BRE National Solar Centre Ray Noble Opportunities for Solar following the UK Solar Strategy ARPower Solar CPD Event, 29th July 2014 Part of the BRE Trust
National Solar Centre Opened in April 2013 by Greg Barker DECC Minister to deliver independent research led knowledge and guidance to support the growth of the Solar industry in the UK. Based at the Eden Project in Cornwall Solar Technology Test Site will commence soon Support & Advice www.bre.co.uk/nsc
National Solar Centre location - support for all NSC Office NSC test site The BRE NSC were advisers on the Solar Strategy
1. The Governments Solar Strategy - Published in two parts October 2013 & April 2014 - Sets out the future deployment at 12GW to 20GW - Presently DECC think we are at 2.8GW deployed - Unfortunately DECC, National Grid, Network Suppliers & Ofgem cannot keep up with the rapid deployment of Solar - Growth of Solar is fuelled by the over 60% fall in installed prices over 3 years
2. Present Deployment - Solar deployment is exceeding all DECC predictions now 4.90GW 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 Part 1 (Oct 2013) Part 2 (Apr 2014) Budget 20GW Ambition Actual 0 Result another Emergency Consultation!!!
3. Highlights of the Solar Strategy - No change to FIT s - No change to ROC s for under 5MW - roof or field projects - Over 5MW Solar Fields to be curtailed Consultation underway - A focus on Solar to be installed on all types of Buildings - Solar Fields on previously used land OK, avoid good agricultural land - Permitted development for large roofs to be changed (Consultation in June) - BIPV on new build will be encouraged (improved aesthetics) - Presently over 530,000 Domestics have Solar - DECC would like to see this double by 2016 - Community Solar projects being encouraged (possibly up to 10MW) - Ofgem to speed up registration process - A number of other changes, barriers being investigated including grid, EPCs, roof lease terms, multiple projects digression, etc - UK to install 0.5GW of Solar on Government Estate by 2016 with a further 1GW to follow
4. Support mechanisms - Feed in Tariff - Subsidy is there to help stimulate the market - Paid for 20 years - Index linked to RPI - Export tariff 4.77p/kWh - Present ROI around 12% Installed after 1/4/2014 Description (p/kwh) 4kW or less, newbuild 14.38 4kW or less, retrofit 14.38 greater than 4kW but not exceeding 10kW 13.03 greater than 10kW but not exceeding 50kW 12.13 greater than 50kW but not exceeding 100kW 10.34 greater than 100kW but not exceeding 150kW 10.34 greater than 150kW but not exceeding 250kW 9.89 greater than 250kW 6.38 Stand-alone (not attached to a building and not wired to provide electricity to an occupied building) 6.38
5. Feed in Tariff Digression mechanism - Automatic adjustment of tariff based on deployment in a previous 3 month period - Reductions generally 0% or a maximum of 3.5% - 9 month rule 3.5% digression even if no deployment Degression bands and trigger points 0-10kW 10 50kW >50kW and stand alone point 1 100MW 50MW 50MW 0% point 2 200MW 100MW 100MW 3.5% point 3 250MW 150MW 150MW 7% point 4 300MW 200MW 200MW 14% point 5 >300MW >200MW >200MW 28% % degression
6. ROCs - Subsidy overlaps with FITs above 50kWp - Paid for 20 years - One ROC worth around 4.257p/kWh - Electricity sold to the highest bidder, generally around 5.2p/kWh, but higher with a PPA - Present ROI around 12% ROCs/MWh and bands 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 Building-mounted 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 Ground mounted 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 - New replacement to ROCs for projects above 5MW being introduced Contract for Difference, bid for an allocation of 50M / year pot - Paid for 15 years
7. Why Solar - Solar prices continue to fall and is now 30% cheaper than Offshore Wind - Grid electricity prices set to double by 2020 - Solar electricity predicted to be cheaper than fossil fuel generation during this decade - Solar already cheaper than Nuclear - Shell New Lens Report Solar will dominate the Global energy market this century, predicts 37.7% of the Worlds energy will come from Solar - Sir David King (ex Gov. Chief Scientist) calling for an Apollo movement in Solar which could provide 25% of the Worlds energy by 2025 - IPCC report on Climate Change must move away from Fossil fuel generation - Storage, the holy grail of Solar, will be viable within 2 to 4 years
8. Solar Fields - Guidance produced by the NSC - Some projects initially were poorly sited - NSC recommends only land which is flat, well screened by hedges / trees, away from roads and houses, invisible within the landscape and of poor quality soil should be used - NSC also produced guidance on Biodiversity potential of Solar Farms, supported all of the NGO s - NFU are big supporters of Solar Fields which they see as being another crop that farmers can produce - See www.bre.co.uk/nsc
9. Good Solar Fields are virtually invisible
10. Large Roofs - Large Solar roofs are virtually invisible, those below 50kWp need no Planning permission but large roofs do! Government will change this soon - Roofs are ideal for Solar as electricity is generated where it is used
11. Community Solar - Solar on Roofs or Solar in Fields can be owned, or part owned, by the Community - Good Developers offering Community share arrangements - Investment for the Community provides returns significantly more than an ISA - Electricity sold to the grid or through a PPA at present - But Government investigating changes to supply rules so that Community generators can use this electricity in their own homes - Government want the big 60,000 not the big 6
12. Domestic Roofs - Over 530,000 houses now have Solar and Government would like this to grow to 1million by 2016 - Many users have become more energy efficient overall as a result
13. Domestic Integrated Solar - Integrated systems should virtually make the Solar invisible - Covering half the roof is approximately the equivalent generation as electricity used in the house - new products
14. Solar Canopies over car parks - Large surface car parks are ideal for Solar canopies. Electricity can be fed into the adjacent building - Growth Electric Vehicles and Plug in Hybrids charged with Solar electricity will make the vehicle truly Green
15. BIPV - Making Solar part of the fabric of buildings it started in Newcastle in 1996!
16. BIPV demonstration projects
17. Solar Performance in the UK - Solar products continue to improve in efficiency - Generation is significantly better than originally predicted - NSC working with the Met Office to link measured light levels to generation to improve industry predictions - Initial indications by Met Office suggest that light levels are improving year on year which could be the result of climate change - Newcastle now around 960kWh/kWp (was 800)
18. Storage - Until very recently DECC and National Grid thought that storage was 10/20 years away - The motor industry are developing storage at a rapid rate for EV s and super Hybrid s - Germany has already put in place a Domestic storage program - In the UK it is expected that Domestic storage will become viable within 2/4 years - For those with Solar systems it would mean an end to exporting their high value electricity - Storage can also be used to help balance the grid
19. Public love Solar This survey was carried out by DECC!!!
20. Future - Solar is becoming a part of the energy mix in the UK - Latest National Grid figures indicate that Solar produced around 3.5% of the electricity requirements in June (up to 8% 0f daytime load) - This will double by May 2015, expect around 9GW - Solar is here to stay and is a threat to existing generators - Solar allows everyone to be an electricity generator
Thank You rn.solarbipv@gmail.com nobler@bre.co.uk www.bre.co.uk/nsc