Subarea Study. Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project. Final Version 1. Washington County.

Subarea Study Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project Final Version 1 Washington County June 12, 214 SRF No. 138141

Table of Contents Introduction... 1 Forecast Methodology and Assumptions... 3 Development Assumptions... 3 Roadway Network Assumptions... 6 Roadway Network Alternatives... 8 Forecast Analysis Results... 1 Subarea Study Forecasts... 1 Comparison with Previously Published Forecasts... 1 Manning Avenue to/from TH 5 Travel Pattern Shifts... 16 Alternative 1 vs. No Build... 16 Alternative 2 vs. No Build... 17 Alternative 3 vs. No Build... 18 Alternative 4 vs. No Build... 19 Alternatives Evaluation... 2 Alternatives Evaluation Summary... 2 Criteria 1: Vehicle Miles and Vehicle Hours Traveled (VMT and VHT)... 22 Criteria 2: Safety... 23 Criteria 3: Arterial Roadway Capacity... 25 Criteria 4: Local Intersection Operations... 27 Criteria 5: System Plan Consistency... 28 Selection of Preferred Alternative... 29 Appendix Soceioeconmic Data (SE Data) for Traffic Forecasts H:\Projects\8141\TP\Sub Area Study\612214 CSAH 15 SubareaStudy.docx Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project i SRF Consulting Group, Inc.

Introduction The purpose of this Manning Avenue County State Aid Highway (CSAH) 15 Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project Subarea Study is to identify, evaluate, and recommend roadway network improvements that best meet the goals and objectives defined by the project team. This is done by using the subarea study findings and results to assess the potential benefits or challenges from an overall system perspective. Manning Avenue is a north-south minor arterial roadway that serves as a primary connection for many resident and business patrons along the corridor and throughout Washington County. The subarea study area depicted in Figure 1 includes the general area bounded by Trunk Highway (TH) 36 to the north, I-694 to the west, I-94 to the south, and TH 95 to the east. The primary project goals and objectives identified for this subarea study include: Improve the safety and operation of the corridor by enhancing alignments, profiles, and geometrics while considering alternative intersection control types. Provide adequate near- and long-term capacity while maintaining the viability of commercial and residential growth along the Manning Avenue corridor. Provide system continuity by developing Manning Avenue as a north-south arterial in Washington County from I-94 to TH 36. Maintain consistency with local comprehensive plans. This subarea study forms the basis for the traffic operations analysis, environmental documentation, and the development of corridor concept layouts. This study documents the methodology, assumptions, network alternatives analysis, and results used for the selection of the preferred alternative. Based on the goals and objectives identified, the project team recommends the following roadway network alternatives: The expansion of Manning Avenue from two-lane undivided roadway to four-lane divided roadway between TH 5 and CSAH 1 in the study area. The realignment of TH 5 at Manning Avenue and CSAH 14. Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project 1 SRF Consulting Group, Inc.

Subarea Study?ÇA@ Freeway Link & Interchange Volumes? A@ ( 12 ( 11 GoWX ( 1 ( 17 Arterial Study %&h( Intersection Turning Movement Counts & Approach Volumes ( 9 ( 16 ( 15 ( 14?öA@ J:\Maps\8141\mxd\Figure1_SubareaStudyArea.mxd "b$ Hudson Blvd Intersection Turning Movement Counts (( 7 8 ( 6 ( ( 5 4 ( 13 3 ( 2 ( 1?öA@ Freeway Link & Interchange Volumes 1 2 Miles [ Subarea Study Area Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project Washington County, MN Figure 1

Forecast Methodology and Assumptions Year 23 daily traffic forecasts for this subarea study were developed using the Washington County Regional Travel Demand Model (Model). The previous base year 25 was updated to year 21 to include recently available data, which provides a more current basis for traffic forecast development. The model was refined in the study area to include additional transportation analysis zone (TAZ) and roadway network detail. Daily traffic volumes were validated based on the degree to which the model replicates known field counts. Future socioeconomic and roadway system data was incorporated to predict future conditions. Future year 23 volumes were adjusted consistent with the method described in NCHRP 255: Highway Traffic Data for Urbanized Area Project Planning and Design. Development Assumptions Year 21 population and household values used are 21 U.S. Census block-level data aggregated to study area TAZ. Year 21 employment estimates are based on city-level MnDEED data, Metropolitan Council employment datasets, past forecasts, and visual inspection of aerial maps. Year 23 population, household, and employment data was based on local comprehensive plans and the growth sub-allocation within the study area was based on future land use plans. The TAZ demographic forecast allocations are generally consistent with the published local comprehensive plans. In some cases year 21 U.S. Census information resulted in existing totals that exceed 23 values and zone-level adjustments were made where necessary to reallocate development to maintain growth in each TAZ. All municipal development forecasts were assumed consistent with the Metropolitan Council Year 23 Regional Development Framework as of January 212. Year 21 and year 23 development assumptions are included in Table 1 for the three study area communities (see Figures 2 and 3). Detailed socioeconomic data (SE Data) is provided as an Appendix. Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project 3 SRF Consulting Group, Inc.

