9 August 218
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.
Q2 218 Key Market Highlights Strong Turkish Market 218 5M Diesel demand growth 12.5% Jet Fuel demand growth Gasoline demand growth 12.6% 5.5% Significant Increase in Crude Oil Price 218 Brent ($/bbl) 66.6 Q1 218 67. Q2 218 +16% 77.9 Compared to Q2 217 Stronger Middle Distillate; Weaker Gasoline-Fuel Oil Cracks in Q2 218 Jet cracks Diesel cracks Gasoline cracks High Sulphur Fuel Oil cracks Steep Increase in $/TL Q2 218 +15.5% 4.85 4.56 +39% +29% -11% -79% 3,77 3.95 1.1.218 7.1.218 13.1.218 19.1.218 25.1.218 31.1.218 6.2.218 12.2.218 18.2.218 24.2.218 2.3.218 8.3.218 14.3.218 2.3.218 26.3.218 1.4.218 7.4.218 13.4.218 19.4.218 25.4.218 1.5.218 7.5.218 13.5.218 19.5.218 25.5.218 31.5.218 6.6.218 12.6.218 18.6.218 24.6.218 3.6.218 2.1.218 8.1.218 12.1.218 18.1.218 24.1.218 3.1.218 5.2.218 9.2.218 15.2.218 21.2.218 27.2.218 5.3.218 9.3.218 15.3.218 21.3.218 27.3.218 4.4.218 1.4.218 16.4.218 2.4.218 26.4.218 2.5.218 9.5.218 15.5.218 21.5.218 25.5.218 1.6.218 7.6.218 13.6.218 19.6.218 25.6.218 29.6.218 Q1 218 3
Q2 218 Tüpraş Highlights Inventory Gain 231.4 million $ inventory gain in Q2 218 due to 16% increase in Brent price and 15.5% increase in FX Highest Q2 Net Refining Margin in Last Decade 12.3 $/bbl driven by production increase and inventory gain 14 11 7 4 6,1 Q2 - Tüpraş Net Refining Margin ($/bbl) 7,5 4,9 4,3 5,2 3,7 2,6 2,6 -,3 7,8 12,3 12,3 Higher Capacity Utilization Strong Balance Sheet Increase in production (Total 92%) in Q2 218 compared to Q1 218 (Total 78%) Ample amount of cash (1.3 Billion USD) and efficient liquidity management (1.5x Net Debt/Rolling EBITDA) No immediate rollover requirement for the rest of the year Increase in Middle Distillate Sales 4.4 million tons of domestic jet and diesel sales (+8.5% over Q2 217) -4 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 4,4 3,3 2,2 1,1 Domestic Middle Distillate Sales (mn tons) 4,37 4,3 Q2 217 Q2 218 In Q2 218 6.5 Million tons of Total Processed $ $ $ 7.4 Million tons of Total Sales 2,21 Million TL EBITDA 4
Enhancing our Trading Capabilities We are opening a trading office in London to Closely monitor international market opportunities, Support import and export operations, Create additional value from supply chain and sales activities. London office is planned to be opened until the end of the year 5
Market
Mixed Market Conditions in Q2 218 Q1 s story of high middle distillate, weak gasoline and fuel oil cracks continued in Q2 218. Ongoing Healthy Economic Global Aviation Infrastructure Maintenances (Apr- Activities Growth Spending May); Widening Differentials Refining Environment High Gasoline Stocks in US & Europe High Global Capacity Utilization Rates Increase in Trade Flows from Other Regions to Med Decrease in Fuel Oil Demand 7
