Room, packaged & close control air conditioning United Kingdom European air conditioning A multi client study By David Garwood November 2012
Room, packaged & close control air conditioning United Kingdom A multi client study Contract: Report 55302/14 Date: November 2012 Issued by: BSRIA Limited Old Bracknell Lane West, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 7AH UK Telephone: +44 (0)1344 465600 Fax: +44 (0)1344 465626 E: bsria@bsria.co.uk W: www.bsria.co.uk Compiled by: Name: David Garwood Approved by: Name: Eleonora Calio This report must not be reproduced except in full without the written approval of an executive director of BSRIA. It is only intended to be used within the context described in the text. BSRIA Page 3 of 8
1 INTRODUCTION... 8 1.1 Methodology... 8 1.2 Definitions... 9 2 SUMMARY... 10 3 MARKET SIZE, STRUCTURE AND SEGMENTATION... 13 3.1 Market size... 13 3.2 Windows/through the wall... 15 3.3 Moveables... 17 3.4 Splits... 19 3.4.1 Splits and VRF overview... 19 3.4.2 Splits and VRF - size analysis, by mode and type of outdoor unit... 21 3.4.3 Analysis by inverter... 24 3.4.4 Ducted splits size analysis by mode and type of outdoor unit... 25 3.4.5 Analysis by inverter... 28 3.4.6 Analysis by type of indoor unit... 29 3.5 Rooftops... 32 3.6 Indoor packaged (self contained)... 34 3.7 Close control... 36 3.7.1 Close control analysed by size... 38 4 PACKAGED AIR CONDITIONING BY TYPE OF REFRIGERANTS... 39 5 MAJOR COMPANIES... 40 5.1 Overview... 40 5.2 Windows and moveables... 40 5.2.1 Window through the wall... 40 5.2.2 Moveables... 40 5.3 Splits... 41 5.3.1 Single ductless splits... 41 5.3.2 Multisplits... 41 5.3.3 VRF... 41 5.3.4 Japanese ducted... 42 5.3.5 US ducted... 42 5.3.6 High wall... 42 5.3.7 Cassettes... 42 5.3.8 Other... 42 5.4 Rooftops and indoor packaged... 43 5.4.1 Rooftops... 43 5.4.2 Indoor packaged... 43 5.5 Close control... 44 5.6 Product matrix of key suppliers... 45 6 HISTORICAL TREND AND FORECASTS... 46 6.1 Historical trends... 46 6.2 Forecasts... 50 6.2.1 Assumptions... 50 6.2.2 Room air conditioning (window / through the wall; moveables)... 50 6.2.3 Single ductless splits... 50 6.2.4 Ducted splits (Japanese and US)... 50 6.2.5 Multi-splits... 50 6.2.6 VRF... 51 6.2.7 Rooftops... 51 6.2.8 Indoor packaged... 51 6.2.9 Close control... 51 BSRIA Page 4 of 8
6.3 Construction & macroeconomic factors... 59 6.3.1 Construction and forecast... 59 7 OVERSEAS TRADE... 63 7.1 Production... 63 7.1.1 Trends in manufacturing... 63 7.2 Imports... 64 7.3 Exports... 64 8 DISTRIBUTION... 65 9 PRICING, DISCOUNTS AND MARGINS... 66 10 SPLITS STOCK LEVELS... 68 11 END USER SECTORS AND APPLICATION... 69 12 SPECIFICATION TRENDS... 70 12.1 The specification process... 70 12.2 Equipment and brand specification... 70 APPENDICES APPENDIX: A... ADDRESSES OF AIR CONDITIONING SUPPLIERS... 71 APPENDIX: B... END USER APPLICATIONS NEW DEFINITIONS... 73 APPENDIX: C... MINISPLIT AND VRF DEFINITIONS... 74 TABLES Table 1 Current and future AC penetration into the residential and commercial market... 12 Table 2 Volume of the packaged air conditioning market (units), 2010-2012(E)... 13 Table 3 Value of the packaged air conditioning market ( million), 2010-2012(E)... 14 Table 4 Value of the packaged air conditioning market (Euro million), 2010-2012(E)... 14 Table 5 Value of the packaged air conditioning market (US$ million), 2010-2012(E)... 14 Table 6 Window and through the wall analysed by mode, volume (units), 2010... 16 Table 7 Window and through the wall analysed by mode, volume (units), 2011... 16 Table 8 Window and through the wall analysed by mode, volume (units), 2012E... 16 Table 9 Window and through the wall analysed by size, volume (units), 2010-2012(E)... 16 Table 10 Window and through the wall analysed by size, value ( million), 2010-2012(E)... 16 Table 11 Window and through the wall analysed by size, value (Euro million), 2010-2012(E)... 16 Table 12 Window and through the wall analysed by size, value (US$ million), 2010-2012(E)... 17 Table 13 Moveables sales by type and mode, volume (units), 2010... 17 Table 14 Moveables sales by type and mode, volume (units), 2011... 17 Table 15 Moveables sales by type and mode, volume (units), 2012(E)... 18 Table 16 Moveables sales analysed by size, volume (units), 2010-2012(E)... 18 Table 17 Moveables sales analysed by size, value ( million), 2010-2012(E)... 18 Table 18 Moveables sales analysed by size, value (Euro million), 2010-2012(E)... 18 Table 19 Moveables sales analysed by size, value (US$ million), 2010-2012(E)... 18 Table 20 Ductless split market analysed by volume (units), 2010-2012(E)... 20 Table 21 Ductless split market analysed by value ( million), 2010-2012(E)... 20 Table 22 Ductless split market analysed by value (Euro million), 2010-2012(E)... 21 Table 23 Ductless split market analysed by value (US$ million), 2010-2012(E)... 21 Table 24 Sales of standard outdoor units, by size and mode, volume (units), 2011... 23 BSRIA Page 5 of 8
