Fuel quality and its impact on vehicle emissions Bert Fabian CAI-Asia Asia Center JARI Philippines Roundtable 2010: Air Pollution Reduction and Energy Policies in the Philippines 5 February 2010 1
Achieving sustainable transport Government TOOLS Urban/Transport Planning and Demand Management Development Institutions EXTERNALITIES PLANNING REGULATORY ECONOMIC INFORMATION TECHNOLOGICAL Civil Society TOOL LS Public Transport & Non Motorized Transport Cleaner and Efficient Fuels and Vehicles Freight and Logistics AIR POLLUTION O CLIMATE CHANGE ROAD SAFETY SOCIAL EQUITY CONGESTION NOISE POLLUTION Private Sector Source: CAI-Asia 2009 2
Increasing Motorization and Vehicle Growth 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 800 700 600 total number of vehicles (in millions) motorization index 50 0 500 400 300 200 100 0 2005 2015 2025 2035 2005 2015 2025 2035 2005 2015 2025 2035 2005 2015 2025 2035 2005 2015 2025 2035 2005 2015 2025 2035 ASEAN(Major Countries) CHINA INDIA OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Total Vehicles (in millions) Motorization Index (V/1000 P) Source: 2008. ADB, CAI-Asia, Segment Y Ltd., and IEA 3
Ambient Air Quality Trends in Asia 120 Annual Ambient AQ Trends in Asia 100 80 60 40 20 199 9 3 0 20 7 199 3 200 0 7 199 9 3 PM10 NOX SOX 200 7 WHO Guidelines(1 year) EU Standard (1 year) USEPA Standard(1 year) Source: 2008. CAI-Asia 4
PM Emissions from transport (BAU) 700 650 600 550 500 Thousan nd tons 450 400 350 300 Vietnam Philippines Thailand Indonesia 250 India 200 China 150 100 50 0 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 Source: 2009. ADB, CAI Asia, and Segment Y Ltd., 5
CO 2 Emissions from Transport (BAU) 7000 6000 Vietnam Philippines Thailand ONS/YEAR ( Million Tons) CO 2 EMISSI 5000 Indonesia India 4000 China Srilanka 3000 Nepal Malaysia 2000 South Korea 1000 0 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 Years Source: 2009. ADB, CAI Asia, and Segment Y Ltd. Bangladesh Singapore Pakistan 6
Emissions from mobile sources 7
Impact of Fuels on Light-Duty t Diesel Vehicles Diesel Fuel Characteristic i Pre Euro Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 a Comments Sulfur SO 2, PM If oxidation catalyst is If filter, 50 ppm used, SO 3, SO 2, PM maximum, 10 15 ppm better If NO X adsorber used requires near zero sulfur (<10 ppm) With low S, use lubricity additives. Cetane Lower CO, HC, benzene, 1,3 butadiene, formaldehyde & acetaldehyde Higher white smoke with low cetane fuels. Density PM, HC, CO, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde & benzene, NO X Volatility NO X, HC, PM, CO (T95 from 370 to 325 0 C) Polyaromatics NOX, PM, formaldehyde & acetaldehyde but HC, benzene & CO Some studies show that X,, y y, total aromatics are important for emissions in a manner similar to polyaromatics Source: 2008. ADB and CAI-Asia
Impact of Fuels on Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles Diesel Fuel Characteristic i Pre Euro Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 a Comments Sulfur SO 2, PM If oxidation catalyst is If filter, 50 ppm used, SO 3, SO 2, PM maximum, 10 15 ppm better If NO X adsorber used requires near zero sulfur (<10 ppm) With low S, use lubricity additives. Cetane Lower CO, HC, benzene, 1,3 butadiene, formaldehyde & acetaldehyde Higher white smoke with low cetane fuels. Density HC, CO, NO X Volatility Slightly lower NO X, but HC Too large a fraction of (T95 from 370 to fuel that does not 325 0 C) volatilize at 370 0 C increases smoke and PM. Polyaromatics NOX, PM, HC Some studies show that total aromatics are important for emissions in a manner similar to polyaromatics Source: 2008. ADB and CAI-Asia
Impact of Gasoline Composition on Emissions from Light- Duty Vehicles Gasoline No Catalyst Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 b Comments Lead Pb, HC CO, HC, NO X all increase dramatically as catalyst destroyed Sulfur SO HC, NO all increase ~15 20% Onboard diagnostic light may come 2 CO, X cease (50 to 450 ppm) SO 2 and SO 3 increase on incorrectly Olefins Increased 1,3 butadiene, increased HC reactivity, and NO X, small increases in HC for Euro 3 and cleaner Potential deposit buildup Aromatics Increasedbenzeneinexhaust exhaust Deposits on intakevalves and combustion chamber tend to increase Benzene Distillation Characteristics T50, T90 potential increases in HC, NO X HC, NO X, CO HC, NO X, CO Increased benzene exhaust and evaporative emissions Probably HC HC RVP Increased evaporative HC Emissions Most critical parameter for Asian countries because of high ambient temperatures Deposit control Potential lhc, NO i Helpto reducedeposits X emissions benefits deposits on fuel additives injectors, carburetors, intake valves, combustion chamber Source: 2008. ADB and CAI-Asia
Impact of Gasoline Composition on Emissions from Motorcycles Gasoline No Catalyst India Euro 3 India Taipei, China Comments 2005 2008 Stage 4 Lead Pb, HC CO, HC, NO X dramatically as catalyst destroyed Sulfur (50 to 450 ppm) SO 2 CO, HC, NO X ; SO 2 and SO 3 Olefins 1,3 butadiene, HC reactivity, and NO X Potential deposit buildup Aromatics Benzene exhaust Benzene Benzene exhaust and evaporative emissions Distillation Characteristics Probably HC HC T50, T90 RVP Evaporative HC Emissions Not as quantifiable as in passenger cars Deposit control additives Potential emissions benefits Help to reduce deposits on fuel injectors, carburetors
PM EMISSIONS/Y YEAR (000To Tons) Case of Philippines Stricter vehicle standards 60 50 40 30 20 10 PM EMISSIONS (BAU) EURO IV in 2012 HCV LCV PC MC three MC two R (000Tons) PM EMIS SSIONS/YEA 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 PM EMISSIONS (with PRE EURO No improvement scenario) 0 200 2005 2008 2015 2025 0 2005 2008 2015 2025 Moving quickly from Pre-Euro to Euro-II has significantly reduced emissions. But government should leapfrog to Euro-IV and V as soon as possible. 800 600 400 HCV LCV PC MC three MC two 12
CAI-Asia Center www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia Sophie Punte, Executive Director sophie.punte@cai-asia.org Glynda Bathan-Baterina, Policy and Partnerships Manager glynda.bathan@cai-asia.org Bert Fabian, Transport Program Manager bert.fabian@cai-asia.org Sudhir Gota, Transport Specialist sudhir@cai-asia.org Unit 3510, 35 th floor Robinsons-Equitable Tower ADB Avenue, Pasig City Metro Manila 1605 Philippinesi 2/9/2010 13