Challenges in the transition to electromobility in Sweden, Assoc. Prof. (Electric and hybrid drive systems) Department of Electric Power and Energy Systems Electrical Machines and Drives Laboratory owa@kth.se
Part 1/2: Trends (passenger car focus)
Oil price trend Significant variation in oil price during last two decades Rapid recovery following the 2008 economic recession Strong US dollar, OPEC unwilling to stabilize oil markets, oversupply, and declining demand reasons for price drop in 2015 Sources: [1] The oil crunch a wake-up call for the UK economy, Second Report of the UK Industry Taskforce of Peak Oil and Energy Security, Feb. 2010. [2] www.macrotrends.net/2516/wti-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart
CO2 emission trend Significant increase in CO2 emissions since 1960 Source: T. A. Boden, G. Marland, and R. J. Andres, Global, regional, and national fossil-fuel CO2 emissions, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, 2016.
Battery energy density trend 100 kwh battery 500 km range (Tesla S P100D) 100 kwh battery @ 125 Wh/kg 800 kg (2000) 100 kwh battery @ 200 Wh/kg 500 kg (2010) 100 kwh battery @ 270 Wh/kg 370 kg (today) Physicochemical limit: 400 Wh/kg Source: [1] J. Janek and W. G. Zeler, A solid future for battery development, Nature Energy, vol. 1, no. 9, 2016.
Battery cost trend 100 kwh battery @ 800 USD/kWh 720 ksek (2010) 100 kwh battery @ 200 USD/kWh 180 ksek (today) 100 kwh battery @ 100 USD/kWh 90 ksek (2020 hinted by Elon Musk) Sources: [1] B. Nykvist and M. Nilsson, Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles, Nature Climate Change, 5, pp. 329-332, 2015. [2] P. Fairley, Will electric vehicles finally succeed?, MIT Technology Review, Jan/Feb, 2011. [3] BatPac version 3.0, Argonne National Laboratory, Dec. 2015.
Vehicle fleet trends During 2010-2015, the no. of EVs+PHEVs almost doubled every year Today, around 1 billion passenger cars and maybe 2 billion at 2035 Source: [1] Global EV outlook 2016, OECD/IEA 2016.
Vehicle fleet trends Global automotive executive survey Yearly survey since 1998 2018 survey: 907 automotive executives from 43 countries Year 2020 2% 8% Year 2030 Year 2040 21% 25% 25% 30% ICE Hybrid BEV ICE Hybrid BEV FCV ICE Hybrid BEV FCV 24% 24% 26% 90% 24% Source: [1] https://gaes.kpmg.de/ Market share
Vehicle fleet trend Family with three children Today: conventional petrol ICE Rather spend larger share of income on housing costs than on an environmentally friendly vehicle Next car, likely a used diesel
Summary of part 1/2 Battery costs have dropped significantly during the last five years or so The electrification of the vehicle fleet is starting now EVs and PHEVs will (at least) be a small, but significant, share of the worlds vehicle fleet within 10 years
Part 2/2: Threats
Neodymium oxide price trend During Jan-June 2011, the price of Neodymium increased five times From June-August 2017, the price doubled (not included in the graph). Sources: [1] Metal pages (2001-2012), [2] Industrial minerals (2012-2014) [3] Statista - The Statistics Portal, Nov. 2016 (2014-2025)
Swedish automotive manufacturers How Volvo Cars, CEVT and NEVS will succeed will depend on how the Geely brand and NEVS succeed in China To what extent can this be affected in Sweden?
Global automotive executive survey 2018 74 % of executives believe the share of vehicles manufactured in Western Europe will be less than 5 % by 2030, with production moving in large part to Asia Leading e-mobility company by 2025 1. BMW (21%) 6. Ford (5%) 2. Tesla Motors (15%) 7. VW (5%) 3. BYD (7%) 8. Hyundai (4%) 4. Toyota (5%) 9. Daimler (4%) 5. Honda (5%) 10. GM (3%) If production takes place in Asia but engineering remains For how long? Sources: [1] https://gaes.kpmg.de/ [2] https://home.kpmg.com/xx/en/home/media/press-releases/2018/01/speeding-towardauto-industry-consolidation.html
Students admitted to Civ.Ing Elektroteknik 1998-2007: Antal antagna 2008-2017: Förstahandssökande How can Swedish electrical engineering remain competitive if Swedish universities continue to fail to recruit a sufficient number of good Swedish students? Source: [1] www.uhr.se
29 graduated MSc theses 5% 24% 28% 45% 50% Sweden Europe except Sweden Outside Europe Sweden Europe except Sweden Outside Europe 48% Nationality (29/29 students) Location of first job (22/29 replies) While Sweden benefits substantially of international students starting working in Sweden, is it enough?
An academic s reality in today 21 HP in university pedagogics Constructive alignment Flip the classroom Clickers Teaching in a subject perspective How can we attract good Swedish students if we don t put more resources on course content development?
Summary of part 2/2 How (Chinese and German owned) Swedish automotive will succeed is strongly dependent on China s actions How Geely (and NEVS) succeeds in China Swedish graduated electrical engineers are vital when the vehicle fleet should be electrified How can they remain competitive if our universities fail to recruit sufficiently many good students? Advanced courses provide necessary competence to graduated engineers How can these courses remain updated if too little resources are spent on actual course development?