Member of HVB Group Business Information www.ba-ca.com X PLICIT Key Economic Indicators December 2002 Banking for success.
ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR AUSTRIA* Percentage change over previous year 2000 200 2002 2 2003 2 GDP 3 3.4 0.7 0.7.4 GDP 4 5.0 2.3 2.2 3.0 Private consumption 3 3.4.5 0.4.4 Investment in machinery & equipment 3.8 2.9 5.2 3.7 Investment in construction 3.2.5 0. 2.3 Exports of goods & services 3 3.4 7.4 2.5 6.4 Imports of goods & services 3.9 5.9 0.4 7.0 Consumer prices 2.3 2.7.8.6 Current account balance in EUR billion 5.4 4.7 2.0 2.5 in % of GDP 2.6 2.2 0.9. Unemployment rate in % (Eurostat) 3.7 3.6 4. 4.0 Unemployment rate 5 5.8 6. 7. 6.9 preliminary figures 2 Bank Austria Creditanstalt forecast 3 real, based on 995 prices 4 nominal 5 national definition GROWTH OF REAL GDP IN AUSTRIA* Percentage change over previous year, 983-2003 5 4 3 2 983 985 987 989 99 993 995 997 999 200 2003 since 988 calculated in accordance with ESA 95. 200 preliminary figures. 2002 and 2003 Bank Austria Creditanstalt forecast
AUSTRIA S GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)* In Euro billion. Gross value added (at current prices) 998 999 2000 200 Agriculture, forestry 4.30 4.28 4.32 4.5 Mining, manufacturing 36.8 38.09 4.08 42.4 Energy & water supply 4.7 4.76 4.39 4.24 Construction 4.5 4.86 5.5 4.75 Wholesale/retail 22.82 23.32 24.9 25.4 Restaurants, hotels 6.96 7.34 7.93 8.56 Transport, communication 2.85 2.93 3.39 3.90 Finance, insurance 2.23.75 3.2 3.5 Real estate and business services 27.59 29.2 3.42 33.8 Government services.72 2.22 2.50 2.75 Other service activities 25.5 25.34 26.53 27.44 Imputed bank services charges ( ) 9.05 8.36 9.60 0.29 Taxes less subsidies on products (+) 20.04 2.50 2.80 2.76 Gross Domestic Product (nominal) 90.63 97.5 207.04 2.86 In Euro billion. Expenditures (at current prices) 998 999 2000 200 Private consumption 08.48.99 7.44 2.58 Public consumption 37.25 39.04 39.80 40.54 Gross fixed capital formation 46.9 48.35 50.27 49.2 Stockbuilding, statistical discrepancy 0.5 0.54 0.79 0.67 Total domestic demand 9.76 98.85 208.30 2.92 plus exports of goods & services 82.68 89.63 03.9.2 less imports of goods & services 83.82 9.33 05.8.9 Gross Domestic Product (nominal) 90.63 97.5 207.04 2.86 *Economic data are computed in accordance with the European System of Integrated Economic Accounts (ESA 95). rounding-off errors
AUSTRIA Annual or monthly averages, change over previous year Industrial- Retail Exports production nominal 999 6.0 3.0 7.0 2000 9.9 2.7 5.6 200 0.2 0.4 6.5 2002 May.2 0.5 0.6 2002 June 4.8 0.7 8.9 2002 July 4.0.7 6.6 2002 Aug..9 0.5 3.6 TOURISM IN AUSTRIA Foreign currency receipts and expenditures, in Euro million Receipts Expendit. Balance Overnight 999 0,354 8,623,730 2,557 2000 0,752 9,26,536 3,367 200,297 9,922,374 5,073 2002 April 869 788 8 4,970 2002 May 92 990 78 6,45 2002 June 94 995 8 8,88 2002 July,096,804 709 4,580 2002 Aug.,35,558 423 6,494 overnight stays (Austrians and foreigners) in thousand AUSTRIA S LABOUR MARKET Annual average or end-of-month value, in thousand Employed Unemployed Joblessrate 999 3,07.9 22.7 6.7% 2000 3,33.7 94.3 5.8% 200 3,48.2 203.9 6.