3?ÇA@ 37 41 16 25 Year 21-23 Growth 39 1 7 7 78 56? A@ 59 32 32 1 87 196 37 13 52 8 5 172 337 142 9 219 15 75 %&h( 561 89 59 GoWX 7 7 24?öA@ Legend CSAH 15 Corridor Municipal Boundaries Household Growth J:\Maps\8141\mxd\Figure2_LandDevelopmentAssumptions.mxd 464 169 599 668 "b$ 263 399 814?öA@ 21 39 1-75 76-2 21-4 41-814 [ 1 2 Miles Land Development Assumptions (Households) Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project Washington County Figure 2

?ÇA@ 18 5 5 Year 21-23 Growth? A@ 78 89 513 164 311 1 364 121 1 41 %&h( 2 GoWX?öA@ Legend CSAH 15 Corridor Municipal Boundaries Employment Growth J:\Maps\8141\mxd\Figure3_Land Development Assumptions.mxd 169 1,8 2,432 "b$ 1,665 4,312?öA@ 68 2-41 42-169 17-513 514-4,312 [ 1 2 Miles Land Development Assumptions (Employment) Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project Washington County Figure 3

Table 1. Year 21 and Year 23 Development Assumptions Households Employment Study Area Community Year 21 Year 23 Percent Change 21-23 Year 21 Year 23 Percent Change 21-23 Lake Elmo 2,776 8,727 214% 1,941 14, 621% Baytown Township 573 76 33% 69 12 74% West Lakeland Township 1,286 1,51 17% 232 3 29% The Metropolitan Council has released preliminary growth forecasts for the year 24 in conjunction with its Thrive MSP 24 planning process. The Council anticipates a slowing pace of growth in the region. Formal adoption of the Thrive 24 plan and its forecasts is expected later in 214. Roadway Network Assumptions Year 23 roadway network assumptions include transportation investments identified as funded in the Minnesota State Transportation Improvement Program, the Washington County Capital Improvement Plan, and the City of Lake Elmo Capital Improvement Plan. All study area programmed and non-programmed transportation improvements are identified in Figure 4; however, only the programmed projects identified in red were included in the year 23 network for the purposes of forecasting future traffic volumes. All development and roadway improvement assumptions were reviewed and approved by the project team prior to conducting the future year analysis. Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project 6 SRF Consulting Group, Inc.

Intersection of TH 36 & Hilton Trail converted to an interchange Intersection of TH 36 & Demontreville Trail converted from a full access to a 3/4 intersection with U-turn medians TH 36 South Frontage Road Study Existing river crossing closed to motor vehicle traffic TH 36 & Century Ave Intersection Improvements?ÇA@ Intersection improvements at TH 36 & Lake Elmo Ave and TH 36 & Manning Ave? A@ TH 36 signalized intersections at Osgood Ave, Greeley St, and Washington Ave remain at-grade. Minor intersection improvements were included to the frontage road system. Construct St. Croix river bridge TH 36 & Hadley Ave Intersection Improvements CSAH 17 Potential Safety and Capacity Improvements GnWX GuWX?öA@ J:\Maps\8141\mxd\Figure4_Roadway Network Assumptions.mxd Gateway Transitway Corridor %&h( GlWX "b$ Construct 5th Street from CSAH 13 to CSAH 15 GsWX GqWX GoWX?öA@ GiWX 3th Street Potential Roadway Enhancements Future Park-and-Ride Facility (55 spaces) Legend Programmed Improvements (Assumed in 23 No Build) Non-Programmed Improvements (Not assumed in 23 No Build) Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Metropolitan Urban Service Area 23 1 2 Miles [ Roadway Network Assumptions Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project Washington County Figure 4

Roadway Network Alternatives Based on the goals and objectives identified for this subarea study, four roadway improvement alternatives were identified for the subarea analysis and evaluation (see Figure 5). Additionally, the No Build was included as a point of comparison which includes the non-programmed improvements previously identified. Also, the remaining two-lane portion of TH 5 north of Manning Avenue near TH 36 was assumed to be a fourlane facility for comparison purposes between Alternatives 2 and 3. The four build alternatives are described in Table 2. Table 2. Roadway Network Alternatives Alternative Description 1 Realignment of TH 5 at Manning Avenue and CSAH 14 2 Expansion of Manning Avenue from two-lane undivided roadway to four-lane divided roadway between TH 5 and CSAH 1 in the study area 3 4 Realignment of TH 5 at Manning Avenue and CSAH 14 Expansion of Manning Avenue from two-lane undivided roadway to four-lane divided roadway between TH 5 and CSAH 1 in the study area Local improvements related to the I-94 development area and improvements southeast of Lake Elmo Old Village Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project 8 SRF Consulting Group, Inc.

J:\Maps\8141\mxd\Figure 5_Roadway Alternatives.cdr Alternatives 2 and 3 Assume 4-lane Facility from CSAH 15 to TH 36 Approximate Locations Actual Locations to be Determined LEGEND - Realignment Improvements for Alternatives 1 and 3-4-Lane Facility Improvements for Alternatives 2 and 3 - Local Connections for Alternative 4 Roadway Network Alternatives Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project Washington County Figure 5

Forecast Analysis Results Subarea Study Forecasts Year 23 daily traffic forecasts were developed for the network alternatives and for the No Build (see Figures 6 through 1). The following reasonableness checks were applied to review the traffic forecasts. Comparison with Previously Published Forecasts Subarea study forecasts were reviewed for consistency with the following previously published forecasts: City of Lake Elmo Year 23 Comprehensive Plan Washington County Year 23 Comprehensive Plan TH 36/Lake Elmo Avenue Intersection Improvement Project No Build traffic forecasts on Manning Avenue range from 15, to 28, vehicles per day (vpd). This is consistent with No Build traffic forecasts published in the Lake Elmo and Washington County Comprehensive Plans. Manning Avenue forecasts for Alternative 3, which includes both the expansion of Manning Avenue and realignment of TH 5, are expected to increase to between 25, and 35, vpd. This is also consistent with traffic forecasts of 25, to 28, vpd published in the Lake Elmo Comprehensive Plan. Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project 1 SRF Consulting Group, Inc.