Quarterly Crack Margin Comparison ($/bbl) in 215-218 Diesel and jet fuel cracks increased by 29% and 39% respectively; while gasoline and fuel oil cracks declined compared to 217 Q2. 1615,7 14 12 1 12,3 2 18 15,2 13,9 1,5 1,7 19,4 Diesel 9,2 8 8,9 7,9 6 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Gasoline 14,6 13,1 18,9 12,4 1,8 11,2 1615,2 14,5 15, 14 14,3 13,5 13,3 13, 12,8 12 12,7 1,9 1,9 1 1,9 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 215 216 217 218 Jet Fuel 16 14,4 14 12 13,3 1 9,5 13,8 11,2 9,9 12,4 1,5 12, 8 7,3 7,7 8 6 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4-4 -8-9,1-11,6-12,1-12 -16-13,2-12,6-12,4 High Sulphur Fuel Oil -7, -6,9-15 -13,1-1,6-2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 9,4 1,2-1, -9,4-15,5 8
Strong Turkish Market, 5M 218 (Million tons) Tüpraş is well positioned in a growing, short market. Diesel and jet fuel consumption in Turkey grew significantly the first 5 months of 218 driven by infrastructure projects and aviation growth. Diesel Jet Fuel 218 1,2 +12.5% 218 1,8 +12.6% 217 8,91 217 1,6 2 5 7 1 12 1 1 1 2 Gasoline Fuel Oil* 218,9 +5.5% 218,19-21.6% 217,85 217,24 *Bunker excluded Source: EMRA 1 1 9
Crude Price Differentials ($/bbl) Price differential between Brent and select Middle Eastern heavy crudes widened by.4 $/bbl on average in Q2 218 vs Q2 217, driven mainly by complex refinery maintenances. Ural Differentials Heavy Crude Price Differentials 1 Brent Brent -,6-1 -1,2-1,6-2 -2,1-2,3-2,4-1,7 -,9 -,3-1,3-2 -4-6 Beginning of OPEC cuts Kirkuk Kuwait -3-8 Arab Heavy Iran Heavy -4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -1 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 Basra Heavy 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 18Q1 18Q2 212-217 Min. 215 216 217 218 Iran Heavy Kirkuk Kuwait Basra Heavy Arab Heavy 1
Operations
Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume Capacity utilization and production decline in Q2 218 compared to Q2 217 was due to maintenances in İzmit, İzmir and Kırıkkale refineries. Our year-end guidance for capacity utilization and production remains unchanged. Quarterly Production (Million Tons) Capacity Utilization* in Q2 (%) 9 8 7,1 7 6,6 6 5,6 214 215 216 217 218 7,8 7,7 7,3 7,4 6,9 7,2 7,4 6,7 6,3 6,2 11 82,5 55 Crude Oil 69 4 65 Other 14 12 4 5 1 97 117 8 19 92 7 85 5 5,2 5,4 5,5 27,5 4,5 4,6 4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 *Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 33 days of operations. Q2 214 Q2 215 Q2 216 Q2 217 Q2 218 12
More than 5% Middle Distillate Yield Given Favorable Market Conditions In order to benefit from significant increase in middle distillate cracks, we produced higher diesel and jet (52.2%) in Q2 18. Middle Distillates Black Products (%) Jet Diesel (%) Coke Bitumen Fuel Oil 45,4 29,9 51,4 32,4 51,6 34,1 52,8 38,5 51,7 36, 51,1 34,4 5,8 31,9 47, 31, 53,7 34,3 52,2 32,1 26,1 15,2 2,7 5,4 21,6 4,7 21,2 5, 2,9 12,2 21,4 6,7 23,2 4,7 25,2 6,3 2,4 6,9 2,9 3,2 15,5 19, 17,5 14,3 15,8 16,7 18,9 16, 19,4 2,1 9,4 12,6 14,3 13,1 5,5 11,7 15,3 16,4 9,6 14,5 16'Q1 16'Q2 16'Q3 16'Q4 17'Q1 17'Q2 17'Q3 17'Q4 18'Q1 18'Q2 3,9 2,7 3,1 3,2 3,1 3,2 3,2 1,5 2,5 2,5 16'Q1 16'Q2 16'Q3 16'Q4 17'Q1 17'Q2 17'Q3 17'Q4 18'Q1 18'Q2 13
