WEEKLY CHANGE WEEKLY CHANGE "Depreciation slowed last week as compact and entry level cars took a breather and most truck segments held their value. Anil Goyal, Vice President of Automotive Valuation and Analytics 0% -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% -0.8% -$8-0.10% -$16-0.25% -$44-0.50% -$36-0.18% -$93-0.56% -$89-0.23% -$164-0.54% -$54-0.34% -$41-0.38% -$42 CARS -0.37% -1.0% -$80-0.87% 0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.3% -0.4% -0.5% -$18-0.15% -$8-0.06% -$15-0.07% -$4-0.02% -$1 0% -$8-0.06% -$4-0.03% -$66-0.23% -$24-0.16% $0 0% -$12-0.07% -$14-0.26% -$43-0.37% -$21 TRUCKS -0.13% -0.6% -0.7% -$90-0.56% Model Years: 2007-2013, Volume Weighted Wholesale Average Values, Weekly Change from 8/28/15 to 9/4/15 Depreciation Trend Slows Volume-weighted, overall car values decreased by 0.37% last week. Full-size cars took a hard hit this week declining 0.87%, more than twice the overall weekly car average. Luxury Level cars declined 0.18%, their smallest weekly decrease in twenty weeks. Volume-weighted, overall truck values decreased by 0.13% last week. Compact Pickups and Full-size SUVs weekly adjustment has been less than the overall truck segment average for six consecutive weeks.
Sentiment from the Auction Lanes Our editors and personnel attend about 60 auctions every week across the country to provide key insights: Crazy day here today with many older cars bringing strong prices. -Doug from TN Cars and trucks under $10,000 seemed to be in demand today. -Gene from PA Good sale with strong internet activity at the high-line sale today. -k from CA Vehicle volume and buyer attendance were both up this week with a good overall sales percentage. -Bob from WA Prices were holding steady this week with good auction attendance. -Richard from TX Trucks with high miles still bring good money here. -k from MI Industry Events Black Book personnel will be attending several upcoming events. Among them: tember 22-24, 2015 Orlando, FL $/Gal $4.00 $3.75 $3.50 $3.25 $3.00 $2.75 $2.50 $2.25 $2.00 U.S. Average Fuel Prices Association of Consumer Vehicle Lessors tember 23-25, 2015 Hollywood, FL Vehicle Highlight Gasoline Fuel Prices Steadily Dropping Diesel Gasoline price decreased last week by $0.127 to $2.51, lowest in nineteen weeks. Diesel price decreased last week by $0.047 to $2.514, lowest since y 20, 2009. 2016 Scion FR-S Coupe: Rear wheel drive Sporty Car with an MSRP of $25,305 equipped with six-speed manual and $26,405 with six-speed automatic. Only one engine is offered, a 200-hp 2.0-liter flat-four. Close competitors include the Subaru BRZ and Hyundai Genesis Coupe. Source: EIA This week s report includes our Monthly Edition Supplement on Specialty kets. 2
SPECIALTY MARKETS: COLLECTIBLE CARS Monterey Auctions Blast Through $400,000,000 The Monterey Peninsula was certainly the place to be for car enthusiasts this summer. In addition to the world famous Pebble Beach Concours d Elegance, won this year by a stunning 1924 Isotta Fraschini Cabriolet, there were several high end collectible car auctions, which sold hundreds of the best cars in existence for a total in excess of $400,000,000. Several model specific records were set, as has come to be the norm in Monterey. Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty kets 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% Percent Change from ust 2014 to ust 2015 33.94% 26.70% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 5.68% 3.31% 3.49% 1.04% Muscle Cars Pony Cars American Classics Sports Cars Exotic Cars Classic Trucks All of the auction houses hit it out of the park this year, with RM Sothebys coming in at $172 million, Gooding at $128 m, Mecum at $41 m, Bonhams at $46 m, and Russo and Steele at $10,000,000 m. The average sell through percentage was roughly 60%; I m surprised it was not a few points higher, given the concentration of well-funded collectors and the red hot climate of the market. The million dollar sales get all the attention, but several relatively less expensive cars saw some huge increases, including 1970s era Porsche 930 turbos, Mercedes 280 SE 3.5s, and Maserati Ghiblis. Recent Notable Sales Included: 1970 Plymouth Hemi Cuda Conv $2,500,000 (Mecum) 1969 Lamborghini Miura S $2,500,000 (Mecum) 1971 Ferrari Daytona Spider $2,600,000 (Bonhams) 1955 Lancia Aurelia Spider $2,200,000 (Bonhams) 1961 Ferrari Cal Spider SWB $16,800,000 (Gooding) 1967 Ferrari 275 GTB/4 Coupe $3,800,000 (Gooding) 1998 McLaren F1 LM Coupe $13,700,000 (RMS) 1964 Ferrari 250 LM Coupe $17,600,000 (RMS) 1958 Dual Ghia Convertible $412,000 (R&S) 2005 Porsche Carrera GT Coupe $781,000 (R&S) Photo courtesy of RM Sothebys 3
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 t Jan-15 e y Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 t Jan-15 e y SPECIALTY MARKETS: RECREATIONAL VEHICLES RV Activity at Wholesale Auctions Continues to rease Once again, the used RV market throws us a curveball to keep us on our toes. This past month brought us another mixed result, but this time it was the towables decreasing, while the motorized units went up. As we head into the last little bit of summer and approach fall, we are seeing the volume of vehicles sold at auction continue to decline. Typical fall patterns predict that values will start to decrease as well, as many dealers prepare to switch their focus from stocking and selling RVs to end of season servicing and winterization. Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty kets 46000 44000 Motor Home Value Trends 42000 40000 38000 36000 34000 32000 30000 For Motor Homes (including Class A, B, and C) Average selling price was $40,237, up $1,179 (3.1%) from previous month One year ago, the average selling price was $33,396 Auction volume was down 20% from previous month 12000 11500 Travel Trailer and Fifth Wheel Value Trends 11000 10500 10000 9500 9000 For Towables (including Travel Trailers, Fifth Wheels, and Camping Trailers) Average selling price was $10,844, down $296 (2.6%) from previous month One year ago, the average selling price was $10,040 Auction volume was down 27% from previous month 4
