Using a Statewide Model to Analyze Truck Traffic for the I-81 Corridor Study in Virginia Presented by Paul Agnello, VDOT Central Office TRB Annual Meeting, January 25, 2006 I-81 Study Area I-81 Study Area 1
Fast Facts on I-81 1. Longest Virginia Interstate at 325 miles 2. Transverses rolling and mountainous terrain through predominantly rural areas 3. Typical 2004 ADT: 40,000 60,000 4. One of the Top 8 Truck Routes in the U.S. 5. Interstate was designed for 15% Trucks, but Trucks now account for 20-40% of Total Traffic 6. For More Info. on I-81 Study: http://www.i-81.org/ Virginia Statewide Model Overview 1 st Virginia Statewide Model (VSM) Developed by Wilbur Smith Associates Completed in April, 2005 Base & Horizon Year: 2000/2025 Internal TAZs: 1,642 Internal Subzones: 7,007 Links/Nodes: 247,000/109,000 Standard Model Run = about 100 minutes Select Link Run = up to 40 hours (Pent. 4 2.8 GHz) 2
Lee $% 70 Frederick $%9 Winchester Clarke $%287 Leesburg $%255 Loudoun Strasburg Herndon Front Royal ViennaFalls Church Woodstock Warren Arlington Fairfax Fauquier Alexandria Manassas Shenandoah Manassas Park $%263 Fairfax Rappahannock Warrenton Prince William Luray $%193 $%237 $%245 $%305 $%228 $%377 $%229 Dumfries Culpeper Page Rockingham Culpeper $%712 Stafford Harrisonburg Madison Elkton $%383 Highland Bridgewater $%259 $%123 Fredericksburg King George Grottoes Greene $%185 Orange $%55 $%79 Orange $%213 Spotsylvania Augusta Staunton Westmoreland Charlottesville Bath Waynesboro $%28 $%276 Caroline $% 203 Chincoteague Essex Louisa Albemarle $%302 $%55 Richmond Rockbridge $%256 Northumberland Alleghany $%342 Clifton Forge $%240 Fluvanna $%375 Hanover King Accomack $%290 Nelson Ashland William $%316 Covington Lexington Goochland Lancaster $%200 Buena Vista King & Queen $%187 $%358 Henrico Middlesex Amherst $% 126 $%251 Buckingham $%388 Botetourt $%277 Powhatan Cumberland Richmond New Kent $%182 $% 5 Craig $%178 $% 259 $%150 $%222 Appomattox Henrico James City Gloucester Mathews Northampton Lynchburg $% 7 $%326 Charles City Amelia Bedford Chesterfield NarrowsPearisburg Roanoke Buchanan Giles $%522 Hopewell WilliamsburgYork Salem Farmville $%3 Colonial RoanokeVinton $%257 $%231 $%3 Heights $%325 Bluefield Blacksburg $%151 $%231 Campbell Petersburg Prince George $% 102 Bedford Prince Edward $%20 Dickenson Tazewell $% 84 $%203 Poquoson Bland Nottoway $%396 Newport Tazewell Christiansburg $%320 Surry News Richlands Radford $%39 $%252 Altavista Blackstone Dinwiddie Hampton $%208 Pulaski Montgomery $%223 Wise Pulaski Wise Russell $%184 Rocky Mount $%273 $%20 Isle of Smithfield Norton $%220 Wight Wytheville $%419 $% 39 495 Charlotte Lunenburg $%234 Sussex Norfolk Big Smyth Floyd $%6 Virginia Beach Stone Gap Lebanon $% 39 66 $%20 $%242 $%3 Franklin Halifax 395 Saltville $%314 $%980 $%339 495 Portsmouth Washington Marion Wythe $%133 Pittsylvania $%28 6 95 Chase City $%306 $%3 $%230 Brunswick $%206 Scott $%56 6 $%169 Carroll $%43 Abingdon $% 131 $%218 