38,5 (53,)?ÇA@ 3,5 (9,1) 18,6 (24,) 36, (61,) 2,9 (33,) 3, (48,) #,### - 21 AADT (#,###) - 23 No Build AADT Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Study Corridor J:\Maps\8141\mxd\Figure6_ForecastNoBuild.mxd 67, (86,) 71, (9,) %h GlWX 7,1 (16,7) b 11,7 (21,) 89, (119,)? A@ GsWX 9,6 (34,) GqWX 69 (2,3) 4,45 (11,2) 1,5 4,1 73 (17,5) (11,8) (2,8) 86 (3,) 1,7 (17,) 3,6 (11,) 1,15 (1,9) GqWX 68 (4,1) 16,8 (25,) 3,7 (6,2) 11,5 1,45 (18,3) (15,5) 1,7 4,1 (16,6) (11,7) 4,3 (6,1) 5,2 11,87 (1,) (2,) 3,45 (5,8) 13,6 (27,5) (5,9) 78 (7,5) 13,3 (34,)?öA@ GoWX 1,6 (2,) GnWX 4,8 (9,6) (3,8) 2,8 (8,1) 1,95 (5,7) GiWX GuWX 2,85 (5,9) Under Capacity Approaching Capacity Over Capacity?öA@ [ 1 2 Miles Copyright: 213 Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ Existing and Year 23 No Build Daily Traffic Forecasts Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project Washington County Figure 6

(24,) (53,) (61,) [+3] [+4] [+4] (33,) [-4]?ÇA@ (9,1) [] (48,) [-5] (#,###) - 23 No Build AADT [###] - Delta Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Study Corridor J:\Maps\8141\mxd\Figure7_ForecastScenario1.mxd (86,) [+5] (9,) [-3] %h GlWX (16,7) [] b (21,) [-8] (119,) [+3]? A@ GsWX (34,) [] GqWX (11,8) [-16] GqWX (2,3) [] (1,9) [] (11,7) [-5] (5,9) [-4] (11,2) [-15] (2,8) [+5] (3,) [+5] (11,) [-5] (6,1) [+4] (5,8) [] (7,5) [] (34,) []?öa@ (4,1) [+3] (25,) [-17] (18,3) (6,2) [-31] [+5] (15,5) [+22] (17,5) [+17] (17,) [+8] GoWX (1,) [] (2,) [+1] (27,5) [+9] (2,) [] (16,6) [+8] GnWX (9,6) [] (3,8) [] (8,1) [] (5,7) [] GiWX GuWX?öA@ (5,9) [] Under Capacity Approaching Capacity Over Capacity New Roadway [ 1 2 Miles Copyright: 213 Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ Year 23 Alternative 1 Daily Traffic Forecasts Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project Washington County Figure 7

(53,) [-7]?ÇA@ (9,1) [] (61,) [] (24,) [+14] (33,) [+27] (48,) [] (#,###) - 23 No Build AADT [###] - Delta Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Study Corridor J:\Maps\8141\mxd\Figure8_ForecastAlternative2.mxd (86,) [-7] (9,) [-12] %h GlWX (16,7) [-7] b (21,) [-5] (119,) [+9]? A@ GsWX (34,) [] (5,9) [-3] GqWX (11,8) [-17] (11,) [-24] GqWX (11,2) [-22] (3,) [] (1,9) [+3] (11,7) [-19] (4,1) [-6] (25,) [+59] (18,3) (2,3) [-16] [+3] (2,8) [] (6,1) [+8] (5,8) [] (7,5) [-3] (17,5) [+93] (17,) [+12] (34,) []?öa@ (6,2) [+13] (15,5) [+93] GoWX (2,) [+49] (27,5) [+47] (2,) [] (16,6) [+13] (1,) [-21] GnWX (9,6) [-18] (3,8) [-4] (8,1) [-18] (5,7) [-15] GiWX GuWX?öA@ Under Capacity Approaching Capacity Over Capacity (5,9) [-11] [ 1 2 Miles Copyright: 213 Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ Year 23 Alternative 2 Daily Traffic Forecasts Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project Washington County Figure 8

(53,) [-6]?ÇA@ (9,1) [] (61,) [] (24,) [+12] (33,) [+24] (48,) [] (#,###) - 23 No Build AADT [###] - Delta Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Study Corridor J:\Maps\8141\mxd\Figure9_ForecastAlternative3.mxd (86,) [] (9,) [-19] %h GlWX (16,7) [-9] b (21,) [-15] (119,) [+15]? A@ GsWX (34,) [] GqWX (11,2) [-34] (11,8) (2,8) [-3] [+4] (3,) [+4] (11,) [-32] GqWX (11,7) [-26] (5,9) [-4] (1,9) [+4] (6,1) [+15] (7,5) [-5] (5,8) [] (34,) [+3] (4,1) [-5] (25,) [+48] (18,3) (6,2) (2,3) [-45] [+18] [+4] (15,5) [+12] (17,5) [+116] (17,) [+121]?öA@ GoWX (2,) [] (16,6) [+121] (1,) [-2] (2,) [+61] (27,5) [+59] (3,8) [-6] GnWX (9,6) [-17] (8,1) [-15] (5,7) [-14] GiWX (5,9) [-1] GuWX?öA@ Under Capacity Approaching Capacity Over Capacity New Roadway [ 1 2 Miles Copyright: 213 Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ Year 23 Alternative 3 Daily Traffic Forecasts Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project Washington County Figure 9