Increase in Domestic Sales in Q2 (Million Tons) We generated 7.4 million tons of total sales in Q2 218. Domestic middle distillate sales were 4.4 million tons, 8.5% higher than Q2 217. Total Sales in Q2 Domestic Sales of Key Products in Q2 Domestic Sales Export Diesel Jet Fuel Gasoline Bitumen 1 8 6 4 5,,9 4,1 7,3 1,9 5,4 7,7 1,3 6,4 8,1 1,4 6,6 7,4,7 6,7 6 4,8 3,6 2,4 3,5,4,5 1, 4,6,6,5 1,3 5,4,9,5 1,2 5,5,9,6 1,2 5,9,9,6 1,3 2 1,2 1,7 2,2 2,7 2,9 3,1 Q2 214 Q2 215 Q2 216 Q2 217 Q2 218 Q2 214 Q2 215 Q2 216 Q2 217 Q2 218 14
OPET Opet expanded its retail footprint to 1589 stations in June 218 from 156 stations in December 217. 18 Opet Sunpet 16 14 12 1 1.279 394 1.325 394 1.325 41 1.356 418 1.393 427 1.444 435 1.54 431 1.56 434 1.589 446 Market share as of May 218 17.3% 29.9% 8 White Black 6 4 83 885 915 938 966 1.9 1.73 1.126 1.143 Product Product 2 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 2Q 218 15
Financials
Inventory Effect* Analysis 231.4 million $ inventory gain in Q2 218 due to 16% increase in Brent price, 15.5% increase in FX and high stock level given maintenances. Million USD 218 217 Crude Product Total Crude Product Total First Half 118.7 183.1 31.8 7.8 34.3 42.1 2nd Quarter 98.9 132.5 231.4-17.8-21.9-39.7 Apr 12.5 43.3 55.8 6.8 4.8 11.5 May 56.7 49.4 16.1-8. -7.4-15.4 June 29.6 39.9 69.5-16.6-19.3-35.9 *FX,hedge effect and crude/product price effect included above calculations 17
Tüpraş Net Margin and Med Complex Margin Comparison ($/bbl) Tüpraş 12.3 $/bbl Net Refining Margin in 218 Q2 is significantly higher than 4.4 $/bbl Med Complex Margin mainly due to high inventory gain and increase in production. Tüpraş Net Med Complex 12,3 Excluding the 3.3 $/bbl inventory effect in Q2 7,5 7,8 218, Tüpraş Clean Net Margin was 9. $/bbl. Thanks to difference in product mix and crude slate, Tüpraş Clean Net Margin was 4.6 $/bbl 4,9 5,2 5,8 4,4 higher than the Med Margin. 3,2 Q2 215 Q2 216 Q2 217 Q2 218 Effect of hedging operations excluded from above calculations. 18
Income Statement (In TL) Tüpraş generated 2,21 mn TL EBITDA in Q2 218. Q2 218 Q2 217 % 6M 218 6M 217 % Net Sales 2,81 12,631 59. 33,52 25, 34. Gross Profit 2,221 1,595 39.2 3,29 3,24 2.7 Operating Expenses -277-258 -7.4-545 -497-9.7 Income/Loss from other operations -877 14-988 83 Operating Profit 1,66 1,478-27.9 1,756 2,79-37.1 Income/Loss from equity investment 86 49 75.5 138 17 29. Operating Profit Before Fin. Income/Loss 1,152 1,526-24.5 1,894 2,897-34.6 Net Financial Income /Expense -227-92 -497-41 -21 Profit Before Tax 925 1,435-35.5 1,397 2,487-43.8 Net Profit (including minority interest) 1,35 1,464-29.3 1,422 2,339-39.2 EBITDA* (mn.tl) 2,21 1,542 43 3,243 3,117 4 EBITDA* (mn. TL) CCS 1,194 1,681-29 1,96 2,95-34 * On CMB reports, EBIT includes extra items such as FX impacts of trade receivables and payables. In our EBITDA calculation, these are excluded from EBIT as customary in international practices. 19
Q2 Profit Before Tax Bridge (217-218) Decline in profit before tax was driven by FX loss and decrease in production, partially offset by inventory gain. Million TL 1.166,8 1.166,8 148,7 143,1 365,9 FX Impact +36 1.83,7 65, 1.434,8 925,2 217 Stok Inventory Effect Crack Margins Crude Oil Gain gain Differentials Production FX Other 218 2