South Hill $%166 $%56 South Boston $%6 Emporia Southampton Suffolk Chesapeake $%373 Patrick $%311 $% 20 $%208 $%175 Mecklenburg Franklin Grayson Galax Martinsville$%43 95 $%98 $%328 Bristol $%151 Greensville Henry $%22 $%260 $%359 Danville $%6 $%14 $% 3 $%43 $%122 $%205 $%252 $%254 $%151 $%53 $%96 $% 3 $%201 $%369 $%61 $%24 $%159 $%214 $%392 $% 42 $%80 $%386 $%2 $%156 $%348 $%87 $%119 $% 108 $%24 $% 14 $%311 $%370 $% 16 $%204 $%76 $%174 $%83 $%153 $%336 $%139 $%58 $%130 $%24 95 $%49 $%40 $%136 $%148 $%26 $%33 $%354 $%224 $%216 $%202 $%93 $%30 $%106 $%207 $%83 $%47 $%86 $%72 $%349 $% 13 $%390 $% 38 $%18 $%5 $%10 $%227 91 $%57 $% $% 10 $%171 67 $%67 $% 83 $%180 $%49 $%40 $%80 $%40 $% $% 40 $%43 $%40 $% 31 $%61 $% 63 81 $% 45 57 $%91 $%16 $%72 $%156 72 $%80 $% $% $% 91 $%106 80 $%46 $%160 $%59 $%155 $%10 $%337 $%24 $%249 $%271 $%125 95 $%198 $%183 $%122 $% 92 $%49 $%82 $%65 $%71 381 $%75 $%107 $%362 $%16 81 77 $%274 $%94 $% 89 7 $%97 $%100 77 $%8 $%8 $%103 $%346 581 $%116 $%57 $%41 $%62 $%360 $%344 $%47 $%307 $%4 85 $%138 $%137 $%153 $%46 85 $%288 295 95 195 95 295 95 295 $%380 $% 186 $%308 $% 35 $%189 $%132 $%32 664 $%134 664 464 564 264 $%165 $%190 $%168 $% 225 $%409 264 $%279 $%410 VSM TAZ Structure VSM Network for Virginia Legend WATER Roads Interstate Primary Railroads Statewide TAZ's Urbanized Area $% 145 $%322 3
VSM is Setup in CUBE Catalog Format What Can the VSM Do? 1. Model car & truck traffic outside of urban areas 2. Model interstate traffic passing through Virginia, e.g., TN to WV on I-81 3. Model intercity passenger rail traffic, e.g., AMTRAK 4
What Can t the VSM Do? 1. Compete with or replace urban models 2. Model traffic within urban areas 3. Model total traffic outside of Virginia 4. Model intermodal freight traffic VSM Truck Model Includes Heavy Trucks (3+ axles) Long distance truck travel is based on 2001 Global Insight Transearch data (predominantly interstate) Short distance truck travel is based on a combination of Transearch data and matrix estimation (all intrastate) 5
I-81 Study Application Heavy Truck Percentages Local vs. Through Truck Traffic Truck Travel Patterns through Virginia VSM Heavy Truck Percentages at Some Critical I-81 Study Points South of I-66: 35% North of Roanoke: 31% South of Roanoke: 32% I-81 Study Area 6
VSM Through vs. Local Truck Traffic at Some Critical I-81 Study Points North of Roanoke: 93% vs. 7% South of Roanoke: 83% vs. 17% South of I-66: 90% vs. 10% I-81 Study Area More Long Distance Truck Traffic Going SB vs. NB? SB NB 7
VSM Use in Planning Process To provide traffic data over a wider area To provide traffic forecasts and analysis not easily obtainable by other means To provide a Big Picture view of traffic patterns through and around the state Conclusions/Lessons Learned 2001 Transearch Data did not include empty trucks. Importance of updating VSM with 2003 Transearch Data to include empty trucks. Statewide model can produce reasonable results for truck traffic analysis 8
Questions? 9