% 2002 June 3,8.4 9.7 5.7% 2002 July 3,248. 9.6 5.6% 2002 Aug. 3,230.8 99.7 5.8% 2002 Sept. 3,96. 99.8 5.8% 2002 Oct. 3,75.9 23.5 6.3% national definition. monthly figures not seasonally adjusted
AUSTRIA S FOREIGN TRADE 200 Imports: Total 78.69 Euro billion Africa, Australia and Oceania.7% Latin America 0.7% North America 5.8% Asia 9.2% Eastern Europe 2.8% EFTA and other European countries 3.7% Other EU countries 4.5% Euro area 60.9% AUSTRIA S FOREIGN TRADE 200 Exports: Total 74,25 Euro billion Africa, Australia and Oceania.6% Latin America.2% North America 6.% Asia 6.5% Eastern Europe 7.% EFTA and other European countries 6.0% Other EU countries 6.6% Euro area 54.2%
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Percentage change over previous year 5 3 USA OECD Euro 2 Austria 997 998 999 2000 200 2002 2003 forecast 3-MONTH INTEREST RATES In percent, monthly averages 7 5 3 Switzerland Japan GB USA Euro 0.00.0 4.0 7.0 0.0.02 4.02 7.02 0.02
CONSUMER PRICES Percentage change over previous year 4 2 0 Euro 2 Japan Germany USA Austria 0.00.0 4.0 7.0 0.0.02 4.02 7.02 0.02 measured by HICPs BOND YIELDS (SECONDARY MARKET) In percent, 0-year government obligations 7 5 3 Switzerland Japan Germany USA Austria 0.00.0 4.0 7.0 0.0.02 4.02 7.02 0.02
SHARE PRICE INDICES January, 2000 = 00 30 0 90 70 50 ATX Euro Stoxx 50 0.00.0 4.0 7.0 0.0.02 4.02 7.02 0.02 30 0 90 70 50 Dow Jones Industrial Nikkei 225 0.00.0 4.0 7.0 0.0.02 4.02 7.02 0.02 00 80 60 40 20 NASDAQ Nemax 0.00.0 4.0 7.0 0.0.02 4.02 7.02 0.02
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Percentage change over previous year Austria Germ. Euro 2 USA Japan 997.6.4 2.3 4.4.9 998 3.9 2.0 2.9 4.3. 999 2.9 2.0 2.8 4. 0.0 2000 3.4 2.9 3.5 3.8 2. 200 0.7 0.6.5 0.3 0.2 2002 2 0.7 0.3 0.7 2.4 0.8 2003 2.4.0.3.8. preliminary figures 2 Bank Austria Creditanstalt forecast LEADING INDICATORS Percentage change over previous year and over previous month Austria Germ. Euro 2 USA Japan 999 3.6 0.3 2. 3.2 4.9 2000 6.9 6.8 3.4 2. 4.4 200.9 5.3 3.7 4.5.5 2002 March 0.7. 0.5 0.0. 2002 April 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.2.0 2002 May 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0. 2002 June 0. 0.3 0. 0.4 0. 2002 July 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 2002 Aug. 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.5 2002 Sept. 0.2 0.3 0. 0.7 0.2 CONSUMER PRICES Percentage change over previous year Austria Germ. Euro 2 USA Japan 997.2.5.6 2.3.7 998 0.8 0.6..5 0.6 999 0.5 0.6. 2.2 0.3 2000 2.0 2. 2.3 3.4 0.6 200 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.9 0.7 2002 2.5.4 2.2.6.0 2003 2.4.3.6 2.3 0.5 measured by HICPs 2 Bank Austria Creditanstalt forecast
