MEET THE JETSONS Track: Data and Innovation In the not so distant future, connected and autonomous vehicles will change the way we travel, with impacts for cities, transportation agencies, and YOU. What does a self driving future look like? What are the implications to planners, policy makers, and citizens? What steps need to be taken now to prepare for this future?
TRANSPORT CHICAGO JUNE 10, 2016 The Ongoing Application and Implementation of Connected and Autonomous Vehicle Technology Presented by: Jonathon Hart, AICP
Potential Applications/Benefits of CAVs Intersection Collision Avoidance Signal Prioritization Queue Warn Speed Harmonization Predictive Braking Dynamic Cruise Blind Spot Detection Platooning Wireless Inspection 2
Adoption of New Vehicle Technology Average of 14 15 Years to Reach 50 Percent Market Penetration 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 ABS Seat Belt Air Bags Elec. Stability Ctrl. 1999 2002 40.0 30.0 1977 20.0 10.0 0.0
Adoption of New Vehicle Technology Fleet Turnover Average Age All Light Vehicles 11.4 11.4 11.2 10.9 10.6 10.3 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 8.8 8.8 8.9 8.9 8.4 8.5 8.6 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Full Driver Control Full Automation
Self-Driving Cars: Implications for Transit Update or Will the Google Car Replace my Bus? Transport Chicago June 10, 2016
Transit Agency Shared Mobility Partnerships 1. Marketing coordination 2. Trip planning app integration TransLoc 3. Operations integration KCATA
Fixed Route Service Competitiveness 50 40 Productivity (passengers per hour) 30 20 Taxpayer Agency Customer Society 10 0 T3 T2 T1 A3 A2 A1 Taxi/AV Fare Level Traditional Taxi TNC Single Ride TNC Shared Ride Shared AV at $0.75/mile Shared AV at $0.50/mile Shared AV at $0.25/mile
Autonomous Transit California 2016 Sensor technology advances allow operation in mixed traffic Numerous trials of low speed 8 12 passenger vehicles around the world Yutong Singapore Driverless Bus www.bishopranch.com Citymobil2 Greenwich Automated Transport Experiment (GATEway) straitstimes.com yutong.com gateway project.org.uk citymobil2.eu
Connected and Autonomous Vehicles What Does Our Self-Driving Future Mean for Transportation Planning? presented to Transport Chicago presented by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Sam Van Hecke June 1 10, 2016
Top 5 Things Planners Need to Know 1. Self-driving vehicles will happen 2. It s connected AND autonomous 3. Commercial vehicles will be first 4. Capacity expansion may be a thing of the past 5. The shared economy will play a huge part in the mobility of the future 2002 Dreamworks LLC and Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation (used without permission) http://www.linkedin.com/pulse/top-5-things-planners-need-know-self-driving-vehicles-chris-hedden-1 2
Impact on Planning Products and Processes PRODUCTS 3 TIP Regional ITS Architecture Bicycle and Ped Plan LRTP Asset Management Plan SHSP Transit Development Plan Public Involvement Plan Freight Plan Financial Plan PROCESSES Long range planning Project selection/programming Project design Travel demand forecasting Safety analysis Data collection Data management Infrastructure maintenance Operations http://www.its.dot.gov/connected_vehicle/cv_planners.htm Workforce development
Dealing with the Uncertainty Don t focus on how Don t pick sides Build relationships Use Robust Decision Making» Near-term strategies» Deferred adaptive strategies» Hedging strategies» Shaping strategies Top 5 Things Planners Need to Know About Self-Driving Vehicles 4
MEET THE JETSONS Track: Data and Innovation In the not-so-distant future, connected and autonomous vehicles will change the way we travel, with impacts for cities, transportation agencies, and YOU. Let s Discuss