1 AUTOMOTIVE TRANSITIONS: THE CAR TODAY The City View on Automated Driving EUCAD 2018 Transport Research Arena Vienna 2018
2 THE CITY VIEW ON AUTOMATED DRIVING EUCAD 2018
3 THE CITY VIEW ON AUTOMATED DRIVING EUCAD 2018 Our Scale
4 THE CITY VIEW ON AUTOMATED DRIVING EUCAD 2018
5 AUTOMOTIVE TRANSITIONS: THE CAR TODAY
6 THE CITY VIEW ON AUTOMATED DRIVING EUCAD 2018 Business models and the blurring of boundaries Manufacturers (OEMs) already assuming there will be a decline in private car ownership and rise of shared access OEMs investing in ridesharing, taxi services and autonomous technology Next 15-20 years will be a transition period - existing service models will change A combination of connectivity and autonomy will fundamentally change the relationship between private and public transport
7 THE CITY VIEW ON AUTOMATED DRIVING EUCAD 2018 How might Connected & Autonomous Vehicles develop?
8 THE CITY VIEW ON AUTOMATED DRIVING EUCAD 2018 Polis discussion paper on AVs Why? To address optimism bias about AVs To encourage a more balanced debate (about possible positive & negative mobility outcomes) Promote discussion among city/regional transport authorities on measures to maximise benefit from autonomous vehicles
9 THE CITY VIEW ON AUTOMATED DRIVING EUCAD 2018 Polis Polis is a network of city and regional authorities Promotes innovation in transport for sustainable cities and regions Created in 1989 Brussels secretariat 68 members 3 main activities: Facilitating knowledge transfer among its members (networking) Many thematic members-only Working Groups, including one dealing with traffic management, ITS and other technologies Policy: the voice of cities & regions vis-à-vis the EU institutions and industry Projects: supporting members in joining European projects Two papers published recently generating a lot of attention: MaaS (September 2017) and AVs (January 2018)
10 THE CITY VIEW ON AUTOMATED DRIVING EUCAD 2018
11 THE CITY VIEW ON AUTOMATED DRIVING EUCAD 2018 Possible outcomes of deployment of AVs (1) Travel behaviour Positive - reduction in private car ownership in favour of public transport, shared mobility & soft modes Negative - more motorised trips to detriment of active travel and public health Spatial Positive - more public space created by redundancy of parking which must be put to other functional uses Negative - urban sprawl and longer commuting trips Social Positive - enhance transport provision to persons with limited transport access by reducing cost of service provision Negative - increased social division and inequality with mass transit replaced by less inclusive mobility business models
THE CITY VIEW ON AUTOMATED DRIVING EUCAD 2018 Possible outcomes of deployment of AVs (2) Road safety Positive - driver distraction reduction and road rules compliance Unknown - interaction with Vulnerable Road Users Negative fallibility of technology Traffic management/efficiency through a C-ITS approach could enable: Positive - richer data for traffic and asset management and improved vehicle control Negative - improved traffic efficiency leads to more vehicles on road Negative - More pain than gain in short-medium term due to co-existence and higher safety margins Infrastructure Investments depend on AV implementation path mitigate burden on public funds If significant investments required, new business models must be found
THE CITY VIEW ON AUTOMATED DRIVING EUCAD 2018 Key issues for cities and regions Policy, planning & urban development Holistic approach to AVs Personal security & safety Tackling predicted growth in trips/km driven Managing change
THE CITY VIEW ON AUTOMATED DRIVING EUCAD 2018 Recommendations from the Polis AV paper Keep discussions grounded in reality Promote engagement of transportation/road authorities in AV discussions/developments to prepare for and steer their implementation Consider how the role and responsibilities of the authority may change with the advent of automation and new mobility services Ensure automation developments are not purely industrial policy driven, but also support transport policy and benefit citizens Foster partnership and dialogue
AUTOMOTIVE TRANSITIONS: THE CAR TODAY
THE CITY VIEW ON AUTOMATED DRIVING EUCAD 2018
18 AUTOMOTIVE TRANSITIONS: THE CAR TODAY Thank you iainmacbeth@tfl.gov.uk