Category NFR/CRF 1A3b Road transport

JRC Bldg 26A, 16-17 October Expert meeting on the Development of Emission Factors for the Road Transport Sector 1 Use of Guidebook EFs for producing Global Emission Inventories Category NFR/CRF 1A3b Road transport Ulrike Doering, John van Aardenne, Suvi Monni, Valerio Pagliari, Lorenzo Orlandini, Fulgencio SanMartin

JRC Bldg 26A, 16-17 October Expert meeting on the Development of Emission Factors for the Road Transport Sector 2 Goal: Computation of global road transport emissions with the model Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4) on a regional scale EDGAR based on a joint project of RIVM-MNP, Bilthoven (NL), and JRC-IES, Ispra (IT) and stores global emission inventories of direct and indirect greenhouse gases from anthropogenic sources (since 2007, the database is hosted at the JRC, CCU)

JRC Bldg 26A, 16-17 October Expert meeting on the Development of Emission Factors for the Road Transport Sector 3 Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and air pollutants (AP) - air pollutants: NO x, NH 3, CO, NMVOC, HC, BC, PM, PM1, OC, SO 2 - annnual 1990-2005 (& historical emissions >1970) emissions from EDGARv4 including to the extend possible local information, also scenarios (years 2030, 2050) - allocation of EDGAR emissions by country and sector on 0.1 grid. - allocation of EDGAR emissions to monthly data

JRC Bldg 26A, 16-17 October Expert meeting on the Development of Emission Factors for the Road Transport Sector 4 Technology based activity data: Activity Data (ADc,s): {ADc,s, (yr) * TECHAD,c,s (yr) * EOPAD,c,s,TECH (yr)} - National energy consumption of the International Energy Balance (IEB, 2007) Technologies (tad,c,s): - International Statistics from the International Road Federation (IRF, 2007) and also historical data (1963-1989 and 1999-2005) - Country specific statistics of the fleet distribution & information of the emissions standards of the RAINS model (IIASA) End of pipe measures (EOP AD,c,s,t) - Consideration of the introduction of the specific emission regulations (CONCAWE, report 6/1997 and 2/2001; national communications, dieselnet (http://www.dieselnet.com ), UNEP, worldbank report, 1996, CAI ASIA, UNECE Corinair Guidebook, May 2008)

JRC Bldg 26A, 16-17 October Expert meeting on the Development of Emission Factors for the Road Transport Sector 5 Technology based emission factors: {EFAD,c,s,TECH * (1-REDEOP)} Emission Factors (EFAD,c,s,TECH): - EF of CO, NMVOC, N2O, NH3: UNECE Corinair Guidebook (TIER2), May 2008 & IPCC Guidelines (TIER1), 1996 & 2006, some country specific EF (e.g. JAPAN, USA & CANADA), except EF of NOx (EF of RAINS model), of PM, PM1, OC, BC (EF of Quantify project based on BOND et al., 2004) Reduction Percentage (REDEOP) Emissionx,c(yr) = sum{adc,s, (yr) * TECHAD,c,s(yr) * EOPAD,c,s,TECH (yr)} * EFAD,c,s,TECH * (1-REDEOP)

JRC Bldg 26A, 16-17 October Expert meeting on the Development of Emission Factors for the Road Transport Sector 6 Gas evaporation: - AD: National energy consumption of the International Energy Balance (IEB, 2007) for gasoline - Technologies (tad,c,s): International Statistics from the International Road Federation (IRF, 2007) and also historical data (1963-1989 and 1999-2005),Country specific statistics of the fleet distribution & information of the emissions standards of the RAINS model (IIASA) - EF: UNECE Guidebook (Tier 1), May 2008, considering the annual average temperature for the specific country/ climate regions