(53,) []?ÇA@ (9,1) [] (24,) (61,) [] [] (33,) [] (48,) [] (#,###) - 23 No Build AADT [###] - Delta Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Study Corridor Under Capacity J:\Maps\8141\mxd\Figure1_ForecastAlternative4.mxd (86,) [] (9,) [] %h GlWX (16,7) [] b (21,) [] (119,) []? A@ GsWX (34,) [] (5,9) [-5] GqWX (11,2) [-2] (11,8) [-2] GqWX (11,7) [] (4,1) [] (25,) [] (6,2) (2,3) [] [] (18,3) [+1] [+54] (2,8) [+2] (3,) [+2] (11,) [] (1,9) [] (6,1) [-5] (2,) (5,8) [+5] [+26] (7,5) [-21] (17,) [] (17,5) [-2] (16,6) [] (1,) [] (34,) []?öa@ (15,5) [-2] GoWX (27,5) [+12] (2,) [] GnWX (9,6) [] (3,8) [] (8,1) [] (5,7) [] GiWX GuWX?öA@ (5,9) [] Approaching Capacity Over Capacity New Roadway [ 1 2 Miles Copyright: 213 Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ Year 23 Alternative 4 Daily Traffic Forecasts Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project Washington County Figure 1

Manning Avenue to/from TH 5 Travel Pattern Shifts Understanding probable travel pattern shifts for the Manning Avenue to/from TH 5 movement provided a better understanding of the travel markets changes caused by each network alternative. Additionally, the travel pattern shifts were used to inform the development of peak hour volumes for a traffic operations analysis. The following summarizes the key travel pattern shifts for each alternative. Alternative 1 vs. No Build The realignment of TH 5 at Manning Avenue and CSAH 14 results in an additional 4,4 daily trips making the Manning Avenue to/from TH 5 movement compared to the No Build (see Figure 11). These are typically longer distance trips and without the realignment, most of these trips would use Lake Elmo Avenue with some on TH 5 and the north/south roadways east of Manning Avenue. A portion of these trips would then be backfilled by shorter distance trips currently using other routes. The realignment provides improved north/south continuity by creating a more direct route for north/south oriented trips; however, Manning Avenue capacity is not adequate to meet the forecast traffic demand with this alternative. Figure 11. Manning Avenue to/from TH 5 Travel Pattern Shifts - Alternative 1 vs. No Build Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project 16 SRF Consulting Group, Inc.

Alternative 2 vs. No Build The expansion of Manning Avenue from a two-lane undivided roadway to a four-lane divided roadway between TH 5 and CSAH 1 in the study area results in an additional 7,6 daily trips making the Manning Avenue to/from TH 5 movement compared to the No Build (see Figure 12). These are typically longer distance trips and without the Manning Avenue expansion, most of these trips would use Lake Elmo Avenue with some on TH 5 and the north/south roadways east of Manning Avenue. A portion of these trips would then be backfilled by shorter distance trips currently using other routes. The additional capacity on Manning Avenue is better able to meet the forecast traffic demand with this alternative; however, Manning Avenue lacks north/south continuity since it terminates into TH 5. Figure 12. Manning Avenue to/from TH 5 Travel Pattern Shifts - Alternative 2 vs. No Build Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project 17 SRF Consulting Group, Inc.

Alternative 3 vs. No Build The realignment of TH 5 and the expansion of Manning Avenue to a four-lane divided roadway between TH 5 and CSAH 1 in the study area results in an additional 12, daily trips making the Manning Avenue to/from TH 5 movement compared to the No Build (see Figure 13). These are typically longer distance trips and without the improvements, most of these trips would use Lake Elmo Avenue with some on TH 5 and the north/south roadways east of Manning Avenue. A portion of these trips would then be backfilled by shorter distance trips currently using other routes. The additional capacity on Manning Avenue is better able to meet the forecast traffic demand and the realignment of TH 5 provides improved north/south continuity with this alternative. Figure 13. Manning Avenue to/from TH 5 Travel Pattern Shifts - Alternative 3 vs. No Build Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project 18 SRF Consulting Group, Inc.

Alternative 4 vs. No Build The addition of an east/west collector between CSAH 13 and Manning Avenue and the local connection between 3th Street North and TH 5 would result in local traffic pattern shifts that would not have significant changes in regional traffic patterns compared to the No Build (see Figure 14). The east/west collector is forecasted to serve 2,6 vpd. These trips would shift from Hudson Road and CSAH 1. The local connection between 3th Street North and TH 5 is forecasted to serve 5,4 vpd. These trips would shift from Manning Avenue and Lake Elmo Avenue. Figure 14. Manning Avenue to/from TH 5 Travel Pattern Shifts - Alternative 4 vs. No Build Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project 19 SRF Consulting Group, Inc.

