Ron Schoff Senior Program Manager, EPRI USEA Energy Supply Forum Washington, DC October 2, 2014 2014 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. 2014 Electric Power Research All rights reserved. Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 1
Let s Start with the Customer 2
The Electric Power System ONE WAY 3
U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) Power System Decarbonization EPRI Prism (2009) 3500 3000 2500 EIA Base Case 2009 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 4
Emerging Technologies Driving Customer Engagement 5
Increasing Variable Renewable Generation 320 GW Wind + 134 GW Solar = ~8% of Global Installed Capacity 6
Global Annual Additions Solar PV Source: CleanTechnica 7
The Integrated Grid is about Enabling the Customer Enable Customer Resources to Benefit the Power System 8
So Where are We Headed? 9
The Power System Looking Forward Generation Becomes More Flexible Consumers Become Energy Producers T & D Becomes More Controllable and Resilient Loads Become More Interactive and Dynamic A More Dynamic End-to-End Power System 10
Insights From a Real Power System Hourly PV+Wind Generation (GW) Germany 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 ~36 GW ~0 GW 2011 2012 2013 Insights from a Dynamic System ~80 days/yr variable generation at below 5% of installed capacity Maximum Hourly Ramp ~10 GW Maximum Hourly Down Ramp ~7 GW The Scale of Balancing May Become Unpredictable and Dynamic Data from Klaus Kleinekorte, Amprion, German TSO. 11
Balancing the System With Central Generation ~72 Central generation plants (@ 500 MW each) needed on days with minimum PV + Wind. 12
Balancing the System The Scale of Energy Storage Needed ~7 Million units (5kW) 60 X Global grid connected battery storage 13
Balancing the System The Scale of Customer Resources Needed (Supplied Homes) (German Households) ~89 out of every 100 homes needed to supply resource, assuming each contributes 1kW. 14
Diverging Trend Installed Capacity Surpassing Peak Demand Data Sources: ENTSO-e and EIA 15
A Real Power System When T&D System Becomes Dynamic 200 150 100 50 Power Flowing from Transmission to Distribution MW 0-50 -100 PV Generation Germany [MW] -150 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Trend 25,000 0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 Reverse Power Flowing from Distribution to Transmission Data from Klaus Kleinekorte, Amprion, German TSO. 16
Power System Transformation + Safe 17
How Can We Advance the Conversation? 18
Integrated Grid Action Plan Assessment Framework Interconnection Technical Requirements Integrated Planning & Operations Enabling Policy and Regulations 19
Defining the Scenario - Assumptions Markets and Policy Subsidies and Incentives Utility Obligations Reliability Requirements Energy and Capacity Markets Ancillary Services and Flexibility Bulk System Resource Mix Capacity Resources Transmission Characteristics and Plans Technologies (HVDC, etc) New build assumptions Distribution System Expected Renewable Penetration Load Growth, Efficiency Technologies (voltage control, smart inverters, etc) Distributed Generation and Microgrids Societal Factors Cost of Carbon Value of Reliability Market Structures Energy Efficiency 20
Critical Research Areas for the Integrated Grid Architecture for the Integrated Grid Information and Communication Infrastructure Enterprise Interoperability Distributed Controls Open Application Platforms Cyber Security Integrating the Customer Energy Efficiency Voltage Response Demand Response Local Generation and Storage (EV) Resiliency Customer Services CIS Integrated Planning and Operations Integrated Models Advanced Simulation Real Time Systems Distributed Controls and Demand Response Risk-Based Forecasting and Analytics Visualization Advanced Asset Management Sensors and Communications Advanced Analytics Maintenance and Diagnostics Reliability and Resiliency Visualization and Decision Support 21
The Path Forward We need an integrated approach to transform the power system EPRI s current research on The Integrated Grid is ready to be applied Industry and policy/regulatory leaders need to coalesce on key research imperatives for the transformation Integrated The Whole is Greater than the Sum of its Parts Transforming the Power System It is a Journey not a Destination 22
Together Shaping the Future of Electricity Contact Me: Ron Schoff (rschoff@epri.com; 704.595.2554) Join the Discussion: The Integrated Grid Online Community http://integratedgrid.epri.com 23
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