Deriving effective least-cost policy strategies for alternative automotive concepts and alternative fuels
Coordinator: EEG, Vienna University of Technology Partners: Stichting Energieonderzoek Centrum Nederland, The Netherlands Eni Corporate University S.P.A., Italy BSR Sustainability GmbH, Germany Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie GmbH, Germany AEOLIKI Ltd, Cyprus Black Sea Energy Center, Bulgaria Association Rhônalpénergie-Environnement, France Centre for Renewable Energy Sources, Greece Stowarzyszenie The Kraków Institute for Sustainable Energy, Poland Chalmers Tekniska Högskola Aktiebolag, Sweden Forschungsgesellschaft Mobilität-Austrian Mobility Research, Austria Sociedade Por Quotas CEEETA-ECO, Portugal Det Økologisk Råd (EcoCouncil), Denmark Duration: 1 October 28-3 April 211
The core objective is to derive effective least-cost policy strategies to achieve a significant increase in innovative alternative fuels (AF) and corresponding alternative more efficient automotive technologies (AAMT) to head towards a sustainable individual & public transport system. The heart of this project is an investigation of about 8 recently implemented successful case studies of pilot projects for marketing AF & AAMT from all over Europe and beyond. Furthermore, prospective scenarios on the future deployment of AF & AAMT will be developed, showing how to meet EU targets with least-cost for EU citizens based on efficient & effective policy mixes.
WP2: EEG Review of historical developments WP3: BSR Technology and fuel assessment WP4: FGM-AMOR Development and analysis of case studies WP1: EEG Management WP6: EEG Deriving scenarios and Action plan WP5: ECN Evaluation of policy effectivness WP7: KISE Communication & Dissemination WP8: EEG Common Dissemination activities
www.alter-motive.org
Trends in motorized passenger transport in European countries No ways towards sustainability? Amela Ajanovic, Reinhard Haas Vienna University of Technology, Energy Economics Group Vienna, 8.9.29
Contents 1. Introduction 2. Impact of GDP 3. Impact of fuel price 4. Switch from gasoline to diesel cars 5. Alternative fuels 6. Conclusions
1. Introduction Objective: The core objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of the economic parameters income and fuel price on service indicators car ownership, overall travel activity and on car fuel economy in individual motorized transport in different EU countries.
2. Impact of GDP 35 GDP per capita (US 2$ PPP/cap) 3 25 2 15 1 5 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 ES DK SE UK IT DE FR AT Development of GDP per capita
2. Impact of GDP 25 Total energy per capita (GJ/cap) 2 15 1 5 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 GDP per capita (US 2$ PPP/cap) ES DK SE UK IT DE FR AT Total energy use per capita for cars in road passenger transport versus GDP per capita
2. Impact of GDP 7 6 Vehicles per 1 capita 5 4 3 2 1 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 GDP per capita (US 2$ PPP/cap.) ES DK SE UK IT DE FR AT Car ownership versus GDP
2. Impact of GDP 8 Vehicle km per capita (vkm/cap) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 ES SE UK IT DE FR AT Development of vehicle kilometer per capita
2. Impact of GDP 8 7 Vehicles km per capita 6 5 4 3 2 1 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 GDP per capita (US $/cap.) ES SE UK IT DE FR AT Car vehicles km per capita versus GDP per capita
3. Impact of fuel price 2 1.8 Fuel price (US 2 $/litre) 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.8.6.4.2 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 ES DK SE UK IT DE FR AT Fuel price (including all taxes)
3. Impact of fuel price 25 Total energy per capita (TJ/cap) 2 15 1 5 198 25.2.4.6.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 Fuel price SE UK IT DE F R AT Energy per capita versus fuel price 198 & 25
3. Impact of fuel price 7 6 IT Stock cars per 1 capita 5 4 3 2 ES SE DK AT UK FR DE 1.2.4.6.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 Fuel price Car ownership versus fuel price year 26
3. Impact of fuel price 8 7 26 Vehicle-km per capita 6 5 4 3 2 198 1.2.4.6.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 Fuel price ES SE UK IT DE FR AT Vehicle-km per capita versus fuel price (period 198-26)
3. Impact of fuel price 12 Fuel intensity (litres/1 km) 1 8 6 4 2 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 ES DK SE UK IT DE FR AT Average on road fuel intensity of stock of cars, gasoline equivalent
3. Impact of fuel price 9 Fuel intensity (l/1 km) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 ES SE AT UK FR IT 1.2.4.6.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 Fuel price (US 2 $) Car fuel intensity versus average fuel price, year 26
4. Switch from gasoline to diesel cars 1995 26 1% 1% Share Gasoline-Diesel 8% 6% 4% 2% Share Gasolne-Diesel 8% 6% 4% 2% % ES DK SE UK IT DE FR AT % ES DK SE UK IT DE FR AT Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Share of gasoline and diesel cars
5. Alternative fuels 35 Biofuels production (Mil. litre/yr) 3 25 2 15 1 5 DE FR IT DK/SE AT ES UK Biodiesel Bioethanol Biofuels production in year 28
Conclusions Total energy consumption per capita, car ownership and travel activity are strongly linked with GDP. Fuel prices have a significant impact on fuel economy. Fuel intensity by car category declined moderately since 198. Yet, overall energy conservation effects are offset by increases in overall travel activity and trend to larger vehicles. Another important message is that energy policies had an impact, for example, the high registration taxes and fuel taxes in Denemark led to a lower vehicle stock compared to other countries. In last years in Europe diesels became a more and more popular choice because of cheaper service.
Thank you for attention!