SPECIALTY MARKETS: POWERSPORTS Powersports ket Begins Late Summer line Personal watercraft and jet boats see large declines as the seasons change, while the remainder of the powersports segments make small changes from last month. ATVs and Utility Vehicles should begin to increase in value as the weather turns cooler. Scott Yarbrough, Motorcycle & Powersports Editor 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% Motorcycle & Powersports Percent Change ust to tember 2015 0.60% 0.10% 0.00% -0.30% -0.90% -0.90% -0.80% -1.40% -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -6.00% -4.90% -5.40% Personal watercraft are down $328 (5.4 percent) and the jet boats are down $1,028 (4.9 percent) on average compared to last month. Both of these represent larger than normal declines. Snowmobiles are up slightly once again this month by $23 on average, and will likely see bigger increases over the next few months. ATV and utility vehicle values have only changed by a few dollars from last month, which is somewhat surprising considering the time of year as fall farming and outdoors activities typically drive up prices on these units. All of the traditional on road bike segments (On/Off Road (Dual Sport), Scooter, and Street) are down roughly one percent, with the exception of the cruiser segment which is down a bit more at $108 (1.4 percent). 5
Monthly Changes SPECIALTY MARKETS: HEAVY DUTY Truck Value Depreciation Stable Heavy Duty Trucks continued to depreciate in ust, with older Construction and Vocational units posting exactly the same dollar and percent changes as it did in y. All segments are dropping in value, some more than the previous month and some less, although they are all grouped tighter than the movement from e to y. Below, we have listed a snapshot of these value changes. Charles Cathey, Editor Heavy Duty Truck Data Average Wholesale Value Changes (Late Model) +$500 $0 -$500 -$1,000 -$1,500 -$2,000 -$2,500 Constructional/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors Constructional/Vocational Ov er the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors MODEL DATE Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change YEARS 09/01/15 85,608-486 -0.6% 79,943-681 -0.8% 70,763-710 -1.0% 2013-2014 08/01/15 86,094-470 -0.5% 80,624-727 -0.9% 71,473-882 -1.2% 2013-2014 2013-2014 HD construction/vocational segment dropped $486 (.6%) in ust on average compared with a drop of $470 (.5%) in y. 2013-2014 HD over the road tractor segment dropped $681 (.8%) in ust on average compared with a drop of $727 (.9%) in y. 2013-2014 HD regional tractor segment dropped $710 (1.0%) in ust on average compared with a drop of $882 (1.2%) in y. Constructional/Vocational Ov er the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors MODEL DATE Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change YEARS 09/01/15 41,367-280 -0.7% 37,232-359 -1.0% 29,429-330 -1.1% 2005-2012 08/01/15 41,647-280 -0.7% 37,591-409 -1.1% 29,759-444 -1.5% 2005-2012 2005-2012 HD construction/vocational segment dropped $280 (.7%) in ust on average compared with an identical drop of $280 (.7%) in y. 2005-2012 HD over the road tractor segment dropped $359 (1.0%) in ust on average compared with a drop of $409 (1.1%) in y. 2005-2012 HD regional tractor segment dropped $330 (1.1%) in ust on average compared with a drop of $444 (1.5%) in y. 6
SPECIALTY MARKETS: MEDIUM DUTY Medium Duty Segment in a Steady State of Depreciation The continued decline of diesel fuel is good news for the trucking industry. Bret Swanson, Editor Medium Duty Truck Data tember is showing us that the Medium Duty segment has been staying in a steady state of depreciation. When we compare the same aged trucks year over year, this is what we see. The one to two year old trucks came down on average, $412 (-0.9%) one year ago. The average decline for the same group was $504 (-1.1%) this past month. Looking at the four to ten year old trucks, on average, they came down $244 (-1.2%) last year and this past month, that group depreciated an average of $236 (-1.1%). Last month we stated how the average price per gallon of diesel was continuing its downward trek. I am sure that the trucking industry is happy to see that that price is still falling. The national average now stands at $2.51 per gallon. Compare the current price to the average price this time last year and you see that we are paying $1.30 less per gallon. That kind of decline can help make a little more profit when moving goods around the country. DATE Medium Duty MODEL Medium Duty Value $ Change % Change YEARS DATE Value $ Change % Change MODEL YEARS 09/01/15 20,748-236 -1.1% 2005-2012 09/01/15 46,171-504 -1.1% 2013-2014 09/01/14 20,307-244 -1.2% 2004-2011 09/01/14 44,715-412 -0.9% 2012-2013 The price per gallon of diesel is the lowest it s been since the week ending y 20, 2009! Diesel Price Changes $0 -$0.20 +$0.00 -$0.40 -$0.60 -$0.80 -$1.00 -$1.20 -$1.40 -$1.19 08/03/15 -$1.23 08/10/15 -$1.22 08/17/15 -$1.26 08/24/15 -$1.30 08/31/15 Change/Week Change/Year 1745 N. Brown Rd., Suite 130, Lawrenceville, GA 30043 1.866.452.1400 www.blackbookauto.com info@blackbookauto.com Opt-in to receive reports from Black Book at http://www.blackbookauto.com/insights/market-insights 7