Alternatives Evaluation To assist with this subarea analysis, evaluation criteria were developed to compare the roadway network alternatives. The No Build represents the existing and programmed conditions. Factors such as environmental impacts, mitigation options, and right-of-way impacts were not directly included in this analysis. These will be considered as a part of the environmental documentation and development of corridor concept layouts. The following identifies the criteria developed: 1. Vehicle Miles and Vehicle Hours Traveled (VMT and VHT) 2. Safety 3. Arterial Roadway Capacity 4. Local Intersection Operations 5. System Plan Consistency Information used for this analysis was developed based on the travel demand model. Alternatives Evaluation Summary Table 3 summarizes the alternatives evaluation. As shown in Table 3, the alternatives were given a rating of good, fair, or poor based on how they compared to the No Build with respect to the evaluation criteria. A rating of good identifies a high improvement, comparatively between alternatives, over the No Build. A rating of fair indicates medium improvement over the No Build. A rating of poor indicates no improvement or a decline in service over the No Build. More details of the evaluation process are provided following Table 3. Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project 2 SRF Consulting Group, Inc.

Table 3. Alternatives Evaluation Summary Alternative Criteria 1 (VMT and VHT) Criteria 2 (Safety) Criteria 3 (Arterial Roadway Capacity) Criteria 4 (Local Intersection Operations) Criteria 5 (System Plan Consistency) 1 Poor-Fair Poor-Fair Poor Good Poor-Fair Realignment of TH 5-95 VMT (<.1%) -1 VHT (<.1%) Expected Rate = 1.3/MEV No Build = 1.31/MEV Does not provide adequate capacity on Manning Ave Improves peak hour volume imbalance at TH 5 and Manning Avenue Realignment is consistent but no Manning Ave expansion or local connections are included 2 Fair Good Fair Poor Fair Expansion of Manning Avenue to four-lane divided +1,8 VMT (.3%) -1,16 VHT (1.2%) Expected Rate =.86/MEV No Build = 1.31/MEV Provides adequate capacity on Manning Ave but minimal local roadway congestion relief Does not improve peak hour volume imbalance at TH 5 and Manning Avenue Manning Ave expansion is consistent but no realignment or local connections are included 3 Fair Good Good Good Good Realignment of TH 5 and Expansion of Manning Avenue +11,65 VMT (.4%) -1,19 VHT (1.2%) Expected Rate =.86/MEV No Build = 1.31/MEV Provides adequate capacity on Manning Ave and local roadway congestion relief Improves peak hour volume imbalance at TH 5 and Manning Avenue Realignment and Manning Ave expansion are consistent but no local connections are included 4 Poor Poor Poor Poor Poor Local Improvements Negligible change in VMT and VHT Expected Rate = 1.31/MEV No Build = 1.31/MEV Does not provide adequate capacity on Manning Ave Does not improve peak hour volume imbalance at TH 5 and Manning Avenue Realignment and Manning Ave expansion are not consistent; only local connections are included

Criteria 1: Vehicle Miles and Vehicle Hours Traveled (VMT and VHT) Goal: Measure: Promotes system efficiency by minimizing VMT and VHT VMT and VHT Changes in annual vehicle operations were analyzed to assess the change in overall system efficiency as measured by VMT and VHT (see Table 4). VMT and VHT estimates for the subarea were developed using the travel demand model and the alternatives were compared to the No Build and rated based on their ability to reduce VMT and VHT (see Table 5). Table 4. Criteria 1 Summary Alternative Rating 1 Realignment of TH 5 Poor-Fair 2 Expansion of Manning Avenue to four-lane divided 3 Realignment of TH 5 and Expansion of Manning Avenue Fair Fair 4 Local Improvements Poor Alternative 1 shows a minor reduction of 95 VMT and 1 VHT over the No Build. This reduction results from improved north\south continuity of Manning Avenue. Vehicles previously required to turn from TH 5 to Manning Avenue are now provided with a continuous turn-free trip between TH 36 and I-94 resulting in shorter trip length and slightly reduced trip travel times. Alternative 2 shows an increase of 1,8 VMT and a decrease of 1,16 VHT over the No build. This VMT increase results from trips shifting to the expanded Manning Avenue mainly from the two-lane facilities of Lake Elmo Avenue and TH 5. This VHT decrease also results from trips shifting to the expanded Manning Avenue. Trips shifting to Manning Avenue experience a longer trip length but achieve reductions in trip travel time. Overall, VMT increases of less than a half percent are expected on the four-lane divided facilities such as Manning Avenue with reductions expected on the existing two-lane facilities. Similar to Alternative 2, Alternative 3 shows an increase of 11,65 VMT and a decrease of 1,19 VHT over the No Build. Alternative 3 VMT and VHT increases exceed the sum of VMT in Alternatives 1 and 2 due to system synergies resulting from implementation of both the expansion and realignment improvements. Alternative 4 shows no significant change in VMT or VHT since the local roadway improvements only provide localized travel patterns shifts. Table 5. VMT and VHT Analysis Alternative VMT (Change from No Build) VHT (Change from No Build) 1 Realignment of TH 5 3,175,15 (-95) 95,85 (-1) 2 Expansion of Manning Avenue to four-lane divided 3 Realignment of TH 5 and Expansion of Manning Avenue 3,186,9 (+1,8) 94,7 (-1,16) 3,187,75 (+11,65) 94,67 (-1,19)