JRC Bldg 26A, 16-17 October Expert meeting on the Development of Emission Factors for the Road Transport Sector 7 1. CO emissions in ktons for the year 2000, calculated with the CO EF of the Corinair GB, in comparison to other calculated (publications) or reported CO emissions to LRTAP/ UNFCCC. Regions Countries or Regions Corinair GB Other Source Reference AFR AFR 7306 9420 4 Total CEC 3054 4120 9 CEC Czech Republic 331 284 9 CEC Hungary 220 433 9 CEC Poland 747 660 9 CEC Estonia 36 68 9 CEC Latvia 74 75 9 CEC Lithuania 72 1394 9 Total CIS 8182 9701 9 CIS Ukraine 1400 1028 9 CO emissions in ktons (different sources, UNFCC, UNECE, other publications) 25000 20000 CIS Russia 6526 7188 9 EAS CHN 13703 18810 7b Total EAS 19591 20600 4 Total LAM 21804 23700 4 15000 LAM Argentinia 1211 1348 9 Total MEA 13002 10100 5 MEA Turkey 1530 2330 9 Total OCN 2184 2490 4 10000 OCN Australia 1808 2939 9 OCN New Zealand 292 479 9 Total SAS 6511 9028 7b SAS Bangladesh 209 202 7b SAS India 50005331 7061 7b Total SEA 8611 9166 7b SEA Singapore 166 122 7b SEA Thailand 1497 1360 7b SEA Indonesia 3329 4657 7b Total WEU (OECD) 14609 15939 9 WEU France 1709 2720 9 WEU Germany 2181 2452 9 WEU UK 2103 2500 9 WEU Spain 1616 1461 9 Total World in [Mt] 193.54 186 4 0 CO emissions of 10 different regions for the year 2000 y = 1.0756x + 358.71 R 2 = 0.9663 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 CO emissions in ktons, calculated with Corinair EF

JRC Bldg 26A, 16-17 October Expert meeting on the Development of Emission Factors for the Road Transport Sector 8 2. NMVOC emissions in ktons for the year 2000, calculated with the NMVOC EF of the Corinair GB, in comparison to other calculated (publications) or reported NMVOC emissions to LRTAP/ UNFCCC. Regions Countries or Regions Corinair GB Other Source Reference AFR AFR 1107.3 1520.0 4 Total CEC 1580.8 1330.0 4 CEC Czech Republic 219.8 75.0 9 CEC Hungary 141.0 59.4 9 CEC Poland 420.1 135.6 9 CEC Estonia 29.2 9.4 9 CEC Latvia 53.2 8.0 9 CEC Lithuania 44.5 24.4 9 NMVOC emissions in ktons (different sources, UNFCC, UNECE, other publications) 6000 5000 Total CIS 1762.3 750.0 9 CIS Ukraine 253.9 193.5 9 CIS Russia 1334.1 1349.4 9 EAS CHN 2028.5 3164.0 6 4000 Total EAS 2821.7 3200.0 4 Total LAM 2652.2 4260.0 4 LAM Argentinia 146.9 276.5 9 3000 Total MEA 2366.0 1590.0 5 MEA Turkey 278.7 364.9 9 Total OCN 559.2 770.0 4 OCN Australia 444.5 2000 229.7 9 OCN New Zealand 97.9 95.4 9 Total WEU (OECD) 3855.3 2609.3 9 WEU France 542.0 523.4 9 WEU Germany 438.6 1000 278.3 9 WEU UK 551.1 302.9 9 WEU Spain 435.9 296.9 9 Total SAS 1087.5 1140.0 1 0 Total SEA 1469.4 1390.0 1 Total World in [Mt] 22 34 4 NMVOC emissions of 10 different regions for the year 2000 y = 0.9854x - 14.266 R 2 = 0.7718 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 NMVOC emissions in ktons, calculated with Corinair EF

