Transportation and Energy Randall Guensler Michael D. Meyer, P.E. Georgia Transportation Institute January 2013 Ford Model T (1909 Model) (The 4 Seater Tin Lizzie ) Source: Ed Clark, Time Life Pictures 1
Mass Production and Mass Consumption of the Ford Model T Samuel Colt brings mass production to the Model T assembly line in Highland Park, MI 93 minutes to assemble each vehicle Ford produces 1 million vehicles in 1914 $600.00/vehicle ($13,000.00 in 2010 dollars) 27% of 1914 Annual HH Income Between 1908 and 1927 (pre stock market crash) 15,000,000 Model T s are manufactured 50% of US families own or have access to an auto Evolution of System Infrastructure and Resulting Land Use Patterns Walking Horsecar Era (1800 1900) Electric Streetcar Era (1890 1925) Recreational Automobile Era (1914 1945) Freeway and Beltway Era (1945 Present) Source: Adams, 1970 Source: Muller, 1998 Trans/AQ 2012 4 2
Walk and animal-drawn transportation Animal-drawn mass transit lines Powered mass transit lines Original central city High-speed, longer distance transit lines Motorized vehicles with ubiquitous accessibility Land Use Changes Higher vehicle speeds reduced travel times, opening development of residential areas outside of urban area Users appear to have constant daily travel time budgets Low density development has resulted along freeways and beltways (cannot support transit activity) Suburbs and beltway regions began attracting jobs, increasing suburb to suburb commutes Decentralizationhas significantly increasedvmt Trans/AQ 2012 6 3
Total US Population (millions) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Source: Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 31, 2011 Trans/AQ 2012 7 Past and Future Urban and Rural Population as Percent of Total Source: TRB Special Report 220; A Look Ahead: Year 2020 Trans/AQ 2012 8 4
Total US Workers (millions) 150 100 50 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Source: Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 31, 2011 Trans/AQ 2012 9 Household Structure Family Household Single Household 100% 82% 73% 71% 80% 69% 73% Percent 60% 40% 20% 18% 27% 29% 31% 27% 0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Trans/AQ 2012 10 5
Workers Per Family Source: Meyer, 1998 and Census 2000 Trans/AQ 2012 11 Persons Per Household 3.5 3 2.5 Persons/HH 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 31, 2011 Trans/AQ 2012 12 6
Total US Licensed Drivers 250 200 Drivers (millions) 150 100 50 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Source: Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 31, 2011 Trans/AQ 2012 13 Total US Vehicle Ownership 250 200 Number of Vehicles 150 (millions) 100 50 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Source: Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 31, 2011 Trans/AQ 2012 14 7
US Share of Worldwide Automobile Ownership Number of US automobiles (2010) 131,000,000 1980 US share of worldwide automobiles 38.0% 1990 US share of worldwide automobiles 32.3% 2000 US share of worldwide automobiles 23.3% 2010 US share of worldwide automobiles 16.8% Source: Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 31, 2011 (with 2005 and Trans/AQ 2012 2008) 15 US Share of Worldwide Truck and Bus Ownership Number of trucks/buses (2010) 110,000,000 1980 US share of total truck & bus registrations 37.7% 1990 US share of total truck & bus registrations 32.7% 2000 US share of total truck & bus registrations 42.1% 2010 US share of total truck & bus registrations 39.3% Trans/AQ 2012 Source: Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 31, 2011 (with 2005 and 2008) 16 8
Vehicles Per Licensed Driver Source: Transportation Energy Data Book, 2009 Trans/AQ 2012 17 Aging Vehicle Fleet Average age of Automobiles 1995 vehicle fleet 8.4 years 2009 vehicle fleet 10.6 years Average age of Light Duty Trucks 1995 vehicle fleet 8.3 years 2009 vehicle fleet 9.6 years Trans/AQ 2012 18 9
Total Vehicle Miles Traveled 3000 2500 2000 Miles (Billions) 1500 1000 500 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 2.97 trillion miles per year Source: Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 31, 2011 Work Transportation Mode 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Drove Alone Carpooled Public Transit Worked at Home Walked Bicycled Source: Transportation Energy Data Book, 2005 10