Criteria 2: Safety Goal: Measure: Improve the overall safety of the corridor Expected Crash Rate Changes in expected crash rates with respect to crash reductions by facility type were analyzed to assess the change in the overall safety of the corridor (see Table 6). Future expected crash rates assuming no improvements to the corridor were determined for the existing two-lane and four-lane segments of the corridor. Future expected crash rates were also determined assuming the alternative improvements. The expected crash reductions were obtained from the FHWA Desktop Reference for Crash Reduction Factors assuming the installation of a median and the installation of an additional lane (see Table 7). The alternatives were rated based on their expected crash rates following the improvements. Table 6. Criteria 2 Summary Alternative Rating 1 Realignment of TH 5 Poor-Fair 2 Expansion of Manning Avenue to four-lane divided 3 Realignment of TH 5 and Expansion of Manning Avenue Good Good 4 Local Improvements Poor Alternatives 1 and 4 are not expected to have a significant reduction in the expected crash rate compared to the No Build given no improvements are assumed along Manning Avenue and minimal traffic volumes shifts are expected with these alternatives. Alternatives 2 and 3 are expected to have a reduction in the expected crash rates compared to the No Build due to the improvements associated with these alternatives. Although these alternatives are expected to attract higher volumes to Manning Avenue, the crash rates are expected to be the lowest compared to the other alternatives. Improved safety of the corridor will also be achieved by enhancing alignments, profiles, and geometrics while considering alternative intersection control types.

Table 7. Segment Crash Analysis Existing Two-lane Section Data No Build Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Alternative 4 Average AADT 16,65 18,25 26,425 28,6 15,65 Segment Length (mi) 3.44 3.44 3.44 3.44 3.44 VMT (5-year) 14,528,7 113,16,95 165,896,15 179,55,8 98,25,7 Existing Crash Rate 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 Future Expected Crashes (existing rate) 123 134 196 212 116 Crash Reduction Percentage (addition of lane and median) % % 55% 55% % Future Expected Crashes (new rate) 123 134 18 117 116 Existing Four-lane Section Average AADT 23,75 24,7 28,55 29,75 24,6 Segment Length (mi).85.85.85.85.85 VMT (5-year) 36,842,188 38,315,875 44,288,188 46,149,688 38,16,75 Existing Crash Rate 1.66 1.66 1.66 1.66 1.66 Future Expected Crashes (existing rate) 61 64 74 77 63 Future Expected Crashes (new rate) 61 64 74 77 63 Entire Corridor Total Future Expected Crashes 185 197 181 193 179 Total VMT (5-year) 141,37,888 151,476,825 21,184,338 225,7,488 136,411,45 Total Future Expected Crash Rate 1.31 1.3.86.86 1.31

Criteria 3: Arterial Roadway Capacity Goal: Measure: Improve arterial roadway capacity Daily Volumes and Volume-to-Capacity Ratio (V/C) Changes in daily volumes were analyzed to assess the change in overall system efficiency (see Table 8) as measured by volume shifts by facility type (see Table 9) and the volume-to-capacity of the facility (see Figure 15). Green depicts roadways expected to be under capacity in year 23; yellow depicts roadways expected to be approaching capacity; and, red depicts roadways that are expected to be over capacity. Daily volume forecasts for the subarea were developed using the travel demand model and the alternatives were compared to the No Build and rated based on their ability to balance volumes in the network without overloading roadways in Lake Elmo, Baytown Township, and West Lakeland Township. Table 8. Criteria 3 Summary Alternative Rating 1 Realignment of TH 5 Poor 2 Expansion of Manning Avenue to four-lane divided 3 Realignment of TH 5 and Expansion of Manning Avenue Fair Good 4 Local Improvements Poor Alternative 1 is expected to have a net increase in daily volume ranging from 8 to 2,2 vpd along Manning Avenue in the study area compared to the No Build; however, Manning Avenue capacity is not adequate to meet the forecast traffic demand with this alternative. Alternative 2 is expected to have a net increase in daily volume ranging from 4,7 to 1,3 vpd along Manning Avenue in the study area compared to the No Build and the additional capacity on Manning Avenue is better able to meet the forecast traffic demand; however, Manning Avenue lacks north/south continuity since it terminates into TH 5. Alternative 3 is expected to have a net increase in daily volume ranging from 5,9 to 12,1 vpd along Manning Avenue in the study area compared to the No Build. The additional capacity on Manning Avenue is better able to meet the forecast traffic demand and the realignment of TH 5 provides improved north/south continuity. Also, Alternative 3 is also expected to provide the most congestion relief to the local roadway system compared to the other alternatives. The addition of an east/west collector between CSAH 13 and Manning Avenue and the local connection between 3th Street North and TH 5 would result in local traffic pattern shifts only for Alternative 4. Theses shifts would not have a significant impact on regional traffic patterns compared to the No Build. The east/west collector is forecasted to serve 2,6 vpd. These trips would shift from Hudson Road and CSAH 1. The local connection between 3th Street North and TH 5 is forecasted to serve 5,4 vpd. These trips would shift from Manning Avenue and Lake Elmo Avenue. As a result, Alternative 4 is expected to only provide localized congestion relief.

Table 9. Arterial Roadway Daily Volumes Location Existing No Build Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Alternative 4 TH 5 (east of Manning Avenue) 16,8 25, 23,3 3,9 29,8 25, TH 5 (west of Manning Avenue) 11,5 18,3 15,2 16,7 13,8 19,3 Manning Avenue (south of CSAH 14) 1,45 15,5 17,7 24,8 27,5 13,5 Manning Avenue (south of CSAH 1) 11,87 2, 21, 24,9 26,1 2,5 CSAH 14 (east of Manning Avenue) 3,7 6,2 6,7 7,5 8, 6,2 CSAH 17 (north of CSAH 1) 4,1 11,8 1,2 1,1 8,8 9,8 CSAH 17 (south of CSAH 1) 3,45 5,9 5,5 5,6 5,5 5,4 CSAH 1 (west of Manning Avenue) 4,3 6,1 6,5 6,9 7,6 5,6 CSAH 1 (east of Manning Avenue) 5,2 1, 1, 7,9 8, 1, CSAH 65 (east of Manning Avenue) 2,8 8,1 8,1 6,3 6,6 8,1 CSAH 21 (east of Manning Avenue) 2,85 5,9 5,9 4,8 4,9 5,9 Figure 15. Volume-to-Capacity Summary Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Alternative 4

