Modeling Investigation of Energy Use and Air Emissions from Urban Transportation Sector Prof. Kebin HE Tsinghua University Workshop of IGES/APN Mega-City Project January 23-24, 2002, Kitakyushu, Japan
Contents Background Methodology Scenarios Results and analysis Conclusions
Background
Urbanization level in China Accelerated urbanization progress after 1978 Urbanization level increased from 17.92% in 1978 to 30.89% in 1999, and is expected to reach 50% by 2025. Higher growth rates is experienced in the east coastal provinces Urbanization Level (% 35 30 25 20 15 78 80 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 Year
Highly urbanized regions in China JingJinTang Region Beijing (60%) and Tianjin (58%) are the dominant cities Yangtze River Delta Shanghai (73%) is the dominant city Pearl River Delta Guangzhou (80%) is the dominant city
Percentage of each pollutants as weekly major pollutant in 41 key cities in 1999 JingJinTang Region Yangtze River Delta Pearl River Delta
Methodology
Methodology A Spreadsheet Model is developed The objective of the model Project the environmental impact of transport sector Evaluate the present or future strategies and policies Provide useful information for integration analysis of sustainable urban development
About the model A multiple-page Excel spreadsheet Table-formatted inputs and calculations A graphical display for presenting results Based on different scenarios, the models provide a year-by-year estimate of fuel consumption and emissions
Vehicle classification Light duty gasoline vehicle (LDGV) Light duty diesel vehicle (LDDV) Light duty gasoline trucks 1 (LDGT1) Light duty gasoline trucks 2 (LDGT2) Light duty diesel trucks (LDDT) Heavy duty gasoline vehicles (HDGV) Heavy duty diesel vehicles (HDDV) Motorcycle (MC)
Input and output of the model Data requirement Information about Vehicle population (1980-2020) Travel mileage (1995-2020) Fuel economy of new vehicles (1980-2020) Emission factors of new vehicles (1980-2020) Deterioration level of fuel economy and emission factors (1980-2020) Output of the Model Fuel consumption (1995-2020) Gasoline, Diesel Emission amount (1995-2020) CO, NO x, HC, SO 2, PM 10, CO 2
Methodology of the model 1980-2000 Vehicle population 1980-2001 Vehicle Scrappage 2001-2020 Vehicle growth rate 1980-2020 Emission factor of new vehicle and deterioration ratio 1980-2020 Fuel specification 1995-2020 New Vehicle population 1995-2020 Vehicle population 1980-2020 Fuel economy of new vehicle and deterioration ratio 1995-2020 Average emission factor 1995-2020 Average Mileage Travelled 1995-2020 Average fuel economy 1995-2020 Pollutants emission amount 1995-2020 Fuel consumption
Calculation method of Average Fuel Economy : AFE n 15 i = 1 = ( i i VP NFE DFE ) n VP n i + 1 n n -i + 1 n year; i vehicle age; AFE n average fuel economy in year n; VP n vehicle population in year n; VP i n number of vehicles with age of i in year n; NFE n fuel economy of new vehicles in year n; DFE i n fuel economy deterioration level of vehicles which are initially used in year n and have age of i.
Calculation method of Average Emission Factor : For NO x, CO, HC and PM 10 AEF n = NVP n NEF n + 15 n 1 n 15 n 1 n i= 1 [ ] ( i VP NVP AFE + VP DEF ) VP n n-i+ 1 AEF n average emission factor in year n; NEF n emission factor of new vehicles in year n; DEF i n emission deterioration level of vehicles which initially used in year n.
