop bus and BRT vehicles. SCC Category 80 Professional Services: includes all professional, technical and management services related to the design and construction of fixed infrastructure during the preliminary engineering, final design, and construction phases of the project. SCC Category 90 Unallocated Contingency: includes a standard unallocated contingency to account for undefined project items in early stages of project planning and design. This contingency is in addition to specific allocated contingencies for individual line items. The development of this initial cost estimate is based on general unit costs adopted from cost data from other similar express bus and BRT projects. The unit costs used for this study are shown in Table 8 below and organized by SCC classification. For the transit stations, it was assumed that 600 spaces be initially provided for the opening year of service. This estimate is assuming stand alone spaces for the proposed bus service; however, these could be shared spaces with other land uses as HART currently has with its Commuter Express park and ride facilities. Table 8: Proposed USF-Wesley Chapel Express Bus $2012 Unit Capital Costs Cost Category Units Driver Cost/Unit Notes 10 GUIDEWAY & TRACK ELEMENTS (route miles) 20 STATIONS, STOPS, TERMINALS, INTERMODAL 20.01 At-grade station, stop, shelter, terminal, platform 600 parking spaces $5,000 Includes grading, drainage, curbing, pavement, lighting, striping, shelter 30 SUPPORT FACILITIES: YARDS, SHOPS, ADMIN. BLDGS. 40 SITEWORK & SPECIAL CONDITIONS 50 SYSTEMS 50.02 Traffic signals and crossing protection 27 signals $50,000 50.06 Fare collection system and equipment 5 stops $125,000 TSP equipment installation at existing signals TVMs, communication and infrastructure at stations 60 ROW, LAND, EXISTING IMPROVEMENTS 60.01 Purchase or lease of real estate 4 stops $100,000 ROW acquisition, easement, lease agreements for stations 70 VEHICLES (number) 70.04 Vehicles 10 Vehicles $450,000 40 Gillig BRT Model Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority Page 11
Conceptual cost estimates for the express bus costs are summarized in Table 9 below. The estimate includes costs associated with transit/park and ride facilities, traffic signal upgrades, and vehicle procurement. The capital costs do not assume the cost of vehicle procurement for the circulator buses, or any costs for stops along the circulator routes. Furthermore, there are no assumed capital costs for new storage, maintenance facilities or major sitework at any proposed stations. Table 9: USF-Wesley Chapel Express Bus Estimated Capital Costs Cost Category Base Year ($2013) YOE ($2020) 10 GUIDEWAY & TRACK ELEMENTS (route miles) 20 STATIONS, STOPS, TERMINALS, INTERMODAL 20.01 At-grade station, stop, shelter, terminal, platform $3,000,000 $3,689,622 30 SUPPORT FACILITIES: YARDS, SHOPS, ADMIN. BLDGS. 40 SITEWORK & SPECIAL CONDITIONS 50 SYSTEMS 50.02 Traffic signals and crossing protection $1,350,000 $1,660,330 50.06 Fare collection system and equipment $625,000 $768,671 Construction Subtotal (10-50) $4,975,000 $6,118,622 60 ROW, LAND, EXISTING IMPROVEMENTS 60.01 Purchase or lease of real estate $400,000 $491,950 70 VEHICLES (number) 70.04 Vehicles $4,500,000 $5,534,432 80 PROFESSIONAL SERVICES (applies to Cats. 10-50) 80.01 Preliminary Engineering (4%) $199,000 $244,745 80.02 Final Design (6%) $298,500 $367,117 80.03 Project Management for Design and Construction (5%) $248,750 $305,931 80.04 Construction Administration & Management (8%) $398,000 $489,490 80.05 Professional Liability and Non-Construction Insurance (2%) $99,500 $122,372 80.06 Legal; Permits; Review Fees by other Agencies, Cities, etc. (3%) $149,250 $183,559 80.07 Surveys, Testing, Investigation, Inspection (3%) $149,250 $183,559 80.08 Start up (3%) $149,250 $183,559 Subtotal (10-80) $11,566,500 $14,225,336 90 UNALLOCATED CONTINGENCY (10%) $1,156,650 $1,422,534 TOTAL COST $12,723,150 $15,647,870 Cost per Mile $630,000 $775,000 TOTAL COST (without vehicles) $8,223,150 $10,113,437 Cost Per Mile (without vehicles) $407,000 $501,000 Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority Page 12
8.0 FINDINGS The operating plan has been designed to provide the optimum number of buses along the corridor based on the estimated running time and required 15-minute peak and 30-minute off-peak headways. The plan will carry the estimated riders for the opening year of 2020, but may not have sufficient capacity to carry the projected ridership in the horizon year of 2035. Ridership and service levels should be monitored as the opening year and horizon years approach. 9.0 NEXT STEPS Project development for the proposed express bus service will be dependent on future corridor growth and development, as well as availability of funding. With the uncertainty of local and state funding, this project could be developed using FTA funding programs through the appropriate project development procedures. The proposed service may be implemented with a phased approach, with a more modest service beginning in 2020. Service could start with 30-minute headways during peak periods and 60-minute service during off-peak periods until forecasted ridership levels are realized. Additionally, the service could start by serving a smaller geographic area such as UATC to Wiregrass until areas further to the north have developed sufficiently to support the ridership forecasts. New service should be effectively marketed to ensure public awareness through advertising campaigns and public meetings. It is recommended that ridership projections continue to be revisited as opening year approaches, and ridership levels are monitored as the service opens. If 2035 ridership projections are realized, service levels may need to be adjusted accordingly. To address potential capacity issues, the service could be split into two separate routes serving different stations. For example, one route may serve I-75/S.R. 52 and Wiregrass to UATC, while the other route serves Cross Creek and Lowe s Park and Ride to UATC. Future development along the corridor should be closely monitored to look for opportunities to develop facilities to support express bus service, such as suitable station locations and bicycle and pedestrian access. Transit supportive development should also be encouraged as new development takes place. Future population and employment data should be closely monitored to ensure regional projections remain valid. Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority Page 13