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In percent, annual or monthly averages Austria Germ. Euro 2 USA Japan 997 4.4 9.9 0.9 5.0 3.4 998 4.5 9.3 0.2 4.5 4. 999 3.9 8.4 9.4 4.2 4.7 2000 3.7 7.8 8.4 4.0 4.7 200 3.6 7.8 8.0 4.8 5.0 2002 2 4. 8.2 8.3 5.8 5.4 2003 2 4.0 8. 8.2 6.0 5.6 200 4. Qtr. 3.8 7.9 8.0 5.6 5.4 2002. Qtr. 4.0 8.0 8. 5.6 5.3 2. Qtr. 4. 8.2 8.2 6.0 5.3 3. Qtr. 4.2 8.3 8.3 5.7 EU countries are computed pursuant to the Eurostat method 2 BA-CA forecast BUDGET DEFICIT/SURPLUS In percent of GDP Austria Germ. Euro 2 USA Japan 997.9 2.7 2.6 0.3 3.4 998 2.4 2.2 2.2 0.8 5.0 999 2.3.4.3.3 7.0 2000.5.3 0.8 2.4 7.4 200 0.2 2.8.4 0.9 7. 2002 2.3 3.8 2.4.9 8.0 2003 2.3 2.9 2.0 2.0 7.8 preliminary figures 2 forecast CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES In percent of GDP Austria Germ. Euro 2 USA Japan 997 3.2 0..9.7 2.2 998 2.5 0.3 0.5 2.5 3. 999 3.2 0.9 0. 3.5 2.4 2000 2.6.0 0.5 4.5 2.5 200 2.2 0.5 0. 4.3 2. 2002 2 0.9 0.2 0. 4.5 3.0 2003 2. 0.2 0.2 4.4 2.9 preliminary figures 2 forecast
MEAN EXCHANGE RATE OF THE EURO In currency for one euro, annual or monthly averages USD JPY GBP CHF SEK RUB 999.07 2.4 0.66.60 8.8 26.5 2000 0.92 99.5 0.6.56 8.45 26.0 200 0.90 08.7 0.62.5 9.26 26. 2002 April 0.89 5.8 0.6.47 9.4 27.7 2002 May 0.9 5.9 0.63.46 9.22 28.7 2002 June 0.96 7.8 0.64.47 9. 30. 2002 July 0.99 7. 0.64.46 9.27 3.3 2002 Aug. 0.98 6.3 0.64.46 9.25 30.9 2002 Sept. 0.98 8.4 0.63.46 9.7 3. 2002 Oct. 0.98 2.6 0.63.47 9. 3. PLN CZK SKK HUF SIT HRK 999 4.23 36.9 44.3 252.7 94.4 7.6 2000 4.0 35.6 43.4 260.0 206.6 7.7 200 3.67 34. 43.3 256.6 28.0 7.5 2002 April 3.59 30.3 4.7 242.3 224.4 7.4 2002 May 3.7 30.6 43.0 243.9 225.2 7.4 2002 June 3.85 30.3 44.3 242.7 226.0 7.3 2002 July 4.09 29.7 44.5 246.7 226.6 7.4 2002 Aug. 4.08 30.8 43.9 245.3 227.2 7.4 2002 Sept. 4.07 30.2 42.9 243.9 228.0 7.3 2002 Oct. 4.04 30.7 4.8 243.5 228.7 7.4 Reference rates of the ECB, national statistics KEY INTEREST RATES Rate prevailing on last change Nov. 9, 2002 since in % points Euro 2 (repo) 3.25% Nov. 200 0.50 USA (fed funds).25% Nov. 2002 0.50 Japan (discount) 0.0% Sept. 200 0.5 Switzerland (SNB targetbandmiddle) 0.75% July 2002 0.50 UK (base rate) 4.00% Nov. 200 0.50
You will also find economic analyses on Bank Austria Creditanstalt s homepage: www.ba-ca.com under Analyses & Research in the section Economic Research Published by Bank Austria Creditanstalt 030 Vienna, Vordere Zollamtsstrasse 3 00 Vienna, Am Hof 2 Edited by Economics Department Bernhard Sinhuber, telephone +43 (0)5 05 05/4964 (email: economic.research@ba-ca.com) Production: Public Relations Department Printed by Holzhausen Graphics: Hans Ljung Photo: Buenos Dias Sources: Bank Austria Creditanstalt, EZB, OECD, OeNB, ÖSTAT, Reuters, WIFO, Datastream Closing Date: November 20, 2002