The PRINCOMP Procedure

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Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 1 Food production variables The PRINCOMP Procedure Observations 16 Variables 4 Simple Statistics PRECIP ndvi aet temp Mean 260.8102476 108.5822125 352.1451053 0.582837500 StD 125.8351949 15.0809141 53.8785730 2.113794091 Correlation Matrix PRECIP ndvi aet temp PRECIP 1.0000 -.1667 0.3546 0.8087 ndvi -.1667 1.0000 0.4094 0.2712 aet 0.3546 0.4094 1.0000 0.6657 temp 0.8087 0.2712 0.6657 1.0000 Eigenvalues of the Correlation Matrix Eigenvalue Difference Proportion Cumulative 1 2.30730350 1.08471241 0.5768 0.5768 2 1.22259109 0.82203954 0.3056 0.8825 3 0.40055154 0.33099767 0.1001 0.9826 4 0.06955387 0.0174 1.0000

Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 2 Food production variables The PRINCOMP Procedure Eigenvectors foodprod1 foodprod2 foodprod3 foodprod4 PRECIP 0.507481 -.530240 0.300866 0.608924 ndvi 0.234118 0.790830 0.511706 0.240694 aet 0.534012 0.285842 -.773623 0.186100 temp 0.634416 -.108295 0.221685 -.732560

Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci First 2 principal components scores 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 3 2 Tweedsmuir Grid - 2007 Grid - 2005 1 Kimdean Grid - 2006 N Grid - 2004 Second component for productivity score 0-1 Gmu 9b Taku South Coast Khutzeymateen Owikeno Kingcome Stikine Unuk-Bradfield -2 Berners Bay -3-3 -2-1 0 1 2 3 First component for productivity score

Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci Plot of density_corrected vs first food production principal component score 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 4 90 Khutzeymateen 80 70 Berners Bay 60 Taku Grizzly Bear Density 50 40 Gmu 9b Stikine Kimdean Unuk-Bradfield Kingcome 30 20 Grid - 2006 N Grid - 2007 Tweedsmuir Grid - 2004 Owikeno 10 South Coast Mid Coast Mainlan Grid - 2005 0-3 -2-1 0 1 2 3 First component for productivity score

Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci Plot of density_corrected vs first food production principal component score 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 5 90 Khutzeymateen 80 70 Berners Bay 60 Taku Grizzly Bear Density 50 40 Stikine Unuk-Bradfield Gmu 9b Kingcome Kimdean 30 20 10 0 Owikeno Grid - 2006 N Grid - 2004 South Coast Mid Coast Mainlan Grid - 2007 Grid - 2005 Tweedsmuir -3-2 -1 0 1 2 Second component for productivity score

Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 6 Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs model n _p aicc_ delta_aicc aicc_weight 1 Temp_T25_salmon 16 5 173.4 0.0 0.376 2 NDVI_salmon 16 4 174.2 0.8 0.254 3 T25_salmon 16 4 175.5 2.1 0.133 4 Temp_T25_salmon_Hum 16 6 177.4 4.0 0.050 5 NDVI_T25_salmon 16 5 177.7 4.3 0.044 6 Temp_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 16 7 177.9 4.5 0.040 7 T25 16 3 178.1 4.7 0.035 8 AET_T25_salmon 16 5 178.3 4.9 0.033 9 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_salmon_Hum_Live 16 8 180.5 7.0 0.011 10 NDVI_T25 16 4 181.7 8.3 0.006 11 AET_T25_salmon_Hum 16 6 182.9 9.5 0.003 12 NDVI_H50_T25_salmon 16 6 183.0 9.6 0.003 13 Prcp_Temp_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 16 8 183.3 9.9 0.003 14 H50_T25_salmon_Hum 16 6 183.8 10.4 0.002 15 NDVI_Temp_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 16 8 184.2 10.8 0.002 16 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25 16 6 184.5 11.1 0.001 17 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_salmon_Hum 16 7 185.7 12.3 0.001 18 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 16 9 185.8 12.4 0.001 19 Prcp_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum 16 8 185.9 12.5 0.001 20 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_I1 16 7 188.6 15.1 0.000 21 AET_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 16 7 189.0 15.6 0.000 22 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon 16 8 189.4 16.0 0.000 23 Prcp_NDVI_AET_salmon_Hum 16 7 189.4 16.0 0.000 24 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_T25_salmon_Hum 16 8 189.5 16.1 0.000 25 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_salmon_Hum_Live 16 9 189.7 16.3 0.000

Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 7 Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs model n _p aicc_ delta_aicc aicc_weight 26 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum 16 7 189.8 16.4 0.000 27 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_Hum 16 8 190.2 16.8 0.000 28 H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 16 7 190.2 16.8 0.000 29 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Live 16 9 192.2 18.8 0.000 30 NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum 16 8 192.4 19.0 0.000 31 Prcp_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 16 9 192.9 19.5 0.000 32 NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 16 9 193.8 20.4 0.000 33 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum_I1 16 8 194.0 20.6 0.000 34 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_LHum_Live 16 10 194.3 20.8 0.000 35 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_salmon_Hum 16 8 194.3 20.9 0.000 36 Prcp_AET_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 16 8 194.6 21.2 0.000 37 Prcp_NDVI_AET_salmon_Hum_Live 16 8 195.1 21.7 0.000 38 NDVI_AET_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 16 8 195.2 21.8 0.000 39 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_salmon_Hum 16 8 196.3 22.9 0.000 40 Prcp_NDVI_AET_T25_salmon_Hum 16 8 196.3 22.9 0.000 41 Prcp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum 16 8 196.4 23.0 0.000 42 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum 16 9 197.0 23.5 0.000 43 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon 16 8 197.0 23.6 0.000 44 NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum 16 8 197.1 23.7 0.000 45 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum_Live 16 8 197.2 23.8 0.000 46 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_LHum 16 9 197.7 24.3 0.000 47 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_salmon_Hum 16 8 197.8 24.4 0.000 48 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_Hum 16 8 198.3 24.9 0.000 49 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_Hum_Live 16 9 198.3 24.9 0.000 50 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_Salmon_Hum_Live 16 10 201.7 28.3 0.000

Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 8 Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs model n _p aicc_ delta_aicc aicc_weight 51 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 16 10 201.7 28.3 0.000 52 GLOBAL_Prcp_NDVI_Temp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum 16 10 201.9 28.5 0.000 53 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_salmon_Hum_Live 16 9 202.1 28.7 0.000 54 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Live 16 9 203.0 29.6 0.000 55 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 16 9 204.5 31.1 0.000 56 Prcp_NDVI_AET_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 16 9 204.9 31.5 0.000 57 Prcp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 16 9 205.4 32.0 0.000 58 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum_Live_I1 16 9 205.4 32.0 0.000 59 NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 16 9 205.8 32.4 0.000 60 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_Hum_Live 16 9 206.8 33.4 0.000 61 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum 16 9 206.9 33.5 0.000 62 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum 16 9 207.7 34.3 0.000 63 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_LHum_LLive 16 10 212.3 38.8 0.000 64 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum_Live 16 10 213.7 40.3 0.000 65 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum_LLive 16 10 214.6 41.2 0.000 66 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_Salmon_Hum_Live 16 10 218.1 44.7 0.000 67 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 16 10 218.1 44.7 0.000

Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 9 Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs Intercept PRECIP ndvi temp aet herb50 tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma 1 70.927.. 3.3714.. -1.07750 26.8863. 10.1496 2 104.966. -0.92353.... 60.0843. 11.4692 3 53.231..... -0.85564 41.7635. 11.8284 4 74.394.. 3.4671.. -1.02458 19.9020-10.8866 9.8408 5 89.836. -0.59661... -0.35191 51.7769. 11.2406 6 77.763.. 6.3317.. -1.33751 33.4985-13.9665 8.4885 7 81.874..... -1.07796.. 13.7284 8 38.481... 0.07317. -1.00088 35.3123. 11.3968 9 221.612-0.13744-1.86191 11.7657... 85.5070-17.9135 7.3629 10 86.971. -0.06996... -1.02514.. 13.7202 11 40.841... 0.07390. -0.95225 29.7014-9.2032 11.2007 Obs model livestock_den log_hum_den log_livestock_den ISti aicc_weight 1 Temp_T25_salmon.... 0.376 2 NDVI_salmon.... 0.254 3 T25_salmon.... 0.133 4 Temp_T25_salmon_Hum.... 0.050 5 NDVI_T25_salmon.... 0.044 6 Temp_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 32.7226... 0.040 7 T25.... 0.035 8 AET_T25_salmon.... 0.033 9 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_salmon_Hum_Live 52.8125... 0.011 10 NDVI_T25.... 0.006 11 AET_T25_salmon_Hum.... 0.003

Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 10 Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs Intercept PRECIP ndvi temp aet herb50 tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma 12 93.972. -0.55664.. -0.11416-0.43448 54.5097. 11.2243 13 107.431-0.07489. 10.4199.. -1.54005 28.1509-16.0835 7.8718 14 78.157.... -0.38447-0.96541 47.1695-10.0491 11.4405 15 108.995. -0.59661 5.9859.. -0.85188 53.0281-13.6761 8.0403 16 23.987 0.06170 0.12505.. 0.44143-0.89368.. 11.6279 17 166.884-0.10253-1.20151 6.3899... 49.5448-13.6349 10.2185 18 188.193-0.12918-1.13198 12.7274.. -0.76544 61.3289-17.0669 6.3714 19 183.707-0.15036. 11.2658. -0.89545-1.77943 37.2058-17.4160 8.3815 20 56.303 0.06551 0.23668.. 0.00729-1.36135.. 10.9356 21 28.457... 0.11463. -1.07870 35.4914-9.8453 11.0616 22 172.734-0.13193-0.29055 9.6890. -0.65374-1.43468 48.7819. 9.1103 Obs model livestock_den log_hum_den log_livestock_den ISti aicc_weight 12 NDVI_H50_T25_salmon.... 0.003 13 Prcp_Temp_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 32.1949... 0.003 14 H50_T25_salmon_Hum.... 0.002 15 NDVI_Temp_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 41.8255... 0.002 16 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25.... 0.001 17 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_salmon_Hum.... 0.001 18 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 49.0839... 0.001 19 Prcp_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum.... 0.001 20 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_I1... -29.5848 0.000 21 AET_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 11.3778... 0.000 22 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon.... 0.000

Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 11 Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs Intercept PRECIP ndvi temp aet herb50 tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma 23 104.826 0.01853-0.80597. -0.03062.. 51.3260-9.7286 11.1688 24 130.308-0.09536-0.35588 8.0497.. -0.94727 22.7655-12.9609 9.1203 25 181.290-0.10623-1.71514 11.2424. 0.43886. 70.9698-16.0483 6.9901 26 35.031 0.05731 0.11114.. 0.30388-0.85887. -12.2995 11.2721 27 151.009-0.11843 0.12484 10.6282. -0.38529-1.70842. -20.5269 9.2801 28 81.023.... -0.39935-0.94961 43.1024-9.8393 11.3796 29 169.034-0.10814-1.12584 11.2837. 0.09298-0.73339 69.0478. 7.4150 30 83.715. 0.04802 3.4401. -0.21214-1.15077 25.1732-11.4953 9.7761 31 155.071-0.11990. 12.0553. -0.54863-1.81274 39.4061-18.1383 7.5473 32 98.808. -0.93906 6.5625. 0.51741-0.43076 50.5917-12.7714 7.7067 33 81.674 0.06013 0.24771.. -0.31764-1.44212. -18.0983 10.1583 Obs model livestock_den log_hum_den log_livestock_den ISti aicc_weight 23 Prcp_NDVI_AET_salmon_Hum.... 0.000 24 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_T25_salmon_Hum.... 0.000 25 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_salmon_Hum_Live 58.7448... 0.000 26 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum.... 0.000 27 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_Hum.... 0.000 28 H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live -5.4013... 0.000 29 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Live 46.7401... 0.000 30 NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum.... 0.000 31 Prcp_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 26.0036... 0.000 32 NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 52.5904... 0.000 33 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum_I1... -37.9344 0.000

Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 12 Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs Intercept PRECIP ndvi temp aet herb50 tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma 34 170.075-0.11641-1.23637 12.4674. 0.09350-0.66588 64.2200. 5.3279 35 169.122-0.10422-1.21215 6.4442. -0.02114. 50.4395-13.7478 10.2179 36 29.369 0.05407.. 0.06378. -1.05969 38.4913-10.2621 10.2916 37 98.908 0.02989-1.12484. 0.03632.. 73.5398-10.9468 10.4344 38 73.974. -0.79518. 0.10509. -0.44723 61.3445-9.7470 10.4379 39 67.804 0.03257-0.19863.. -0.05483-0.68529 35.0289-9.0099 10.7229 40 63.579 0.03181-0.20271. 0.00669. -0.67188 33.1020-8.8739 10.7245 41 54.911 0.03646.. 0.01062-0.08501-0.88815 30.7336-9.3014 10.7568 42 197.889-0.15961-0.24537 11.3263. -0.86031-1.55627 41.9654-17.1263 8.3042 43 62.972 0.03134-0.22282. 0.00515-0.00380-0.70142 39.1263. 10.9144 44 79.613. -0.39525. 0.04011-0.13394-0.60915 43.3529-9.1281 10.9380 Obs model livestock_den log_hum_den log_livestock_den ISti aicc_weight 34 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_LHum_Live 60.5591-3.93254.. 0.000 35 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_salmon_Hum.... 0.000 36 Prcp_AET_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 22.0708... 0.000 37 Prcp_NDVI_AET_salmon_Hum_Live 30.1331... 0.000 38 NDVI_AET_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 24.8969... 0.000 39 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_salmon_Hum.... 0.000 40 Prcp_NDVI_AET_T25_salmon_Hum.... 0.000 41 Prcp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum.... 0.000 42 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum.... 0.000 43 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon.... 0.000 44 NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum.... 0.000

Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 13 Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs Intercept PRECIP ndvi temp aet herb50 tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma 45 16.611 0.08710-0.19350.. 0.79178-0.52154. -12.7375 10.9586 46 174.080-0.14158-0.20452 10.1380. -0.79261-1.52284 41.9600. 8.4529 47 87.971 0.02363-0.74216. -0.02415 0.20382. 42.5934-8.9908 11.1067 48 30.168 0.04999 0.12314. 0.02688 0.28657-0.92177. -12.2307 11.2377 49 134.874-0.09144-0.28684 11.4365. 0.22329-1.31601. -21.7460 8.5769 50 194.618-0.13611-1.08762 12.9661. -0.11044-0.85069 62.2945-17.4420 6.3580 51 194.618-0.13611-1.08762 12.9661. -0.11044-0.85069 62.2945-17.4420 6.3580 52 333.125-0.23470-0.49128 18.6224-0.21405-1.38060-1.54911 60.0296-21.6254 6.3867 53 11.186 0.06486-1.09411. 0.12711 0.99756. 50.4162-8.4115 9.3858 54 7.448 0.06537-1.10229. 0.12669 1.03479-0.02444 54.3264. 9.5769 55 51.415 0.07063-0.81808.. 0.58760-0.06866 49.3569-8.3727 9.9380 Obs model livestock_den log_hum_den log_livestock_den ISti aicc_weight 45 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum_Live 21.6247... 0.000 46 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_LHum. -2.47952.. 0.000 47 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_salmon_Hum.... 0.000 48 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_Hum.... 0.000 49 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_Hum_Live 29.2968... 0.000 50 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_Salmon_Hum_Live 47.1758... 0.000 51 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 47.1758... 0.000 52 GLOBAL_Prcp_NDVI_Temp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum.... 0.000 53 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_salmon_Hum_Live 56.7436... 0.000 54 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Live 56.6922... 0.000 55 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 34.9775... 0.000

Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 14 Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs Intercept PRECIP ndvi temp aet herb50 tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma 56 60.538 0.04188-0.54811. 0.06867. -0.62872 55.6350-10.1004 10.0191 57-3.101 0.06821.. 0.08585 0.40198-0.98160 29.5082-9.6334 10.1490 58 86.422 0.05602 0.29735.. -0.41547-1.51674. -18.2997 10.1537 59 52.340. -1.12936. 0.14517 0.50097-0.09073 60.0363-8.7863 10.2491 60-23.222 0.08158-0.42670. 0.12378 1.17408-0.49175. -12.8355 10.4845 61 61.656 0.03133-0.15465. -0.00237-0.09655-0.72701 33.4175. 10.5244 62 66.197 0.03105-0.19189. 0.00669-0.05479-0.70304 34.6042-9.0326 10.7208 63 117.916-0.14406 0.20914 7.6253. -0.66159-1.48973 30.3433. 8.1675 64-8.348 0.07372-1.20825. 0.14441 1.14008 0.10069 48.8166. 8.4513 65 12.752-0.06108 0.75976. -0.09077-0.20971-0.90022 14.8457. 8.6330 Obs model livestock_den log_hum_den log_livestock_den ISti aicc_weight 56 Prcp_NDVI_AET_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 28.9780... 0.000 57 Prcp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 30.5654... 0.000 58 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum_Live_I1-3.0827.. -39.6603 0.000 59 NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 37.6784... 0.000 60 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_Hum_Live 42.1014... 0.000 61 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum. -2.11018.. 0.000 62 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum.... 0.000 63 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_LHum_LLive. 0.57765-4.0939. 0.000 64 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum_Live 70.6431-3.41927.. 0.000 65 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum_LLive. 5.08831-10.1786. 0.000

Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 15 Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs Intercept PRECIP ndvi temp aet herb50 tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma 66 10.996 0.06476-1.06487. 0.12693 0.97712-0.03256 49.9628-8.4197 9.3850 67 10.996 0.06476-1.06487. 0.12693 0.97712-0.03256 49.9628-8.4197 9.3850 Obs model livestock_den log_hum_den log_livestock_den ISti aicc_weight 66 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_Salmon_Hum_Live 56.1386... 0.000 67 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live 56.1386... 0.000

Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 16 Model averaged predictions Obs Name Year Model averaged pred density 1.. 2 Berners Bay 2006 50.6635 3 Gmu 9b 2000 54.4339 4 Grid - 2004 2004 23.1551 5 Grid - 2005 2005 7.2089 6 Grid - 2006 N 2006 21.9035 7 Grid - 2007 2007 6.1981 8 Khutzeymateen 1991 57.8670 9 Kimdean 1999 37.5400 10 Kingcome 1997 42.6294 11 Mid Coast Mainland Only 2009 4.4030 12 Owikeno 1998 20.0758 13 South Coast 2004 16.6604 14 Stikine 2004 54.9807 15 Taku 2003 37.4330 16 Tweedsmuir 1993 21.1545 17 Unuk-Bradfield 2005 46.8898

Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 17 Predictions from best Tobit model - invci - Temp_T25_salmon Obs Name Type Year Bias Density_corrected temp tree25 SALMON_AVG Predicted value of Density_corrected Residual of Density_corrected 1 Berners Bay T 2006 L 64.2 0.7004 27.9875 0.3055 51.3453 12.8547 2 Gmu 9b M 2000 U 47.8-2.5858 27.7715 0.71 51.3746-3.5746 3 Grid - 2004 T 2004 U 11.5 1.6229 58.9867 0.4399 24.6673-13.1673 4 Grid - 2005 T 2005 U 3.1 1.1769 69.1284 0.2869 8.1223-5.0223 5 Grid - 2006 N T 2006 U 15.7-1.5997 48.1021 0.3055 21.9173-6.2173 6 Grid - 2007 T 2007 U 13.6-2.0093 61.5285 0.222 3.8244 9.7756 7 Khutzeymateen T 1991 H 86.6 3.0000 35.0380 0.78 64.2588 22.3412 8 Kimdean T 1999 L 43.6 0.1970 46.4423 0.64 38.7566 4.8434 9 Kingcome M 1997 U 46.6 3.4459 51.1945 0.69 45.9336 0.6664 10 Owikeno T 1998 L 20.4 2.9625 62.6548 0.29 21.2009-0.8009 11 South Coast T 2004 L 10 1.6877 58.7690 0.265 20.4179-10.4179 12 Stikine M 2004 U 39.3-2.1250 17.7584 0.37 54.5759-15.2759 13 Taku T 2003 L 57.5-0.9552 35.3403 0.3421 38.8250 18.6750 14 Tweedsmuir T 1993 L 20.1-1.3011 64.5460 0.64 14.1992 5.9008 15 Unuk-Bradfield T 2005 L 34.6 1.5643 36.8356 0.5271 50.6820-16.0820 16 Mid Coast Mainland Only M 2009 L 6.8 3.5439 86.2164 0.38 0.1931 6.6069

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 18 30 Khutzeymateen 20 Taku 10 Residual 0-10 Stikine Unuk-Bradfield -20 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Predicted Grizzly Bear Density

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 19 30 20 10 Residual 0-10 -20 0 100 200 300 400 500 Average Precipitation

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 20 30 20 10 Residual 0-10 -20-3 -2-1 0 1 2 3 4 Average Temperature

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 21 30 20 10 Residual 0-10 -20 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Proportion of pixels with >50% herb coverage

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 22 30 20 10 Residual 0-10 -20 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 Livestock density

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 23 30 20 10 Residual 0-10 -20 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Amount of salmon

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 24 30 20 10 Residual 0-10 -20 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 Human density

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 25 Normal q-q plot. Careful about points near zero The CAPABILITY Procedure Variable: Resid_Density_corrected (Residual of Density_corrected) Moments N 16 Sum Weights 16 Mean 0.69411774 Sum Observations 11.1058838 Std Deviation 11.7033992 Variance 136.969554 Skewness 0.26121881 Kurtosis -0.7605644 Uncorrected SS 2062.2521 Corrected SS 2054.54331 Coeff Variation 1686.08272 Std Error Mean 2.92584981 Basic Statistical Measures Location Variability Mean 0.69412 Std Deviation 11.70340 Median -0.06727 Variance 136.96955 Mode. Range 38.42325 Interquartile Range 16.50881 Tests for Location: Mu0=0 Test Statistic p Value Student's t t 0.237236 Pr > t 0.8157 Sign M 0 Pr >= M 1.0000 Signed Rank S 2 Pr >= S 0.9399

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 26 Normal q-q plot. Careful about points near zero The CAPABILITY Procedure Variable: Resid_Density_corrected (Residual of Density_corrected) Quantiles (Definition 5) Quantile Estimate 100% Max 22.3412396420 99% 22.3412396420 95% 22.3412396420 90% 18.6749508917 75% Q3 8.1912194681 50% Median -0.0672680589 25% Q1-8.3175863890 10% -15.2758608829 5% -16.0820085739 1% -16.0820085739 0% Min -16.0820085739 Extreme Observations Lowest Highest Value Obs Value Obs -16.08200857 15 6.60686357 16-15.27586088 12 9.77557537 6-13.16725009 3 12.85469784 1-10.41786524 11 18.67495089 13-6.21730754 5 22.34123964 7

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Normal q-q plot. Careful about points near zero 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 27 30 20 Residual of Density_corrected 10 0-10 -20-2 -1 0 1 2 Normal Quantiles