Criteria 4: Local Intersection Operations Goal: Improve local road system continuity and connectivity Measure: Turning movement balance at Manning Avenue and TH 5 Traffic pattern changes expected with respect to turning movement volumes (see Figure 16) were analyzed to assess the change in overall intersection balance (see Table 1). Peak hour turning movement volume forecasts were developed based on existing turning movement volumes and the daily volume forecasts. The alternatives were rated based on their ability to balance volumes at the Manning Avenue and TH 5 intersection to provide an intersection that would meet driver expectations. Table 1. Criteria 4 Summary Alternative Rating 1 Realignment of TH 5 Good 2 Expansion of Manning Avenue to four-lane divided 3 Realignment of TH 5 and Expansion of Manning Avenue Poor Good 4 Local Improvements Poor Alternatives 1 and 3, which include the realignment of TH 5 at Manning Avenue and CSAH 14, would improve the peak hour turn imbalance at Manning Avenue and TH 5 by converting the TH 5 to Manning Avenue left-turn movement to a thru movement and the Manning Avenue to TH 5 right-turn movement to a thru movement. Alternatives 2 and 4, which do not include the realignment, would not improve volume imbalance. Figure 16 graphically summarizes the daily and peak hour forecasted volumes for both Alternatives 2 and 3. These volumes represent how the traffic volumes would be redistributed with Alternative 3. Figure 16. Year 23 Daily and Peak Hour Forecast Volumes Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Legend: X,XXX XX (XX) Daily Volumes A.M. Peak Hour P.M. Peak Hour

Criteria 5: System Plan Consistency Goal: Measure: Provide consistency with local transportation plans Consistent or Not Consistent A general comparison was made with respect to how the alternatives maintain consistency with the local transportation plans (see Table 11). This includes plans for Washington County, Lake Elmo, Baytown Township, and West Lakeland Township. The alternatives were rated based on their ability to provide consistency with the plans. Table 11. Criteria 5 Summary Alternative Rating 1 Realignment of TH 5 Poor-Fair 2 Expansion of Manning Avenue to four-lane divided 3 Realignment of TH 5 and Expansion of Manning Avenue Fair Good 4 Local Improvements Poor The following current edition plans were reviewed: Washington County Year 23 Comprehensive Plan City of Lake Elmo Year 23 Comprehensive Transportation Plan City of Lake Elmo Draft Village Area Comprehensive Plan Amendment Baytown Township Year 23 Comprehensive Plan Update Comprehensive Plan for West Lakeland Township Alternative 1, which includes only the realignment of TH 5 at Manning Avenue and CSAH 14, is consistent with local transportation plans; however, this alternative does not include the Manning Avenue capacity expansion. Also, Alternative 1 does not include any additional local roadway connections. Alternative 2, which includes only the expansion of Manning Avenue to a four-lane roadway, is consistent with local transportation plans; however, this alternative does not include the realignment of TH 5 at Manning Avenue and CSAH 14. Also, Alternative 2 does not include any additional local roadway connections. Alternative 3, which includes both the realignment of TH 5 and the expansion of Manning Avenue to a four-lane roadway, is consistent with local transportation plans. Additionally, Alternative 3 does not include any additional local roadway connections. Alternative 4 includes additional local roadway connections but does not include the realignment of TH 5 and the expansion of Manning Avenue to a four-lane roadway.

Selection of Preferred Alternative Based on the Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project Subarea Study findings and results, the project team recommends Alternative 3 as the preferred roadway network alternative. Alternative 3 includes both the realignment of TH 5 at Manning Avenue and CSAH 14 and the expansion of Manning Avenue to a four-lane divided roadway between TH 5 and CSAH 1 in the study area. This recommendation is based on the following: The realignment and capacity expansion is expected to provide the highest reduction in vehicle hours traveled network-wide thereby improving the efficiency of the subarea. The realignment and capacity expansion is expected to have the highest reduction in crash rates compared to the No Build due to the improvements associated with these alternatives. Although these alternatives are expected to attract higher volumes to Manning Avenue, the crash rates are expected to be the lowest compared to the other alternatives. Manning Avenue cannot function with future growth under near- and long-term conditions without upgrading Manning Avenue to a four-lane roadway. Volumes shift from the local roadways to Manning Avenue because of the realignment and capacity expansion. The shift in volumes is expected to provide the most congestion relief to the local roadway system compared to the other alternatives. The realignment improves north/south continuity thereby developing Manning Avenue as a north-south arterial in Washington County from I-94 to TH 36. The realignment also would improve the volume imbalance at Manning Avenue and TH 5 by converting the TH 5 to Manning Avenue left-turn movement to a thru movement and the Manning Avenue to TH 5 right-turn movement to a thru movement. The realignment of TH 5 and the expansion of Manning Avenue to a four-lane roadway are consistent with local transportation plans. Downtown Lake Elmo will experience increased traffic volumes over existing conditions regardless of the alternative; however, as previously noted the realignment of TH 5 and the expansion of Manning Avenue to a four-lane roadway is expected to provide the most congestion relief to the local roadway system compared to the other build alternatives. Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project 29 SRF Consulting Group, Inc.

