The Age of Vehicle Automation: Opportunities for Transportation Providers BusCon 2017 Indianapolis, Indiana September 12, 2017
About WSP (formerly WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff) Global professional services firm with over 35,000 employees Portfolio in Transportation, Buildings, Power/Energy and Environmental sectors Over ten years of active practice in connected/ automated vehicle market Mcity Ann Arbor, Michigan (Source: University of Michigan)
The Race to Driverless Source: Google
The Race to Driverless
Traffic Safety What if cars (and trucks, and buses ) no longer crashed?
Changes in Roadway Capacity AV ONLY Under low-volume conditions, vehicles travel at high speeds with sufficient spacing As volume increases, speed decreases as vehicle headways decrease If AVs could operate at high speed with low headways, huge potential capacity increases
IS THIS OUR FUTURE?
Changes in Demand & Opportunity Will new segments of the population become drivers?
Changes in Car Ownership Model What if this increasingly became this
Potential to Change the Car Ownership Paradigm
Coupling of AV and 11 Electrification
Ford plans to have a Level 4 vehicle in 2021, no gas pedal, no steering wheel - Former Ford Motor Company CEO Mark Fields Bosch said it saw level three vehicles being released at the end of the decade, and level four driving not before 2025 - Reuters We believe we have the chance to make level three, level four and level five doable [in 2021] - BMW
Levels of Automation
Is this a connected car? Source: Google
AV CV+1
What is connected? Cooperative communications systems Linking vehicles together, to the roadside, and to the cloud Interoperable systems that work across all equipment and manufacturers
CV and AV on a collision course
Role of CV in the AV Space AV sees with sensors and must interpret environment Sensors detect green indication, computer knows green means GO No context beyond what human driver can see
Role of CV in the AV Space In a CV environment, the other vehicles and the traffic signal are talking to the AV: Phase state Time to phase change Real-time optimal progression speed Real-time route guidance based on signal delay Identification of hazards out of the view of sensor systems
What is happening in reality today?
Connected Vehicle Pilot Deployments Four major Federal connected vehicle pilot programs underway: Ann Arbor Connected Vehicle Test Environment (AACVTE) Tampa (THEA) Pilot Wyoming/ICF Pilot New York City Pilot Many other smaller Federal, State and Local deployments
Smart Columbus Initiative Extensive connected traffic signal system to support enhanced bus rapid transit Electrified Automated Vehicle (EAV) to serve as circulator for Easton commercial district Transit kiosks to link community to technology and ondemand services
Uber Driverless Testing, Pittsburgh Pilot of driverless vehicles with actual customers Back-up driver and researcher in vehicle at all times
Automated Shuttles Source: University of Michigan
Federally Designated AV Proving Grounds Pittsburgh/PTI Texas AV Proving Ground Partnership U.S. Army Aberdeen Test Center American Center for Mobility GoMentum Station SANDAG Iowa City ADG U. of Wisconsin Central Florida AV Partners North Carolina Turnpike
Truck Platooning Source: Peloton
Should we believe the hype?
AUTOMATED TAXIS SAID TO PROVIDE AFFORDABLE TRANSPORT FOR ALL EXTRA! EXTRA! DRIVERLESS CARS SIGNAL THE DEATH OF PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION AUTONOMOUS CARS DECLARED SOLUTION TO ALL MOBILITY PROBLEMS
S O S hiny bject yndrome
It s not just about the technology Initial AV Cost? Insurance Industry Disruption? Legal Liability? Federal and State Regulation? Auto Industry Disruption? Revenue Impacts? Acceptance of Computer Driver?
Public Acceptance 40,000 2016 Traffic Fatalities 14% Increase from 2014 If C/AV technology reduced that to 35,000 fatalities in the future 5,000 Lives Saved? OR 35,000 Lives Taken by Flawed Computers?
Mobility as a Service Paradigm Enabled Thru Automation Distributed Shared Mobility Model
Mobility as a Service Paradigm Enabled Thru Automation Efficiency is most unresolved Distributed Shared Mobility Model
Tremendous efficiency 34 opportunities for freeways
35 but this is MUCH harder
Still living in a 9-5 society
Travel Demand Vehicle Miles Traveled (Millions) 3,500,000 VMT Growth Rate: 1.6% Population Growth Rate: 0.8% 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000-1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
AV Changes in Vehicle-Miles Traveled (VMT) When driving time is regained, how far might you ride in your car to work?
Physical Street Space X = AV
=
Salesforce Tower, Indianapolis 49 Stories 905,000 Square Feet As many as 5,000 daily occupants
What happens at 5:00pm when 5,000 people catch their driverless taxi?
43 How does new mobility protect options for the elderly, disabled and economically disadvantaged? Source: The Daily Beast
Do not oversimplify the view of the future
Technology + New Mobility Trends = Opportunities for all Shared Transportation Providers
Public/Campus Transportation New opportunities with on-demand services Right-sizing service with more flexible service offerings Public-Private Partnerships (P3) to handle high cost/ low demand trips (late night, low density, etc.)
Elderly Mobility and Paratransit On-demand driverless transportation for those physically able Freeing up drivers to serve in a support capacity to passengers for assisted transportation
Downtown Parking Transition Parking for shared fleets, electrification Shuttling/transit to 48 remote staging? Increased demand for high-capacity service with more development?
Airport Airside/ Landside Transportation 49 Automation of interterminal shuttles Shuttling to remote staging for driverless vehicle services?
What can you do to prepare? Consider how your business model and customer needs may change Look for opportunities to trial new technology Embrace shift towards electrification Educate both employees and customers
Thank You Scott Shogan, P.E., PTOE Connected/Automated Vehicle Market Leader, US Advisory Services Scott.Shogan@wsp.com 313.963.2808 Twitter: @ScottEShogan wsp.com