Financial Highlights (Million $) Tüpraş Net Debt/Rolling EBITDA was 1.5x as of June 3, 218. EBITDA Net Income* 17 148 1117 825 533 242-5 -11-27 1.397 1.614 321 422 1.125 435 48 715 41 16 56 431 522 361 89 294 338 415 315 226 153 237 427 78 95 79 15 15 114 271 793 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 4th Q 3rd Q 2nd Q 1st Q 12 95 7 45 2-5 817 271 39 75 161 629 667 47 91 435 175 171 75 72 231 938 285 268 273 112 594 256 197 113 27 1.46 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 123 283 45 235 344 244 99 Net Debt- Net Debt/ Rolling EBITDA Return of Average Equity 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1. 5,8 551 212_R 2,4 1.34 213 3,5 3,6 1.869 1.598 214 H1 214 9M 4,9 1.663 214 2.748 2.577 3,3 2,8 215 H1 215 9M 2.37 2.391 Net Debt/R. EBITDA Net Debt. 1.751 1.729 1.68 1.657 1.555 1.24 1,7 2, 1,6 1,5 1,1 1,,7 1, 215 216 H1 216 9M 216 217Q1 217 H1 2179M 217 2.331 1.957 218Q1 218 H1 1.957 1,6 1,5 1 %55 %49 %45 %41 %35 %3 %32 31% %31 %24 %26 %22 %16 %17 %11 %4 211 212 213 214 215 216 Q1 216 H1 216 9M 216 217 Q1 217 H1 217 9M 217 218 Q1 218 H1 *Excluding minority interest 21
Balance Sheet Analysis (Billion $) Given our strong liquidity management and cash generation capabilities, our financial loans decreased to 3.2 Billion $ ex-dividend. Cash & Cash Equivalents Trade Receivables 3, 2,4 1,8 1,2,6, 1,7 Mar.14 1,3 Jun.14 1,6 Sep.14 1,7 Dec.14 1,2 Mar.15 1, Jun.15,8 Sep.15 1, Dec.15 1,6 Mar.16 1,6 Jun.16 2,5 Sep.16 1,7 Dec.16 2, Mar.17 1,6 Jun.17 2,2 Sep.17 2,3 Dec.17 1,7 Mar.18 1,29 1,3 Jun.18 2, 1,6 1,2,8,4,71 Mar.14,52 Jun.14,51 Sep.14,9 Dec.14,2 Mar.15,66 Jun.15 1,7 Sep.15,88 Dec.15,7 Mar.16,91 Jun.16,75 Sep.16,91 Dec.16 1,9 Mar.17 1,15 Jun.17 1,57 Sep.17 1,36 Dec.17 1,42 Mar.18 1,52 1,52 Jun.18 Financial Loans Trade Payables 5, 4,3 3,6 2,9 2,1 1,4,7, 3,7,9 2,8 Mar.14 3,2,3 2,9 214 1h LT Loans 3,2 3,3,3,3 2,9 3, 214 9M Dec 14 3,7,4 3,3 Mar.15 ST Loans 3,6 3,6,5,6 3,1 3, Jun.15 Sep.15 3,4,6 2,8 Dec.15 3,9 1, 2,9 Mar-16 4, 1,2 2,8 Jun-16 4,2 1,1 3,1 Sep-16 3,4,6 2,9 Dec.16 3,5,6 3, Mar.17 3,3 1,1 2,1 Jun.17 3,4 1,3 2,1 Sep.17 4, 1,4 2,6 Dec.17 4, 1,6 2,4 Mar.18 3,2 3,2,8 2,5 Jun.18 4 3 2 1 2,91 Mar.14 3,26 Jun.14 3,3 Sep.14 2,42 Dec.14 1,72 Mar.15 1,69 Jun.15 1,58 Sep.15 1,33 Dec.15 1,21 Mar-16 1,67 Jun-16 1,96 Sep-16 1,99 Dec.16 2,18 Mar.17 2,17 Jun.17 2,68 Sep.17 2,18 Dec.17 2,19 Mar.18 2,75 2,75 Jun.18 22
FX Exposure Management (3 June 218) Consolidated Assets Consolidated Liabilities Million $ Thanks to strict FX policies of Tüpraş, our foreign exchange exposure was 54 million dollars long, as of June 3, 218. Cash 1,6 Receivables & other assets 56 Stock 1,651 Forward & CFH 2,447 Payables 2,326 ST Financial 479 RUP : 249 Other: 23 LT Financial 2,31 RUP : 856 Eurobond 7 Other Loans : 745 +54 mn $ * Cash flow hedge accounting : 1,119 mn $ 23