JRC Bldg 26A, 16-17 October Expert meeting on the Development of Emission Factors for the Road Transport Sector 9 3. NO x emissions in ktons for the year 2000, calculated with the NO x EF of the Corinair GB, in comparison to other calculated or reported NO x emissions to LRTAP/ UNFCCC. Regions C_code_IEA Corinair GB RAINS/Quantify Other Sources Reference k Total AFR 241 1271 1170 1 1.086029 Total CEC 641 664 500 1 1.328391 CEC Czech Republic 73 95 189 9 0.499826 CEC Hungary 49 64 100 9 0.638953 CEC Poland 159 159 245 9 0.649087 CEC Estonia 9 14 13 9 1.004326 6000 CEC Latvia 12 20 16 9 1.246735 NOx emissions of 10 different regions for the year 2000 CEC Lithuania 21 25 25 9 1.001605 Total CIS 754 5000 1315 1410 9 0.932345 CIS Ukraine 96 179 154 9 1.160214 CIS Russia 580 943 646 9 1.459657 Total CHN 952 4000 1720y = 1.1183x 1630 + 2.3317 1 1.055153 Total EAS 1330 2423 R 2 = 0.9557 2800 1 0.865192 Total LAM 2913 3000 2604 2940 1 0.885794 LAM Argentinia 222 246 391 9 0.627571 LAM Mexico 499 700 675 9 1.037881 Total MEA 1497 2000 2505 2090 1 1.198471 MEA Turkey 193 358 371 9 0.963606 Total OCN 293 323 590 1 0.547781 OCN Australia 250 1000 275 319 9 0.862039 OCN New Zealand 37 41 61 9 0.672193 Total SAS 695 0 1348 1760 1 0.765962 Total SEA 844 1361 1680 1 0.809947 Total WEU (OECD) 3538 3910 4890 9 0.799491 WEU France 661 598 908 9 0.659016 WEU Germany 988 632 996 9 0.634187 WEU UK 694 681 818 9 0.833268 WEU Spain 404 472 572 9 0.82444 NOx emissions in ktons (different sources, UNFCC, UNECE, other publications) Total World in [Mt] 20.1 27.3 29.9 1 0.912408 y = 0.7849x - 33.209 R 2 = 0.8476 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 NOx emissions in ktons, calculated with Corinair EF or RAINS/Quantify EF RAINS/Quantify Corinair GB

JRC Bldg 26A, 16-17 October Expert meeting on the Development of Emission Factors for the Road Transport Sector 10 Global NO x emissions in ktons for the year 2005

JRC Bldg 26A, 16-17 October Expert meeting on the Development of Emission Factors for the Road Transport Sector 11 Conclusions - For CO and NMVOC the EF are at close range to other used EFs, but the uncertainty of NMVOC EFs is much higher (>50%) for the calculation. - Differences of emission calculations occur due to differences between national and international statistics of the saled fuel and the fleet distribution (particular motorcycles!). - The Corinair Guidebook EF for NOx seems a little bit too low.

JRC Bldg 26A, 16-17 October Expert meeting on the Development of Emission Factors for the Road Transport Sector 12 Next step: Comparison the results of the EDGAR model with the results of the next COPERT version. Thank you for your attention!

JRC Bldg 26A, 16-17 October Expert meeting on the Development of Emission Factors for the Road Transport Sector 13 CO references: Reference No. Title/Model Author Year 4 EDGAR 3.2 Aardenne et al. 2005 5 IEA/SMP Fulton, L. and G. Eads. IEA / SMP Model Documentation and Reference Case Projections 2004 7b REAS FOR_HTAP_FROM_REAS file from Jun-ichi Kurokawa National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba; delivered 27 Aug 2008 2008 9 UNFCCC National Communication, 2008 2008

JRC Bldg 26A, 16-17 October Expert meeting on the Development of Emission Factors for the Road Transport Sector 14 NMVOC references: Reference No. 1 4 5 6 9 Title/Model Quantify EDGAR 3.2 IEA/SMP CoppertIII UNFCCC Author Jens Borken et al., Road transport's echaust emissions in the year 2000 - country and gridwise Aardenne et al. Fulton, L. and G. Eads. IEA / SMP Model Documentation and Reference Case Projections Hao Cai a. Shaodong Xie. Estimation of vehicular emission inventories in China from 1980 to 2005, Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 41, Is. 39, pp 8963-8979, 2007 National Communiction, 2008 Year unpublished 2005 07/2004 2007 2008

JRC Bldg 26A, 16-17 October Expert meeting on the Development of Emission Factors for the Road Transport Sector 15 NOx references: Reference No. Title/Model Author Year 1 Quantify Jens Borken et al., Road transport's echaust emissions in the year 2000 - country and gridwise unpublished 9 UNECE/UNFCC C National Communiction, 2008 and HTAP emissions 2008

JRC Bldg 26A, 16-17 October Expert meeting on the Development of Emission Factors for the Road Transport Sector 16 Global NMVOC emissions in ktons for the year 2005

JRC Bldg 26A, 16-17 October Expert meeting on the Development of Emission Factors for the Road Transport Sector 17 Global CO emissions in ktons for the year 2005