Emission factors of SO 2 and CO 2 : SO CO 2 = S f ( f EF ) 64 32 12 28 2 = HC C EFCO 12 44 SO 2 emission factor of SO 2,, g/km; S sulfur content of the vehicular fuel; f fuel efficiency, g/km; 64, 32 molecular weight of [SO 2 ] and [S]; CO 2 emission factor of CO 2, g/km; C carbon content of the vehicular fuel; EF HC, EF CO emission factor of HC and CO respectively, g/km; 12, 28, 44 molecular weight of [C], [CO] and [CO 2 ]
Scenarios (Beijing Case)
Vehicle population (million) 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 LDGV LDGT1 LDDT HDDV LDDV LDGT2 HDGV MC 0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Projections for fuel economy and emission factors of the future new vehicles Fuel economy: For LDGV, LDDV, LDGT1 and LDDT, it will reach the current level of Japan or Europe in 2020 and the government will implement related standards in 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018. For LDGT2, HDGV and HDDV, it will improve 1.0% annually. For MC, it will improve 0.8% annually. Emission factors: Four sets of new emission standards 2003 EURO 2; 2007 EURO 3; 2010 EURO 4; 2015 EURO 5
Fuel economy of new vehicles L/100Km 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 LDGV LDDV LDGT1 LDGT2 LDDT HDGV HDDV MC 0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Emission factors of new vehicles g/km 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 NOx CO HC 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Base year (1998) average emission factors in Beijing (g/km) NO x CO HC PM 10 LDGV 1.900 46.700 5.420 0.023 LDDV 2.455 2.506 1.089 0.251 LDGT1 2.380 41.930 6.380 0.025 LDGT2 4.160 64.180 9.480 0.139 LDDT 2.639 2.534 1.170 0.269 HDGV 5.580 148.460 11.000 0.152 HDDV 20.440 10.630 3.410 0.785 MC 0.080 16.060 5.900 0.027
Deterioration level of fuel economy Current level: Future assumptions: Decline 0.5% per year during 2000 and 2010 Decline 0.4% per year during 2010 and 2020
Deterioration level of emission factors Current level: Future assumption: Stabilize at the current level
Sulfur content in the fuel ppm 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 gasoline diesel 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Results and analysis
Age distribution of All Vehicle 50.000 45.000 40.000 35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 2016 10.000 5.000 1995 2002 2009 0.000 1988 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1981
Fuel consumption
Average fuel economy L/100Km 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 LDGV LDDV LDGT1 LDGT2 LDDT HDGV HDDV MC 0.0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fuel Consumption by type (10 4 tons) 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 MC HDDV HDGV LDDT LDGT2 LDGT1 LDDV LDGV 0.0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Fuel consumption increased by 3.6 times from 1995 to 2020
Percentage of fuel consumption by type 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 MC HDDV HDGV LDDT LDGT2 LDGT1 LDDV LDGV LDGT2 occupies only 10% of the total vehicles but consume 35% of the fuel The percentage of LDGVs increased from 9% in 1995 to 20% in 2020
Vehicular emission
Average emission factors (g/km) 25 20 15 10 NO x LDGV LDDV LDGT1 LDGT2 LDDT HDGV HDDV MC 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 HC LDGV LDDV LDGT1 LDGT2 LDDT HDGV HDDV MC 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 CO LDGV LDDV LDGT1 LDGT2 LDDT HDGV HDDV MC 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
NO x emission by types (10 4 tons) 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 NOx 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 LDGV LDDV LDGT1 LDGT2 LDDT HDGV HDDV MC
HC emission by types (10 4 tons) 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 HC 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 LDGV LDDV LDGT1 LDGT2 LDDT HDGV HDDV MC
CO emission by types (10 4 tons) 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 CO 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 LDGV LDDV LDGT1 LDGT2 LDDT HDGV HDDV MC
Total pollutant emission amount (10 4 tons) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 NO x 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 PM 10 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 200 CO 150 100 50 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 4000 CO 2 3000 2000 1000 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 30 25 HC 20 15 10 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 0.12 0.10 SO 2 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Conclusions
Conclusion A Spreadsheet Model is developed The model can Evaluate the energy use and emissions of transportation sector Provide useful information for integration analysis of sustainable urban development
Conclusions Fuel consumption Will increase by 3.6 times from 1995 to 2020 LDGT2 occupies only 10% of the total vehicles but consume 35% of the fuel The percentage of LDGVs will increase from 9% in 1995 to 20% in 2020 Recommended strategies LDGT2 and LDGVs are key control objects for oil saving
Conclusions Vehicular Emissions Emissions of NOx, CO, and HC increase by 15%, 26%, and 49% % respectively from 1995 95 to 2020 The largest emission amount occurs during 2000 and 2010 Recommended strategies Depend only on the measures for new vehicles control is not enough Great efforts are needed on in-use vehicles control
Conclusions Significant role of LDGVs in vehicular emission Emission amount of LDGVs increase rapidly; In 2010, LDGVs become the largest contributor on CO and HC emission; In 2020, LDGVs will produce 39% of CO and 40% of HC emission. Recommended strategies The travel mileage of LGDVs should be further reduced Efficient public transport system should be planned
THANKS
Four Modules: Transportation Module Energy Consumption Module Emission Module Air Quality Module
Scenarios for vehicle targeted measures, fuel-targeted measures, and transport system measures No Meet VKT Demand Transport mode E n e r g y consumption Emissions Air quality Meet environ. Requirement? GIS support system Yes Non-motorized vehicles Motorized vehicles Emission factors Traffic flow distribution P o l i c y directions Walk Bicycle Railway Roadway Cars LDV HDGV Light rail Subway HDDV
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