Appendix Socioeconomic Data (SE Data) for Traffic Forecasts

14 16 17 18 19 2 1274 13 1128 15 21 22 32 23 33 24 51 73 1231 25 26 123 27 28 31 34 36 37 29 38 1129 4 3 39 45 42 1115 41 46 66 Baytown Twp. 67 71 52 Lake Elmo 49 43 44 47 48 1196 53 68 1195 5 1116 1228 69 72 54 7 West Lakeland Twp. 65 1273 Q:\Projects\8141\GIS\TAZ\TAZ_61113.mxd 55 56 58 1118 59 6 1117 1229 61 62 57 63 64 1114 Legend Municipal Boundary Manning Avenue Subarea TAZ Washington County TAZ CSAH 15 Subarea TAZ Boundaries Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project Washington County

Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project Socioeconomic Data Lake Elmo 21 21 to 23 Growth 23 Manning Metropolitan Avenue Washington Retail Non-retail Council Households Subarea County TAZ Employment Employment Households Retail Non-retail Employment Employment Households Retail Employment TAZ TAZ Non-retail Employment 42 1115 1115 27 33 92-63 26 27 96 118 43 1115 1115 1 - - - - - 1 - - 44 1115 1115 85-1 5 - - 9-1 45 1115 1115 32 63 97 337 12 191 369 183 288 46 1115 1115 4 - - 9 1 264 94 1 264 47 1115 1115 6 - - 142-1 22-1 48 1115 1115 5 - - 219 19 12 224 19 12 53 1228 1115 2 - - 89 - - 289 - - 54 1228 1115 58-6 59-2 117-62 49 1116 1116 2 - - - - - 2 - - 5 1116 1116 3-12 561 - - 861-12 52 1116 1116 17 5 7 37-78 54 5 148 59 1117 1117 16-1 599 - - 615-1 6 1117 1117 451 16 1 399 - - 85 16 1 61 1117 1117 21 - - 263 384 1,281 284 384 1,281 62 1117 1117 2-1 814 66 4,246 816 66 4,346 58 1118 1118 62 - - 169 - - 231 - - 55 1229 1118 - - - 464 66 13 464 66 13 56 1229 1118-1 484-3 1,5-4 1,984 57 1229 1118 2 5 5 668 252 2,18 67 32 2,23 13 (1) 1128 1128 449 - - 1 - - 459 - - 14 1128 1128 86 - - 39 - - 125 - - 15 1128 1128 19 - - 59 - - 249 - - 36 1129 1129 5 - - - - - 5 - - 37 1129 1129 - - - 172 94 7 172 94 7 38 1129 1129 - - - - - - - - - 39 1129 1129 - - - - - - - - - 4 1129 1129-43 446-226 287-269 733 41 1129 1129 2 - - - - - 2 - - 25 123 1129 158 - - 196 - - 354 - - 26 123 1129 5-2 13 - - 153-2 27 123 1129 72 - - 52 - - 124 - - 28 123 1129 31 - - 8 - - 39 - - 29 123 1129 - - - - - - - - - 3 123 1129 - - - - - - - - - 31 123 1129 3 - - - - - 3 - - 32 123 1129 9 - - 32 - - 41 - - 33 123 1129 137 - - 32 - - 169 - - 34 123 1129 1 - - - - - 1 - - 16 1274 1197 3-5 3-18 6-23 17 1274 1197 4-5 37-5 41-1 18 1274 1197 8-1 41-5 49-15 19 1274 1197 7 - - 16 - - 23 - - 2 1274 1197 5 - - 25 - - 3 - - 21 1274 1197 1 - - 7 - - 8 - - 22 1274 1197 27 - - 7 - - 34 - - 23 1274 1197 12 - - 78 - - 9 - - 24 1274 1197 144-6 56 - - 2-6 Lake Elmo City Total (1) Only includes part of TAZ within city limits 2,776 31 1,631 5,951 1,69 1,369 8,727 2, 12,

Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project Socioeconomic Data Baytown Township 21 21 to 23 Growth 23 Manning Metropolitan Avenue Washington Retail Non-retail Council Households Subarea County TAZ Employment Employment Households Retail Non-retail Employment Employment Households Retail Employment TAZ TAZ Non-retail Employment 51 1231 113 139 - - 1 - - 149 - - 73 1231 113 26 - - 87 - - 293 - - 66 1195 1195 8 - - - - - 8 - - 67 1195 1195 6-3 15-1 75-4 71 (1) 1196 1196 16-39 75-41 235-8 Baytown Township Total (1) Only includes part of TAZ within city limits 573-69 187-51 76-12

Manning Avenue (CSAH 15) Corridor Management and Safety Improvement Project Socioeconomic Data West Lakeland Township 21 21 to 23 Growth 23 Manning Metropolitan Avenue Washington Retail Non-retail Council Households Subarea County TAZ Employment Employment Households Retail Non-retail Employment Employment Households Retail Employment TAZ TAZ Non-retail Employment 63 1114 1114 97 18-21 32 36 118 5 36 64 1114 1114 183-78 39 - - 222-78 68 1195 1195 88-11 7 - - 158-11 69 1195 1195 254-11 24 - - 278-11 7 1195 1195 169-1 7 - - 239-1 72 1196 1196 464 7 79 - - - 464 7 79 65 1273 1196 31 18 - - - - 31 18 - West Lakeland Township Total 1,286 43 189 224 32 36 1,51 75 225