Autonomous Vehicles: Status, Trends and the Large Impact on Commuting Barrie Kirk, P.Eng. Executive Director, Canadian Automated Vehicles Centre of Excellence Presentation to ACT Canada October 26, 2016
John Deering, Strange Brew 2
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CAVCOE 4
CAVCOE Partners 5
Agenda Autonomous Vehicles (AVs): status and deployment Trends and general impacts of AVs Impact on commuting Conclusions 6
Timeline and Predictions Now First commercial, semi-autonomous, highway-capable cars First commercial, 2nd generation, fully-automated shuttle bus services 2020 Automakers launch fully autonomous cars 2025 AV usage significant part of total Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKTs) 7
First Generation of AVs are Here Semi-autonomous cars: Tesla Model S, Infiniti Q50, Mercedes S-Class Intelligent cruise control (acceleration and braking) Lane-keeping Automatic parking Pedestrian avoidance / automatic braking Fully-autonomous, special purpose vehicles Low-speed, controlled environment 8
Navya 9
Trial of RDM s fully-automated taxis, Milton Keynes, UK 10
Komatsu: Fully-Automated Heavy Hauler 11
AV Rollout Rollout will be incremental; two versions Technology companies: Google, RDM, Navya Start with low-speed, electric, fully-automated, controlled environment Add speed, capability to drive on public roads Most major car manufacturers Add Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) to existing models: intelligent cruise control, lane-keeping, pedestrian avoidance, auto parking Add more capability and evolve to full automation 12
AVs have the potential to be much safer than human drivers 93% of collisions involve driver error Fewer Collisions Hopefully, we can reduce collisions by 80% Ottawa Citizen 13
Video processing, LiDARs, Radars 14
Crash Proof Cars There is no such thing!!! All hardware, software fails occasionally 7% of collisions have nothing to do with the driver Will happen whether a human or computer is driving AVs will be much safer than human drivers but not perfect There will be collisions, fatalities, injuries - but far fewer 15
Development Challenges Reversing Extreme weather Work zones Traffic signals AND police officer Road alterations Pedestrian prediction Facial reading Rare events 16
Regulatory and other Challenges Regulatory frameworks: Vehicle standards (Transport Canada) Highway Traffic Act or equivalent (Provincial / Territorial) Municipal planning for AVs Insurance Legal 17
Agenda Autonomous Vehicles (AVs): status and deployment Trends and general impacts of AVs Impact on commuting Conclusions 18
Impacts on Private Sector Corporate business plans Auto industry: OEMs, Tier 1 and 2s, Auto insurance Electricity generation, distribution Forest products Oil industry Parking Resource industry Taxis, rental cars Technology industry Trucking: long-haul and local 19
Direct Employment Displacement Auto-body repair Auto insurance Bus drivers Courier service drivers Driving instructors / trainers Health staff involved with organ and tissue donation Lawyers, staff involved with car collision litigation Medical staff involved in car crash victim rehabilitation Road safety professionals Taxi drivers / chauffeurs Tow-truck drivers Traffic police Transport truck drivers Trauma surgeons 20
Impacts on Government All levels / most departments Finance, economy and GDP Health-care Hydro National security Policies on technology, industry, R&D Policing Transit including transit infrastructure Transportation policies and regulations Urban planning, housing 21
Agenda Autonomous Vehicles (AVs): status and deployment Trends and general impacts of AVs Impact on commuting Conclusions 22
Automated Vehicles Connected Vehicles Electric Vehicles ACE Vehicles 23
Automated Vehicles Connected Vehicles Electric Vehicles Sharing Economy Driverless Taxis 24
Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) Aka Mobility as a service / Personalized mass transit Trend away from car ownership To use of fully-automated taxis Merging of regular taxi, Uber, car rental and transit business models Significant mode of transportation in future Call one via smartphone Slightly more expensive than premium transit ticket 25
Impact on Auto Sector AVs will be highly disruptive The auto sector will change more in the next 5-10 years than it has in the last 50 GM CEO Mary Barra Market for personally-owned cars will decrease substantially in 2020s 26
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Ford Our plan is to quickly become part of the growing transportation services market, which already accounts for $5.4 trillion in annual revenue Nearly twice as much as the global auto industry brings in each year 28
GM "A ride sharing network is the logical first place to deploy driverless technology" Pieces in place to develop ride sharing, autonomous cars Invested $500 million in ride-hailing service Lyft Acquired self-driving vehicle technology start-up Cruise Automation Continue to equip new vehicles with high-speed mobile internet connections Source: Reuters: June 1, 2016 29
Related Trends Driverless taxis will be a competitive option for commuting Convergence between automotive, taxi, car-sharing, transit business models Technology companies moving into the auto sector Apple, Google, Uber, QNX, RDM 30
Canadian Urban Transit Association Highly or fully automated vehicles have the potential to radically transform transit in the longer-term It is possible to imagine publically-owned, or shared, self-driving vehicles (akin to taxis) acting as part of an urban mobility system The transit industry must pay particular attention to these trends and develop the strategies which will enable transit systems and municipalities to take advantage of them While automated vehicles will not become the only form of transit, their position within a network of modes and services must be taken into consideration 31
Agenda Autonomous Vehicles (AVs): status and deployment Trends and general impacts of AVs Impact on commuting Conclusions 32
Conclusions AVs will lead to huge, disruptive changes to our personal lives and society In 2030, our cities and our world will look very different Key benefit: computers will be much better drivers than humans Disruptive changes to commuting and public transportation will start in the early 2020s 33
Barrie Kirk bkirk@cavcoe.com 613-271-1657 www.cavcoe.com Follow-up Latest issue of AV Update, a free monthly newsletter with news on AVs from around the world Subscription link 34