Table 25 Sales of VRF outdoor units, by size and mode, volume (units), 2011... 23 Table 26 VRF market by value and capacity installed, 2010-2016(F)... 23 Table 27 Ductless splits market by type of outdoor unit, volume (units), 2010-2012(E)... 24 Table 28 Ductless split market penetration of inverters, volume (units), 2010-2012(E)... 25 Table 29 Ductless split market penetration of inverters, value ( million), 2010-2012(E)... 25 Table 30 Ductless split market penetration of inverters, value (Euro million), 2010-2012(E)... 25 Table 31 Ductless splits market penetration of inverters, value (US$ million), 2010-2012(E)... 25 Table 32 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, volume (units), 2010-2012(E)... 26 Table 33 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value ( million), 2010... 26 Table 34 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value ( million), 2011... 26 Table 35 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value ( million), 2012(E)... 26 Table 36 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (Euro million), 2010... 27 Table 37 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (Euro million), 2011... 27 Table 38 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (Euro million), 2012(E)... 27 Table 39 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (US$ million), 2010... 27 Table 40 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (US$ million), 2011... 28 Table 41 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (US$ million), 2012(E)... 28 Table 42 Ducted split market penetration of inverters, volume (units), 2010-2012(E)... 29 Table 43 Ducted split market penetration of inverters, value ( million), 2010-2012(E)... 29 Table 44 Ducted split market penetration of inverters, value (Euro million), 2010-2012(E)... 29 Table 45 Ducted splits market penetration of inverters, value (US$ million), 2010-2012(E)... 29 Table 46 Sales of splits standard indoor units (non-vrf) analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), 2011... 30 Table 47 Sales of splits standard indoor units (non-vrf) analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), 2012(E)... 30 Table 48 Sales of VRF indoor units analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), 2011... 30 Table 49 Sales of VRF indoor units analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), 2012(E)... 31 Table 50 Sales of standard + VRF indoor units analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), 2011... 31 Table 51 Sales of standard + VRF indoor units analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), 2012(E)... 31 Table 52 Rooftops market by size and mode, volume (units), 2010... 33 Table 53 Rooftops market by size and mode, volume (units), 2011... 33 Table 54 Rooftops market by size and mode, volume (units), 2012(E)... 33 Table 55 Rooftops market by size, volume (units), 2010-2012(E)... 33 Table 56 Indoor packaged market, volume (units), 2010-2012(E)... 34 Table 57 Indoor packaged market, value ( million), 2010-2012(E)... 34 Table 58 Indoor packaged market, value (Euro million), 2010-2012(E)... 34 Table 59 Indoor packaged market, value (US$ million), 2011-2012(E)... 35 Table 60 Indoor packaged market analysed by mode and size, volume (units), 2010... 35 Table 61 Indoor packaged market by mode and size, volume (units), 2011... 35 Table 62 Indoor packaged market by mode and size, volume (units), 2012(E)... 35 Table 63 Close control market analysed by application, volume (units), 2010-2012(E)... 37 Table 64 Close control market analysed by application, value ( million), 2010-2012(E)... 37 Table 65 Close control market analysed by application, value (Euro million), 2010-2012(E)... 37 Table 66 Close control market analysed by application, value (US$ million), 2010-2012(E)... 37 Table 67 Close control market by size, volume (units), 2010-2012(E)... 38 Table 68 Packaged air conditioning by type of refrigerants, % sales by volume, 2011... 39 Table 69 Market leaders for windows & moveables, by volume, 2011... 40 Table 70 Market leaders for ductless splits by product type, by volume, 2011... 41 Table 71 Market leaders for single split, indoor units, by volume, 2011... 42 Table 72 Market leaders for rooftops and indoor packaged, by volume, 2011... 43 Table 73 Market leaders for close control, by volume, 2011... 44 Table 74 Matrix of suppliers, packaged air conditioning, 2011... 45 Table 75 Historical trend for packaged air conditioning, volume (units), 2007-2011... 46 Table 76 Historical trend for packaged air conditioning, value at current prices ( million), 2007-2011... 47 Table 77 Historical trend for packaged air conditioning, average MSP, 2007-2011... 47 Table 78 Historical trend for packaged air conditioning, value at current prices (Euro million), 2007-2011... 48 BSRIA Page 6 of 8
