Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Dec 19, 2017 Technologies for Urban Transport Dhar, Subash; Shukla, P.R. Publication date: 2013 Link back to DTU Orbit Citation (APA): Dhar, S., & Shukla, P. R. (2013). Technologies for Urban Transport [Sound/Visual production (digital)]. Experience Sharing Workshop in preparation of Low-carbon Comprehensive Mobility Plans in Indian Cities, Udaipur, India, 22/08/2013 General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.
Technologies for Urban Transport P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India Subash Dhar UNEP Risø Centre Roskilde, Denmark Experience Sharing Workshop on Low Carbon Comprehensive Mobility Plans in India 22 23 August, 2013 Udaipur
Contents 1. Trends of technological change 2. Scenarios : National 3. Conclusions
Trends for technological change
Motorisation India has very low motorisation but is increasing At similar income levels of motorisation can be different Data Source: World Bank
Average Fuel Economy Cross Country 240 220 Tested Fuel economy (gco2/km) 10.3 9.5 8.6 7.8 6.9 6.0 5.2 2005 2008 200 180 160 140 120 Tested Feul Economy (lge/100km) India Russia Portugal Italy Malta France Japan Belgium Poland Spain Czech Republic Hungary Slovenia Romania Slovakia Austria EU 27 Denmark Ireland Greece Indonesia Turkey Luxembourg Brazil Egypt UK Netherlands Cyprus Mexico Germany Chile Argentina Malaysia South Africa Finland China Ukraine Estonia Lithuania Latvia Thailand Sweden USA Australia Registrations 1 million 10 millions Source : Cuenot, F., and L. Fulton. 2011. International comparison of light-duty vehicle fuel economy and related characteristics. OECD/IEA, Paris.
Technology Options
Scenarios : National
Architecture for Transport Scenarios Changes due to price of carbon Base (BAU) GDP 8% CAGR CO2 3.6 deg C Changes due to targeted strategies + a carbon budget equivalent to conventional scenario Conventional Low Carbon Scenario GDP ~ 8% CAGR CO2 2 deg C Sustainable Low Carbon Scenario GDP - Pegged to 8% CAGR CO2 2 deg C Sustainable Mobility i. Public Transport ii. NMT iii. Urban Design iv. High speed rail Sustainable Technologies i. Electric Vehicle's ii. Fuel Economy iii. ICT - Navigation Sustainable Fuels i. Bio-fuels ii. CNG iii. Clean Electricity Sustainable Logistics i. Dedicated Rail Co. ii. Coal by wire iii. Regional Pipelines Passenger Passenger & Freight Freight
Emission Identity
Mass Transit Options Wide diversity in costs and emission reduction potentials Electricity based options become attractive in low carbon scenarios Bus Rapid Transit Light Rail system Metro Capacity (passengers per line in one hour) 10,000 to 20,000 (Sometimes going to 40,000 Bogota BRT) 10,000 to 20,000 12,000-45,000 (Sometimes going upto to 80,000 Hong Kong Metro) Costs (Million USD per km of length)** Existing Networks in 2011** (km) CO2 per passenger ** (gco2/pkm) 5 to 27 13 to 40 27 to 330 2139 15000 10000 14 to 22 4 to 22 3 to 21 Typical Fuel Diesel Electricity Electricity ** Data from IEA, 2012 Energy Technology Perspectives 2012
Alternative Drive Train Technologies Drive Range Battery Electric vehicles 100-160 km for cars, 60 km for 2 wheelers Hybrid Gasoline Same as gasoline cars Drive Train Electric Motor Internal Combustion Engine Existing Vehicles Energy consumption per pkm (w.r.t to a Gasoline engine) ** 120 Million Electric 2 wheelers in China, Plug in Hybrids 20-50 km on battery alone, remaining using ICE ICE, Electric Motor More than 5.8 million vehicles globally sold till end of 2012 Fuel Cells Same as gasoline cars Fuel Cell, Electric Motor Few hundred globally 70-80% lower 11-22% lower 20-60% lower 55% - 70% lower Typical Fuel Electricity Electricity / Gasoline /Diesel Electricity / Gasoline /Diesel Hydrogen ** IEA, 2009 Transport Energy & CO2; Kobayachi et. al., 2009 Energy efficiency technologies for road 11 vehicles. Energy Efficiency 2, 125 137; Plotkin et. al., 2009 Multi path transportation futures study : vehicle 12 characterization and scenario analyses
Scenario storylines: Fuel Economy BAU Storyline - Fuel economy standards for 2015 and 2020 announced by BEE are implemented by the government. Increasing incomes mean that an increasing weightage for safety, reliability and comfort from car buyers. Increasing preference for medium size cars Fuel Economy storyline The vision of 4 lit / 100 km in 2030 according to GFEI. The efficiencies can not be delivered by conventional drive train technologies and rather it is technologies such as hybrids which would be required for this scenario especially if vehicle weights increase. The improvements in engine technologies for cars also diffuse into 2 wheelers and buses
Fuel Efficiency: BAU and Fuel Economy Corporate Average Fuel Consumption (litres (petrol)/ 100 km) 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 CAFC Standards 2015 and 2020 CAFC 2015 CAFC 2020 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Fuel Economy (Cars) (lit gasoline / 100 km) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 BAU Fuel Economy
CO2 Emissions transport: BAU & BAU + Fuel Economy Cumulative reductions between 2010 and 2050 are 1,696 Million tonnes (*) Natural Gas emissions include both emissions from energy and fugitive emissions Emission Intensity of Grid (Million tco2/gwh) Scenario 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Base Case 0.99 0.94 0.86 0.74 0.69
Fuel Mix: BAU & LCS
Mitigation Wedges : Transport
Conclusions 1. Fuel Economy can deliver mitigation plus cobenefits for environment and energy security 2. Cleaning of electricity is crucial for a low carbon transport 3. Bio fuels are essential for a low carbon strategy
Thank You Questions / Suggestions