Tüpraş: Growing, Resilient, Profitable Tüpraş is a compelling investment case with strong sales growth, resilient and profitable operational and financial structure. Resilient Growing Operating in a diesel short market (supplies 45% of the market), along with strong jet growth Well poised to capture future opportunities including IMO 22 with its output complexity Continuous investment in logistics, infrastructure and trading capabilities Profitable Strong balance sheet with no immediate rollover requirement for the rest of the year Secure receivables portfolio, tight working capital management Pricing mechanism in place to address commodity and FX fluctuations Benefits from full system optimization given high complexity, procurement and logistics flexibility Prudent hedging practices to ensure stable earnings outlook High dividend pay-out ratio annually 24
Outlook for 218
218 Refinery Maintenance Schedule & Capacity Utilization Our year end total capacity utilization target has not changed. We expect full year-end total capacity utilization. Unit Quarter Duration (weeks) Reason *Plt 7 Crude Oil Unit Q4 17 - Q2 18 17 in 218 Revamp İzmir İzmit *Hydrocracker Q1 3 *Plt 4 FCC Q2 7 Plt 2 Crude Oil & Vacuum Unit Q4 2 in 218 *Plt 5 Crude Oil & Vacuum Unit Q2 8.5 Plt 25 Crude Oil & Vacuum Unit Q4 5-6 *Plt 47 Hydrocracker Complex Q2 11 Plt 63 CCR & DHP Q4 5-6 Periodic Maintenance Periodic Maintenance Kırıkkale *All Units Q1- Q2 1 Battery Shutdown Batman *Plt. 1/Crude Oil & Vacuum Q1 4-5 Periodic Maintenance 218 Crude Capacity Utilization 26.8 mn tons 95.4% 218 Total Capacity Utilization Full * Completed Maintenances 26
218 Expectations vs H1 218 Results Brent Price ($/bbl) Capacity Utilisation (%) 8 75 Brent ($/bbl) Tüpraş Expectation Min Tüpraş Expectation Max 7-75 $/bbl Average Brent Price Expectation 7.6 $/bbl Brent Price average in H1 15'H1 16'H1 17'H1 94 11 111 Full Capacity Utilization target 85% Total Capacity Utilization in H1 7 65 6 69,2 65,2 65,9 71,8 76,9 74,3 18'H1 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 85 55 1 8 6 4 2 J-18 F-18 M-18 A-18 M-18 J-18 Refining Margins ($/bbl) Tüpraş Net Margin 8,9 Med Margin 7.5-8 $/bbl Expected Net Refining Margin 8.9 $/bbl Net Refining Margin in H1 4,2 218 Operational (mn ton) Production Sales 11,4 13,6 4 8 12 16 Capex (mn $) 216 217 H1 218 92,6 185, 213, 5 1 15 2 25 28.3 m tons of production and 31 m tons of sales target 11.4 mn tons of production and 13.6 mn tons of sales in H1 25 mn $ CAPEX target 92.6 mn $ CAPEX in H1 27
Future Expectations We only updated our average Brent Price expectation. The rest of our expectations remain the same as before. Brent Price Estimation Med Complex Margin Average Brent price expectation in 218 is revised to 7-75 $/bbl per barrel Med Complex margin expectation is 4.75-5. $/bbl in 218 Tüpraş Net Margin Net Tüpraş refinery margin is expected to be in the region of 7.5-8. $/bbl Operations Full Total Capacity Utilization using imported semi-products such as ASRFO and HVGO Production: approximately 28.3 million tons Total sales: 31. million tons Investment Refining investments is expected to be around 25 Million $ 28