Table 79 Historical trend for packaged air conditioning, average Euro MSP, 2007-2011... 48 Table 80 Historical trend for packaged air conditioning, value at current prices (US$ million), 2007-2011... 49 Table 81 Historical trend for packaged air conditioning, average US$ MSP, 2007-2011... 49 Table 82 Forecast assumptions... 50 Table 83 Forecast for packaged air conditioning, outdoor units, volume (units), 2010-2016... 52 Table 84 Forecast for packaged air conditioning, outdoor units, value ( million in 2011 prices), 2010-2016... 53 Table 85 Forecast for packaged air conditioning, outdoor units, average MSP in 2011 prices, 2010-2016... 54 Table 86 Forecast for packaged air conditioning, outdoor units, value (Euro million in 2011 prices), 2010-2016... 55 Table 87 Forecast for packaged air conditioning, outdoor units, average Euro MSP in 2011 prices, 2010-2016... 56 Table 88 Forecast for packaged air conditioning, outdoor units, value (US$ million in 2011 prices), 2010-2016... 57 Table 89 Forecast for packaged air conditioning, outdoor units, average US$ MSP in 2011 prices, 2010-2016... 58 Table 90 Construction trends and forecasts, 2009-2014... 61 Table 91 Macro-economic forecasts, 2010-2016... 61 Table 92 Trends in consumer price index, 2008-2015... 62 Table 93 Manufacturer information on major suppliers... 63 Table 94 Foreign trade (derived), packaged air conditioning, volume (units), 2011... 64 Table 95 Distribution of packaged air conditioning products, first point of sale, % by volume, 2011... 65 Table 96 Examples of average list prices ( ) by product type, 2011... 66 Table 97 Examples of average list prices (Euro) by product type, 2011... 66 Table 98 Examples of average list prices (US$) by product type, 2011... 67 Table 99 Splits stock levels in the UK, by volume of outdoor units, end Sept 2010-2012... 68 Table 100 End users for packaged air conditioning, % sales by value, 2011... 69 Table 101 Applications for packaged air conditioning, % of sales by value, 2011... 69 Table 102 Specification of type of equipment, packaged air conditioning, % by value, 2011... 70 Table 103 Specification of brand of equipment, packaged air conditioning, % by value, 2011... 70 FIGURES Figure 1 Map of UK... 10 Figure 2 Overview of packaged air conditioning market, % by volume and value, 2011... 12 Figure 3 Volume of the packaged air conditioning market, 2011... 15 Figure 4 Value of the packaged air conditioning market (Euro million), 2011... 15 Figure 5 Windows and through the wall analysed by size and mode, volume (units), 2011... 17 Figure 6 Moveables analysed by size and mode, volume (units), 2011... 19 Figure 7 Ductless splits market analysed by size, type and mode, volume (units), 2011... 24 Figure 8 Ducted splits market analysed by size and mode, volume (units), 2011... 28 Figure 9 Split indoor units, by size and mounting, volume (units), 2011... 32 Figure 10 Split indoor units, by size and mounting, volume (%), 2011... 32 Figure 11 Rooftops analysed by size and mode, volume (units), 2011... 34 Figure 12 Indoor packaged market analysed by size, volume (units), 2011... 36 Figure 13 Close control market analysed by size, volume (units), 2011... 38 Figure 14 Trend and forecast for packaged air conditioning, value (Euro million), 2010-2016... 59 BSRIA Page 7 of 8
1 INTRODUCTION This report is the result of BSRIA s 16th annual study on the key European markets for air conditioning. The countries covered are: UK France Germany Italy Spain Poland Russia In terms of product groups, these are covered in two separate volumes, as follows, for each country: Packaged Air Conditioning Windows/through the wall Moveables Single splits Multi splits VRF US-style ducted splits Roof tops Indoor packaged Close control Central Plant Air Conditioning Chillers Air handling units Fan coils Other terminal units Definitions of key product groups are available in a separate definitions report. Data in the reports are supplied for 2010, 2011 and 2012 (estimates), with forecasts to 2016. However, please note that due to the volume of data, the main part of the report will concentrate around 2010-2011 data, with some key 2012 data. 1.1 METHODOLOGY The research was based on a mixture of methodologies: Desk research In the UK, data was obtained through a mixture of methodologies: - Statistical collection, based on annual HEVAC statistics, which BSRIA collects on behalf of the UK Trade Association - Personal and telephone interviews Outside the UK, statistical data submitted by individual companies in selected product areas. BSRIA uses a mixture of its own consultants from the Worldwide Market Intelligence section and its subsidiaries outside of the UK, and its long-term partners. Data obtained outside the UK was cross-checked and formatted by BSRIA in order to provide comparable data. Face to face Pan-European interviews with European Head offices were undertaken by BSRIA s own consultants to cross-check draft data. document1 03 July 2013 Page 8 of 8