Combination Truck Truck Miles 180 160 140 Truck-Miles 120 (Billions) 100 80 60 40 20 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 97% growth from 1980 to 2000 4% annual growth rate from 1960 to 2000 Source: National Transportation Statistics, 2001 Trans/AQ 2012 21 US Energy and World Crude Petroleum Consumption US oil consumption 20.7 million barrels/day in 2005 18.3 million barrels/day in 2011 World oil consumption 84.1 million barrels/day in 2005 87.3 million barrels/day in 2011 Consumption share: World population is about 7.05 billion persons US population is about 315 million persons Roughly 4.5% of world s population consumes 21% of oil Down from ~25% a few years ago Source: Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 31, 2011 11
National Energy Policies: 1933-1969 Roosevelt, Franklin D., 1933-45: 1939 presidentially appointed National Resources Planning Board recommended support of research to promote "efficiency, economy, and shifts in demand to low-grade fuels and that a national energy resources policy should be prepared that to look beyond policy directed at specific fuels. Truman, Harry, 1945-53. 53 1950-5252 presidentially appointed Materials Policy Commission (known as the Paley Commission after its Chairman William S. Paley) concluded that the U.S. did not possess all material and mineral resources necessary and called for an assessment and scientific plan for utilization of natural resources. Eisenhower, Dwight, 1953-61. 1955 Report from the Cabinet Advisory Committee on Energy Supplies and Resources Policy. Kennedy, John F., 1961-63. 1961 National Fuels and Energy Study (commissioned by the U.S. Senate). Johnson, Lyndon, 1963-69. 1964 Resources Policies for a Great Society Report to the President by the Task Force on Natural Resources. Post Oil Embargo National Energy Policies Nixon, Richard, 1969-74. 1974 Project Independence Blueprint. Ford, Gerald, 1974-77. 1975 Energy Resources Council report reflected in the President s omnibus proposal, The Energy Independence Act of 1975. Carter, Jimmy, 1977-81. 1977 National Energy Plan. Reagan, Ronald, 1981-89. 1987 Energy Security report. Bush, George H.W., 1989-93. 1991 National Energy Strategy. Clinton, William J., 1993-2001. 1997 President s Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology, Federal Energy R&D for the Challenges of the 21 st Century. Bush, George, 2001-present. 2001 Report of the National Energy Policy Development Group, Reliable, Affordable, and Environmentally Sound Energy for America s Future. 12
Changing priorities of energy policy Energy policy is largely a derivative policy with its roots in economic, national security, and environmental policies with shifting priorities among those policies: 1960s: Economic, Environment, Security 1970s: Environment, Economic, Security 1980s: Economic, Security, Environment, 1990s: Environment, Security, Economic Current (?): Security, Economic, Environment 13
Crude Oil Prices ($2011 Constant Dollars) $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 31, 2011 32 Energy Crisis 40 50% of conventional world oil resources are gone However: Conventional coal and natural gas resources are large 20x more energy than has been consumed Non conventional carbon resources can yield 50x Technology, cost, and the environment are the issues More than 40% of US energy comes from petroleum and 68% of that goes to transportation We have to import 60% of our petroleum needs The transportation system is 93 97% dependent on oil This is a transportation crisis and security dilemma 14
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Vehicle Ownership in Selected Countries (2003) A Thousand new cars per day in Beijing Source: H. Gruenspecht, EIA and EIA/OECD, 2006 16
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Fuel Economy Values of a 2010 Model Year Midsize Car from PSAT Simulations http://www.transportation.anl.gov/research/hybrids/psat PRO.html 19
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The Rise of Hybrid-Electric Drive Vehicles (HEVs) www.pi.energy.gov/documents/sperling_ev_china_09-09.pdf Transportation System Driving Forces Technology Mode characteristics Fuel characteristics Powertrain systems System efficiency Infrastructure Guideways Terminals Controls Support services Policy Resource allocation Income and expenditures Operational policies Restrictions, tolls, etc. Equity issues Benefits and costs Economics Cost of fuel Cost of materials Cost of labor Cost of Financing Value of time Trans/AQ 2012 67 24