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Observed vs predicted for best model fitted using the tobit model - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 28 200 150 Observed corrected density 100 Khutzeymateen 50 Taku Stikine Unuk-Bradfield 0 0 50 100 150 200 Predicted Grizzly Bear Density

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Observed vs predicted for best model fitted using the tobit model - invci - ci from observed overlaid temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 29 200 150 Observed corrected density 100 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 Predicted Grizzly Bear Density

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Observed vs predicted for best model fitted using the tobit model - invci - ci on predicted overlaid temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 30 200 150 Observed corrected density 100 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 Predicted Grizzly Bear Density

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 31 Best model predictions and prediction limits - data used in fitting - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg Obs NAME Density_corrected MY_PRED MY_PRED_SEP MY_LCL MY_UCL 1 Berners Bay 64.2 51.3453 11.7401 27.8651 74.8255 2 Gmu 9b 47.8 51.3746 11.4147 28.5451 74.2040 3 Grid - 2004 11.5 24.6673 10.5982 3.4709 45.8636 4 Grid - 2005 3.1 8.1223 10.8015-13.4808 29.7254 5 Grid - 2006 N 15.7 21.9173 10.5720 0.7733 43.0613 6 Grid - 2007 13.6 3.8244 10.9121-17.9998 25.6486 7 Khutzeymateen 86.6 64.2588 11.6275 41.0038 87.5137 8 Kimdean 43.6 38.7566 10.7455 17.2656 60.2475 9 Kingcome 46.6 45.9336 11.3699 23.1939 68.6734 10 Mid Coast Mainland Only 6.8 0.1931 11.9521-23.7110 24.0973 11 Owikeno 20.4 21.2009 11.1418-1.0826 43.4844 12 South Coast 10 20.4179 10.8282-1.2385 42.0742 13 Stikine 39.3 54.5759 11.6865 31.2029 77.9488 14 Taku 57.5 38.8250 10.7858 17.2534 60.3967 15 Tweedsmuir 20.1 14.1992 11.9564-9.7136 38.1120 16 Unuk-Bradfield 34.6 50.6820 10.8458 28.9904 72.3737

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Approximate 95% prediction limits from best Tobit model - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 32 200 150 Observed corrected density 100 Khutzeymateen 50 Taku Stikine Unuk-Bradfield 0 0 50 100 150 200 Prediced corrected density

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Compare model averaged vs best model predictions 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 33 60 Khutzeymateen 50 40 Model averaged corrected density 30 20 Tweedsmuir 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Best model corrected density

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 34 APPROXIMATE leverage plots Based on min aicc model: temp tree25 salmon_avg The REG Procedure Model: MODEL1 Dependent Variable: Density_corrected Number of Observations Read 16 Number of Observations Used 16 Analysis of Variance Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 6599.50928 2199.83643 13.36 0.0004 Error 12 1975.54822 164.62902 Corrected Total 15 8575.05750 Root MSE 12.83078 R-Square 0.7696 Dependent Mean 32.58750 Adj R-Sq 0.7120 Coeff Var 39.37333 Parameter Estimates Variable DF Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Value Pr > t Intercept 1 64.90347 15.79978 4.11 0.0015 temp 1 3.61201 1.80064 2.01 0.0679 tree25 1-1.05287 0.21563-4.88 0.0004 SALMON_AVG 1 38.81562 19.26886 2.01 0.0669

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 35 APPROXIMATE leverage plots Based on min aicc model: temp tree25 salmon_avg The REG Procedure Model: MODEL1 Dependent Variable: Density_corrected

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 36 APPROXIMATE leverage plots Based on min aicc model: temp tree25 salmon_avg The REG Procedure Model: MODEL1 Dependent Variable: Density_corrected

Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model 15:14 Friday, June 11, 2010 37 APPROXIMATE leverage plots Based on min aicc model: temp tree25 salmon_avg The REG Procedure Model: MODEL1 Partial Regression Residual Plot

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